tracking new coal-fired power plants

7/31/2019 Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants(data update 7/12/2011)

July 12, 2011

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & PlanningErik Shuster


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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired

power plants that are under development. This report may not representall possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate thepotential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants.Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generationadditions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China.

Experience has shown that public announcements of power plantdevelopments do not provide an accurate representation of eventuallycommissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned hashistorically been significantly less then new capacity announced.

The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that haveachieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more

accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generationindustry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regionsof the United States.

The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy orsuitability of this information.


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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants thatare currently under development, with a focus on those havingmade significant progress toward achieving commercialoperation

The status of projects identified varies from projectannouncements to those under construction

Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators ofcommitment of capital and human resources to actualdevelopment and follow-through to actual capacity additions ishighly dependent on the market environment

Plants that are permitted or under construction (ProgressingProjects) reflect a more significant financial and human resourcecommitment to completion and offer a better perspective of thenew generation capacity that may be forthcoming


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Past Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1

Source: 2007 & 2011 data Ventyx Velocity Suite2002 2005 data Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity

(GW)

Actual 2002 Report 2005 Report 2007 Report 2011 Report

Delays in Implementation

Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity;the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.


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Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite2011 data 7/12/2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity(GW)

Actual 2011 2010 2009 2008

64 GW32 GW31 GW 49 GW14 GW

Latest Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1a

Totals

Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements


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Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)Table 1

Status Listing Description

Under Construction Project is under construction.

Near Construction Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering,Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun.

Permitted In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated.

Announced Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.

ProgressingProjects

UncertainPotential and

Timing

Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData reflects change between 12/13/2010and 7/12/2011

Number of Plants Capacity (MW)

General Status Dec2010

Jul

2011Net

ChangeDec

2010

Jul

2011Net

Change

Under Construction 12 11 -1 7,619 7,384 -235

Near Construction 1 1 0 320 320 0

Permitted 8 11 +3 6,446 9,621 +3,175

SUB TOTAL 21 23 +2 14,385 17,325 2,900

Announced (early stages ofdevelopment) 36 30 -6 17,385 13,844 -3,541

TOTAL 57 53 -4 32,259 31,168 -1,091

Commissioned this Period - 2 +2 - 835 +835

TOTAL

Progressing and Commissioned25 +4 18,160 +3,735


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Current Capacity Additions by YearsRefer to Table 1

Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as of July12, 2011(December 13, 2010 through July 12, 2011)

Progressing plants represent projects with status indicating permitted,

near construction, or under construction

Progressing plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward

commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and

industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects

835 MW (3 plants) have become operational during the 1st half of 2011 as of July

2011

There has been a net increase of 3,735 MW (+26%) of total Progressing and/or

Commissionedprojects through 2011 over Progressingprojects in December

(largely due to 8 units moving from Announced to Permitted)


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Current Coal Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 2

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (17/12/2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Commissionedin 2011 Oak Creek-Unit 2 (615 MW) Whelan (220 MW)

Operational Dates

ProposedActual


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Currently Proposed and ForecastedCoal-Fired Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

8

910

Capacity(GW)

Proposed-Progressing Proposed-Announced EIA AEO 2011 er

Virtually No New Coal inReference case Following

Several CCS Demos


EIA AEO 2011, Reference Case

Figure 3


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Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

GWsofNewC

apacity


Figure 4

2010 was the largest buildsince 1985


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Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

-4

-2

02

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Capacity(GW

)

Additions Capacity(GW)

Retirements Capacity(GW)


Figure 4b


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Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

-2

-1

0

1

2011 2012 2017

Capacity

(GW)

Proposed Online Year

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements

Capacity Change Breakdown

835 MW operational now removed from the list

430 MW canceled

125 MW permitted cancelled

305 MW announcements cancelled

175 MW of new announcements added

Removed Capacity

24%of MWs removed represent Announced projects66% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants

R

emovedCapacity

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (12/13/2010 and 7/12/2011)

Total Net Reductions (less operating) -255 MW

Figure 5

Commissionedin 2011 (as of June)

Oak Creek-Unit 2 (615 MW) Whelan (220 MW)


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Technology

ListingsOperational(Since 2000)

Progressing(Permitted, Near-, and Under

Construction)

Announced Total

Proposed

December

2010

Jul 2011

(Change)

December

2010

Jul 2011

(Change)

December

2010

Jul 2011

(Change)

PC Subcritical 31 5 4 (-1) 10 9 (-1) 15 13 (-2)

CFB 12 4 5 (+1) 9 7 (-2) 13 12 (-1)

PC Supercritical 7 7 8 (+1) 4 2 (-2) 11 10 (-1)

IGCC 1 5 6 (+1) 13 12 (-1) 18 18 (0)

Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData collected (12/13/2010); Current Report data collected (7/12/2011)

Proposed Technologies of New Plants(with Annual change)

Figure 6

Table 2

0

10

20

4 58 6

9 7 2

12

NumberofPlan

ts

Announced

Progressing


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Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 7



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Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 8



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Specified Coal RanksAll Proposed Plants

Figure 9


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

ProposedPlantCapacities(MW)

19,559 MW Generic Coalnot shown on chart


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Coal-Fired Build RateChina and United States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8090

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Capacity(GW)

Figure 10

Source: USA data - Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

China data Platts - UDI WEPPDB June 2011

Online Year

Results are Stacked

234 GW ofUndetermined Dates

of Chinese Plants

Planned no date(evenly distributedover 4 years)


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Other Generation Development Activity


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Proposed U.S. New CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

4045

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ProposedNameplate

Capacity(GW)

Coal NG Wind Nuclear

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

Figure 12


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Status of Proposed New U.S. CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ProposedNameplateCapacity(GW)

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced


Figure 13


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Current Wind Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Operational Dates

ProposedActual



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Current NGCC Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Operational Dates



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Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Operational Dates



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Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Watts Bar Unit 2Construction begun in the 1970s,suspended in 1988 at 80% complete,currently revived with completion

due 2012.

Operational Dates



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U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary1st half 201112/13/2010 7/12/2011

Two new coal-plants totaling 835 MW were Commissionedin thefirst half of 2011

Progressing/Commissionedprojects by July 2011 have had a netincrease of 4 plants; a net change in capacity of 3,735 MW (+26%)

over Progressingprojects in December 2010 175 MW of new capacity has been Announcedand

430 MW have been canceled

Of 430 MW canceled plants, 71% were Announcedphase and 29% wereProgressing

Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announcedto offset recent Commissioning

tracking new coal-fired power plants

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