toy markets in the world annual 2010poland, portugal, spain, uk, u.s.a. - the npd existing toy...
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AUTOMOTIVE
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COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY
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SPORTSToy Markets in the World
l 010SPORTS
TOYS
WIRELESS Presented to ICTI October 17, 2011
Annual 2010
Jane Zimmy, The NPD Group, [email protected]
Copyright 2008. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.
The Concept behind the Worldwide Projections
The primary factors that drive toys and games market consumption are:– Population by core age groups– GDP per inhabitant Changes in both of these factors contribute to changes in market size.g g
The business-as-usual projection of the toys and games market sizes historically have been produced using projections of these driving variables provided by IMF, the U.N., and The NPD Group.
The framework assumptions – The richer the country, the higher the Average Expenditure in Toys
per Child (AETC)– The richer the country, the higher the proportion of consumers age
15 years old and older.
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Sources of information
• World Population International Database Dec 2010
Population• World Population, International Database, Dec. 2010
U.S. Census Bureau, International
Macro economics• World Economic Outlook Database, Oct. 2010
International Monetary Fund
Macro-economics
• Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK, U.S.A. - The NPD
Existing Toy Markets
Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK, U.S.A. The NPD Group
All calculations have been made in U.S. $. Exchange rates are as of December 2009 & December 2010
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December 2009 & December 2010.
In 2009, NPD estimated the Global Toy market at just under $80 billion USD
World Toy Market (billion $)
80
82
$78.088$77.224
$79,552
76
78
80
billi
on
72
74
76
USD
702007 2008 2009
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+3.0%-1.1%
NPD was optimistic and forecasted the toy market to continue to grow in 2010.
World Toy Market (billion $)
$83.900 (est.)82 000
$78.088$77.224
79.552
78.000
80.000
82.000
on
74.000
76.000
USD
bill
io
70.000
72.000
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Current Exchange rates for 2010
Impact of FX on Top 10 Markets: Not all are as bleak as those trading the EURO
15%
Currency Effect
10%
5%
-5%
0%
-10%
5%
US Japan China UK France Germany Brazil India Australia Canada
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If there was no growth in local currency what would the market size trend be in USD?
European Toy Market Trends 2010 (Value) restated in USD Trends
+4.6%
-2.1%-2.9% +3.4
-3.3%+4.8%
-7.1%
-4.9%
-5.2%
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Source: NPD Consumer and POS Panels. Trends for Big 5 represent TOTAL market, others are NPD’s POS services and do not represent total market. Trend in local Currency
+23.4%
2010 Results were in line with NPD’s optimistic forecast-A growing market (up 4.7%)
World Toy Market (billion $)
$79.600$83.300
86.00088.00090.000
$78.100 $77.200
$79.600
76.00078.00080.00082.00084.000
USD
bill
ion
70.00072.00074.00076.000
2007 2008 2009 2010
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2010 toy revenues by region (billions of $)
World Toy Market by Region (billion $)
$
$23.9 +2.5%
$23.3 -.7%
$23.1 +9.2%
$7 3$3.1
+5 6%$7.3+10.7%
+5.6% $2.6 +23%
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Top CountriesTop Countriespp
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10
2010: Top 10 still represent 2/3 of total
Country Rank Country Country Share Spend/kid Kids Population % to 15+ yrs
2010 2009 2010 2009 2010($) 2010 (million) 2010
United States $1 1 United States 26.3% 27.0% $284 62.4 19%
2 2 Japan 7.5% 7.3% $312 16.9 16%
3 3 China 6 7% 6 2% $23 238 3 2%3 3 6.7% 6.2% $23 238.3 2%
4 4 United Kingdom 5.4% 5.4% $365 10.8 12%
5 5 France 4.9% 5.3% $307 12.0 10%
6 6 Germany 4.0% 4.3% $247 11.0 19%
7 7 Brazil 3.9% 3.5% $59 53.3 4%
8 9 Australia 2.8% 2.4% $486 4.0 17%
9 8 India 2.7% 2.6% $6 352.8 0%
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10 10 Canada 2.5% 2.4% $317 5.4 17%
Indicates the presence of a tracking service from NPD
Best Estimate of 2011 (current)
World Toy Market (billion $)
$78.100$79.600
$83.300 $85.000
82 000
84.00086.00088.000
90.000
on $78.100$77.200
74.00076.00078.000
80.00082.000
USD
bill
i
70.00072.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (October)
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Current expectation of mixed performance in Europe, lackluster sales in U.S. balanced by continued growth from developing countries –resulting in a 2% increase.
ありがとう
Obrigado
DziękiTak
Dzięki Tack どうもありがとうどうもありがとう
For further information:Jane Zimmy
[email protected] 516 625 2226
Proprietary and Confidential
001.516.625.2226