track-risk-impact-policy (trip) modeling for the...

Glenn S. Banaguas

Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling for the

Agricultural Sector

Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute De La Salle Araneta University

Manila ObservatoryAteneo De Manila University

International Conference on Climate Change Im

pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm

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GENERAL FRAMEWORK



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TRACK



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Tropical Cyclones



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Monthly Analysis Model



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RISK



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Elements of Risk

Vulnerability is defined as a

condition determined by

physical, social, and economic

and environmental factors or

processes, which increase the

susceptibility of a community

to the impact of hazards. (e.g.

Human Development Index)

Exposure is the process by

which a person comes into a

contact with a hazard. (e.g.

population)

Hazard a process or event that

is potentially damaging in that

it may result in loss of life or

injury, loss of property, socio-

economic destruction or

environmental degradation.

Hazard

RISKR=H x E x V

Vulnerability Exposure



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MODEL

Max θ = μ11 + μ12 + … μij

μij = indicator i assigned to j hotspots

i = 1..n (number of iterations)j = 1…m (number of hotspots)

αn βn + .. αn-1 βn-1≤ σμi1 + μi2 +…. μij ≤ ρ

Indicator Duration 1(α)

Duration 2(β)

Probable Damaged Area

Number of Hotspots

Number of Elements

Optimum Number of Element

PROBABILISTIC INPUTS

CONTROLLABLE INPUTS

Figure 2.2 Risk Simulation Model

Monte Carlo Simulation/Modeling

Risk Assessment



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Variables:

θ = total number of indicator

n = number of iterations

αn = random variable for probability distribution

of first duration

βn = random variable for probability distribution

of second duration

μij = indicator i assigned to j hotspots

i = 1 to n (iterations to end)

j = 1 to m ( hotspots)

Objective Function

Max the total number of indicator = n (total number of iterations)

Max θ = μ11 + μ12 + … μij

Subject to:

αn βn + .. αn-1 βn-1≤ σ (total number of period)

μi1 + μi2 + μij ≤ ρ (total number of indicator)

n, μij, αn, βn ≥ 0 (non-negativity)



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Flowchart of

Monte Carlo Modeling

# indicator = # of iterations

MODEL PARAMETERS

Max θ = μ11 + μ12 + … μij

μij = indicator i assigned to j hotspot

i = 1..n (number of iterations)

j = 1..m (number of hotspot)

αn βn + .. αn-1 βn-1≤ σ

μi1 + μi2 + μij ≤ ρ

START

Generate (Poisson) for the indicator

Generate (discrete) random numbers from the

probability distribution month (α)

Total Number of Indicator n = αn βn + .. αn-1 βn-1

Generate (discrete) random numbers from the

probability distribution days (β)

Is Total days n <= σ

STOP

Next Iteration (n)

Yes

No



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Monte Carlo Simulation Output

After 1000 replications per indicator, Table 3.1 as shown provides the summary of the simulation results

Table 3.1 Summary of the Modeling Results



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Risk Modelling

using GIS



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Hazard Exposure Vulnerability



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IMPACT



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Agricultural areas that were damaged by the

Tropical Cyclones



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POLICY



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Policies

• (a) the Republic Act 7160, which is also

known as the Local Government Code

• (b) Republic Act 10121, which is the

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Act; and

• (c) the Republic Act 9729, which is the

Climate Change Act.



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EXAMPLE: Disaster Funds Allocationa. Present Calamity Funds Allocation

(Section 324-d of Republic Act 7160 ; Section 21 Republic Act 10121; and Section 18of Republic Act of 9729): 5% of the revenue

Using the revenue allotment of 2009, Php 10,053,996.00,

around Php 502, 699.80 is allotted to the Municipality of Cabusao

Probable Affected

Population

Budget Allocation

(Php for 1 day)

Budget Allocation

(Php for 5 days)

19,653 26.00 5.00

15,722 (80%) 32.00 6.00

11,791 (60%) 43.00 8.00

7,861 (40%) 64.00 13.00

3,930 (20%) 128.00 26.00



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DRR-CCA-MDG Model



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Adaptation AlternativesAspects Adaptation Alternatives

Infrastructure Coastal resource management; sand pumping; river dredging; lining of river

channel; installation of collectors, storm gates and pumps; construction of water

gate; development of food storage facilities; rain gauge installation;

Capacity Building Improve environmental education; build staff capacity and infrastructure to

implement flood warning system; build capacity in weather forecasting; Hydro-

climatic network monitoring; strengthen commodity value chains and find new

markets; build knowledge and capacity in adaptation

Policy Design and implement zoning regulations and building codes; inter-sectoral

allocation; facilitate access to credit; water conservation and demand

management (including metering and price structure); compensation for flood

damages; develop coastal resource management plans at the barangay levels

New Practices Incorporation of risk assessment and mitigation information into micro-

watershed management plans; rainwater harvesting; documentation of best

practices and case studies



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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

1.Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a localpriority with a strong institutional basis for implementation.

a. Reviewing climate risk information available at the local

level;

b. Determining capacities for data collection and use;

c. Undertaking wide risk profiling with a focus on

vulnerable areas, sectors and groups;

d. Reviewing the zoning and land use plan taking into

account the danger areas.



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2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks andenhance early warning.

In the Philippines, it is not enough to have a warninggadget/device that will monitor the risks. Thesiren/warning device should provide sophisticatedservices such as full automation that will air 8 to 14kilometers in order for the people to prepare inadvance.



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3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a cultureof safety and resilience at all levels.

Improved use of climate change/natural disaster informationthat requires more investment in

a.networks of climate stations,

b.capacity building for interpreting information,

c. user-friendly forecasting tools and products

d. linkages between service providers (researchers andhydro-meteorological services)



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4. Reduce the underlying risk factors

a. Adapting agriculture, fisheries, and other industry practices through,

for example, adjustment of crop and fishing calendars, and

introduction of climate-resilient crop and tree varieties;

b. Improving sustainable natural and coastal resource management to

increase resilience of food production systems;

c. Investing in infrastructure and hazard proofing critical facilities;

d. Diversifying livelihoods through decreasing dependence on the usual

activities, and increasing small-scale enterprise development.



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5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response atall levels

a. Expanded contingency planning, especially in areas prone to flood,

windstorms or drought, that considers new and evolving risk scenarios

and integrates the three (3B’s) “Build Back Better” principles to induce

prevention and adaptation in rehabilitation;

b. More flexible funding mechanisms at the international level that allow

development and humanitarian resources to be invested in

preparedness;

c. Preparedness for diversified livelihoods response options combined

with social protection measures both to individuals and households ;

d. Proper communication through responsible avenues with the use of

TV and radio stations.



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GAPS AND

CONSTRAINTS



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• (a) the lack of sufficient normative

frameworks (lack of political will to provide

security, implementation capacity and

limited public resources)

• b) structural limitation - increasing poverty

incidence is highly sensitive issue that is

marginalized in political discourse



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CONCLUSION

Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling provides a dynamic impetus

that created a panorama of genesis, resiliency, and progress.

The colossal figure of the meteorological hazard would continue to

intensify in the future and would give immense bearing and massive

impacts to the populace and to the agricultural assets.

The uncovering issue of worst-case scenario might be idyllic due to its

plausible outcome but should be dealt with apposite solution and

recommendations.



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Thank you.

Take care.

God bless us all.



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