TRACKING NEW ORLEANS’ RECOVERY POST-KATRINA: EARLY RESULTS, MAJOR

CHALLENGES, AND THE NEED FOR FEDERAL LEADERSHIP

Mark VanLandingham, Ph.D.

Thomas C. Keller Professor

Tulane University

School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine

Department of Global Health Systems and Development

Presented at a Congressional Briefing on The Demography of Disasters: Informing Recovery Decisions. Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, D.C., July 18,

2011

Overview

Post-Katrina estimates of the population of New Orleans – a local versus national perspective

Special challenges related to disaster research and the critical role of the Federal Government

Selected results from the Displaced New Orleans Residents Study, and the Katrina Impacts on Vietnamese Americans in New Orleans Study

Conclusions and Implications

The Population Association of American Meetings in New Orleans, April 2008

PAA is a non-profit, scientific, professional organization that promotes research on population issues.

New Orleans Pre-Katrina

Source: Census Bureau

New Orleans Pre-Katrina

New Orleans, September 2005. Source: NASA.

8

The Year That Was

New Orleans' Population, 2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Months

Popu

latio

n si

ze

Special Processing Procedures for the Areas Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared 117 counties to be disaster areas in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. In an effort to produce the most accurate and effective estimates possible, the Census Bureau made several adjustments to its procedures for processing input data to accommodate geographic shifts of the population resulting from these natural events. These procedures are briefly outlined below…

Estimating Population Size in a Post-Disaster Setting: The Federal Response

Nagin urges census revisionby Frank Donze, The Times-Picayune

Friday March 21, 2008, 7:50 AM

Mayor Ray Nagin expressed optimism Thursday that the U.S. Census Bureau will be persuaded to revise what he described as a low-ball estimate of New Orleans' mid-2007 population that could wind up costing the city as much as $56 million in federal assistance.

"We are very confident that we can document our case successfully and overturn this," Nagin said during a news conference that also featured City Council members and leaders from the nonprofit, business and tourism sectors…

Estimating Population Size in a Post-Disaster Setting: The Local Challenge

New Orleans Population Size: 2000-2010

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

4-1-

10

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Siz

e

NOLA-official

NOLA-adjusted

NOLA-official 484,674 477,835 472,556 467,515 461,600 455,046 210,198 288,113 336,644 393,350 442,064

NOLA-adjusted 484,674 477,835 472,556 467,515 461,600 455,046 154,778 212,038 254,849 306,304 351,604

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4-1-10

New Orleans’ Population Post-Katrina

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Homicide rate per 100,000

Year

Homicide Rates in New Orleans, 2000-2009

Cities of similar sizeNOLA-officialNOLA-adjusted

Cities of similar size 12.7 13.1 13.7 13.9 13.2 12.9 7.70 11.40 11.40 11.40

NOLA-official 42.3 44.4 54.6 58.6 57.2 65.3 77.1 72.9 53.2 43.5

NOLA-adjusted 42.3 44.4 54.6 58.6 57.2 65.3 104.7 99.0 70.2 55.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Post-Katrina Population Characteristics: Methodological Challenges Some return; some don’t.

Fussell Elizabeth, Narayan Sastry, and Mark VanLandingham. 2010. Race, Socio-economic Status, and Return Migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment 31: 20-42.

Post-Katrina Population Characteristics: Methodological Challenges Some problems are caused by the

disaster; others pre-date it. Some problems are immediate; others

are delayed.

Vu Lung and Mark VanLandingham. In press. Physical and Mental Health Consequences of Katrina on Vietnamese Immigrants in New Orleans: A pre and post-Disaster Assessment. Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health.

Post-Katrina Population Characteristics: Methodological Challenges Careful and lengthy review facilitates

quality but hinders responsiveness.

Implications

The limits of a local perspective in a post-disaster context.

The importance of accurate and timely post-disaster population data that are free from political influence.

The critical role of the federal government in post-disaster research, especially with regard to funding.

Acknowledgements: Sources of Federal Financial Support for Post-Disaster Research

Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child and Human Development, NIH

National Center on Minority Health and Health Disparities, NIH

National Institute for Mental Health, NIH

For More Information

Displaced New Orleans Residents Survey (DNORS) http://www.rand.org/labor/projects/dnors.ht

ml NIH Grant #s: R21HD057608;

R01HD059106 Katrina Impacts on Vietnamese

Americans in New Orleans (KATIVA NOLA) http://sph.tulane.edu/publichealth/mhosa/

kativanola.cfm NIH Grant #s: R03HD042003;

R21HD057609