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Monica BansalDepartment of Transportation Planning

Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee

September 5, 2008

TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “CLRP

Aspirations” and “What Would it Take?” Scenarios

Item 3

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Two New Scenarios

CLRP Aspirations

Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update.

Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assess what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal.

What Would it Take?

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Study Timeline

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Land Use Compone

nt(Version 1)

Households,Growth shifts 2010-2030

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Land Use Compone

nt(Version 1)

Employment,Growth shifts 2010-2030

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Transportation Component (Version 1)

Bus stations are located in activity centers, park and ride lots and existing Metrorail stations via dedicated access ramps

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Fuel EfficiencyFuel Carbon

Intensity

Three categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions

Travel Efficiency

Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices

Reduce congestion

Improve operational efficiency

Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020]

Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

Vehicle technology (hybrid engine technology)

Building the ScenariosWhat Would it Take?

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What Can We Do by Reducing Congestion?

CO2 Emissions Rates by Speed

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Speed (MPH)

CO

2 (g

/mi)

Source: University of California, Riverside

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Analyzing Cost-Effectiveness

Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures ($ per ton of CO2 reduced)

(TIP Projects)

Number Category DescriptionCO2 Cost Effectiveness

Range *

1 Access Improvements to Transit/ HOV $100 to $400

2 Bicycle / Pedestrian projects $50 to $100

3 Transit Service improvements $100 to $800

4 Rideshare Assistance Programs $30 to $300

5 Park & Ride Lots (Transit and HOV) $100 to $500

6 Telecommute Programs $10 to $40

7 Signal Optimization $30 to $50

8 Bus Replacement Programs $525 to $775

* Several locations / applications studied

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Analyzing Emissions Cumulatively

If we begin reducing in 2020 or 2030 rather than steadily reducing now, we will not reduce the same level of cumulative emissions as is needed.

Transportation Sector Emissions Example Reductions for Measures