tourism climate change challenge - norsk friluftsliv...the challenge, tourism is a part of it Š...
TRANSCRIPT
© Carlo Aall
Tourism climate change challengeSeminar Norsk Friluftsliv 11. mai 2017
Eivind BrendehaugResearcher Vestlandsforsking
Outline
� Do we have a problem?
� Tourism contribution to climate change
� Consequences for “friluftsliv”
� Tourism policy and climate change
� Tourism and “friluftsliv” for the future
The challenge, tourism is a part of it� Main messages in the fifth main
report (2013): Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 for all scenarios
� Limiting climate change will require substantial reductions of GHG emissions from all sectors, also tourism
� Tourism is characterized by rapid emission growth, doubling of emissions by 2035 expected (compared to 2010)
� Rapid growth in air travel, car and accommodation capacity
The «adjustment-window» on mitigation
Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/full/nature08017.html and recalculations done by Helge Drange (http://www.vestforsk.no/filearchive/helge-drange-presentasjon.pdf)
Consequenses of postponing global GHG gass reduction means needed to achive a global goal of maximum 2 degrees global temperature rize
If we wait until 2025by implementing new GHG reduction means other than what exists today, we have to implement means that allows for 90 % or more reduction per year; which means we then have to move from “adjusting” to “transforming” societyG
loba
l CH
G-e
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sion
s (G
t-C)
Tourism contribution to climate change
Actual and expected growth in global GHG emissions from tourism
Gössling and Peters, 2014: Assessing tourism global environmental impact 1900-2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism
Business as usual
What contributes the most within “tourism”?
Hille, J., Aall, C., Klepp, I.G. (2007): Miljøbelastninger fra norsk fritidsforbruk – en kartlegging. VF-rapport 1/07. Sogndal
Direct and indirect energy use embedded in tourism consumption inland and abroad by Norwegians (2005)
Hotels etc
Travel by private care
Travel by air
Public transportation
Food
«Experiences»Travel to the destination is not up for discussion
Også friluftslivet bidreg til klimagassutslepp
Spania, Hellas, Italia, Jordan og Nord-Kypros er populære steder å reise på fottur til, men også Kilimanjaro, Nepal og Island har høy stjerne, forteller Moland.https://www.nrk.no/livsstil/na-har-det-blitt-supertrendy-a-
reise-pa-gaferie-1.13477984
Understanding technology: relative vs absolute emission growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Glo
bal a
viat
ion
emis
sion
s (M
ton/
yr)
Ener
gy In
tens
ity E
I (M
J/as
k)
Year of market introduction
Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency
IPCC values Sigmoidal regression A380
Piston powered airliners Additional jet airliners A350XWB
B787 Global aviation emissions
Peeters, P., Higham, J., Kutzner, D., Cohen, S. and Gössling, S. 2015. Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy? Transportation Research Part D, submitted
Consequences for «friluftsliv» and tourism
And the climate has already changed!Number of days with good skiing conditions in “Nordmarka” outside of Oslo
www.met.no
Snow reliability – Business as usual 2030s
Project: Climateadaptation in tourism. VestlandsforskingR. Steiger
Ski slopes in Norway
Loss of landscape qualities
Source: http://www.skogoglandskap.no/filearchive/cultour.pdf
Loss of landscape qualities from “more forest” due to climate change
Loss of glaciers, e.g Briksdalen and Nigardsbreen
Tourism policy and climate change� The Norwegian 2007 tourism strategy:
� «Transport er en av de viktigste miljøutfordringene for mange deler av reiselivet (…) Reiselivet må bidra til at Norges ambisiøse målsetninger om å redusere utslipp av klimagasser nås».
� The Norwegian 2012 tourism strategy: «Reiselivsnæringen bør (…) tilstrebe lave utslipp av klimagasser (…)».
� Meld. St. 19 (2016–2017):Opplev Norge – unikt og eventyrlig� « (…) hyppigere forekomster av ekstremvær som flom og sterk vind». � «Utslipp fra (…) flytrafikken er redusert pga mer energieffektive fly. Økt trafikk har
likevel gjort at klimagassutslippene fra luftfart har økt samlet sett� «Bruk av mer miljøvennlig drivstoff og energieffektive skip er nøkkelfaktorer for å
redusere utslipp fra skipsfart».� Oppsummering: «Regjeringen vil (….) arbeide for at cruisenæringen reduserer utslipp
av klimagasser og sin lokale forurensning».
� Why this lack of consistence? A mean (economy) has become aim!
Sustainable development two aims:
Ecological conditions Social conditions
Sustainable development
Ecologicalsustainability:
Maintain all ecological life-
support systems
Social sustainabilityMaintain the basicneeds of everybodytoday (global justice) and for futuregenerations(generational justice)
Tourism and friluftsliv for the future:
Travel shorter, slowler and more seldom (but you can stay longer)
Makes the trip an experience!
The importance of transport means
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Tog Noreg
Buss
Passasjerbil (diesel)
Passasjerbil (bensin)
Boeing 737 utland
Boeing 737 innland
Dash 8–100
Vekta gjennomsnitt cruise
Tran
spor
tmid
del
Gram CO2 utslipp per passasjerkilometer
Gössling, S., Aall, C., Vik, M. L., Engeset, A. B., Ekström, F., Brendehaug, E., & Walnum, H.-J. (2010). Sustainable Destination Norway 2025 Rapport. Sogndal: Vestlands
12 46 57
1116
1910
Train Bus Car Air Cruise
Emissions in kg CO2/trip
Weighted overall average: 323 kg CO2/trip
126 218 300 370
821
2358
< 500 km 500-999 km 1,000-1,499 km 1,500-1,999 km 2,000-9,999 km 10,000 km +
Air trips by distance class German speaking population
3.61 m1,072 km
5.44 m1,528 km
32.11 m1,298 km
27.13 m3,175 km
0.97 m
Gössling, S., Lohmann, M., Grimm, B. (2017). German holiday transport patterns: Insights for climate policy, submitted
Emissions in kg CO2/trip
Trips from 2000 km
mostnumbers
Cruise: few trips but largest
emission volume
million trips
Return distance (km)
Emission factor(kg CO2/pkm)
Emissions per trip (kg)***
CO2 emissions
(Mt) %
Train 3.61 1,072 0,011 12 0.043 0.2
Bus 5.44 1,528 0,030 46 0.249 1.1
Car 32.11 1,298 0,044 57 1.834 8.1
Air <500 km 0.2 690 0,183 126 0.025 0.1
500-999 1.46 1,558 0,137 218 0.311 1.4
1,000-1,499 6.61 2,582 0,116 300 1.979 8.7
1,500-1,999 5.04 3,429 0,108 370 1.858 8.2
2,000-9,999 12.47 8,289 0.099 821 10.238 45.0
10,000 km> 1.35 23,817 0.099 2,358 3.183 14.0
Cruise 0.97 - 169 kg/day 1,910 2.502 11.0
Ship* 0.34 1,000 0.350 350 0.119 0.5
Other** 0.65 804 0.005 4 0.003 0.0
Total 70.3 - - 323 22.733 100,0
CO2-emissions by main transport mode, 2014
Gössling, S., Lohmann, M., Grimm, B. (2017). German holiday transport patterns: Insights for climate policy, submitted
Conclusion� Carbon intensive travel, mainly air, car and cruise
contribute most to GHG
� Rapid growth in long distances and travel frequency (habits) increase GHG emission
� Climate change creates consequences to tourism and «friluftsliv»
� With increasing long travel tourists the tourism industry has been more vulnerable for an offensive climate policy
� National and international policy measures need to stimulate:� Shorter and slower travel, and more seldom (but you can stay
longer)� If not, we undermine the basis of tourism and “friluftsliv”