tourism forecast, 2019 - business.vic.gov.au€¦ · the overall growth outlook for tourism spend...

TOURISM FORECAST, 2019

Data published by Tourism Research Australia, September 2019

To note: Victorian estimates are derived by applying national growth rates for visitors and expenditure.

Expenditure references in this report are in nominal terms.

Tourism Forecasts – Victoria Snapshot

Total tourism spend

$49.6 billion by 2028-29

+4.8% AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

+4.7% 2019-20 y/y growth

Domestic overnight spend

$22.6 billion by 2028-29

+3.4% AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

+3.2% 2019-20 y/y growth

International overnight spend

$19.0 billion by 2028-29

+8.1% AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

+8.7% 2019-20 y/y growth

National outbound departures

16.0 million by 2028-29

+3.6% AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

+4.0% 2019-20 y/y growth

2Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG: Average Annual Growth

Overall, national TRA forecasts suggest that the outlook for Victoria’s tourism industry for the next few years is positive. Growth will be led by the international segment, with a more modest outlook for the domestic sector. Key projections for total tourism spend, international overnight spend, domestic overnight spend and overseas departures are noted below.

3

The overall growth outlook for tourism spend is solid, driven by the international sectorTotal tourism spend in Victoria is forecast to grow from an estimated $31.0 in 2018-19 to $49.6 billion in 2028-29, with averageannual growth of 4.8 per cent over the next decade (in nominal terms). Over this period, growth will be led by international spend, which is expected to reach $19.0 billion in 2028-29, generating 56 per cent of total tourism spend growth in Victoria andcontributing a 38 per cent share of total tourism spend (10 percentage points higher than its share in 2018-19).

Tourism Forecast, 2019 – key takeaways

Chinese visitation is projected to continue to grow, but at a softer, more sustainable paceChina is forecast to remain the largest contributor of international spend growth to Victoria over the next decade, generating 22 per cent of total spend growth to the state. However, growth from China is expected to transition to a more sustainable trajectory as the market matures, with a significant downward revision for China from the previous forecast. Softening growthis driven by slowing economic conditions and the potential impacts of ongoing trade tensions with the United States, as well as a moderation of aviation capacity growth.

Asia is expected to outperform other international markets with India, Malaysia and Indonesia gaining momentum in growth Overall, Asia will contribute 45 per cent of total tourism spend growth in Victoria over the next decade with spend from the region rising from $6.3 billion to $14.5 billion by 2028-29. This will be driven by growing economic prosperity and the rise of the middle class across the region. Key emerging growth markets include India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Western source markets such as USA, United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand are expected to grow solidly The growth prospects from traditional source markets are mixed. Ongoing uncertainty around a post-Brexit economy in the UK is expected to deliver modest growth. In comparison, growth prospects from the USA are strong, driven by expected improvement in the US economy and the strengthening US dollar relative to the Australian currency. New Zealand is expected to increase modestly with overnight expenditure growth of 4.2 per cent per annum over the next decade (to 2028-29).

The lower Australian dollar will make Australia more competitive with other overseas destinations and temper outbound travel growth. The growth outlook for domestic tourism is moderate.The softening Australian dollar is likely to make Australia more appealing relative to other international destinations and willcontribute to moderate growth in domestic tourism and subdued growth in outbound travel. Australian economic growth is expected to remain below historical levels, with limited discretionary spend growth in the short–term. As such, domestic overnight tourism spend growth over the next decade is expected to be modest (+3.4 per cent per annum to 2028-29).

Positive drivers

Tourism Forecasts, 2019

Downside risks• Lower Australian currency value will make Australia more

cost competitive relative to other international destinations and will also drive international spend growth in the coming years.

• The low Australian dollar may also soften outbound travel by Australians and may facilitate substitution from overseas destinations to domestic travel.

• Continued expansion in emerging Asian economies like India, Malaysia and Indonesia will drive growth in international spend from the region. This is fuelled by increasing prosperity and the continuing transition of millions of people into consumer oriented, middle-class populations in the region.

• Upturn in economic conditions in the US driven by very low unemployment, may bolster this market.

• Low interest rates and income tax offsets are expected to assist economic recovery in Australia in the coming years which may support domestic travel growth as discretionary income levels are restored.

• Growth in the sharing economy (i.e. Airbnb) may help address supply gaps in domestic accommodation and improve the competitive pricing of the sector.

• Continued growth is expected in inbound holiday travel and travel to visit friends and relatives.

• Weakening global economic outlook, with softening conditions across both advanced and emerging economies.

• Slower economic growth in China as the economy transitions from investment and export-led growth, to one more driven by consumption and services.

• Ongoing trade tensions between the US-China, which may further soften economic growth in China.

• Moderating global aviation capacity growth, particularly in China. This is due to weakening demand for international air travel and higher oil prices which can reduce airline profit margins.

• Uncertainty around post-Brexit political and economic conditions in the UK and across the European Union.

• Subdued Australian economic growth predicted to remain below historical levels in the short-term.

• Discretionary spend by Australians limited by sluggish wage growth.

• Domestic travel costs likely to remain high, especially for accommodation.

• Low growth in domestic air capacity could result in higher domestic airfares.

• Weakening global oil demand, trade tensions and disruptions in oil producing countries (i.e. Iran, Venezuela and Libya), may increase petrol/jet fuel prices.

• Slow growth in business and employment-related travel due to weakening global economic conditions.

4

Total Tourism Expenditure - Forecasts

By applying national growth rates, total tourism expenditure in Victoria is estimated to reach $49.6 billion by 2028-29 (in nominal terms).

Total tourism spend is forecast to increase 4.7 per cent to $32.5 billion in 2019-20. The 10-year average growth rate is forecast at 4.8 per cent per annum.

The Visitor Economy Strategy outlined an aspiration to grow total tourism expenditure in Victoria to $36.5 billion by 2024-25, which requires an expenditure growth rate of 5.3 per cent per annum over the life of the Strategy.

Forecast estimates indicate that total tourism expenditure in Victoria should reach $41.3 billion in nominal terms by 2024-25, $4.8 billion above the Strategy target. The latest result of $30.0 billion was recorded for year ending March 2019, reflecting growth of 8.8 per annum over the past five years (year ending March 2014 to 2019).

To note: These estimates are derived by applying national forecast growth rates to Victorian estimates (these are typically conservative). However, Victoria has been achieving growth rates above the national average in recent years. Therefore, if Victoria does continue to out-perform the national average in future years, these estimates may underestimate the likely growth scenario for Victoria.

Total Visitor Expenditure GrowthThe forecast growth of total expenditure in Victoria is noted in the chart below combining domestic daytrip, domestic overnight and international overnight expenditure (noted in nominal terms), alongside the Visitor Economy Strategy expenditure target for 2025.

5.Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

Chart 1. Total tourism spend in Victoria – forecast vs Visitor Economy Strategy target

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Total Tourism Expenditure - Forecast ($b nominal)

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Total Tourism Expenditure - Forecasts

By applying national growth rates, total tourism expenditure in Victoria is estimated to reach $49.6 billion by 2028-29 (in nominal terms).

International expenditure is predicted to contribute the lion’s share of the overall growth in total tourism expenditure in Victoria over the 10 years to 2028-29 (56 per cent).

China is forecast to contribute 22 per cent to total expenditure growth in Victoria by 2028-29. This is followed by India (7 per cent), with Other Asia contributing 15 per cent to total tourism spend growth.

Western Hemisphere markets are forecast to contribute 8 per cent of overall growth in total tourism spend.

Domestic overnight and daytrip expenditure is estimated to contribute 44 per cent to total expenditure growth.

Total Visitor Spend Mix The contribution of domestic daytrip, domestic overnight and international overnight expenditure to total expenditure in Victoria is noted in the chart below (in nominal terms). The majority of tourism spend growth in Victoria is predicted to come from the international sector over the next decade.

6Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms. Figures may not add due to rounding.Victorian estimates for June 2019 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 growth applied. Based on visitors aged 15 years and over.

Chart 2. Total tourism spend in Victoria –forecast contribution to spend growth

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DomesticON & Day44%

+$8.3b

China22%

+$4.1b

India7%

+$1.3b

Other Asia15%

+$2.8b

WesternHemisphere

8%+$1.6b

Other Countries

3%+$489m

International56%

+$10.3b

$31.0

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International Overnight Visitors - Forecast (m)International Overnight Visitors - Actual (m)

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International Overnight Expenditure - Actual (b)

4.9% p.a.

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Tourism Forecasts - International

The inbound market is forecast to continue leading overall tourism growth in Victoria.

It is estimated that Victoria will receive 3.3 million international visitors in 2019-20 up 5.0 per cent from 2018-19 estimates. International visitors in Victoria are expected to reach 5.0 million by 2028-29, with average annual growth of 4.9 per cent per annum.

.

Growth 2019-20

AAG growth to 2028-29

Chart 3. International overnight tourism spend in Victoria Chart 4. International overnight tourism arrivals in Victoria

(YE March 2014-19) Latest 5 year AAG*: 12.7% p.a.

International overnight visitor spend in Victoria is expected to increase by 8.7 per cent from 2018-19 to 2019-20 to reach $9.5 billion. International overnight spend in Victoria is expected to reach $19.0 billion by 2028-29, with average annual growth of 8.1 per cent per annum.

Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

7

Growth 2019-20



Victorian estimates for June 2019 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 growth applied. Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG: Average Annual Growth

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International Nights - Forecast (m)

International Nights - Actual (m)

It is estimated that international tourism nights in Victoria will reach 80.8 million in 2019-20, an increase of 4.2 per cent from 2018-19 estimates. International nights in Victoria are expected to reach 130.7 million by 2028-29, with average annual growth of 5.4 per cent over the next decade.

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Tourism Forecasts - InternationalVictoria’s forecast international nights growth over the next decade is above the national average.

TRA predicts the number of international visitor nights in Victoria to increase by 4.2 per cent from 2018-19 to 2019-20. Victoria’s forecast growth is slightly lower in the immediate year than key competitors Queensland (4.7 per cent) and New South Wales (4.6 per cent), as well as the national average (4.8 per cent). However, international nights in Victoria are predicted to increase at a slightly higher average annual growth rate than key competitors over the next decade. Forecast growth from 2018-19 is expected to be 5.4 per cent per annum compared to national nights growth of 5.1 per cent per annum.

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Chart 5. International tourism nights in Victoria Chart 6. International tourism nights - comparative growth rates by key competitor states

8

Growth 2019-20


Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates per market to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.



5.4% p.a.

4.2%

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5.3% p.a4.7% 4.9% p.a4.8%

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VIC NSW QLD National

AAG *= Average Annual Growth

Asia is forecast to continue to outperform growth from other international regions over the next decade, brought about by increasing prosperity and the continuing growth of the middle-class. Asia is predicted to account for an estimated 80 per cent of international visitor spend growth in Victoria over the next decade, with China making a 40.3 per cent contribution, followed by India (12.5 per cent) and Malaysia (4.9 per cent).

Total spend generated by Asian visitors in Victoria is expected to increase from an estimated $6.3 billion in 2018-19 to $14.5 billion in 2028-29. Countries making the largest contributions to growth from Asia will be: • China – up 8.5% p.a. from $3.3 billion in 2018-19 to $7.5 billion in

2028-29.• India – up 12.4% p.a. from $578 million in 2018-19 to $1.9 billion in

2028-29.• Malaysia – up 8.1% p.a. from $428 million in 2018-19 to $930 million

in 2028-29.

In comparison, growth prospects for Western markets markets are mixed, with these markets forecast to contribute 15 per cent of international growth to 2028-29. Visitor spend from the United States is expected to increase solidly by 7.9 per cent per annum to more than double from $400m in 2018-19 to $856 million in 2028-29 (contributing 4.4 per cent of spend growth). Spend growth from the United Kingdom will remain moderate due to ongoing uncertainty around Brexit, with predicted growth of 4.9 per cent per annum to reach $647 million by 2028-29 (contributing 2.4 per cent of growth).

Contribution to visitor spend growth

Chart 7. Contribution to forecast VIC expenditure growth 2018-19 to 2028-29

Victorian forecast estimates for spend are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

9


Victorian estimates for June 2019 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 growth applied. Figures may not add due to rounding.

0.7%0.7%1.0%1.1%1.4%1.8%1.8%1.9%2.4%2.4%2.9%

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GermanySouth Korea

FranceJapan

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China China is forecast to maintain its position as Victoria’s most important market in the next decade and is expected to grow its contribution to spend from 37.9 per cent in 2018-19 to 39.2 per cent in 2028-29, generating an estimated $7.5 billion in visitor spend in Victoria by 2028-29.

Over the longer term, the Indian visitor market is predicted to grow in significance to Victoria, with its share of international spend forecast to increase from 6.6 per cent in 2018-19 to 9.8 per cent in 2028-29, with expected total spend of $1.9 billion in 2028-29.

In comparison, the relative contribution to international spend of some Western markets is expected to decline. The UK’s share of international visitor spend in Victoria is expected to decrease from 4.6 per cent in 2018-19 to 3.4 per cent in 2028-29.

Forecasts indicate that the contribution of NZ spend to total international overnight spend in Victoria will also decrease from 4.6 per cent in 2018-19 to 3.1 per cent in 2028-29, with the market predicted to contribute 1.9 per cent of international spend growth in Victoria over the next decade.

The relative contribution of some Asian markets to international spend is also forecast to decline including Singapore (down from a 3.8 per cent share in 2018-19 to 3.0 per cent in 2028-29) and Hong Kong (down from a 2.7 per cent share in 2018-19 to 2.2 per cent in 2028-29).

Changing share of visitor spend in Victoria

Chart 8. Composition of Victoria’s international expenditure (2018-19 vs 2028-29)

Victorian forecast estimates for spend are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

10


% share of VIC international expenditure

2018-2019 share (estimate)

2028-2029 share (forecast)

Victorian estimates for June 2019 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 growth applied. Figures may not add due to rounding.

$7.5b#

# Forecast overnight spend in VIC estimate 2028-29

$1.9b#

$930m#

$856m#

$647m#

$599m#

$578m#

$419m#

$375m#

$567m#

International spend growth by key markets, 2019-20 and 2028-2029

$856m by 2028-29

8.1% p.a. 10 year AAG growth 2018-19 to 2028-29

8.7% 19-20 growth

8.4% to 2019-20

7.9% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

United States United Kingdom China

India

Japan

Hong Kong

Malaysia

New ZealandSingapore

$647m by 2028-29

4.1% to 2019-20

4.9% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

$7.5b by 2028-29

8.6% to 2019-20

$375m by 2028-29

14.8% to 2019-20

$1.9b by 2028-29

17.1% to 2019-20$419m by 2028-29

4.1% to 2019-20

$930m by 2028-29

10.8% to 2019-20

$578m by 2028-29

4.6% to 2019-20

$599m by 2028-29

5.1% to 2019-20

Victorian forecast estimates for spend derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

* % contribution to overall spend growth in Victoria 2018-19 to 2028-29

4.4%* 2.4%* 40.3%*

12.5%*

4.9%*

1.8%*

1.8%*

1.9%*2.4%*

11Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG: Average Annual Growth

Indonesia

$567m by 2028-29

9.1% to 2019-20

2.9%*

8.5% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

6.9% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

12.4% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

6.0% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

8.0% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

8.1% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

5.7% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

4.2% p.a. AAG 2018-19 to 2028-29

6.7% p.a.

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19.3%

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Other

Education

Business

VFR

Holiday

Year-on-year 2018-19 to 2019-20Average Annual Growth 2018-19 to 2028-29

Forecast Nights in Victoria by Purpose


Growth in international visitor nights in Victoria for 2018-19 to 2019-20 is forecast to be positive for all main purpose segments: Other (+19.3 per cent), which includes employment-related travel, Holiday (+5.9 per cent), Business (+3.7 per cent) and Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) (+2.0 per cent). The Education segment is forecast to have the lowest growth (+1.2 per cent) in the immediate term.

Over the next decade to 2028-29, the highest growth is expected from the Other (+6.7 per cent per annum) purpose category, followed by Holiday (+5.8 per cent per annum), VFR (+5.1 per cent per annum), Education (+4.9 per cent per annum) and Business (+4.6 per cent per annum).

Chart 9. International tourism nights in Victoria - by Purpose

12Source: Victorian nights growth rates from Tourism Forecasts 2019.

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Tourism Forecasts - DomesticModest increases are forecast for domestic tourism in Australia.

Domestic overnight visitors are forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent over the next year to reach 28.9 million by 2019-20. Domestic overnight visitors in Victoria are expected to reach 32.0 million by 2028-29, with modest average annual growth of 1.2 per cent per annum.

Domestic overnight visitor spend in Victoria is expected to increase by 3.2 per cent from 2018-19 to 2019-20 to reach $16.7 billion. Domestic overnight spend is expected to reach $22.6 billion by 2028-29, with moderate average annual growth forecast of 3.4 per cent per annum.

Chart 10. Domestic overnight spend in Victoria Chart 11. Domestic overnight visitors in Victoria

Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

13

Growth 2019-20AAG growth to 2028-29

Growth 2019-20



(YE March 2014-19) Latest 5 year AAG*: 8.0% p.a. (YE March 2014-19) Latest 5 year AAG*: 8.1% p.a.

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$19.4

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Tourism Forecasts – key messages

It is estimated that domestic visitor nights in Victoria will reach 83.3 million in 2019-20, an increase of 2.8 per cent from 2018-19 estimates. Domestic visitor nights in Victoria are expected to reach 94.1 million by 2028-29, with average annual growth of 1.5 per cent over the next decade.

Tourism Forecasts - Domestic

Domestic nights in Victoria forecast to grow above the national average

It is estimated that domestic visitor nights in Victoria will grow at a rate above the national average and key competitors from 2018-19 to 2019-20 (2.8 per cent for Victoria compared to 1.4 per cent nationally). Over the longer term (2018-19 to 2028-29) domestic visitor nights in Victoria (+1.5 per cent per annum) are expected to increase marginally above the national average (+1.2 per cent per annum) and key competitors.

Chart 12. Domestic tourism nights in Victoria Chart 13. Forecast growth in domestic nights– comparative growth rates by key competitor states

14

Growth 2019-20


Victorian forecast estimates for spend and visitors are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data.

Victorian estimates for June 2019 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 growth applied Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG: Average Annual Growth


2.8%1.5% p.a.

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Year-on-year 2018-19 to 2019-20Average Annual Growth 2018-19 to 2028-29

Forecast Nights in Victoria by Purpose

Tourism Forecasts - Domestic

Growth in domestic visitor nights in Victoria for 2018-19 to 2019-20 is forecast to be positive for all purpose segments: the Other (+9.9 per cent) segment, which includes Education and Employment, is forecast to have the highest growth (albeit from a small base). This is followed by VFR (+3.4 per cent) and Holiday (+2.5 per cent), while the Business segment is predicted to remain relatively flat (+0.2 per cent), in line with softening economic conditions in Australia.

Over the longer term (2018-19 to 2028-29), the strongest growth is expected from the Business purpose category as the economy improves (+2.4 per cent per annum). This is followed by the Other (+2.3 per cent per annum) and VFR (+1.5 per cent per annum) segments, with only marginal growth expected from the Holiday category (+0.9 per cent per annum).

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Chart 14. Growth in domestic visitor nights in Victoria - by Purpose

Source: Victorian nights growth rates from Tourism Forecasts 2019.

Domestic daytrip spend in Victoria is expected to increase at a moderate rate of 2.7 per cent from 2018-19 to 2019-20 to reach $6.3 billion. Domestic daytrip spend is expected to reach $8.0 billion by 2028-29, with average annual growth of 2.6 per cent per annum.

Domestic daytrip visitors to/within Victoria are forecast to remain relatively flat over the next year with an expected increase of 1.2 per cent to reach 62.2 million by 2019-20. Domestic daytrip visitors are expected to reach 68.9 million by 2028-29, with modest average annual growth of 1.1 per cent per annum.

Domestic Daytrips

Tourism Forecasts

Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG denotes Average Annual Growth.National growth rates are applied to derive Victorian estimates for visitor and expenditure forecasts. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.

Growth in Australian resident outbound departures is expected to slow in the short-term, due to subdued national economic conditions and the relative lower value of the Australian dollar.

In the coming two years, outbound departures are expected to increase 4.0 per cent to 11.7 million in 2019-20 and a further 4.0 per cent to 12.1 million in 2020-21. The 10-year average growth rate is forecast at 3.6 per cent, which will result in outbound departures reaching 16.0 million by 2028-29. The top five outbound destinations are predicted to be Indonesia, New Zealand, the US, China and the UK.

It is expected that outbound departures will continue to be above international arrivals to Australia in the next decade, with forecast international arrivals of 14.6 million compared to outbound departures of 16.0 million by 2028-29, leading to a net deficit of travel of 1.4 million visitors in 2028-29.

Outbound Departures

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FORECAST, 2019 IssueTable 1. International Expenditure Forecasts 2018-19 (estimate) to 2028-29 (forecast)

Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG denotes Average Annual Growth. Victorian estimates for 2018-19 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 forecast growth applied.Sources: Tourism Forecast 2019, Tourism Research Australia, September 2019. National and International Visitor Surveys, Tourism Research Australia.

Victorian forecast estimates are derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data. All expenditure references are in nominal terms.17

Expenditure ($ million) China India MalaysiaUnited States

United Kingdom

New Zealand Singapore Indonesia

Hong Kong Japan France

South Korea Germany Thailand Canada TOTAL

Estimate* 2018-19 3,309 578 428 400 399 399 332 264 233 192 127 136 124 119 86 8,731 Forecast 2019-20 3,595 678 474 433 416 419 347 288 243 221 140 135 133 126 90 9,488

2020-21 3,871 761 510 474 436 430 368 311 267 236 152 143 143 134 96 10,239 2021-22 4,221 857 550 519 460 444 389 336 285 250 165 154 152 141 103 11,097 2022-23 4,623 962 594 567 485 462 412 363 302 265 177 165 162 148 110 12,046 2023-24 5,055 1,081 641 608 511 481 437 390 320 281 191 177 172 154 118 13,055 2024-25 5,488 1,209 692 652 535 501 462 420 338 297 205 189 183 160 126 14,103 2025-26 5,944 1,348 746 697 561 524 488 453 357 315 220 202 194 167 134 15,218 2026-27 6,417 1,504 803 747 589 548 516 488 377 334 236 215 206 174 142 16,405 2027-28 6,922 1,673 865 799 617 573 547 527 398 354 254 230 218 182 151 17,675 2028-29 7,457 1,862 930 856 647 599 578 567 419 375 272 245 231 190 160 19,036

AAG 2018/19-2028/29

8.5% p.a. 12.4% p.a. 8.1% p.a. 7.9% p.a. 4.9% p.a. 4.2% p.a. 5.7% p.a. 8.0% p.a. 6.0% p.a. 6.9% p.a. 7.9% p.a. 6.1% p.a. 6.4% p.a. 4.8% p.a. 6.5% p.a. 8.1% p.a.

Volume rank 2028-29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

FORECAST, 2019 IssueTable 2. International Visitor Forecasts 2018-19 (estimate) to 2028-29 (forecast)Countries sorted by forecast expenditure volume


Victorian forecast estimates derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data.

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Visitors (000s) China India MalaysiaUnited States

United Kingdom




Estimate* 2018-19 681 176 143 249 220 348 136 78 105 87 53 59 80 32 63 3,114 Forecast 2019-20 716 193 151 263 226 359 140 83 109 90 55 61 82 34 67 3,270

2020-21 763 212 159 277 232 369 144 89 113 94 58 61 85 35 69 3,437 2021-22 811 233 167 291 238 380 148 94 118 96 60 63 88 36 72 3,612 2022-23 862 255 175 306 245 390 152 100 122 99 63 66 91 37 75 3,794 2023-24 915 279 184 320 251 400 156 107 127 102 66 69 94 37 77 3,982 2024-25 971 303 194 334 258 410 160 113 132 105 68 72 96 38 79 4,177 2025-26 1,029 328 203 350 265 420 165 120 136 108 71 75 99 39 82 4,379 2026-27 1,090 355 213 365 272 431 169 128 141 111 74 78 102 40 84 4,591 2027-28 1,151 384 223 382 279 441 173 136 146 114 77 81 105 41 86 4,810 2028-29 1,214 415 234 399 287 452 178 145 151 117 80 85 107 42 89 5,038

AAG 2018/19-2028/29


Volume rank 2028-29 1 3 6 4 5 2 7 9 8 10 14 13 11 15 12

FORECAST, 2019 IssueTable 3. International Visitor Nights in Victoria by Origin - Forecasts 2018-19 (estimate) to 2028-29 (forecast)Countries sorted by forecast expenditure volume


Victorian forecast estimates derived by applying national growth rates to Victorian data.19

Nights (000s) China India MalaysiaUnited States

United Kingdom




Estimate* 2018-19 18,953 8,582 3,028 2,686 4,395 2,534 1,773 1,653 1,409 1,615 1,626 1,237 1,484 1,356 1,060 77,505 Forecast 2019-20 19,546 9,568 3,217 2,821 4,577 2,570 1,805 1,805 1,466 1,679 1,713 1,212 1,494 1,378 1,110 80,751

2020-21 20,769 10,650 3,378 2,961 4,690 2,643 1,857 1,921 1,546 1,756 1,816 1,265 1,556 1,411 1,157 86,790 2021-22 22,030 11,689 3,545 3,109 4,796 2,722 1,910 2,019 1,604 1,834 1,915 1,322 1,619 1,449 1,212 92,914 2022-23 23,374 12,807 3,727 3,253 4,895 2,798 1,956 2,119 1,656 1,904 2,012 1,383 1,684 1,491 1,264 97,827 2023-24 24,784 13,956 3,915 3,397 4,993 2,865 2,004 2,223 1,704 1,978 2,112 1,434 1,748 1,538 1,315 102,834 2024-25 26,169 15,154 4,112 3,543 5,093 2,932 2,060 2,323 1,756 2,051 2,216 1,492 1,813 1,578 1,364 108,008 2025-26 27,636 16,408 4,313 3,692 5,206 3,001 2,120 2,432 1,803 2,123 2,323 1,550 1,880 1,623 1,411 113,378 2026-27 29,106 17,751 4,523 3,848 5,317 3,058 2,182 2,550 1,849 2,193 2,432 1,611 1,950 1,666 1,458 118,910 2027-28 30,642 19,166 4,739 4,011 5,431 3,114 2,245 2,677 1,895 2,265 2,547 1,674 2,019 1,708 1,505 124,647 2028-29 32,260 20,696 4,965 4,180 5,547 3,171 2,310 2,812 1,944 2,340 2,666 1,739 2,088 1,751 1,554 130,669

AAG 2018/19-2028/29


Volume rank 2028-29 1 2 4 5 3 6 10 7 12 9 8 14 11 13 15

FORECAST, 2019 IssueTable 4. International and Domestic Nights in Victoria by Purpose of Visit – 2018-19 (estimate) to 2028-29 (forecast)


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Holiday VFR Business Education Other TOTAL Holiday VFR Business Other TOTAL Holiday VFR BusinessInternational

Education Other TOTALEstimate* 2018-19 18.7 25.4 2.8 24.2 6.4 77.5 34.1 28.0 15.0 4.1 81.1 52.7 53.4 17.8 24.2 10.5 158.6 Forecast 2019-20 19.8 25.9 2.9 24.5 7.6 80.8 34.9 28.9 15.0 4.5 83.3 54.7 54.8 17.9 24.5 12.1 164.1

2020-21 21.6 27.9 3.0 26.1 8.2 86.8 35.2 29.5 15.9 4.6 85.1 56.8 57.4 18.9 26.1 12.7 171.9 2021-22 23.5 29.8 3.1 27.8 8.7 92.9 35.5 30.0 16.5 4.8 86.8 59.0 59.8 19.6 27.8 13.5 179.8 2022-23 24.7 31.4 3.3 29.2 9.2 97.8 35.8 30.5 16.8 4.9 87.9 60.5 61.9 20.1 29.2 14.0 185.8 2023-24 26.0 33.0 3.5 30.7 9.6 102.8 36.1 30.8 17.1 4.9 89.0 62.1 63.8 20.6 30.7 14.6 191.8 2024-25 27.3 34.7 3.6 32.3 10.1 108.0 36.4 31.1 17.5 5.0 90.1 63.7 65.8 21.2 32.3 15.1 198.1 2025-26 28.6 36.4 3.8 33.9 10.6 113.4 36.7 31.5 17.9 5.0 91.1 65.3 67.9 21.7 33.9 15.7 204.5 2026-27 30.0 38.2 4.0 35.5 11.1 118.9 36.9 31.8 18.3 5.1 92.1 66.9 70.0 22.3 35.5 16.2 211.1 2027-28 31.5 40.0 4.2 37.3 11.7 124.6 37.1 32.2 18.7 5.1 93.1 68.6 72.2 22.9 37.3 16.8 217.7 2028-29 33.0 42.0 4.4 39.1 12.2 130.7 37.3 32.6 19.1 5.1 94.1 70.3 74.5 23.5 39.1 17.3 224.8

AAG2018/19-2028/29 5.8% p.a. 5.1% p.a. 4.6% p.a. 4.9% p.a. 6.7% p.a. 5.4% p.a. 0.9% p.a. 1.5% p.a. 2.4% p.a. 2.3% p.a. 1.5% p.a. 2.9% p.a. 3.4% p.a. 2.8% p.a. 4.9% p.a. 5.2% p.a. 3.5% p.a.

International Visitor Nights (millions) Domestic Visitor Nights (millions) Total Visitors Nights (millions)

Trip Purpose

VICTORIA

FORECAST, 2019 IssueTable 5. Domestic Tourism in Victoria Summary – 2018-19 (estimate) to 2028-29 (forecast)

Based on visitors aged 15 years and over. AAG denotes Average Annual Growth. Victorian estimates for 2018-19 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 forecast growth applied.Sources: Tourism Forecast 2019, Tourism Research Australia, September 2019. National Visitor Survey, Tourism Research Australia

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Domestic Overnight Expenditure / Visitors and Domestic Daytrip Expenditure / Daytrips

Total

Expenditure (nominal) $ million

Overnight Visitors million


Daytrip Visitors million


Estimate* 2018-19 16.2 28.5 6.2 61.5 22.3 Forecast 2019-20 16.7 28.9 6.3 62.2 23.0

2020-21 17.3 29.2 6.5 63.0 23.8 2021-22 18.0 29.5 6.7 63.8 24.7 2022-23 18.7 29.8 6.8 64.5 25.5 2023-24 19.4 30.2 7.0 65.3 26.4 2024-25 20.0 30.6 7.2 66.0 27.2 2025-26 20.7 31.0 7.4 66.8 28.1 2026-27 21.3 31.3 7.6 67.5 28.9 2027-28 21.9 31.6 7.8 68.2 29.7 2028-29 22.6 32.0 8.0 68.9 30.6

AAG2018/19-2028/29 3.4% p.a. 1.2% p.a. 2.6% p.a. 1.1% p.a. 3.2% p.a.

Domestic Overnight Domestic Daytrips

VICTORIA Domestic Summary

• The Forecast 2019 is an update to the last Forecast release from August 2017.

• The Tourism Forecasts are produced by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), in consultation with industry stakeholders and the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel. The publication provides forecasts of activity across international, domestic, and outbound tourism sectors. The forecasts consider macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index, exchange rates, economic growth, as well as aviation capacity changes. Forecasts are generally conservative.

• The Tourism Forecasts represent the most likely outcome given past trends, current information and the impact of policy and industry changes. TRA has based this forecast on March 2019 results with estimates derived for June 2019. Figures for Australia are based on all short term visitors.

• Victorian estimates for 2018-19 are based on year ending March 2019 results with one quarter of 2018-19 forecast growth applied. Victorian estimates are based on visitors 15 years and over.

• Due to recent revisions in the NVS methodology, TRA has adopted a new methodology for forecasting domestic tourism. Under this approach, travel propensities of all age groups were calculated from the new NVS data series. This was combined with demographic growth projections for the Australian population to forecast growth rates of domestic overnight and day trips.

• Victorian forecast estimates are derived by applying national growth rates per market to Victorian data. Notably, Victoria has been achieving growth rates above the national average in recent years. Therefore, if Victoria does continue to out-perform the national average in future years, these estimates may underestimate the likely growth scenario for Victoria.

• All expenditure references are noted in nominal terms.

• Estimates may not add due to rounding.

• Estimates in this Forecast publication should not be compared to previous releases due to changes to the data inputs used and application of real versus nominal growth rates.

• Future information on the Forecast methodology is available at the TRA website.• International forecasts• Domestic forecasts

FORECAST, 2019 – data notes

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https://www.tra.gov.au/International/international-tourism-forecasts

https://www.tra.gov.au/Domestic/domestic-tourism-forecasts

tourism forecast, 2019 - business.vic.gov.au€¦ · the overall growth outlook for tourism spend...

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