UNWTO General Assembly19th SessionGyeongjuRepublic of Korea10 October 2011

International tourist arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

milli

on Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2010*

881 mn

Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trendWorld

528 mn

940 mn

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Tourism Towards 2030

• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.

• Objectives:– Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans– Provide a global reference on tourism future development– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and

activities• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in

the two decades 2010-2030– Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are

used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010

– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

6 6

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015

Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million

Europe

Asia and the Pacific

Americas

Middle East

Africa

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares

Africa3%

Americas23%

Asia and the Pacific8%

Europe63%

Middle East3%

Middle East6%

Europe51%

Asia and the Pacific22%

Americas16%

Africa5%

Africa7%

Americas14%

Asia and the Pacific30%

Europe41%

Middle East8%

1980

2010

2030

North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030

Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population

No major change in share by purpose of visit

International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million

Leisure, recreation and holidays

VFR, health, religion, other

Business and professional

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Air transport will continue to increasemarket share, but at a slower pace

International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million

by air

over surface

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region

International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

within same region

between regions

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million

12

110 88

308

1030

160204

509

3790

265

541

832

81

6

169

2571

60

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

1980 1995 2010 2030

Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

92

14

3

36

614

3

17

5

57

1722

6

24

12

89

25

61

12

1

21

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

World Africa Americas Asia and thePacific

Europe Middle East

1980 1995 2010 2030

What if assumptions change?

Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Actual data 1980-2010Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)Central projectionFaster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)

One-Page Tourism Towards 2030

• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors:– The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones

• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.

• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts

• Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

Tourism towards 2030 /Global Overview

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org