towards business cases for electric buses. towards business... · scenario comparison oberhausen...

Towards Business Cases for Electric Buses

Fabian Meishner, RWTH Aachen - ISEA

Eliptic Final Conference

Technological ConceptsCharging concept

Battery concept

Opportunity Charging OvernightDepot Charging(AC)

ChargingOn-Route (DC)

Public Grid (AC)

Local tram/metro grid

AC DC

Small Capacity / High power

Barcelona

SzegedGdynia EberswaldeMedium Capacity /

Medium Power Brussels LondonOberhausenLeipzigWarsaw

Large Capacity / Low Power Bremen

2

Scenario ComparisonOberhausen & Barcelona

Oberhausen Barcelona

Lines andOperation

2 lines, 1 standard bus each~ 170-300 km daily distance

1 line, 2 articulated buses~ 200 km daily distance

Vehicle 2x Solaris Urbino 12e 2x Solaris Urbino 18e

Passenger capacity

70 110

Heating/AC Electric Electric

Battery 200 kWh Li-Ion (LFP/C) 125 kWh Li-Ion (NMC/LTO)

OpportunityCharging

220 kW at two TerminalsConnected to DC Tram grid

400/500 kW at both terminalsConnected to AC Public&Metro grid

Depot Charging

20 kW (AC) 50 kW (AC)

3

Towards a Business Case

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Data collection

Simulation of operation & TCO Calculation

Cost comparison with diesel

Scaling effects of infrastructure

Consideration of external factors

Sensitivity analysis

Risk assessment

4

Business Case CompositionData Collection - Invest

1

Item Quantity Oberhausen Barcelona

Vehicle

Chassis 1 300,000 € 532,000 €

Battery 1 200,000 € 187,500 €

Ʃ Bus 1 500,000 € 719,500 €

Ʃ Bus,total 2 1,000,000 € 1,440,000 €

Infrastructure

Construction/Installation 1 370,000 € 792,000 €

Fast Charging Device 1 93,000 € 170,000 €

Slow Charging Device 1 16,000 € 35,000 €

Ʃ Infrastructure,total 2 devices 625,000 € 1,202,000 €

Ʃ Project 1.625M € 2.642M €

5

Business Case CompositionData Collection - Operation

Item Quantity Oberhausen Barcelona

Maintenance

Costs per Quarter per bus 4,500 € 4,500 €

Trend general ▼ ▼

Energy

Costs T0 - 0.15 €/kWh 0.06 – 0.1 €/kWh

Costs Tend - 0.225 €/kWh (+50%) 0.09 – 0.15 €/kWh (+50%)

Operation

Theor. Mileage per bus/year 86,700 km 73,000 km

Average Passenger per bus 28 (40 %) 48 (40 %)

* *

* reduced costs through connection to the existing network

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Data collection






Risk assessment

7

Business CaseSimulation of Operation

Item Oberhausen Barcelona

Energy Consumption

Average Case 1.3 kWh/km 2.0 kWh/km

Worst Case 2.6 kWh/km 4.5 kWh/km

Oberhausen Line 962, Mo-Fr, Worst-Case Barcelona Lini H16, Mo-Fr, Worst-Case

8

Business CaseTCO comparison of Projects

0.0100 €0.0134 €

0.0043 €

0.0032 €

0.0106 € 0.0075 €

0.0113 €0.0153 €

0.0076 €0.0048 €

0.0438 € 0.0441 €

0.0000 €

0.0050 €

0.0100 €

0.0150 €

0.0200 €

0.0250 €

0.0300 €

0.0350 €

0.0400 €

0.0450 €

0.0500 €

Oberhausen Barcelona

TCO comparison in € / passenger km

Energy

Infrastructure

Batteries

Maintenance

Vehicles

Investigation timeframe 12 years

Interest rate 4 %

Battery replacement 1 (year 6)

Residual value of components 5 % of invest

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Data collection






Risk assessment

10

Business CaseCost Comparison to Diesel EU6

Item Quant. OberhausenElectric

Oberhausen Diesel

BarcelonaElectric

Barcelona Diesel

Vehicle 1 500,000 € 240,000 719,500 € 350,000

Maintenance 14,500 €/quarter/bus▼

4,500 €/quarter/bus▬

4,500 €/quarter/bus▼

4,500 €/quarter/bus ▬

Infrastructuretotal

2 devices

625,000 € neglectable 1,202,000 € neglectable

Energy - 0.15 €/kWh ▲ 1 €/l ▲0.06-0.1 €/kWh ▲

0.9 €/l ▲

assumption: same reliability / availability !

11

Business CaseTCO comparison of Projects

0.0100 € 0.0082 €

0.0134 €0.0091 €

0.0043 €0.0059 €

0.0032 €

0.0045 €

0.0106 € 0.0075 €

0.0113 €0.0153 €

0.0076 €

0.0141 €

0.0048 €

0.0151 €

0.0438 €

0.0283 €

0.0441 €

0.0287 €

0.0000 €

0.0050 €

0.0100 €

0.0150 €

0.0200 €

0.0250 €

0.0300 €

0.0350 €

0.0400 €

0.0450 €

0.0500 €

Oberhausen Oberhausen Diesel EU6 Barcelona Barcelona Diesel EU6

TCO Comparison in € / passenger km

Energy

Infrastructure

Batteries

Maintenance

Vehicles

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Data collection






Risk assessment

13

Infrastructure Scaling Electrification of a complete bus line

0.0134 € 0.0134 €

0.0032 € 0.0032 €

0.0075 € 0.0075 €

0.0153 €

0.0047 €

0.0048 €

0.0048 €

0.0441 €

0.0336 €

0.0000 €

0.0050 €

0.0100 €

0.0150 €

0.0200 €

0.0250 €

0.0300 €

0.0350 €

0.0400 €

0.0450 €

0.0500 €

2 buses 8 buses

Barcelona

Energy

Infrastructure

Batteries

Maintenance

Vehicles

Consideration of scaling effects of infrastructureonly 2 buses at the moment, but 8 possible on this line

opp. charging infrastructure costs per km significantly reduced

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Data collection






Risk assessment

15

External factorsEnvironmental Costs

Item FederalEnvironmental

Agency Germany

EU Clean VehiclesDirective

Oberhausen Diesel EU6 Bus(38 l / 100 km)

Barcelona Diesel EU6 Bus

(60 l / 100 km)

CO2 145 €/t 30 €/t 125.000 € 190,000 €

NOx 10,300 €/t 4,400 €/t 4.050 € 8,000 €

PM 36,300 €/t 87,000 €/t 120 € 180 €

Noise 0.0968 €/km 0.0768 €/km 79.000 € 66,000 €

Ʃ 208,170 € 264,180 €

16

External factors

0.0100 €0.0082 €

0.0134 €

0.0091 €

0.0043 €0.0059 €

0.0032 €

0.0045 €

0.0106 €0.0075 €

0.0045 € 0.0047 €

0.0076 €

0.0141 €

0.0048 €

0.0151 €

0.0033 €

0.0071 €

0.0028 €

0.0069 €

0.0402 €

0.0350 € 0.0364 € 0.0356 €

0.0000 €

0.0050 €

0.0100 €

0.0150 €

0.0200 €

0.0250 €

0.0300 €

0.0350 €

0.0400 €

0.0450 €


Total cost per kilometer scaled with Environment

Environment

Energy

Infrastructure

Batteries

Maintenance

Vehicles

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Data collection






Risk assessment

18

SensitivityNo battery replacement

0.0100 €0.0082 €

0.0134 €

0.0091 €

0.0043 €0.0059 €

0.0032 €

0.0045 €

0.0066 €0.0047 €

0.0045 € 0.0047 €

0.0076 €

0.0141 €

0.0048 €

0.0151 €

0.0033 €

0.0071 € 0.0028 € 0.0069 €

0.0363 € 0.0350 €

0.0337 € 0.0356 €

0.0000 €

0.0050 €

0.0100 €

0.0150 €

0.0200 €

0.0250 €

0.0300 €

0.0350 €

0.0400 €


Total cost per passenger kilometerscaled / with Environment / no battery replacement

Environment

Energy

Infrastructure

Batteries

Maintenance

Vehicles

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Data collection






Risk assessment

200

Risks

■ Charging infrastructure technically not mature

□ Failure leads to inoperability of electric buses on the affected line

□ Diesel buses must be kept in reserve higher TCO

■ Interoperability of charging infrastructure with other bus manufacturers

□ If new buses are procured, they have to be able to directly use the existing systemwithout profound adaption

■ Warranty for battery/vehicle/charging infrastructure

□ Who pays when errors occur that damage important components, e.g. the battery

■ Changes of Political situation/will

211

Conclusion and outlook

Is there a Business Case to use existing infrastructure?

□ It depends

□ Reduced costs for energy have significant positive impact

Battery electric buses will be a Business Case, if …

■ political will is strengthened – accordingly funding to overcome

high investment costs

■ the system reliability increases to the level of diesel buses

■ costs of all components are reduced (especially vehicle/battery)

■ interoperability of different manufacturers is ensured

□ standardization of coupling and charging devices

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All results with detailed

explanation will be available soon

in the “Final Business Cases”

report, see

www.eliptic-project.eu

Towards Business Cases for Electric Buses

Fabian Meishner, RWTH Aachen - ISEA

Eliptic Final Conference

towards business cases for electric buses. towards business... · scenario comparison oberhausen...

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