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Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Tunisia Annexes - Draft Final Report

Client: European Commission - DG TRADE

Rotterdam, 23 September 2013

Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Tunisia Annexes - Draft Final Report

Client: European Commission - DG TRADE Rotterdam, 23 September2013

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About Ecorys

At Ecorys we aim to deliver real benefit to society through the work we do. We offer research, consultancy and project management, specialising in economic, social and spatial development. Focusing on complex market, policy and management issues we provide our clients in the public, private and not-for-profit sectors worldwide with a unique perspective and high-value solutions. Ecorys’ remarkable history spans more than 80 years. Our expertise covers economy and competitiveness; regions, cities and real estate; energy and water; transport and mobility; social policy, education, health and governance. We value our independence, integrity and partnerships. Our staff are dedicated experts from academia and consultancy, who share best practices both within our company and with our partners internationally. Ecorys Netherlands has an active CSR policy and is ISO14001 certified (the international standard for environmental management systems). Our sustainability goals translate into our company policy and practical measures for people, planet and profit, such as using a 100% green electricity tariff, purchasing carbon offsets for all our flights, incentivising staff to use public transport and printing on FSC or PEFC certified paper. Our actions have reduced our carbon footprint by an estimated 80% since 2007. ECORYS Nederland BV Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam The Netherlands T +31 (0)10 453 88 00 F +31 (0)10 453 07 68 E [email protected] Registration no. 24316726 W www.ecorys.nl

Table of contents

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Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Tunisia

Annex A: Methodological note 5 Specifications of the CGE model 5

Annex B: Quantitative Social Analysis 13 Methodology for micro-simulation of disposable income impacts 13 Indicators of poverty and income inequality 14 Assumptions used in the analysis 16 Robustness results of DCFTA impacts on poverty and inequality: outcomes at the household level 18

Annex C: Quantitative Environmental Analysis 21 Changes in the environmental quality 21 Welfare impacts of air pollution 22 Data 23 Climate change externalities 24 Definition of sectors 25

Annex D: International Human Rights Treaties 31

Annex E: Detailed CGE results 40 Macroeconomic indicators 40 Sectoral effects 44

Annex F: Input from Civil Society 72

Annex G: SME survey results 81

Annex H: Civil society in Tunis workshop minutes 97

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Annex A: Methodological note

This methodological note contains a proposal on the specifications of the CGE model that will be used for modelling the TSIAs, including a description of the liberalisation scenario and the underlying assumptions. Specifications of the CGE model

Country Selection As mentioned during the kick off meeting, we recommend to split out a maximum of ten countries from the CGE model. The following ten countries (or country groupings) will be split out for the CGE modelling results: EU-28 (including Croatia); Morocco; Tunisia; Egypt; Jordan; Turkey Rest of MEDA (Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territory, Syria); Rest of Africa; Rest of World.

Sector selection The list of sectors used in the trade modelling of the TSIAs EU – Morocco/Tunisia will be aggregated from the 57 GTAP sectors (Annex 1). Please find below the sector aggregation that will be applied in the quantitative CGE analysis. We still propose to keep the ‘other transport’ sectors separated, because the sectors differ in nature (one is manufacturing and the other is services) and we feel that ports could possible require further analysis (if they have bottlenecks the trade flow increases may be affected). Nr. Abbrev. Sector content (57 sectors) Nr. Abbrev. Sector description (Trade SIA)

1 PDR Paddy rice 1 GRN Grains and crops

2 WHT Wheat

3 GRO Cereal grains nec

4 V_F Vegetables, fruit, nuts 2 VOS Veg, fruit & nuts

5 OSD Oil seeds 3 OCP Other crops

6 C_B Sugar cane, sugar beet

7 PFB Plant-based fibers

8 OCR Crops nec

9 CTL Bovine cattle, sheep and goats,

horses

4 ANP Animal products

10 OAP Animal products nec

11 RMK Raw milk

12 WOL Wool, silk-worm cocoons

13 FRS Forestry 5 FRS Forestry products

14 FSH Fishing 6 FSH Fish products

15 COA Coal 7 EGY Energy

16 OIL Oil

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Nr. Abbrev. Sector content (57 sectors) Nr. Abbrev. Sector description (Trade SIA)

17 GAS Gas

18 OMN Minerals nec 8 OMN Other minerals

19 CMT Bovine meat products 9 MPT Livestock and Meat Products

20 OMT Meat products nec

21 VOL Vegetable oils and fats 10 VOL Vegetable oils and fats

22 MIL Dairy products 11 PRF Other processed food

23 PCR Processed rice

24 SGR Sugar

25 OFD Food products nec

26 B_T Beverages and tobacco products 12 B_T Beverages and tobacco

27 TEX Textiles 13 TEX Textiles

28 WAP Wearing apparel 14 WAP Wearing apparel

29 LEA Leather products 15 LEA Leather products

30 LUM Wood products 16 LUP Wood, paper, publishing

31 PPP Paper products, publishing

32 P_C Petroleum, coal products 17 P_C Petro-chemicals

33 CRP Chemical, rubber, plastic

products

18 CRP Chemical, rubber, plastic

products

34 NMM Mineral products nec 19 NMM Ceramics, cement, etc.

35 I_S Ferrous metals 20 MET Primary metals

36 NFM Metals nec

37 FMP Metal products 21 FMP Fabricated metals

38 MVH Motor vehicles and parts 22 MVH Motor vehicles

39 OTN Transport equipment nec 23 OTN Other transport

40 ELE Electronic equipment 24 ELE Electronics, computers

41 OME Machinery and equipment nec 25 OME Other machinery and equipment

42 OMF Manufactures nec 26 OMF Other manufacturing

43 ELY Electricity 27 UTI Utilities

44 GDT Gas manufacture, distribution

45 WTR Water

46 CNS Construction 28 CNS Construction

47 TRD Trade 29 TRD Trade

48 OTP Transport nec 30 OTP Other transport

49 WTP Water transport 31 WTP Water transport

50 ATP Air transport 32 ATP Air transport

51 CMN Communication 33 CMN Communications

52 OFI Financial services nec 34 FIS Finance and insurance1

53 ISR Insurance

54 OBS Business services nec 35 OBS Business and ICT

55 ROS Personal and recreational

services

36 ROS Personal and recreational

services

56 OSG Public Administration, Defense,

Education, Health

37 OSG Public and other services

57 DWE Dwellings

1 We will refer to this sector as financial services throughout this report, and this sector thus includes insurance services.

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Base year The CGE model will be based on the GTAP 8 dataset, which includes figures until 2007. However, the base year will be brought forward using actual IMF figures on trade and growth (i.e. it is not a linear projection, but an adjusted actual projection). The latest complete data for all country groupings and sectors are available for 2011, which will be the base year in the CGE analysis. The 2011 projection includes the effect of the global economic crisis and includes the most reliable and accurate globally consistent data available to date. Baseline scenario The baseline scenario constitutes a very important element of the model specifications since it sets the benchmark based on which the impacts of the DCFTAs will be modelled. The baseline will include all FTAs until now. Since for both DCFTAs (Morocco and Tunisia) differ from each other with respect to the baseline scenario, in the following we shortly describe what the baseline scenario for Morocco and Tunisia look like.

(i) Morocco For the EU – Morocco scenario, a DCFTA between the EU – Tunisia will be included in the

baseline since the effect of a DCFTA on Morocco cannot be viewed in isolation of the DCFTA with Tunisia (negotiated simultaneously);

For the EU – Morocco DCFTA, two different baseline scenarios will be modelled, and from both baselines, one liberalisation scenario will be modelled:

1. 2011 baseline, depicting the situation before implementation of the October 2012 agricultural agreement. This scenario includes the negotiated Association Agreement (ratified in 2000) between the EU and Morocco;

2. Post-October 2012 baseline, which forms the baseline for modelling the DCFTA effects. This baseline includes the liberalisation measures negotiated in the 2012 agreement, so that the pure DCFTA effects can be measured.

The 2011 baseline forms the basis for measuring the impacts of the October 2012 agreement and the October 2012 baseline forms the basis of measuring the ‘pure’ DCFTA effects;

The reason for splitting the baseline scenarios based on the October 2012 agreement is to clearly distinguish between the sole effects of the DCFTA and the effects of the signing of the October 2012 agreement – especially important for the agricultural sectors. Taking only the baseline before the October 2012 agreement would not clearly show the true effects of a DCFTA with Morocco since the October 2012 agreement would be responsible for parts of the impacts. This approach is in line with email correspondence with the SC on this matter;

The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) will not be included in either of both baselines.

(ii) Tunisia For the EU – Tunisia scenario, a DCFTA between the EU – Morocco will be included in the

baseline since the effect of a DCFTA on Tunisia cannot be viewed in isolation of the DCFTA with Morocco (negotiated simultaneously). Because the two DCFTAs cannot be seen in isolation, the October 2012 agreement for Morocco also matters for Tunisia. It matters not in terms of baseline tariffs, NTMs or services barriers, but the October 2012 agreement could have a small impact on the baseline trade flows for Tunisia – as a neighbouring country to Morocco;

The Association Agreements (AA) with the EU (signed in 1998) is included in the baseline; The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is not included in the baseline.

Liberalisation scenario Since for Morocco we de facto consider two liberalisation scenarios, namely the liberalisation towards the October 2012 agreement (with respect to the 2011 baseline) and the DCFTA liberalisation scenario, the scenarios for Morocco and Tunisia are explained separately below. In

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order to define liberalisation scenarios, three channels of liberalisation will be studied: (i) tariffs, (ii) services liberalisation and (iii) other NTMs: 1. Morocco – October 2012 liberalisation scenario

The liberalisation modelled for the October 2012 scenario only models the tariff liberalisations that have been agreed in the agreement2. Thus this liberalisation scenario consists of: (i) Tariffs

100% tariff reductions for the agricultural products and processed agricultural products, fish and fishery products, save for the exceptions defined in articles 2 and 5 of the Agreement3, which will be modelled according to defined scenarios in the Agreement. The definitions of agricultural products and processed agricultural products, fish and fishery products are according to the Combined Nomenclature definition (chapters 1-24);

(ii) Services liberalisation No services liberalisation is modelled;

(iii) Other NTMs No other NTMs liberalisation is modelled.

This allows us to define a new – Oct-2012 inclusive – baseline which forms the starting point for the DCFTA modelling.

2. Morocco – DCFTA liberalisation scenario

The liberalisation modelled for the DCFTA scenario consists of tariff, services NTM and other NTM liberalisations compared to a baseline that includes the October 2012 liberalisation scenario explained above. Hence, this liberalisation scenario takes the October 2012 liberalisation results as baseline and focuses on the differences (i.e. the pure DCFTA effects) compared to that baseline. (i) Tariffs The Steering Committee has indicated that the focus of the DCFTAs is on regulatory approximation and not on tariff reduction since the October 2012 agreement eliminated most actionable tariffs. Hence, no further tariff liberalisations will be modelled:

Tariff reduction EU into Morocco: 0% liberalisation for all sectors; Tariff reduction Morocco into the EU: 0% liberalisation for all sectors.

Please bear in mind that – as explained above – these 0% liberalisations are with respect to the October 2012 baseline, which already includes far going tariff liberalisation.

Therefore, we will not model any further tariff liberalisations, not for agricultural, nor for manufacturing sectors. For the DCFTA, instead, we focus on regulatory approximation. Calculating the exact tariffs left depends on the chosen sector aggregation (see table on the previous page) and will be done as part of the beginning of the modelling phase. They will be supplied in a separate Excel file to the Commission.

(ii) Services liberalisation The modelling of service level NTMs for the DCFTA EU – Morocco is based on the methodology developed for previous TSIAs conducted by Ecorys, notably for the TSIA of the DCFTAs between the EU and Georgia/Moldova and EU – Armenia. Liberalisation in the

2 European Union, Official Journal of the European Union L241, Volume 55, 7 September 2012, available at: http://eur-

lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2012:241:FULL:EN:PDF. 3 See specific agreement (footnote 2).

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services sector is based on a percentage reduction in Trade Cost Equivalents (TCEs) for a particular sector. A TCE is in essence the calculation of a non-tariff barrier into a tariff (number) equivalent.

For the DCFTA between the EU and Morocco, Ecorys will model a 13% reduction in TCEs for the services sectors 26 until 36 (as described in the sector aggregation table) from the Moroccan side and a 3% reduction in TCEs on the EU-side. This value has been agreed by the Steering Committee and is derived using the following methodology:

The modelling of service level NTMs for the TSIAs EU – Morocco and EU – Tunisia is based on the methodology developed for previous TSIAs and a large EU-US NTM study conducted by Ecorys. Please find below the highlights of this methodology:

1. First, the baseline presence of NTMs in the respective service sectors is determined in terms

of Trade Cost Equivalents (TCE). This value has been estimated as an average value for services by Prof. J. Francois based on OECD data by estimating an equation where import demand is a function of the size of the economy (GDP) and its income level (per-capita income). When this is adjusted by the import substitution elasticity on a national level, these coefficients provide an estimate of the existing barriers in services in terms of TCEs. Please see also the technical annex from Prof. Francois (Annex 2) with the more elaborate specifications regarding this estimation technique. This calculation results in an estimated presence of services NTMs of 40% for all sectors4.

2. Second, the level of services NTM reductions is estimated in coordination with the steering committee, modelling experts and the consultant. For Morocco and Tunisia, the level of NTM reductions in services sectors is chosen to be 6% for the EU-side liberalisations and 13% and 8% for the Moroccan and Tunisian side liberalisations respectively. These values are based on:

a. A benchmark with respect to the FTA between the EU and Ukraine, and the DCFTA with Armenia. In the Ukraine TSIA, NTMs in services were modelled to be reduced by 60% (in a limited scenario) and 100% (in an extended scenario). For Armenia, the ambitions for services sector liberalisation are lower and hence a liberalisation percentage of 7% was agreed;

b. A realistic comparison with WTO liberalisation ambitions described by the Most-Favoured-Nation clause;

c. Findings in the literature;5 6 d. Input from the Steering Committee.

(iii) Other NTMs For the modelling of liberalisation of other NTMs, we take into account the following assumptions:

1. The EU is focusing primarily on SPS and TBT approximation (based on information KoM for Morocco/Tunisia);

2. The standards of Morocco need to approximate those of the EU because the EU is not going to lower its standards in the fields of SPS and TBT – at least not to an average somewhere in between.

4 Francois, J; Hoekman, B; Woerz, J, 2007, Does gravity apply to intangibles? Measuring openness in services. 5 Fontagné, L; Guillin, A; Mitaritonna, C, 2010, Estimations of tariff equivalents for the services sectors, CEPII, June 2010,

available at: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/5032.pdf. 6 Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Risk Service (Morocco/Tunisia).

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Based on the assumptions outlined below, we propose to model a sector specific reduction in NTMs – but an asymmetric reduction (For Morocco twice the level of EU reductions). EU reductions are, however, not zero because regulatory approximation also means further access for EU firms, even if EU standards are higher from the outset (with NTMs it is differences in standards that matter, not level of standards). The level of other NTM reductions for the economic sectors in Morocco and the EU are based on similar base figures as for the EU – Tunisia DCFTA. These liberalisation figures are presented below.

1. Tunisia – DCFTA liberalisation scenario

(i) Tariffs Tunisia did not conclude a similar agreement to the October 2012 agreement that Morocco concluded with the European Union. Hence for Tunisia, tariff reductions still make up an important share of overall liberalisation since Tunisia’s baseline includes only the AA with the EU. However, the October 2012 agreement with Morocco does – only to a limited extent – affect the Tunisian baseline trade flows, so the October 2012 deal with Morocco is also in the baseline for Tunisia (indirectly). Keeping that in mind, the following tariff liberalisations are modelled:

Tariff reduction EU into Tunisia: 80% liberalisation for agricultural sectors; Tariff reduction Tunisia into the EU: 95% liberalisation for agricultural sectors.

Tariff reduction EU into Tunisia: 100% liberalisation for all remaining sectors; Tariff reduction Tunisia into the EU: 100% liberalisation for all remaining sectors.

No specific TRQs will be modelled. The remaining tariff lines will be calculated as part of the start of the modelling and will be supplied in a separate Excel document to the Commission.

(ii) Services liberalisation The modelling of service level NTMs for the DCFTA EU – Tunisia is also based on the methodology developed for previous TSIAs conducted by Ecorys and follows the same methodology as described for Morocco.

For the DCFTA between the EU and Tunisia, Ecorys will also model an 8% reduction in TCEs for the services sectors 26 until 36 (as described in the sector aggregation table) for the Tunisian side liberalisation and a 3% reduction in TCEs from an EU-side liberalisation. These value has also been agreed by the Steering Committee.

(iii) Other NTMs For the modelling of liberalisation of other NTMs, we take into account the following assumptions:

1. The EU is focusing primarily on SPS and TBT approximation (based on information KoM for Morocco/Tunisia);

2. The standards of Tunisia need to approximate those of the EU because the EU is not going to lower its standards in the fields of SPS and TBT – at least not to an average somewhere in between.

Based on the assumptions outlined below, we propose to model a sector specific reduction in NTMs – but an asymmetric reduction (For Tunisia twice the level of EU reductions). EU

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reductions are, however, not zero because regulatory approximation also means further access for EU firms, even if EU standards are higher from the outset (with NTMs it is differences in standards that matter, not level of standards). Below, the scenarios for Other NTM reductions are defined for both Tunisia and Morocco.

Methodology liberalisation figures Other NTMs for both Tunisia and Morocco Baseline values for Other NTMs As mentioned above, SPS and TBT are the focus in “other NTMs” alignment. Based on the Ecorys (2009) NTMs in EU – US Trade and Investment general equilibrium model and gravity modelling, baseline values for other NTMs in the sectors have been derived. The gravity results are recalculated into Trade Cost Equivalents, so these reflect the initial height of NTMs per sector. The baseline values can be found in Table 4.2 of the book publication7. Sector liberalisation figures for other NTMs In order to link the data to the reality of the Morocco/Tunisia negotiations, these baseline NTM values per sector are subjected to different liberalisation percentages. Using the extensive Ecorys (2009) database of NTMs (business survey with 5500 responses across the world), the importance of SPS and TBT issues in the overall NTMs is determined. The respondents of the business survey were asked for NTMs in their sector:

(i) What weight they attach to the NTM in the sector (from no weight 1, to heavy weight 5); (ii) What the actionability (likelihood of removal) of the NTM is.

Since the focus of ‘other NTMs’ in the TSIAs is on SPS/TBT, the number of times that “SPS” was mentioned out of the total of NTMs in the relevant sector is calculated as a percentage of the total. This percentage is then weighed with the ‘importance’ criteria (i) and (ii) in order to obtain a weighed percentage of how important SPS/TBT NTMs are with respect to the total amount of NTMs in the sector. In a next step, for every economic sector in Tunisia and Morocco (except for the services sectors, in which no Other NTM reductions are modelled) is determined whether they are heavily (high), lightly (low) or not at all (no) influenced by SPS or TBT issues. The reality of the negotiations, i.e. whether SPS/TBT issues are actually actionable, acts as a ‘downgrade’ of the level of liberalisation possible in sectors affected by SPS/TBT issues. In case many SPS/TBT issues are identified in a certain sector, but the negotiators expect the likelihood of approximation to be low, then only a limited degree of liberalisation is realistic. According to the Kick off Meeting, Moroccan and Tunisian negotiators still need to indicate the sensitive sectors. The Steering Committee has been asked to indicate the actionability of SPS/TBT issues in the selected sectors from an EU perspective, whereas the EU Delegation in Morocco and Tunisia have been asked to indicate the actionability from the Moroccan/Tunisian perspective. The table below summarises these assumptions: Level of presence of NTMs

High Low No

Act

iona

bilit

y High Ambitious liberalisation Limited liberalisation No liberalisation

Low Limited liberalisation No liberalisation No liberalisation

This estimation technique leads to the following liberalisation figures for EU and Morocco/Tunisian-side liberalisation8: 7 Ecorys, 2009, Non Tariff Measures in EU US Trade and Investment. 8 Based on literature used in the Ecorys (2009) study and expertise gathered in previous TSIASs.

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1. Other NTMs from EU to Morocco/Tunisia:

a. 4% point reduction in TCE for the ambitious liberalisation scenario; b. 2% point reduction in TCE for the limited liberalisation scenario; c. 0% point reduction in TCE when there is no liberalisation foreseen; d. 2% point reduction in TCE for all agriculture & manufacturing sectors due to trade

facilitation9.

2. Other NTMs from Morocco/Tunisia to the EU10: a. 16% point reduction in TCE for the ambitious liberalisation scenario – but 50% is taken off to

compensate for higher production costs to meet the higher standard = de facto 8% point reduction;

b. 8% point reduction in TCE for the limited liberalisation scenario – but 50% is taken off to compensate for higher production costs to meet the higher standard = de facto 4% point reduction;

c. 0% reduction in TCE when there is no liberalisation foreseen; d. 2% point reduction in TCE for all agriculture & manufacturing sectors due to trade

facilitation11. 3. For other nations towards Morocco/Tunisia (exports and imports) we also model MFN spill-

overs worth 25% of the liberalisation level with the EU. Next to the Ecorys (2009) NTM data that has been used to estimate the above liberalisation percentages, the values have also been cross checked with a range of studies that the project team has done in the past on FTA modelling and barriers in trade and investment, including Professor Joseph Francois academic work on this topic.

9 The two percent point trade reduction figure has been agreed with and proposed by the Commission during the inception

phase of the EU – Georgia/Moldova TSIAS. It is considered a conservative estimate for NTMs and has been used in many past TSIAS reports conducted by Ecorys. Most importantly, the TSIAS EU – Georgia/Moldova, but also EU – India and EU – ASEAN.

10 For the EU, we sector experts will not be asked to rank SPS/TBT issues since the effects on EU sectors are expected to be small.

11 See footnote 5.

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Annex B: Quantitative Social Analysis

The quantitative social analysis aims to assess the impact of the DCFTA on poverty and income inequality across households in Tunisia. For both poverty and inequality impacts, a central theme is the impact of price and wage changes on disposable income levels. We use total (consumption) expenditures as our measure of disposable income. This choice is mostly data driven as the household expenditure survey presents information on total expenditures and the composition of these expenditures. The remainder of this Annex will be structured in the following way. First, we explain how we model the impact of the DCFTA on disposable income. The next step introduces the various indicators that we use to compare poverty and inequality impacts to the baseline. The third part illustrates key assumptions that were needed when using variables from the household survey data and making them comparable to inputs provided by the CGE model. Finally, we provide the results for the poverty and income inequality impacts of the DCFTA at the household level. These results are intended as a robustness analysis of the DCFTA impacts at the person level provided in the main text. Methodology for micro-simulation of disposable income impacts

The analysis makes use of the 2010 micro-level household budget survey data kindly made available by the Tunisian statistical office (INS). The following potential channels can be identified through which the DCFTA impacts disposable incomes at the household or individual level: 1. Changes in prices affect disposable income, that is they change purchasing power of a given

income level; 2. Changes in prices affect disposable income levels of households as self-sufficient or surplus

production unit; 3. Changes in wages affect disposable income levels by changing labour income. The household survey data are directly concerned only with the first channel, dealing with the expenditure side of the household budget. The survey does not provide information on income generation, such as wage income or income from direct production. This implies that we do not have sufficient information to address the second channel. We address the wage income channel indirectly by making assumptions that are partly based on information about educational attainment available in the household survey data. We simulate the effect of wage and price changes induced by the DCFTA on individual and household disposable income according to the following equation, taken from Chen and Ravallion (2003)12:

12 Some comments on the methodology, in particular on the fact that it does not account for changes in consumption induced

by relative price changes, are provided in De Janvry and Sadoulet (2008). As long as price changes are small, the first order approximation taken from Chen and Ravallion (2003) is accurate. Because the changes in consumption reflect changes in optimal choices by consumers, not taking these into account results in an overestimation (underestimation) of impacts of an increase (decrease) in consumption price changes on disposable income.

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where, W stands for disposable income, pi – price of good i, qi – production of good i within the household, ci – consumption of good i, Lj – labour force of type j in the household, wj – wages of labour force type j. This equation expresses the impact of price and wage changes on a money metric measure of utility or welfare of the individual or household. Technically, the equation is derived by taking the differential equation of the utility function, assuming quantities are unchanged.13 The utility change due to a price or wage change is expressed in equivalent units of income that could be given to or taken from the consumer in a situation where prices are left unchanged. This interpretation of the change in utility follows neatly our indicator of disposable income. Hence, we can express the impact of the price and wages changes into an equivalent change in disposable income. This allows us to compute a “new” level of disposable income at the household and person level that reflects the impact of the DCFTA, much like the computation of the equivalent variation of a price change. These new income or expenditure levels feed into the calculation of the poverty and inequality indicators that summarize key social effects of the DCFTA. The first part of the equation describes changes in the welfare of the household caused by new prices in the economy. It can also be divided into two parts, as it covers two effects: change in expenditures due to new prices for goods produced by the household, and change in the income due to new prices for goods consumed by the household. The second part of the equation is a labour income effect due to new wages. So this approach implies modelling of: consumption effect arising due to changes in prices on products consumed;

and the income effect comprising changes in income due

to new prices on the goods produced and new remuneration in the economy. Indicators of poverty and income inequality

The analysis of social effects presents a set of indicators that measure various aspects of poverty and inequality. The value for each of the indicators in the current situation (baseline) is compared to the value in the short run and the long run upon implementation of the DCFTA. Poverty estimation is based on a comparison of the total expenditures and the poverty line. This line can be set in absolute or relative terms, which determines the type of poverty that is calculated. The absolute poverty line we use is from the INS 2012 data called ‘seuilhaut’, (see INS, 2012). This poverty line is set as a measure of minimum expenditures needed for survival or basic needs coverage. The absolute poverty line has three different values, the highest one for urban areas and intermediate value for semi-urban areas and the lowest value for rural areas. We also use an absolute extreme poverty line in our study, the variable ‘seuilbas’ from the INS data (INS, 2012). This absolute extreme poverty line, just as the absolute poverty line has three values for the different area’s.

13 The model also allows to account for the demand and supply responses to price change by applying a second order Taylor

expansion. However, the effects of price elasticities on consumption and production that determine changes in demand and supply structure are marginal compared to the first-order effect of price change on welfare and may be ignored.

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The relative poverty line is set at 50% of the median total expenditures. Relative poverty shows the share of population which is significantly worse off compared to the median income. To a significant extent it can be thought of as an inequality indicator, as even growth of income among population does not necessarily affect relative poverty. The following poverty and inequality indicators are calculated and reported in the report: Poverty rate

where Y is a poverty line, yi – disposable income of individual i, n – is the sample size including all households or individuals whether poor or not. The poverty rate is a measure for the incidence of poverty among households or individuals. We use the poverty rate for households and for individuals. We compare the baseline poverty with the poverty in the short run, and the poverty in the long run. What we do is, if total expenditures in the baseline is a certain amount, then in the short run if you buy the same amount of goods and services, would you be better or worse of. In other words, would you still be in poverty? Poverty gap (depth of poverty)

To explicitly separate measurement of the incidence of poverty from the measurement of the depth of poverty, we only consider the people who are under the poverty line in calculating the poverty gap. Dispersion around the at-risk-of-poverty threshold is calculated as a percentage of persons, over the total population, with a disposable income below certain level (close to a poverty rate)14. Specifically, in this study we take the values of 80% and 120% of either the relative or absolute poverty line. Gini coefficient

Decile (and quintile) dispersion ratio is calculated as the relationship of total income of the top 10% (20%) of the rich to total income of the bottom 10% (20%) of the poor:

14 See Eurostat (2010). Algorithms to Compute Social Inclusion Indicators based on EU-SILC adopted under the Open

Method of Coordination (OMC), Doc. LC-ILC/39/09/EN-rev.1.

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where d1, d10 are, respectively, the first and the tenth decile, and q1, q5 – the first and the fifth quintile. Assumptions used in the analysis

The key research question in the quantitative social analysis is how changes in prices and wages affect welfare of population at risk of poverty. There are two approaches for this type of research: Model the impact via a change of the poverty line due to the changes in prices; or Model the welfare effect of new prices and wages for the whole sample of households and

relate it to the initial poverty line. We have mostly relied on the second approach, despite the fact that price changes affect purchasing power and hence the poverty line itself as well. Adjustment of the poverty line would require detailed information on composition of the consumption basket used for calculation of the line, as well as price changes of the corresponding products due to the DCFTA. The household survey data and CGE price changes provide insufficient information to do this. In our second approach to poverty rates, relying on the concept of relative poverty, the poverty line itself does change due to the DCFTA, as it is based on median incomes. Taken together, the impact on absolute poverty using a fixed (set of) poverty line(s) and the analysis of relative poverty provide a range of values for the impact of the DCFTA on poverty. This range of effects is deemed sufficient to overcome the shortcomings in each of the individual concepts of poverty and their calculation. Age classification “Provisional Guidelines on Standard international age classifications”, United Nations, New York 1982, Page 9-10 Education classification Classified in the INS data (10 classifications)

How we classified it (7 classifications)

Skill classification

Neant None Less skilled Ecole coranique Koranic school Primaire ancien regime Primary education, former

system / Basic education Enseign de base Sencondaire ancien regime Secondary school (new and

former system) Secondaire nouv regime Formation professionnelle Professional training More skilled Superieur court Higher education (short and

long) Superieur long Cours analphabetisme Illiteracy class Less skilled Because the data used contained no information on methods of income (wages, sales, etc.), the total income of a household is assumed to consist of wages only. Furthermore, the total income in the baseline is set equal to total expenditures. Because no information on in-kind income was available, wages for households with in-kind income are overestimated. For changes in wages we used the less skilled and more skilled changes in wages from the CGE model. To classify the households as less skilled or more skilled, we used educational attainment. As not all people filled

17


in their education, we used the highest skilled member of a household to classify that household as less skilled or more skilled. If no information on education was available for the household, we assume the average wage change applies. Regions For the classifications of the regions we used the same regions used in the data from the INS. Rural/Urban For the classification of rural, peri-urban and urban we used the same classifications as in the data from the INS, this is also used in the study ‘Mesure de la pauvreté des inégalités et de la polarisation en Tunisie 2000-2010’. Expenditures The 12 DPA’s are specified in the data from the INS, the correspondence between the DPA’s and the GTAP sectors from the CGE model are as followed in the below correspondence table. Classified in the INS data, HBS GTAP sectors

used

Price change short

run

Price change

long run

DPA_1 Produits alimentaires et

boissons non

alcoolisees

Grains and crops 5.70 6.32

Vegetables and

fruits

Other crops

Animal products

Fisheries

Processed meats

Vegetable oils

Other processed

foods

DPA_2 Boissons alcoolisees

tabac et stupifiants

Beverages and

tobacco

4.32 3.51

DPA_3 Habillement, articles

chaussures et effets

personnels

Textiles 0.23 -0.03

Wearing apparel

Leather goods

Other

manufactures

DPA_4 Depenses logement,

eau, gaz, electricite et

autres combustibles

Primary energy 0.65 0.65

Utilities

DPA_5 Meubles, articles de

menages et entretien

courant du foyer

Other

manufactures

-2.95 -3.17

DPA_6 Hygiene et soins Consumer

services

-0.22 -0.23

DPA_7 Transport Inland transport 4.36 3.70

DPA_8 Telecommunicatioms Communications 6.68 5.15

DPA_9 Loisirs et culture Consumer

services

-0.22 -0.23

DPA_10 Enseignement Public and other 7.46 8.95

18


services

DPA_11 Vacances, restaurants,

hotels et cafes

Consumer

services

-0.22 -0.23

DPA_12 Autres depenses Utilities 6.82 7.97

Public and other

services

To calculate the percentage change in the short run and the long run for the product groups in the household survey, we used value added shares to weigh DCFTA induced price changes for the GTAP sectors in the CGE model where relevant. The variable ‘conspc’ from the INS data is used as the total expenditures baseline. We assumed a DPA_13 as investments / savings. This is the difference between the total expenditures (conspc) and the total of the 12 DPA’s in the INS data. We assumed DPA_13 (investments / savings) to be unaffected by the DCFTA. Robustness results of DCFTA impacts on poverty and inequality: outcomes at the household level

The table below provides the results of running the simulations at the household level rather than person level for those aspects and breakdown variables that are available at this level. The results are qualitatively in line with the outcomes at the person level that are discussed in the main text of the report. Quantitative differences in the value of indicators for the baseline, as well as in terms of the DCFTA impacts, are limited. Table B 1 Social indicators at the household level: baseline and DCFTA effects

Baseli

ne

Short

run

(total)

Short

run:

Prices

Short

run:

Wages

Long

run:

(total)

Long

run:

Prices

Long

run:

Wages

Poverty rate

Absolute poverty line 13.30 12.1 14.67 10.93 11.05 14.73 10.10

Relative poverty line 14.50 14.7 14.59 14.52 14.69 14.64 14.52

Extreme absolute poverty line 3.80 3.40 4.26 3.06 3.10 4.29 2.81

Poverty gap

Absolute poverty line 25 24 25 24 20 27 18

Inequality indicators

Decile dispersion ratio 11.95 12.08 - - 12.10 - -

Gini coefficient 38.6 38.8 38.7 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.6

Dispersion of poverty around poverty

line

19


Baseli

ne

Short

run

(total)

Short

run:

Prices

Short

run:

Wages

Long

run:

(total)

Long

run:

Prices

Long

run:

Wages

80% of the absolute line 7.30 6.50 7.85 5.85 5.96 7.90 5.40

120% of the absolute line 21.65 19.67 23.20 18.31 18.52 23.25 17.00

80% of the relative line 8.32 8.43 8.39 8.31 8.45 8.41 8.31

120% of the relative line 21.54 21.72 21.68 21.52 21.75 21.69 21.53

Poverty by place of residence (absolute

poverty)

City (grandes villes) 7.63 6.54 8.47 5.63 5.74 8.58 5.13

Medium (moyennes communes) (peri-

urban)

12.51 11.24 13.88 10.09 10.18 13.90 9.33

Rural (zones non-communal) 18.06 16.77 19.80 15.52 15.67 19.88 14.35

Poverty by geographical region (abs)

Grand Tunis (1) 7.39 6.33 7.94 5.28 5.33 8.04 4.78

Nord Est (2) 8.94 7.91 10.11 6.80 6.93 10.17 6.09

Nord Ouest (3) 19.58 18.09 21.57 16.68 16.87 21.64 15.90

Centre Est (4) 5.95 5.14 6.66 4.38 4.52 6.71 4.09

Centre Ouest (5) 26.02 24.39 28.65 22.81 22.75 28.71 21.35

Sud Est (6) 12.54 11.30 14.12 10.55 10.63 14.12 8.97

Sud Ouest (7) 16.09 14.48 17.44 13.29 13.55 17.53 12.19

21


Annex C: Quantitative Environmental Analysis

Our quantitative environmental analysis focused on the effect of DCFTAs on airborne pollutants and greenhouse gases (CO2). We used the methodology that has been applied in the Trade SIA of DCFTAs between the EU and respectively Georgia, Moldova and Armenia, which was introduced in the Trade SIA of an FTA between the EU and Russia15. In a nutshell this approach carefully combines: results of the CGE modelling; extrapolation of emissions based on emission intensities and decomposing of the estimated

change into a scale and sector composition effect; and external costs assessment based on the impact pathway approach.16

Changes in the environmental quality

Quantitative modelling of DCFTA-induced environmental impacts is based on the analysis of the scale and composition effects. These two channels link changes in emissions directly to changes in economic activity. We abstract from changes in underlying technology that may reduce emission intensities per unit of output, since aspects of technological change are not explicitly modelled. We have used value added as indicator of economic activity. This indicator is preferred over gross output, as it is most directly linked to the economic activity performed within a sector itself. Using gross output values instead would run the risk of double counting: assigning too much weight to certain sectors based on their intermediate input use. The emissions resulting from the production of intermediate inputs should be assigned to the respective sectors producing these intermediates. Value added weighting of sectors ensures that this logic is followed. Scale effect The scale effect represents the changes in the emissions resulting from the increased scale of production. All things being equal, emissions are proportional to GDP and increase or decrease by the same factor as economic activity as a whole. The new level of airborne pollutant emission with the scale effect for a given scenario is equal to:

(1)

where is emission of pollutant i in base year, Y is total value added, and is the change in percentages of total value added as compared with the base year. Since we use the changes in GDP as our proxy for the growth in total value added, our final formula for the scale effect is:

15 Dabrowski, M., Dyker, D., Emerson, M., Izryadnova, O., Jarocinska, E., Kudina, A., Maliszewska, M., Ščasný, M., Volkov,

Y., Volovik, N. (2009), Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Russian Federation Economic, Social and Environmental Implications. Report prepared by CASE for DG TRADE, European Commission. Maliszewska, M., Jarocińska, E., Ščasný, M. (2010), Modelling Economic, Social and Environmental Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and The Russian Federation, No 93, CASE Network Reports.

16 EC (2003). External costs: Research results on socio-environmental damages due to electricity and transport. European Commission, Directorate-General for Research. Luxemburg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Preiss P, Friedrich R and Klotz V (2008). Report on the procedure and data to generate averaged/aggregated data. Deliverable n° 1.1 - RS 3a. R&D Project NEEDS – New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability. Prepared for DG Research.

22


(2)

Composition effect As a result of the DCFTA the economic structure of the country is expected to change with activities shifting to less or more pollution intensive sectors to some extent. Environmental impact analysis should take this composition effect into account. For a given scenario, the composition effect for a particular pollutant is:

(3)

where k denotes a sector and y is value added per sector. In an ideal situation, to measure the composition effect with precision we would need emission data of airborne pollutants disaggregated into the same sectors as our CGE model. Given the limited availability of emission data as well as its level of the detail, we had to introduce new economic sectors for the environmental analysis based on the IPCC sources of pollution and aggregate economic and pollution data17. This exercise leaves us with four sectors (Agriculture, Industry, Transport and Utilities) plus a “Rest of Emissions” category assumed to be related to changes to GDP. Consult Table C.1 for the correspondence table between aggregated sectors, CGE model sectors and sources of pollution, as well as for comments and assumptions. Finally the total effect combines the scale and composition effects and demonstrates the net changes in the emissions of airborne pollutants:

(4)

where w is a sector share based on total value added. Since we use the change in GDP as a proxy for changes in total value added. our final equation is:

(5)

Welfare impacts of air pollution

To assess the environmental damages related to the externalities, we quantify and monetize external costs induced by the changes of emissions of airborne pollutants. This exercise enables a quantitative comparison of environmental impacts with other economic and social impacts of the DCFTA. We use the external costs of air pollutants supplied by the projects within the NEEDS framework18. It provides external costs for several impact categories including health, loss of biodiversity, crops and building materials. However, because of the lack of data availability, we only measure health

17 Eurostat (2009), “Manual for Air Emissions Accounts” and Narayanan, B. et al. (2008), “Guide to the GTAP Data Base”. 18 The external costs of pollutants per tonne were derived using Impact Pathway method. For more information on the

method, consult Preiss, P. et al. (2008), ‘Report on the procedure and data to generate averaged/aggregated data’ Downloaded from http://www.needs-project.org/docs/RS3a%20D1.1.zip and other reports within WP1 of RS3a NEEDS project, http://www.needs-project.org.

23


costs. We assume it is reasonable to proceed further with our analysis as human health costs are by far the largest category, constituting around 90 percent of total costs.19 A similar approach was taken in the Trade SIA for Georgia.20 External cost of emission of a particular pollutant is a product of the health costs of that pollutant and the change in the emission as computed by equation (5). The total DCFTA-induced change in external costs is the sum of the products for each pollutant:

(6)

where p denotes a pollutant. The health cost estimates reported in the NEEDS project are in EUR2000. To correct for this, we followed the recommendations in HEATCO 200621 and used the price adjuster based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to recalculate prices from EUR2000 to EUR2011. Data

Emission data comes from the Global Emissions EDGAR v4.2 database, which provides the datasets for all countries and regions (in total 234 entities)22. EDGAR was also consulted in a number of country reports within the project “Analysis for European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Countries and the Russian Federation on social and economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection”. The database provides the emission data for the following classic pollutants: NOx; SO2; PM10.

EDGAR reports emissions using a modelled approach based on publicly available sources such as EMEP statistics, national accounts and academic articles, and as such does not rely only on observed data. The latest available projections are for the year 2008 (latest update: November 2011). Emissions are reported in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) source/sink categories. Consult Table C.2 for an overview of available IPCC source /sink categories and their short descriptions. Within the available IPCC categories, we distinguished three cases: 1. The source can be assigned to a specific sector – emissions are assigned to this sector; 2. The source cannot be assigned to a specific sector, but are related to economic activity in

general. In this case emissions were assumed to grow in the same rate as GDP; 3. The source can’t be assigned to a sector, and is unrelated to economic activity (like e.g.

savannah fires) – in this case emissions are not assigned to any sector; they are assumed to stay constant.

19 Van Breusegem,W. and Soulami, M. 2011. Analysis for European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Countries and the Russian

Federation of social and economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection – Morocco Country Report, funded by the European Commission. Brussels, p. 70.

20 Ecorys and CASE, 2012. Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Georgia and the Republic of Moldova. Final report. Funded by the European Commission, p. A62.

21 “General Issues in Costing Analysis: Units of account, Base years, and Currency conversion”, Annex B to HEATCO Deliverable 5Downloaded from http://heatco.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/HEATCO_D5_Annex.zip.

22 The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=42.

24


EDGAR reports emission of primary particulate matter as PM10 while NEEDS project provides health costs for PPMCo and PPM2.5 separately. Therefore, in order to use health costs within our analysis and following the assumptions in Van Breusegem and Soulami (2011) and Van Acoleyen and Baouendi (2011), we use a 62 percent share of PPM2.5 and 38 percent of PPMCo within PM10. To estimate the costs associated with climate change we rely on CO2 emissions from 2008 used in the CGE model and taken from United States Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). For the health costs per ton per pollutant we use values provided by the NEEDS framework23. Following the recommendations in Preiss et al. (2008), we use values for emission of unknown height of release. This approach reflects previous practices in the Trade SIA of DCFTAs between the EU and Georgia and Russia respectively. As our emission data is from 2008, but the general economic base year is 2011, we specify 2011 as the year of occurrence of the emission. Climate change externalities

For valuating CO2 costs, we rely on the concept of the marginal social cost (MSC) of carbon: this is the cost accruing to society due to the release of an additional unit of carbon emissions (and its impact on climate change). According to the Stern Review, the size of the impact “depends not only on the lifetime of the gas, but also on the size of the stock of greenhouse gases while it is in the atmosphere, and how uncertain climate-change impacts in the future are valued and discounted.”24 It also depends on the valuation of simultaneous impacts in different places. Following from this, estimates for the MSC of carbon depend on several key parameters: Discount rate. Discounting is an approach to account for uncertainty about the future and how

economic subjects (= people) deal with it. Economic studies usually assume that people are risk averse, i.e. they are willing to give up part of their income in order to get a guaranteed income. Risk aversion also means that present income is preferred to future income, because the future income is uncertain. Social time preference is usually modelled using an annual real discount rate between 1 and 10%.25 The social cost over a specified time frame is then calculated as the net present value (NPV) of the costs occurring;

Greenhouse gas emissions. The stock of greenhouse gases changes over time, where the change depends on economic activity and climate policy. Therefore estimates for the MSC of carbon in fact need to be dynamically adjusted to the development of GHG emissions, and they are different for different emission scenarios. Ambitious MSC of carbon estimates additionally take the inherent uncertainty of scenario results into account by using Monte Carlo simulations on the underlying climate impact models;26

Equity weighting. Equity weighting takes into account the different effects climate change has on different world regions – in economic terms. “Economic theory assumes a declining marginal utility of consumption, i.e. the same absolute consumption change results in a smaller welfare change for a rich person than a poor person.”27 Equity weighting takes different income levels in

23 Specifically, the Excel file ExternalCosts_per_unit_emission_080821.xls available with the RS3a NEEDS project, D1.1

deliverable. 24 Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge: University Press. 25 HM Treasury (2011). The Green Book: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government. London: TSO. http://www.hm-

treasury.gov.uk/d/green_book_complete.pdf. 26 See for example Anthoff, D. (2007). Report on marginal external damage costs inventory of greenhouse gas emissions.

NEEDS Delivery n 5.4 – RS 1b. 27 Anthoff, D., Hepburn, C., Tol, R. (2009). Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change. In: Ecological

Economics 68:3, pp. 836–849.

25


different regions and at different times into account and usually leads to significantly larger estimates.

This dependence of MSC estimates on key unknown and changing parameters helps explain the wide range shown in the literature. Tol (2005) collected 103 estimates from 28 published studies, arriving at a median of $14/t and a mean of $93/t (in 1995 US$).28 Anthoff (2007), in a study for the NEEDS report, uses scenario results from the FUND model to calculate MSC of carbon estimates for several emission years with different parameters.29 Depending on the rate of time preference equity weighting and the way of taking into account scenario uncertainties he arrives at values for emissions in the year 2005 ranging from -$34.0 (with a 3% rate of time preference and an equity weighting approach that normalizes to EU income levels) to $993.0 (with a 0% rate of time preference and the same equity weighting approach), each without uncertainty calculations. Given this large range of MSC of carbon estimates and their sensitivity to parameter assumptions, it seemed most reasonable to draw on median values and estimates used in previous reports in order to stay in line and ensure comparability with other results. Taking into account Tol’s median, adjusted to 2011 Euros (14$/t in 1995, equal to 15 € in 2011); the estimate used in the TSIA report for Georgia and Moldova (20 €/t in 2007, equal to 22 € in 2011); and the estimate used in the TSIA report for Russia (20$/t in 2004, equal to 19€/t in 2011), we assume a value of 20€/t (in 2011 Euros) for the marginal social cost of carbon in this report. Definition of sectors

IPCC source/sink categories do not allow mapping the emissions to the particular economic sectors with 100 percent precision. In many cases sectors overlap when considering different sources of pollution. Therefore it is necessary to make some assumptions and compromises regarding the precision of allocation. Table C.1 includes proposed economic sectors for the environmental analysis with their corresponding CGE and IPCC codes as well as comments. CGE sectors were linked to the IPCC codes by at first assigning IPCC codes to NACE 1.1 sectors. following the recommendations in the “Manual for Air Emissions Accounts” by Eurostat30. Then the “Guide to the GTAP Data Base” was consulted to match NACE 1.1 and CGE sectors. Table C.1 Correspondence between IPCC sectors and Trade SIA sectors

Sector in

envi IA

IPCC Trade

SIA sector

Model name Comments

Agriculture 4A.

4B.

4C.

4D1.

GRN grains and crops We exclude the emissions from plants in

agriculture. forestry and aquaculture (1A4)

because of the limited data availability and

overlapping sectors. See page 145 of VOS vegetables and fruit

28 Tol, R. (2005). The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties. In: Energy

Policy 33, pp. 2064-2074. 29 Anthoff, D. (2007). Report on marginal external damage costs inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. NEEDS Delivery n

5.4 – RS 1b. 30 Eurostat (2009), “Manual for Air Emissions Accounts”, Annex 1. “Correspondence between SNAP97 (CRF/NFR) and

NACE rev.1.1” and Annex 2. “Correspondence between 1996 IPCC source categories (CRF/NFR) and SNAP97”.

26


Sector in

envi IA

IPCC Trade

SIA

sector

Model name Comments

4F OCP other crops “Manual for Air Emissions Accounts”.

ANP animal products

FRS forestry products

FSH fisheries

Industry 1A1bc.

1A2.

1B1.

1B2.

2A.

2B.

2C.

2D.

2E.

3

EGY primary energy We exclude Utilities and Transport and

Trade (NACE 50) from 1B2 category.

OMN other minerals

MPT processed meats

VOL vegetable oils

PRF other processed foods

B_T beverages and tobacco

TEX textiles

WAP wearing apparel

LEA leather goods

LUP lumber. paper

P_C petrochemicals

CRP chemicals. rubber. plastics

NMM non metallic mineral products

MET metals

FMP fabricated metals

MVH motor vehicles

OTN other transport equipment

ELE electrical machinery

OME other machinery

OMF other manufactures

CNS construction

27


Sector in

envi IA

IPCC Trade

SIA

sector

Model name Comments

Utilities 1A1a UTI utilities We assume that power plants operated by

other industries are recorded in their

respective industries (see p. 142 of “Manual

for Air Emissions Accounts”). Also. we

exclude fugitive emissions from solid fuels

and oil and gas (IPCC 1B1 and 1B2.

respectively) because we lack detailed data.

Also see p. 156 of “Manual for Air

Emissions Accounts”.

Transport 1A3a.

1A3c.

1A3d.

1A3e

OTP inland transport We include all reported emissions from road

transport without making any distinctions

between emissions from households and

economic sectors.

We exclude stationary combustion in

residential. commercial and public services.

agriculture. forestry. fisheries and other

sectors (IPCC 1A4) because of the limited

data availability and overlapping sectors.

WTP water transport

ATP air transport

Rest of

emissions

1A4.

2F1.

2F2.

2F3.

2F4.

2F5.

2F7.

2F8.

2F9.

6A.

6B.

6C.

6D.

TRD trade We include IPCC 1A4 source Stationary

combustion in residential. commercial and

public services. agriculture. forestry.

fisheries and other sectors because it is not

possible to match them to particular sectors.

CMN communications

FIS finance and insurance

OBS ICT other business services

ROS consumer services

OSG public and other services

Note: The level of detail feasible in this correspondence is driven by the level of aggregation in the EDGAR emission estimates database.

The table below provides detailed information on the IPCC emission sources by codes used. Table C.2 IPCC source /sink categories of air pollution

IPCC

code

Source name Description Comment

1. Energy: Fuel Combustion (1A) and Fugitive emissions from fuel (1B)

1A1a Public electricity and heat

production

Electricity and heat

production. petroleum

refining. fuel transformation

industry. manufacturing

industry.

1A1bc

Other energy industries

1A2 Manufacturing industries and

28


IPCC

code


construction

1A3a Domestic aviation Domestic and international

aviation.

1A3b Road transportation Road transport (including

evaporation).

1A3c Rail transportation Rail transport and other non-

specified non-road

transportation.

1A3d Domestic navigation Domestic and international

navigation.

1A3e Other transportation Rail transport and other non-

specified non-road

transportation.

1A4 Residential and other sectors Stationary combustion in

residential. commercial and

public services. agriculture.

forestry. fisheries and other

sectors.

1B1 Fugitive emissions from solid fuels Production of coal. coke. gas

works and charcoal.

Production of oil and gas.

venting and flaring of gas.

transport and transmission.

oil refining. transport to fuel

stations.

1B2 Fugitive emissions from oil and gas

1C1 Memo: International aviation

1C2 Memo: International navigation

2. Industrial Processes (non-combustion) and 3. Product Use

2A Production of minerals Production of minerals.

chemicals. metals. pulp.

paper. food. Production of

halocarbons and SF6. Air

conditioning. foam blowing.

fire extinguishers. non-

energy use of

lubricants/waxes (CO2) and

solvents.

2B Production of chemicals

2C Production of metals

2D Production of pulp/paper/food/drink

2E Production of halocarbons and SF6

2F1 Refrigeration and air conditioning

2F2 Foam blowing

2F3 Fire extinguishers

2F4 Aerosols

2F5 F-gas as solvent

2F7 Semiconductor/electronics

manufacture

Including FPDs and PV cells

2F8 Electrical equipment

2F9 Other F-gas use

2G Non-energy use of lubricants/waxes

29


IPCC

code


(CO2)

3 Solvent and other product use

4. Agriculture (including Savanna burning)

4A Enteric fermentation Enteric fermentation. manure

management.

4B Manure management

4C Rice cultivation Rice cultivation.

4D1 Direct soil emissions Direct soil emissions. manure

in pasture/range/paddock.

indirect N2O from agriculture.

other direct soil emissions.

4D2 Manure in pasture/range/paddock Enteric fermentation. manure

management.

4D3 Indirect N2O from leaching/runoff in

agriculture

Direct soil emissions. manure

in pasture/range/paddock.

indirect N2O from agriculture.

other direct soil emissions.

4D4 Other direct soil emissions Including CO2 from urea

application and soil liming

4E Savanna burning Large scale biomass burning:

Savanna burning. forest fires.

peat fires. grassland fires.

other vegetation fires. Decay

of wetland/peatland and post

burn decay after forest fires.

Agricultural waste burning.

4F Agricultural waste burning

5. Land Use Change and Forestry

5A Forest fires Large scale biomass burning:

Savanna burning. forest fires.

peat fires. grassland fires.

other vegetation fires. Decay

of wetland/peatland and post

burn decay after forest fires.

Agricultural waste burning.

Including peat fires

5C Grassland fires

5D Decay of wetlands/peatlands Included in 5F2 Post-burn

decay

5F Other vegetation fires

5F2 Forest Fires-Post burn decay Incl. decomposition of

peatlands due to drainage

6. Waste

6A Solid waste disposal on land Solid waste disposal on land

and waste incineration

(without energy recovery).

6B Wastewater handling Emissions from wastewater

handling.

6C Waste incineration Solid waste disposal on land

and waste incineration

(without energy recovery).

6D Other waste handling Emissions from composting

of waste and

processing/storage of

hazardous waste.

30


IPCC

code


7. Other anthropogenic sources

7A Fossil fuel fires Fossil fuel fires. indirect N2O

from non-agricultural NOx.

indirect N2O from non-

agricultural NH3.

Includes underground coal

fires and Kuwait oil fires

7B Indirect N2O from non-agricultural

NOx

7C Indirect N2O from non-agricultural

NH3

7D Other anthropogenic sources

31


Annex D: International Human Rights Treaties

Table D.1 Status of Ratification of International Human Rights Treaties by Tunisia

Treaty Signature Ratification,

Accession (a), Succession

(d)

Entry into

force

Core Human Rights Treaties and their Optional Protocols

International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. New

York, 16 December 1966

30 Apr 1968 18 Mar 1969 23 Mar 1976

-Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil

and Political Rights. New York, 16 December 1966

29 Jun 2011 a 29 Sep 2011

-Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant

on Civil and Political Rights, aiming at the abolition of the

death penalty. New York, 15 December 1989

Not signed

International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural

Rights. New York, 16 December 1966

30 Apr 1968 18 Mar 1969 3 Jan 1976

-Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on

Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. New York, 10

December 2008

Not signed

Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of

Discrimination against Women. New York, 18 December

1979

24 Jul 1980 20 Sep 1985 20 Oct 1985

-Amendment to Article 20 (1) of the Convention on the

Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women.

New York, 22 December 1995

Not signed

-Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Elimination of

All Forms of Discrimination against Women. New York, 6

October 1999

23 Sep 2008 a 23 Dec 2008

Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or

Degrading Treatment or Punishment. New York, 10

December 1984

26 Aug 1987 23 Sep 1988 23 Oct 1988

-Amendment to articles 17(7) and 18(5) of the Convention

against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading

Treatment or Punishment. New York, 8 September 1992

Not signed

-Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture and

Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or

Punishment. New York, 18 December 2002

29 Jun 2011 a 29 Jul 2011

Convention on the Rights of the Child. New York, 20

November 1989

26 Feb 1990 30 Jan 1992 29 Feb 1992

-Amendment to Article 43(2) of the Convention on the

Rights of the Child. New York, 12 December 1995

29 Mar 2001 a

-Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the

Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict.

New York, 25 May 2000

22 Apr 2002 2 Jan 2003 2 Feb 1992


Child on the sale of children, child prostitution and child

pornography. New York, 25 May 2000

22 Apr 2002 13 Sep 2002 13 Oct 2002

32


Treaty Signature Ratification, Accession (a),

Succession

(d)

Entry into force


Child on a communications procedure. New York, 19

December 2011

Not signed

International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of

All Migrant Workers and Members of their Families. New


Not signed

International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms

of Racial Discrimination. New York, 15 January 1992

12 Apr 1966 13 Jan 1967 04 Jan 1969

-Amendment to Article 8 of the International Convention

on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.

New York, 15 January 1992

Not signed

Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

New York, 13 December 2006

30 Mar 2007 2 Apr 2008 3 May 2008

-Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of

Persons with Disabilities. New York, 13 December 2006

30 Mar 2007 2 Apr 2008 3 May 2008

International Convention for the Protection of All Persons

from Enforced Disappearance. New York, 20 December

2006

6 Feb 2007 29 Jun 2011 29 Jul 2011

Other relevant international human rights treaties

War crimes and Crimes against Humanity

Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the

Crime of Genocide. Paris, 9 December 1948

29 Nov 1956 a

Convention on the non-applicability of statutory limitations

to war crimes and crimes against humanity. New York, 26

November 1968

15 Jun 1972 a

Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Rome,

1998

24 Jun 2011 a 1 Sep 2011

Amendment to Article 8 of the Rome Statute of the

International Criminal Court. Kampala, 2010

Not signed

Amendments on the crime of aggression to the Rome

Statute of the International Criminal Court. Kampala, 2010

Not signed

Law of armed conflict

Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition

of the Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field,

1949

4 May 1957

Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition

of Wounded, Sick and Shipwrecked Members of Armed

Forces at Sea, 1949

4 May 1957

Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners

of War, 1949

4 May 1957

Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian

persons in Time of War, 1949

4 May 1957

Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12

August 1949, and Relating to the Protection of Victims of

international Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), 1977

12 Dec 1977 9 Aug 1979

Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 12 Dec 1977 9 Aug 1979

33



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

August 1949, and Relating to the Protection of Victims of

Non-International Armed Conflicts (Protocol II), 1977

Refugee Law

Convention relating to the Status of refugees. Geneva,

1951

24 Oct 1957 d

Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees. New York,

1967

16 Oct 1968 a

Nationality, Statelessness and the Rights of Aliens

Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons.

New York, 1954

29 Jul 1969 a

Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, New York,

1961

12 May 2000 a

Women’s rights

Convention on the Political Rights of Women. New York,

1953

24 Jan 1968 a

Convention on the Nationality of Married Women. New

York, 1957

24 Jan 1968 a

Convention on Consent to Marriage, Minimum Age for

Marriage and Registration of Marriages. New York, 1962

24 Jan 1968 a

Racial Discrimination

International Convention against Apartheid in Sports. New


16 May 1986 25 Sep 1989

International Convention on the Suppression and

Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid. New York, 30

November 1973

21 Jan 1977a

Education

Convention against Discrimination in Education. Paris,

1960

29 Aug 1969

Terrorism and Human Rights

International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages.

New York, 1979

18 Jun 1997 a

International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist

Bombings. New York, 1997

22 Apr 2005 a

International Convention for the Suppression of the

Financing of Terrorism. New York, 1999

2 Nov 2001 10 Jun 2003

International Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful

Seizure of Aircraft. The Hague, 1970

16 Nov 1981 a

International Convention on the Prevention and

Punishment of Crimes Against International Protected

Persons, including Diplomatic Agents, 1973

15 May 1974 21 Jan 1977

International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of

Nuclear Terrorism. New York, 2005

28 Sep 2010 a

Human Trafficking

United Nations Convention against Transnational

Organised Crime. New York, 2000

13 Dec 2000 19 Jun 2003

Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea 13 Dec 2000 14 Jul 2003

34



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

and Air, supplementing the United Nations Convention

against Transnational Organised Crime. New York, 2000

(Smuggling protocol)

Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in

Persons, especially women and children, supplementing

the United Nations Convention against Transnational

Organised Crime. New York, 2000 (Trafficking Protocol)

13 Dec 2000 14 Jul 2003

Convention for the Suppression of the Traffic in Persons

and of the Exploitation of the Prostitution of Others. New

York, 1950

Not signed

Slavery and Slavery-like Practices

Slavery Convention. Geneva, 1926 Not signed

Protocol Amending the Slavery Convention. New York,

1953

Not signed

Supplementary Convention on the Abolition of Slavery,

the Slave Trade and Institutions and Practices Similar to

Slavery. Geneva, 1956

15 Jul 1966 a

Corruption

United Nations Convention against Corruption. New York,

2003

30 Mar 2004 23 Sep 2008

UN Activities and Employees

Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United

Nations. New York, 1946

7 May 1957 a

Convention on the Safety of the United Nations and

Associated Personnel. New York, 1994

22 Dec 1995 12 Sep 2000

Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Safety of the

United Nations and Associated Personnel. New York,

2005

19 Sep 2006 31 Jan 2008

Agreement on the Privileges and Immunities of the

International Criminal Court. New York, 2002

29 Jun 2011 a

ILO Conventions

Elimination of child labour and protection of children and

young persons

ILO Convention No. 138, Minimum Age Convention, 1973

(16 years)

19 Oct 1995

ILO Convention No. 182, Worst Forms of Child Labour

Convention, 1999

28 Feb 2000

ILO Convention No. 77, Medical Examination of Young

Persons (Industry) Convention, 1946

14 Apr 1970


Persons (Non-Industrial Occupations) Convention, 1976

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 90, Night Work of Young Persons

(Industry) Convention (Revised), 1948

26 Apr 1961


Persons (Underground Work) Convention, 1965

03 May 1967

Employment policy and promotion

35



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

ILO Convention No. 88, Employment Service Convention,

1948

11 Oct 1968 In force

ILO Convention No. 122, Employment Policy Convention,

1964

17 Feb 1966 In force

ILO Convention No. 115, Radiation Protection

Convention, 1960

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 120, Hygiene (Commerce and

Officers) Convention, 1964

14 Apr 1970 In force

ILO Convention No. 139, Occupational Cancer

Convention, 1974

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 148, Working Environment (Air

Pollution, Noise and Vibration) Convention, 1977

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 155, Occupational Safety and Health

Convention, 1981

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 159, Vocational Rehabilitation and

Employment (Disabled Persons) Convention, 1983

05 Sep 1989 In force

ILO Convention No. 161, Occupational Health Services

Convention, 1985

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 162, Asbestos Convention, 1986 Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 167, Safety and Health in

Construction Convention, 1988

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 170, Chemicals Convention, 1990 Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 174, Prevention of Major Industrial

Accidents Convention, 1993

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 176, Safety and Health in Mines

Convention, 1995

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 184, Safety and Health in Agriculture

Convention, 2001

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 187, Promotional Framework for

Occupational Safety and Health Convention, 2006

Not ratified

Employment security

ILO Convention No. 97, Migration for Employment

Convention (Revised), 1949

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 143, Migrant workers Convention

(Supplementary Provisions), 1975

Not ratified

Equality of opportunity and treatment

ILO Convention No. 100, Equal Remuneration

Convention, 1951


ILO Convention No. 111, Discrimination (Employment and

Occupation) Convention, 1958


ILO Convention No. 156, Workers with Family

Responsibilities Convention, 1981

Not ratified

Freedom of association, collective bargaining, and

industrial relations

ILO Convention No. 141, Rural Workers’ Organisations

Convention, 1975

Not ratified

36



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

ILO Convention No. 11, Right of Association (Agriculture)

Convention, 1921

15 May 1957 In force

ILO Convention No. 87, Freedom of Association and

Protection of the Rights to Organise Convention, 1948

18 Jun 1957 In force

ILO Convention No. 98, Right to Organise and Collective

Bargaining Convention, 1949


ILO Convention No. 135, Workers’ Representatives

Convention, 1971


ILO Convention No. 151, Labour Relations (Public

Service) Convention, 1978

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 154, Collective Bargaining

Convention, 1981

Not ratified

Labour administration and inspection

ILO Convention No. 81, Labour Inspection Convention,

1947


ILO Convention No. 129, Labour Inspection (Agriculture)

Convention, 1969

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 150, Labour Administration

Convention, 1978


ILO Convention No. 171, Night Work Convention, 1990 Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 175, Part-Time Work Convention,

1994

Not ratified

Tripartite consultation

ILO Convention No. 140, Paid Educational Leave

Convention, 1974

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 142, Human Resources Development

Convention, 1975


ILO Convention No. 144, Tripartite Consultation

(International Labour Standards) Convention, 1976

Not ratified

Vocational guidance and training

ILO Convention No. 102, Social Security (Minimum

Standards) Convention, 1952

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 121, Employment Injury Benefits

Convention, 1964 (1980)

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 128, Invalidity, Old-Age and

Survivors’ Benefits Convention, 1967

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 130, Medical Care and Sickness

Benefits Convention, 1969

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 157, Maintenance of Social Security

Rights Convention, 1982

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 168, Employment Promotion and

Protection against Unemployment Convention, 1988

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 142, Human Resources Development

Convention, 1928


Indigenous Peoples

ILO Convention No. 107, Indigenous and Tribal 17 Dec 1962 In force

37



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

Populations Convention, 1957

ILO Convention No. 169, Indigenous and Tribal Peoples

Convention, 1989

Not ratified

Wages

ILO Convention No. 26, Minimum Wage-Fixing Machinery

Convention, 1928


ILO Convention No. 94, Labour Clauses (Public

Contracts) Convention, 1949

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 95, Protection of Wages Convention,

1949


ILO Convention No. 99, Minimum Wage Fixing Machinery

(Agriculture) Convention, 1951

12 Jan 1959 In force

ILO Convention No. 131, Minimum Wage Fixing

Convention, 1970

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 173, Protection of Workers’ Claims

(Employer’s Insolvency) Convention, 1992

Not ratified

Working time

ILO Convention No. 14, Weekly Rest (Industry)

Convention, 1921


ILO Convention No. 52, Holidays with Pay Convention,

1936


ILO Convention No. 89, Night Work (Women) Convention

(Revised), 1948 (Protocol of 1990 ratified)


ILO Convention No. 106, Weekly Rest (Commerce and

Offices) Convention, 1957


ILO Convention No. 132, Holidays with Pay (Revised)

Convention, 1970

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 110, Plantations Convention, 1958 Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 149, Nursing Personnel Convention,

1977

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 172, Working Conditions (Hotels and

Restaurants) Convention, 1991

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 177, Home Work Convention, 1996 Not ratified

Forced labour

ILO Convention No. 29, Forced Labour Convention, 1930 17 Dec 1962 In force

ILO Convention No. 105, Abolition of Forced Labour

Convention, 1957


Occupational safety and health

ILO Convention No.13, White Lead (Painting) Convention,

1921


ILO Convention No. 45, Underground Work (Women)

Convention, 1935


ILO Convention No. 62, Safety Provisions (Building)

Convention, 1937


ILO Convention No.119, Guarding of Machinery 14 Apr 1970 In force

38



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

Convention, 1963

ILO Convention No. 120, Hygiene (Commerce and

Offices) Convention, 1964


ILO Convention No. 127, Maximum Weight Convention,

1967


ILO Convention No. 174, Prevention of Major Industrial

Accidents Convention, 1993

Not ratified

ILO Convention No. 176, Safety and Health in Mines

Convention, 1995

Not ratified

Social security

ILO Convention No. 12, Workmen’s Compensation

(Agriculture) Convention, 1921



(Accidents) Convention, 1925



(Occupational Diseases) Convention, 1925


ILO Convention No. 19, Equality of Treatment (Accident

Compensation) Convention, 1925


ILO Convention No. 118, Equality of Treatment (Social

Security) Convention, 1962 accepted branches (a) to (g)

and (i)


Social policy

ILO Convention No. 117, Social Policy (Basic Arms and

Standards) Convention, 1962


Seafarers

ILO Convention No. 8, Unemployment Indemnity

(Shipwreck) Convention, 1920


ILO Convention No. 16,Medical Examination of Young

Persons (Sea) Convention, 1921


ILO Convention No. 22, Seamen’s Articles of Agreement

Convention, 1926


ILO Convention No. 23, Repatriation of Seamen

Convention, 1926


ILO Convention No. 55, Shipowners’ Liability (Sick and

Injured Seamen) Convention, 1936


ILO Convention No. 73, Medical Examination (Seafarers)

Convention, 1946


ILO Convention No. 108, Seafarers’ Identity Documents

Convention, 1958


Fishers

ILO Convention No. 113, Medical Examination

(Fishermen) Convention, 1959


ILO Convention No. 114, Fishermen’s Articles of

Agreement Convention, 1959


Final Articles Conventions

ILO Convention No. 116, Final Articles Revision 15 Jan 1962 In force

39



Succession

(d)

Entry into force

Convention, 1961

Regional human rights instruments

European Convention for Protection of Human Rights and

Fundamental Freedoms. Rome, 1950

Not signed

The Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and

Combating Violence against Women and Domestic

Violence, 2011

Not signed

African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, 1981 16 Mar 1983 a

Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee

Problems in Africa, 1969

10 Sep 1969 17 Nov 1989

Protocol to the African Charter on Human and Peoples’

Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa

Not signed

Protocol to the African Charter on Human and Peoples’

Rights on the Establishment of an African Court on

Human and Peoples’ Rights, 1998

9 Jun 1998 21 Aug 2007

African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child 16 Jun 1995

OAU Convention on the Prevention and Combating of

Terrorism, 1999

13 Nov 2001

Protocol to the OAU Convention on the Prevention and

Combating of Terrorism, 2004

18 Dec 2007

African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of Children,

1999

16 Jun 1995

Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam, 1990

Arab Charter on Human Rights (2004)

Covenant on the rights of child in Islam

40


Annex E: Detailed CGE results

Macroeconomic indicators

National Income, million €

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs

spillovers tariffs total goods

NTBs

services

NTBs

spillovers tariffs total

European

Union

472.7 15.7 -117.8 269.3 639.8 1,073.8 23.8 -133.3 380.1 1,344.4

Morocco -1.5 0.0 -1.5 -1.2 -4.2 -2.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -3.8

Tunisia 935.4 17.3 400.9 480.4 1,834.0 1,208.1 27.8 568.4 694.0 2,498.3

Egypt -0.4 -0.1 6.0 -3.7 1.9 -2.1 0.0 4.0 -1.7 0.2

Turkey -9.2 0.0 16.9 -12.4 -4.8 -6.2 -0.1 10.1 -6.4 -2.6

Other Middle

East

-0.9 0.0 2.4 -1.0 0.5 2.7 0.0 4.7 -1.2 6.1

Other North

Africa

-15.9 0.1 19.8 -2.9 1.1 -13.7 0.2 23.2 -1.3 8.5

Other Africa -9.7 -0.1 6.9 -2.3 -5.2 -3.6 0.0 16.1 -4.0 8.4

Rest of World -141.9 0.9 129.1 -73.8 -85.6 -151.1 0.4 212.3 -174.4 -112.7

Equivalent variation, %

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European

Union

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Morocco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Tunisia 3.40 0.06 1.46 1.75 6.67 4.39 0.10 2.06 2.52 9.07

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

-0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

41


GDP, % change

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European

Union

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Morocco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tunisia 1.48 0.07 1.26 1.34 4.14 2.81 0.12 2.10 2.41 7.44

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Exports, % change

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European

Union

0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.05

Morocco -0.05 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.10 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.08

Tunisia 11.93 0.23 1.62 3.90 17.68 13.08 0.27 2.26 4.75 20.36

Egypt -0.02 0.00 0.04 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.04 -0.03 0.00

Turkey -0.02 0.00 0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.04 -0.03 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Imports, % change

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European

Union

0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.05

Morocco -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04

Tunisia 9.76 0.18 1.05 2.92 13.91 11.33 0.23 1.96 4.12 17.65

Egypt -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.02 0.00

Turkey -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.02 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02

42


Imports, % change

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Export, % change

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs

spillovers tariffs total goods NTBs

services NTBs


Tunisia exports to

EU, % change

18.11 0.31 0.75 19.16 38.33 19.95 0.37 1.49 6.97 28.79

EU exports to

Tunisia, % change

16.31 0.40 -5.79 10.90 21.82 18.52 0.47 -5.01 11.26 25.23

Wages, more skilled %

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


European Union 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

Morocco -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02

Tunisia 4.27 0.06 1.42 1.81 7.56 5.49 0.10 2.16 2.75 10.50

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

-0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.01

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wages, less skilled %

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European Union 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Morocco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Tunisia 3.82 0.06 0.99 2.15 7.01 5.02 0.10 1.72 3.09 9.93

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

-0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.00

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wages, average (skilled and unskilled) %

43


short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European Union 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Morocco -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Tunisia 4.05 0.06 1.21 1.98 7.29 5.25 0.10 1.94 2.92 10.21

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

-0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.00

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Terms of trade, % change

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


European Union -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Morocco -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Tunisia 2.24 -0.01 0.02 0.30 2.55 2.07 -0.02 -0.08 0.16 2.13

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

-0.03 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Change in emissions, million MT CO2

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European Union

Million MTC02

0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5

Tunisia Million

MT CO2

0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.3

European Union

%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tunisia% 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.1 1.3 1.9 5.0

World Million

MT

0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.0

World, % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

44


Change in global shipping volumes

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


water 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

air 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06

other

transport

0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06

Change in land use intensity, %

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European

Union

0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00

Tunisia -2.18 0.00 -0.40 2.99 0.41 -1.80 0.02 -0.16 3.30 1.36

Consumer prices, % change

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


European Union 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Morocco 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Tunisia 2.08 -0.03 0.07 0.43 2.55 1.97 -0.03 0.00 0.34 2.27

Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

Turkey 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00

Other Middle

East

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other North

Africa

0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01

Other Africa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sectoral effects

More skilled workers in Tunisia, % change

baseline shares

(based

on wage bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.001 -8.39 -0.01 -2.37 -3.17 -13.95 -8.55 -0.02 -2.48 -3.31 -14.35

vegetables and

fruit

0.005 -1.28 0.01 -0.35 5.34 3.72 -1.06 0.01 -0.21 5.55 4.30

other crops 0.000 -9.91 -0.03 -3.13 3.09 -9.99 -10.10 -0.04 -3.26 2.96 -10.44

animal products 0.001 -4.15 0.02 -0.33 -1.50 -5.97 -3.67 0.04 -0.01 -1.11 -4.75

45



baseline

shares

(based

on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


forestry

products

0.000 3.16 0.65 0.93 0.64 5.38 3.05 0.65 0.87 0.56 5.13

fisheries 0.000 -1.10 0.03 0.21 -0.97 -1.84 -0.62 0.05 0.50 -0.59 -0.66

primary energy 0.003 -2.33 -0.01 -0.67 -1.10 -4.10 -2.09 0.00 -0.53 -0.91 -3.52

other minerals 0.009 -1.60 -0.14 -0.59 -0.79 -3.11 -0.13 -0.08 0.33 0.39 0.51

processed

meats

0.002 -0.20 0.03 -0.21 -1.28 -1.66 -0.97 0.00 -0.68 -1.88 -3.53

vegetable oils 0.001 -3.96 0.00 -1.23 193.44 188.25 -5.45 -0.06 -2.16 190.49 182.82

other processed

foods

0.002 -4.47 0.03 0.01 -2.61 -7.03 -5.01 0.01 -0.34 -3.04 -8.37

beverages and

tobacco

0.005 0.29 0.03 -0.14 -0.36 -0.19 -0.27 0.01 -0.49 -0.81 -1.57

textiles 0.008 -11.15 0.10 -2.41 -5.53 -18.99 -11.10 0.10 -2.36 -5.45 -18.82

wearing apparel 0.010 -2.85 0.03 -1.12 -1.93 -5.86 -3.27 0.02 -1.37 -2.24 -6.86

leather goods 0.003 -10.33 0.06 -2.05 -4.77 -17.09 -9.81 0.09 -1.70 -4.31 -15.73

lumber, paper 0.005 -8.34 0.01 -0.89 -3.27 -12.49 -8.07 0.02 -0.73 -3.04 -11.83

petrochemicals 0.001 -10.99 0.12 -1.52 -5.90 -18.30 -11.60 0.09 -1.94 -6.40 -19.85

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.012 -6.26 0.05 0.85 -5.12 -10.49 -6.23 0.06 0.89 -5.06 -10.35

non metallic

mineral

products

0.003 -10.51 0.09 0.40 -7.29 -17.31 -10.00 0.12 0.78 -6.83 -15.94

metals 0.003 -1.17 0.00 -2.18 -3.16 -6.51 -0.90 0.01 -2.00 -2.90 -5.79

fabricated

metals

0.003 4.10 -0.04 4.23 -1.98 6.32 4.11 -0.03 4.28 -1.91 6.45

motor vehicles 0.002 1.22 0.03 -1.29 -6.68 -6.71 1.50 0.04 -1.08 -6.41 -5.95

other transport

equipment

0.003 18.59 0.04 -1.66 -5.08 11.89 19.05 0.06 -1.38 -4.68 13.06

electrical

machinery

0.006 13.00 0.07 -0.94 -1.95 10.19 13.17 0.08 -0.80 -1.76 10.70

other machinery 0.010 38.59 0.09 1.28 -0.56 39.39 40.07 0.14 2.05 0.45 42.70

other

manufactures

0.001 -1.23 0.04 0.53 -2.40 -3.06 -1.01 0.06 0.68 -2.19 -2.47

utilities 0.014 -2.51 0.00 -1.07 -0.18 -3.76 -3.09 -0.02 -1.42 -0.65 -5.18

construction 0.046 -1.61 -0.21 -0.83 -0.51 -3.16 -0.44 -0.17 -0.11 0.43 -0.29

trade 0.076 4.84 0.03 -0.23 0.74 5.38 3.72 -0.01 -0.88 -0.12 2.71

inland transport 0.033 -4.23 0.16 -1.05 -1.26 -6.37 -5.08 0.13 -1.59 -1.94 -8.48

water transport 0.001 -4.36 0.59 -0.62 -0.62 -5.02 -5.50 0.53 -1.35 -1.55 -7.88

air transport 0.009 -6.90 0.31 -1.12 -1.35 -9.06 -7.86 0.27 -1.75 -2.13 -11.47

communications 0.017 -2.62 0.04 -0.99 -1.50 -5.08 -2.95 0.03 -1.18 -1.75 -5.86

finance and

insurance

0.046 -2.45 -0.21 -0.47 -1.39 -4.52 -2.43 -0.20 -0.45 -1.36 -4.45

46



baseline

shares

(based

on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


ICT other

business

services

0.046 -2.36 -0.07 -0.34 -0.80 -3.57 -2.46 -0.07 -0.40 -0.87 -3.80

consumer

services

0.001 1.79 0.20 1.42 1.98 5.39 2.65 0.23 1.95 2.67 7.50

public and other

services

0.617 0.02 0.01 0.33 0.38 0.74 0.11 0.02 0.38 0.45 0.96

% displacement

(standard

deviation)

1.000 4.85 0.08 0.63 5.20 7.48 4.94 0.08 0.74 5.13 7.57

Less skilled workers in Tunisia, % change

baseline

shares

(based on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


grains and

crops

0.014 -8.34 -0.01 -2.30 -3.23 -13.88 -8.49 -0.02 -2.40 -3.37 -14.29

vegetables and

fruit

0.149 -1.19 0.00 -0.25 5.27 3.84 -0.96 0.01 -0.11 5.48 4.43

other crops 0.005 -9.85 -0.03 -3.04 3.03 -9.90 -10.04 -0.04 -3.18 2.90 -10.35

animal products 0.042 -4.08 0.02 -0.24 -1.58 -5.87 -3.59 0.04 0.09 -1.19 -4.65

forestry

products

0.000 3.25 0.65 1.01 0.57 5.48 3.14 0.65 0.95 0.50 5.23

fisheries 0.002 -1.03 0.03 0.28 -1.03 -1.75 -0.55 0.05 0.58 -0.65 -0.57

primary energy 0.005 -2.26 -0.01 -0.59 -1.17 -4.02 -2.01 0.00 -0.45 -0.97 -3.43

other minerals 0.025 -1.53 -0.14 -0.51 -0.85 -3.03 -0.05 -0.08 0.41 0.33 0.60

processed

meats

0.004 0.18 0.03 0.20 -1.62 -1.22 -0.59 0.00 -0.28 -2.24 -3.10

vegetable oils 0.001 -3.25 0.00 -0.52 194.85 191.07 -4.75 -0.06 -1.46 191.87 185.59

other processed

foods

0.005 -4.16 0.03 0.38 -2.92 -6.67 -4.70 0.01 0.03 -3.36 -8.02

beverages and

tobacco

0.013 0.69 0.03 0.27 -0.70 0.28 0.12 0.01 -0.09 -1.16 -1.12

textiles 0.020 -10.85 0.09 -1.99 -5.94 -18.69 -10.79 0.10 -1.95 -5.88 -18.52

wearing apparel 0.027 -2.44 0.03 -0.68 -2.33 -5.42 -2.86 0.02 -0.93 -2.64 -6.42

leather goods 0.008 -10.02 0.06 -1.63 -5.18 -16.77 -9.48 0.09 -1.27 -4.72 -15.39

lumber, paper 0.014 -8.00 0.01 -0.46 -3.66 -12.12 -7.73 0.02 -0.30 -3.44 -11.45

petrochemicals 0.001 -10.69 0.12 -1.10 -6.31 -17.98 -11.30 0.09 -1.53 -6.82 -19.55

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.021 -5.90 0.05 1.30 -5.55 -10.09 -5.86 0.06 1.34 -5.49 -9.94

non metallic 0.006 -10.20 0.09 0.84 -7.72 -16.99 -9.68 0.12 1.22 -7.27 -15.60

47


Less skilled workers in Tunisia, % change

baseline

shares

(based

on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


mineral

products

metals 0.007 -0.75 0.00 -1.75 -3.57 -6.07 -0.47 0.01 -1.57 -3.31 -5.34

fabricated

metals

0.007 4.61 -0.04 4.75 -2.41 6.91 4.62 -0.03 4.80 -2.35 7.04

motor vehicles 0.005 1.68 0.03 -0.84 -7.13 -6.26 1.97 0.04 -0.62 -6.87 -5.48

other transport

equipment

0.005 19.27 0.04 -1.17 -5.58 12.56 19.74 0.06 -0.89 -5.18 13.73

electrical

machinery

0.009 13.60 0.07 -0.46 -2.39 10.82 13.78 0.08 -0.32 -2.21 11.33

other machinery 0.018 39.52 0.08 1.85 -1.08 40.37 41.03 0.14 2.63 -0.07 43.73

other

manufactures

0.002 -0.80 0.04 0.99 -2.81 -2.57 -0.57 0.05 1.15 -2.61 -1.98

utilities 0.012 -2.10 0.00 -0.63 -0.55 -3.28 -2.68 -0.02 -0.98 -1.03 -4.71

construction 0.107 -1.15 -0.21 -0.34 -0.93 -2.63 0.04 -0.17 0.39 0.01 0.28

trade 0.149 5.49 0.03 0.38 0.24 6.14 4.36 -0.01 -0.29 -0.64 3.43


water transport 0.003 -3.86 0.59 -0.05 -1.11 -4.43 -5.01 0.54 -0.79 -2.05 -7.32

air transport 0.017 -6.44 0.31 -0.56 -1.84 -8.53 -7.41 0.27 -1.20 -2.63 -10.98

communications 0.010 -2.21 0.04 -0.54 -1.89 -4.61 -2.54 0.03 -0.74 -2.15 -5.40

finance and

insurance

0.026 -2.04 -0.21 -0.02 -1.78 -4.05 -2.02 -0.21 0.00 -1.75 -3.97

ICT other

business

services

0.026 -1.95 -0.08 0.12 -1.18 -3.09 -2.04 -0.08 0.06 -1.26 -3.32

consumer

services

0.001 2.26 0.20 1.91 1.61 5.98 3.14 0.23 2.45 2.29 8.11

public and other

services

0.173 0.46 0.01 0.79 0.01 1.27 0.56 0.01 0.85 0.07 1.49

% displacement

(standard

deviation)

1.000 6.78 0.11 0.85 7.53 10.63 6.85 0.09 0.94 7.46 10.66

More skilled workers, % change

baseline

shares

(based on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


grains and

crops

0.059 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.20 -0.16 0.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.20 -0.15

vegetables and

fruit

0.073 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

48



baseline

shares

(based

on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


other crops 0.085 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

animal products 0.088 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06

forestry

products

0.013 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

fisheries 0.005 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02

primary energy 0.108 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other minerals 0.139 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

processed

meats

0.166 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

vegetable oils 0.034 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -1.83 -1.92 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 -1.85 -1.95

other processed

foods

1.025 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

beverages and

tobacco

0.421 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

textiles 0.295 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09

wearing apparel 0.212 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03

leather goods 0.121 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.11

lumber, paper 1.597 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

petrochemicals 0.137 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

2.464 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

non metallic

mineral

products

0.576 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

metals 0.576 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00

fabricated

metals

1.282 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02

motor vehicles 1.304 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

other transport

equipment

0.549 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02

electrical

machinery

0.593 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02

other machinery 4.719 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08

other

manufactures

0.463 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

utilities 1.782 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

construction 4.118 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

trade 5.188 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

inland transport 1.715 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

water transport 0.143 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04

air transport 0.232 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

communications 2.794 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

49



baseline

shares

(based

on wage

bill)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


finance and

insurance

5.653 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ICT other

business

services

17.772 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

consumer

services

4.102 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

public and other

services

39.396 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

% displacement

(standard

deviation)

100.000 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04

Less skilled workers, % change

baseline

shares

short-run long-run

(based

on wage

bill)

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.677 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.20 -0.16 0.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.20 -0.15

vegetables and

fruit

0.780 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

other crops 0.902 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

animal products 0.981 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06

forestry

products

0.179 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

fisheries 0.053 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02

primary energy 0.148 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other minerals 0.235 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

processed

meats

0.441 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03

vegetable oils 0.093 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -1.83 -1.91 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 -1.85 -1.95

other processed

foods

2.496 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

beverages and

tobacco

0.856 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

textiles 0.834 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09

wearing apparel 0.744 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03

leather goods 0.381 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.11

lumber, paper 3.229 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

petrochemicals 0.097 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

chemicals, 3.188 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

50


Less skilled workers, % change

baseline

shares

short-run long-run

(based on wage

bill)

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


rubber, plastics

non metallic

mineral

products

1.337 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

metals 1.272 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.00

fabricated

metals

2.906 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02

motor vehicles 2.463 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

other transport

equipment

1.046 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02

electrical

machinery

0.754 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02

other machinery 5.870 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08

other

manufactures

1.128 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

utilities 1.137 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

construction 9.756 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

trade 10.255 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


water transport 0.289 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04

air transport 0.464 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

communications 1.793 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

finance and

insurance

3.595 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ICT other

business

services

11.264 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

consumer

services

2.607 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

public and other

services

22.148 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

% displacement

(standard

deviation)

100.000 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.07

51


Changes in value added, Tunisia (% change)

baseline

shares

(based

on total

value added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.008 -8.13 -0.01 -2.25 -3.38 -13.77 -8.18 -0.02 -2.28 -3.44 -13.91

vegetables and

fruit

0.081 -0.93 0.00 -0.20 4.93 3.80 -0.57 0.02 0.03 5.25 4.73

other crops 0.003 -9.55 -0.03 -2.97 2.77 -9.78 -9.61 -0.04 -3.02 2.74 -9.93

animal products 0.023 -3.84 0.02 -0.19 -1.80 -5.82 -3.23 0.04 0.21 -1.32 -4.29

forestry

products

0.000 1.45 0.29 0.45 0.29 2.49 1.52 0.29 0.50 0.36 2.68

fisheries 0.006 -0.68 0.02 0.20 -0.64 -1.10 -0.09 0.04 0.55 -0.17 0.33

primary energy 0.055 -1.43 0.00 -0.37 -0.68 -2.48 -0.99 0.01 -0.11 -0.33 -1.42

other minerals 0.039 -0.86 -0.08 -0.28 -0.45 -1.67 0.13 -0.04 0.32 0.34 0.75

processed

meats

0.004 0.28 0.02 0.26 -1.28 -0.72 1.19 0.06 0.82 -0.57 1.50

vegetable oils 0.002 -3.48 -0.01 -0.55 220.79 216.75 -1.84 0.05 0.43 223.99 222.63

other processed

foods

0.005 -4.25 0.03 0.45 -2.79 -6.56 -3.42 0.06 0.98 -2.13 -4.50

beverages and

tobacco

0.014 0.82 0.03 0.33 -0.29 0.88 1.99 0.07 1.05 0.62 3.74

textiles 0.017 -11.45 0.10 -2.08 -5.89 -19.33 -9.98 0.16 -1.09 -4.65 -15.56

wearing apparel 0.022 -2.53 0.03 -0.68 -2.05 -5.24 -1.40 0.08 0.04 -1.12 -2.40

leather goods 0.011 -10.74 0.06 -1.70 -5.07 -17.45 -8.24 0.17 -0.04 -2.98 -11.09

lumber, paper 0.020 -8.57 0.00 -0.43 -3.42 -12.43 -6.29 0.09 1.05 -1.55 -6.70

petrochemicals 0.005 -11.64 0.12 -1.13 -6.31 -18.95 -10.00 0.19 -0.03 -4.97 -14.81

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.023 -6.26 0.05 1.44 -5.46 -10.23 -4.41 0.13 2.68 -3.97 -5.56

non metallic

mineral

products

0.003 -10.42 0.09 0.82 -7.70 -17.21 -9.41 0.14 1.54 -6.85 -14.58

metals 0.006 -0.74 -0.01 -1.83 -3.35 -5.93 1.29 0.08 -0.59 -1.74 -0.97

fabricated

metals

0.004 4.76 -0.04 4.90 -2.22 7.40 5.72 0.00 5.54 -1.45 9.82

motor vehicles 0.006 1.91 0.02 -0.85 -7.17 -6.09 4.35 0.12 0.66 -5.34 -0.20

other transport

equipment

0.004 20.68 0.04 -1.23 -5.48 14.01 23.28 0.13 0.18 -3.69 19.89

electrical

machinery

0.010 14.74 0.07 -0.46 -2.04 12.31 17.16 0.16 0.92 -0.28 17.96

other machinery 0.009 40.51 0.08 1.83 -0.85 41.58 42.98 0.17 3.08 0.77 47.00

other

manufactures

0.002 -0.77 0.04 1.12 -2.53 -2.14 1.37 0.13 2.48 -0.82 3.16

utilities 0.025 -2.19 -0.01 -0.63 0.00 -2.83 -0.57 0.06 0.39 1.32 1.20

construction 0.059 -1.19 -0.23 -0.37 -0.66 -2.45 1.10 -0.14 1.05 1.17 3.18

52


Changes in value added, Tunisia (% change)

baseline

shares

(based

on total

value added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


trade 0.192 6.25 0.03 0.50 1.03 7.81 8.03 0.10 1.56 2.39 12.07

inland transport 0.057 -3.97 0.17 -0.49 -1.32 -5.61 -2.80 0.22 0.25 -0.36 -2.70

water transport 0.003 -4.14 0.64 0.00 -0.57 -4.06 -3.06 0.69 0.68 0.31 -1.37

air transport 0.017 -6.93 0.33 -0.57 -1.39 -8.56 -5.84 0.38 0.14 -0.47 -5.79

communications 0.021 -2.33 0.03 -0.56 -1.47 -4.33 -0.56 0.11 0.56 -0.04 0.06

finance and

insurance

0.049 -2.15 -0.23 0.00 -1.35 -3.74 -0.07 -0.15 1.31 0.32 1.41

ICT other

business

services

0.045 -2.05 -0.09 0.14 -0.72 -2.72 -0.15 -0.01 1.33 0.81 1.98

consumer

services

0.000 2.06 0.20 1.70 1.77 5.73 2.93 0.23 2.24 2.46 7.86

public and other

services

0.155 0.24 0.01 0.56 0.29 1.10 0.63 0.02 0.80 0.59 2.04

53


Changes in value added, EU (% change)

baseline

shares

(based on

total value

added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.004 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.19 -0.15 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.19 -0.14

vegetables and

fruit

0.004 -0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

other crops 0.005 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03

animal products 0.006 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06

forestry

products

0.002 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

fisheries 0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

primary energy 0.006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other minerals 0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

processed

meats

0.005 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04

vegetable oils 0.001 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -1.93 -2.03 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 -1.95 -2.06

other processed

foods

0.019 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03

beverages and

tobacco

0.008 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

textiles 0.005 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.10

wearing apparel 0.004 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03

leather goods 0.002 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.15 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.12

lumber, paper 0.024 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

petrochemicals 0.002 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.029 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

non metallic

mineral

products

0.010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

metals 0.009 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.01

fabricated

metals

0.018 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02

motor vehicles 0.016 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

other transport

equipment

0.006 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

electrical

machinery

0.007 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02

other machinery 0.043 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08

other

manufactures

0.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

utilities 0.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

construction 0.075 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

trade 0.074 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

54


Changes in value added, EU (% change)

baseline

shares

(based on

total value

added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs



water transport 0.003 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05

air transport 0.003 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03

communications 0.025 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

finance and

insurance

0.043 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

ICT other

business

services

0.239 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

consumer

services

0.034 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

public and other

services

0.213 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Changes in output, EU (% change)

baseline shares

(based

on total value

added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.004 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.19 -0.15 0.05 0.00 -0.01 -0.19 -0.14

vegetables and

fruit

0.004 -0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00

other crops 0.005 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03

animal products 0.006 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06

forestry

products

0.002 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

fisheries 0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

primary energy 0.006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other minerals 0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

processed

meats

0.005 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04

vegetable oils 0.001 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -1.94 -2.03 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 -1.96 -2.06

other processed

foods

0.019 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03

beverages and

tobacco

0.008 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

textiles 0.005 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.10

wearing apparel 0.004 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03

leather goods 0.002 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.15 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12

lumber, paper 0.024 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

55


Changes in output, EU (% change)

baseline

shares

(based

on total

value added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


petrochemicals 0.002 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.029 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

non metallic

mineral

products

0.010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

metals 0.009 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.01

fabricated

metals

0.018 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01

motor vehicles 0.016 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02

other transport

equipment

0.006 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

electrical

machinery

0.007 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03

other machinery 0.043 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.08

other

manufactures

0.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

utilities 0.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

construction 0.075 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

trade 0.074 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01


water transport 0.003 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05

air transport 0.003 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03

communications 0.025 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

finance and

insurance

0.043 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

ICT other

business

services

0.239 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

consumer

services

0.034 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

public and other

services

0.213 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

56


Changes in output, Tunisia (% change)

baseline

shares

(based

on total

value added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

0.008 -8.05 -0.01 -2.22 -3.29 -13.58 -8.08 -0.01 -2.25 -3.33 -13.67

vegetables and

fruit

0.081 -0.87 0.00 -0.18 5.03 3.99 -0.49 0.02 0.06 5.37 4.95

other crops 0.003 -9.52 -0.03 -2.96 2.85 -9.66 -9.57 -0.04 -3.01 2.83 -9.78

animal products 0.023 -3.76 0.02 -0.16 -1.72 -5.62 -3.13 0.05 0.26 -1.22 -4.05

forestry

products

0.000 2.67 0.49 0.87 0.68 4.72 2.76 0.49 0.93 0.76 4.94

fisheries 0.006 -0.63 0.03 0.26 -0.65 -0.99 0.00 0.05 0.64 -0.15 0.55

primary energy 0.055 -1.44 0.00 -0.37 -0.68 -2.49 -1.00 0.01 -0.10 -0.33 -1.42

other minerals 0.039 -0.82 -0.09 -0.27 -0.42 -1.60 0.33 -0.04 0.43 0.50 1.22

processed

meats

0.004 0.57 0.02 0.32 -1.24 -0.32 1.42 0.06 0.85 -0.58 1.75

vegetable oils 0.002 -3.04 -0.01 -0.43 222.74 219.27 -1.49 0.05 0.50 225.78 224.85

other processed

foods

0.005 -3.98 0.03 0.53 -2.68 -6.09 -3.18 0.06 1.05 -2.04 -4.10

beverages and

tobacco

0.014 0.98 0.03 0.38 -0.23 1.16 2.14 0.07 1.09 0.67 3.97

textiles 0.017 -11.19 0.10 -2.02 -5.78 -18.88 -9.72 0.17 -1.03 -4.54 -15.13

wearing apparel 0.022 -2.16 0.03 -0.60 -1.88 -4.61 -1.03 0.08 0.11 -0.96 -1.81

leather goods 0.011 -10.48 0.07 -1.64 -4.94 -16.99 -8.00 0.18 0.01 -2.87 -10.69

lumber, paper 0.020 -8.29 0.00 -0.36 -3.28 -11.92 -6.04 0.10 1.11 -1.42 -6.26

petrochemicals 0.005 -11.34 0.13 -1.02 -6.18 -18.42 -9.77 0.19 0.02 -4.89 -14.45

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

0.023 -5.87 0.05 1.56 -5.25 -9.50 -4.03 0.13 2.79 -3.77 -4.88

non metallic

mineral

products

0.003 -10.25 0.10 0.91 -7.62 -16.86 -9.18 0.15 1.68 -6.71 -14.07

metals 0.006 -0.25 0.00 -1.66 -3.13 -5.04 1.77 0.08 -0.42 -1.53 -0.11

fabricated

metals

0.004 5.38 -0.04 5.16 -1.94 8.56 6.38 0.00 5.83 -1.13 11.08

motor vehicles 0.006 2.32 0.02 -0.74 -6.99 -5.38 4.74 0.12 0.76 -5.17 0.46

other transport

equipment

0.004 21.22 0.04 -1.07 -5.29 14.90 23.83 0.13 0.34 -3.50 20.80

electrical

machinery

0.010 15.29 0.07 -0.35 -1.80 13.21 17.69 0.17 1.02 -0.05 18.82

other machinery 0.009 41.49 0.09 2.02 -0.55 43.05 44.12 0.18 3.34 1.15 48.79

other

manufactures

0.002 -0.30 0.04 1.26 -2.28 -1.28 1.83 0.13 2.61 -0.59 3.98

utilities 0.025 -1.90 -0.01 -0.53 0.14 -2.30 -0.31 0.06 0.47 1.43 1.64

construction 0.059 -0.85 -0.22 -0.26 -0.48 -1.81 1.42 -0.13 1.15 1.33 3.76

57


Changes in output, Tunisia (% change)

baseline

shares

(based

on total

value added)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


trade 0.192 6.40 0.03 0.54 1.09 8.06 8.16 0.10 1.58 2.44 12.29

inland transport 0.057 -3.79 0.17 -0.44 -1.22 -5.27 -2.62 0.22 0.29 -0.27 -2.37

water transport 0.003 -3.77 0.69 0.11 -0.36 -3.32 -2.71 0.73 0.78 0.51 -0.69

air transport 0.017 -6.65 0.34 -0.49 -1.23 -8.04 -5.57 0.39 0.21 -0.32 -5.29

communications 0.021 -2.25 0.04 -0.53 -1.43 -4.18 -0.49 0.11 0.58 -0.01 0.19

finance and

insurance

0.049 -2.10 -0.23 0.02 -1.33 -3.64 -0.02 -0.15 1.33 0.34 1.50

ICT other

business

services

0.045 -1.95 -0.08 0.17 -0.67 -2.53 -0.06 0.00 1.36 0.85 2.14

consumer

services

0.000 2.61 0.21 1.90 2.08 6.80 3.61 0.25 2.51 2.87 9.24

public and other

services

0.155 0.36 0.01 0.60 0.35 1.32 0.77 0.03 0.85 0.67 2.31

Changes in total imports, EU (% change)

Gross value

c.i.f.

(million euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

20,927.8 0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.44 -0.44 0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.45 -0.43

vegetables and

fruit

41,482.5 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03

other crops 20,778.5 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.04

animal products 12,632.1 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04

forestry

products

6,136.9 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

fisheries 7,944.1 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

primary energy 301,670.3 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04

other minerals 47,405.8 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02

processed

meats

40,278.3 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02

vegetable oils 18,152.0 0.08 0.00 -0.02 1.78 1.84 0.09 0.00 -0.02 1.80 1.87

other processed

foods

146,204.5 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.03

beverages and

tobacco

40,934.7 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01

textiles 101,735.5 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.03

wearing apparel 92,583.1 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03

leather goods 53,274.2 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02

58


Changes in total imports, EU (% change)

Gross

value c.i.f.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


lumber, paper 185,143.6 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02

petrochemicals 161,393.7 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

631,215.8 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03

non metallic

mineral

products

56,452.2 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03

metals 280,773.6 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.00

fabricated

metals

118,274.3 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.06

motor vehicles 445,632.5 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02

other transport

equipment

104,089.0 0.07 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.09

electrical

machinery

277,706.9 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.03

other machinery 607,026.6 0.12 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.13 0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.15

other

manufactures

80,213.7 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.05

utilities 38,254.8 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.01

construction 28,314.2 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01

trade 110,355.4 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00

inland transport 111,516.8 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00

water transport 36,017.4 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

air transport 84,985.1 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

communications 47,897.6 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00

finance and

insurance

122,409.4 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01

ICT other

business

services

344,394.0 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01

consumer

services

54,940.4 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.02

public and other

services

42,302.2 -0.02 0.01 -0.02 0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 -0.02

59


Changes in total imports, Tunisia (% change)

Gross

value c.i.f.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

856.6 7.36 0.04 1.66 6.64 15.70 8.26 0.08 2.21 7.38 17.93

vegetables and

fruit

53.2 15.17 0.11 5.01 15.47 35.76 17.57 0.19 6.44 17.56 41.76

other crops 137.2 3.11 0.04 0.64 3.21 6.99 4.14 0.08 1.27 4.06 9.56

animal products 81.0 33.10 0.16 3.16 27.10 63.52 36.95 0.30 5.32 30.31 72.87

forestry

products

10.5 -5.87 0.03 -1.57 -3.39 -10.79 -4.06 0.11 -0.41 -1.92 -6.28

fisheries 31.6 17.30 0.07 3.92 7.36 28.65 18.99 0.13 4.94 8.61 32.67

primary energy 277.9 4.34 0.08 9.93 -3.42 10.92 6.23 0.15 11.21 -1.99 15.60

other minerals 287.7 2.79 -0.47 0.32 -0.05 2.59 8.24 -0.29 3.64 4.20 15.79

processed

meats

24.8 92.77 0.35 17.43 70.25 180.80 98.25 0.53 20.35 74.95 194.08

vegetable oils 267.4 1.54 0.02 -1.54 16.40 16.42 2.59 0.07 -0.92 17.34 19.07

other processed

foods

395.0 13.07 0.03 2.59 6.44 22.13 13.93 0.06 3.08 7.10 24.17

beverages and

tobacco

120.0 16.65 0.06 3.45 7.77 27.93 16.97 0.07 3.62 7.99 28.65

textiles 1,935.2 4.36 0.02 0.23 0.91 5.52 5.27 0.05 0.77 1.62 7.72

wearing apparel 326.7 15.41 0.03 2.66 6.38 24.48 15.83 0.04 2.88 6.67 25.42

leather goods 416.9 13.75 0.03 1.61 6.21 21.59 14.25 0.04 1.83 6.55 22.67

lumber, paper 651.9 14.83 -0.03 2.12 5.99 22.92 15.18 -0.02 2.27 6.21 23.64

petrochemicals 1,729.1 2.89 0.12 0.27 1.49 4.77 3.84 0.15 0.83 2.24 7.06

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

2,288.6 10.83 0.02 2.70 4.93 18.48 12.01 0.06 3.38 5.83 21.28

non metallic

mineral

products

172.9 9.18 -0.02 3.25 1.85 14.26 10.88 0.04 4.28 3.16 18.37

metals 1,628.0 9.46 -0.05 0.06 -0.04 9.43 11.21 0.01 1.08 1.29 13.59

fabricated

metals

472.4 13.81 -0.10 -1.49 2.80 15.02 16.17 -0.02 -0.19 4.57 20.54

motor vehicles 1,085.3 13.67 0.03 0.88 3.00 17.59 15.44 0.09 1.87 4.32 21.73

other transport

equipment

273.5 24.11 0.04 3.35 5.83 33.34 25.92 0.10 4.34 7.12 37.49

electrical

machinery

1,025.5 15.59 0.00 0.49 2.09 18.18 17.66 0.07 1.63 3.62 22.99

other machinery 4,201.1 8.60 0.01 -1.38 -0.25 6.97 10.88 0.09 -0.08 1.47 12.37

other

manufactures

244.6 14.43 0.04 1.93 6.51 22.91 15.56 0.08 2.55 7.35 25.54

utilities 253.7 10.03 0.28 6.19 2.70 19.20 10.27 0.29 6.34 2.85 19.76

construction 440.3 7.01 2.27 2.19 3.36 14.83 12.12 2.53 5.27 7.35 27.27

trade 157.7 22.98 3.43 7.32 13.20 46.93 22.61 3.41 7.11 12.85 45.99

60


Changes in total imports, Tunisia (% change)

Gross

value c.i.f.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs



water transport 220.2 1.19 -0.21 0.00 -0.57 0.42 2.44 -0.16 0.76 0.41 3.46

air transport 241.0 8.34 1.03 2.16 2.56 14.09 9.38 1.08 2.78 3.34 16.58

communications 35.2 22.19 3.16 6.89 9.75 41.99 21.23 3.11 6.33 8.97 39.64

finance and

insurance

182.6 21.54 3.10 7.05 10.02 41.70 21.42 3.09 6.96 9.87 41.34

ICT other

business

services

173.6 13.31 2.53 4.36 6.51 26.72 13.81 2.56 4.64 6.86 27.86

consumer

services

74.6 2.15 -0.36 -0.41 -0.85 0.52 3.54 -0.32 0.43 0.22 3.87

public and other

services

178.2 16.71 1.43 6.98 7.30 32.42 19.94 1.57 8.88 9.72 40.10

Changes in domestic producer prices, EU (% change)

Base index

short-run long-run

goods NTBs

services NTBs


services NTBs


grains and crops 100 0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 -0.15 -0.05

vegetables and

fruit

100 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01

other crops 100 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.01

animal products 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

forestry products 100 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05

fisheries 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.02

primary energy 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

other minerals 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

processed

meats

100 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

vegetable oils 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

other processed

foods

100 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

beverages and

tobacco

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

textiles 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

wearing apparel 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

leather goods 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.04

lumber, paper 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

petrochemicals 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

non metallic 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

61


Changes in domestic producer prices, EU (% change)

Base

index

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


mineral products

metals 100 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

fabricated

metals

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

motor vehicles 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other transport

equipment

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

electrical

machinery

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

other machinery 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

other

manufactures

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

utilities 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

construction 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

trade 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

inland transport 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00

water transport 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

air transport 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

communications 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

finance and

insurance

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ICT other

business

services

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

consumer

services

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

public and other

services

100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Changes in domestic producer prices, Tunisia (% change)

Base

index

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and crops 100 -3.35 0.04 -0.66 14.15 10.18 -1.62 0.12 0.44 15.89 14.83

vegetables and

fruit

100 5.97 0.03 1.06 2.59 9.64 7.05 0.07 1.71 3.44 12.27

other crops 100 6.43 0.03 1.49 2.26 10.21 7.54 0.07 2.15 3.11 12.87

animal products 100 5.86 0.04 0.97 1.99 8.85 4.41 -0.02 0.10 0.84 5.33

forestry products 100 -3.78 -0.27 -1.54 -2.69 -8.28 1.27 -0.10 1.56 1.31 4.05

fisheries 100 2.11 0.01 0.08 1.43 3.63 2.24 0.01 0.16 1.55 3.96

primary energy 100 4.07 0.02 0.60 3.53 8.23 4.39 0.03 0.80 3.82 9.04

other minerals 100 2.82 0.02 0.18 3.27 6.28 3.10 0.03 0.34 3.52 6.99

processed meats 100 3.25 0.02 0.41 2.34 6.02 3.54 0.03 0.59 2.58 6.74

vegetable oils 100 2.97 -0.11 -0.25 0.12 2.73 2.97 -0.11 -0.26 0.12 2.72

62


Changes in domestic producer prices, Tunisia (% change)

Base

index

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


other processed

foods

100 3.24 0.01 0.84 0.39 4.49 3.38 0.01 0.94 0.49 4.82

beverages and

tobacco

100 1.44 0.00 -0.17 -0.10 1.17 1.44 0.00 -0.17 -0.09 1.18

textiles 100 1.82 -0.20 -0.26 0.07 1.44 3.94 -0.13 1.04 1.74 6.59

wearing apparel 100 2.68 0.01 0.33 1.44 4.46 2.76 0.02 0.39 1.52 4.68

leather goods 100 3.38 0.00 0.29 2.18 5.85 3.25 0.00 0.21 2.08 5.53

lumber, paper 100 2.29 0.00 0.07 0.67 3.02 2.15 -0.01 -0.02 0.55 2.67

petrochemicals 100 4.15 0.01 0.56 1.43 6.14 3.75 -0.01 0.32 1.11 5.16

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

100 2.19 -0.01 0.16 0.49 2.83 2.02 -0.02 0.05 0.35 2.40

non metallic

mineral products

100 1.81 0.00 0.11 0.28 2.20 1.65 -0.01 0.01 0.15 1.81

metals 100 2.39 -0.01 0.24 0.39 3.02 2.05 -0.02 0.03 0.11 2.17

fabricated metals 100 2.41 -0.01 0.17 0.32 2.89 2.04 -0.02 -0.05 0.02 1.99

motor vehicles 100 2.07 -0.01 -0.18 0.27 2.16 1.83 -0.02 -0.32 0.08 1.57

other transport

equipment

100 1.31 -0.01 -0.11 -0.47 0.71 1.07 -0.02 -0.26 -0.66 0.14

electrical

machinery

100 3.06 -0.02 0.24 0.72 4.00 2.95 -0.03 0.17 0.63 3.72

other machinery 100 0.75 0.00 -0.91 -0.45 -0.61 0.63 -0.01 -0.98 -0.56 -0.92

other

manufactures

100 0.43 0.00 -0.96 -0.65 -1.17 0.43 0.00 -0.96 -0.66 -1.19

utilities 100 1.78 0.00 -0.19 -0.20 1.39 1.48 -0.01 -0.37 -0.44 0.65

construction 100 2.20 0.00 -0.50 0.04 1.73 1.99 -0.01 -0.62 -0.13 1.23

trade 100 1.60 -0.01 -0.03 -0.35 1.21 1.39 -0.02 -0.16 -0.51 0.71

inland transport 100 1.84 -0.01 -0.27 -0.20 1.36 1.64 -0.02 -0.40 -0.37 0.86

water transport 100 0.99 0.00 -0.31 -0.52 0.16 0.78 -0.01 -0.44 -0.69 -0.36

air transport 100 2.72 0.00 -0.05 0.60 3.27 2.29 -0.02 -0.31 0.25 2.21

communications 100 2.31 -0.08 -0.13 0.36 2.47 2.98 -0.06 0.28 0.89 4.09

finance and

insurance

100 4.61 -0.01 0.65 1.52 6.76 4.09 -0.03 0.34 1.11 5.51

ICT other

business

services

100 3.74 0.00 0.49 1.04 5.28 3.44 -0.01 0.30 0.79 4.52

consumer

services

100 1.71 -0.38 -0.17 -0.14 1.02 1.50 -0.38 -0.29 -0.31 0.51

public and other

services

100 2.43 -0.04 0.16 0.33 2.88 2.15 -0.05 -0.01 0.10 2.20

63


Changes in total exports, EU (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and crops 18,217.4 0.27 0.00 -0.06 0.04 0.26 0.30 0.00 -0.04 0.06 0.31

vegetables and

fruit

30,321.8 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02

other crops 16,911.5 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.04 0.07

animal products 13,876.8 0.19 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.36 0.21 0.00 0.03 0.17 0.41

forestry

products

4,633.3 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

fisheries 5,831.4 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.14

primary energy 26,231.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

other minerals 29,489.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03

processed

meats

39,570.1 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10

vegetable oils 11,622.4 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -1.62 -

1.70

0.00 0.00 -0.08 -1.63 -1.71

other processed

foods

145,088.0 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06

beverages and

tobacco

58,866.8 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05

textiles 73,972.3 0.13 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.17 0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.07 0.20

wearing apparel 54,963.3 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.11

leather goods 37,832.5 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.25 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.24

lumber, paper 197,500.5 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07

petrochemicals 104,454.3 0.08 0.00 -0.03 0.05 0.10 0.09 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.14

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

641,952.6 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.03 0.05

non metallic

mineral products

60,143.3 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05

metals 217,721.6 0.04 0.00 -0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.00 -0.04 0.04 0.05

fabricated

metals

122,164.7 0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.00 -0.02 0.02 0.04

motor vehicles 504,012.0 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

other transport

equipment

121,055.7 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05

electrical

machinery

174,945.8 0.06 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09

other machinery 763,851.9 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.03 -

0.01

0.01 0.00 -0.04 0.03 0.00

other

manufactures

64,804.3 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07

utilities 24,694.2 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.03

construction 40,303.3 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.17

trade 117,968.5 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04

64


Changes in total exports, EU (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


inland transport 93,831.0 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

water transport 43,041.0 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06

air transport 95,256.5 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

communications 41,997.8 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

finance and

insurance

168,459.6 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03

ICT other

business

services

394,424.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

consumer

services

60,130.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

public and other

services

54,079.3 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04

Changes in total exports, Tunisia (% change)

Gross value

f.o.b.

(million euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

19.3 -1.41 -0.05 3.18 -9.36 -7.63 -2.12 -0.08 2.70 -9.95 -9.45

vegetables and

fruit

261.6 4.11 -0.05 -0.23 0.88 4.72 3.36 -0.08 -0.69 0.24 2.83

other crops 11.9 -3.48 -0.09 2.58 -14.80 -15.79 -4.80 -0.15 1.71 -15.84 -19.07

animal products 11.3 6.07 -0.06 0.86 -7.51 -0.63 5.18 -0.09 0.31 -8.19 -2.79

forestry

products

3.3 7.64 0.38 1.16 1.39 10.57 7.66 0.37 1.16 1.40 10.60

fisheries 37.8 3.02 -0.01 0.17 -0.48 2.69 2.86 -0.02 0.05 -0.59 2.30

primary energy 1298.4 6.30 -0.05 2.37 1.26 9.89 6.27 -0.05 2.33 1.20 9.75

other minerals 150.2 0.04 0.09 0.25 -0.03 0.35 -0.93 0.06 -0.34 -0.79 -2.01

processed

meats

21.0 12.32 -0.13 2.41 -16.35 -1.76 11.48 -0.16 1.85 -16.98 -3.82

vegetable oils 326.6 3.52 -0.01 0.15 230.18 233.85 4.88 0.05 0.94 232.79 238.66

other processed

foods

415.5 3.18 0.02 3.02 1.32 7.54 3.72 0.04 3.35 1.74 8.85

beverages and

tobacco

42.1 -2.17 -0.01 0.75 -0.59 -2.02 -1.73 0.01 1.02 -0.23 -0.94

textiles 842.5 -2.35 0.08 -0.81 -2.93 -6.01 -1.34 0.12 -0.18 -2.12 -3.52

wearing apparel 2385.4 0.21 0.02 -0.59 -1.64 -1.99 1.14 0.06 -0.01 -0.89 0.30

leather goods 709.5 -4.06 0.05 -1.38 -2.50 -7.88 -1.89 0.14 0.00 -0.73 -2.47

lumber, paper 375.9 -7.66 0.03 0.60 -1.38 -8.41 -6.13 0.09 1.64 -0.06 -4.46

65


Changes in total exports, Tunisia (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


petrochemicals 96.2 0.72 0.04 2.67 -0.83 2.59 1.46 0.07 3.13 -0.25 4.41

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

1426.1 10.88 0.04 7.48 2.50 20.90 12.25 0.09 8.34 3.55 24.23

non metallic

mineral

products

171.8 0.93 0.07 3.56 -2.39 2.18 1.31 0.09 3.80 -2.08 3.12

metals 273.1 22.38 0.03 7.54 2.90 32.85 23.36 0.06 8.10 3.60 35.12

fabricated

metals

361.1 19.47 0.01 10.20 4.27 33.95 19.54 0.01 10.25 4.34 34.14

motor vehicles 371.6 28.56 0.01 2.63 0.88 32.08 30.38 0.07 3.59 2.12 36.16

other transport

equipment

262.7 51.83 0.02 5.79 -0.67 56.96 54.28 0.10 6.98 0.81 62.17

electrical

machinery

881.5 30.11 0.07 0.65 2.83 33.66 32.25 0.14 1.73 4.30 38.42

other machinery 3189.7 52.41 0.08 3.18 1.35 57.02 54.77 0.15 4.29 2.81 62.02

other

manufactures

146.2 17.06 0.02 4.88 3.46 25.41 18.71 0.08 5.85 4.70 29.34

utilities 23.8 -11.68 1.89 0.67 -2.51 -11.64 -10.01 1.99 1.82 -1.05 -7.25

construction 131.2 -6.26 1.00 0.73 -0.96 -5.48 -7.90 0.93 -0.36 -2.31 -9.65

trade 514.9 -11.95 0.96 -1.35 -3.89 -16.23 -10.78 1.02 -0.56 -2.87 -13.19


water transport 120.4 -3.73 1.75 0.61 0.32 -1.05 -3.29 1.77 0.90 0.70 0.09

air transport 846.4 -5.98 0.92 -0.07 -0.78 -5.91 -5.34 0.95 0.35 -0.23 -4.26

communications 124.6 -12.61 1.32 -1.70 -3.98 -16.96 -11.11 1.41 -0.68 -2.68 -13.06

finance and

insurance

271.0 -13.20 0.84 -1.84 -4.30 -18.49 -11.84 0.92 -0.90 -3.11 -14.94

ICT other

business

services

319.8 -12.18 1.07 -1.52 -3.78 -16.42 -11.03 1.13 -0.74 -2.78 -13.41

consumer

services

40.3 -2.63 1.24 1.72 1.04 1.37 -2.62 1.25 1.73 1.06 1.41

public and other

services

365.8 -12.64 0.56 -1.94 -4.29 -18.31 -14.00 0.50 -2.85 -5.41 -21.77

66


Changes in EU exports to Tunisia (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

229.6 14.15 0.04 -4.26 9.95 19.88 24.38 0.15 -3.92 24.66 45.27

vegetables and

fruit

15.5 18.72 0.09 -0.30 18.76 37.27 37.74 0.33 2.65 40.18 80.90

other crops 33.7 13.11 0.04 -9.05 4.16 8.27 18.07 0.13 -9.82 18.56 26.93

animal products 71.7 22.69 0.10 1.21 24.02 48.02 38.26 0.30 5.06 31.57 75.19

forestry

products

4.2 0.48 0.03 -7.86 -7.34 -14.69 2.20 0.11 -6.88 4.41 -0.15

fisheries 21.7 14.23 0.06 2.80 17.09 34.18 19.91 0.14 4.66 9.26 33.97

primary energy 0.0 30.26 0.08 -15.95 14.37 28.76 32.56 0.15 -15.04 24.29 41.96

other minerals 41.3 3.95 -0.47 -0.77 2.71 5.42 9.45 -0.29 2.49 5.41 17.07

processed

meats

7.4 50.60 0.19 3.44 54.20 108.43 266.64 1.28 30.85 216.95 515.72

vegetable oils 60.8 14.88 0.02 -14.82 0.08 0.16 22.20 0.10 -19.53 49.30 52.07

other processed

foods

208.3 16.61 0.03 -1.47 15.19 30.37 22.56 0.08 -0.53 14.00 36.11

beverages and

tobacco

76.1 16.15 0.05 1.82 18.00 36.01 19.65 0.07 2.37 10.15 32.23

textiles 1,302.8 6.67 0.02 -2.07 4.59 9.20 7.60 0.05 -1.55 3.94 10.05

wearing apparel 229.6 17.58 0.03 0.44 18.02 36.06 18.11 0.04 0.65 8.94 27.74

leather goods 356.2 15.17 0.03 0.14 15.33 30.67 15.75 0.04 0.36 8.04 24.19

lumber, paper 474.3 16.76 -0.03 0.47 17.21 34.41 17.12 -0.02 0.64 8.13 25.86

petrochemicals 1,250.4 5.36 0.12 -2.20 3.28 6.56 6.34 0.15 -1.64 4.74 9.59

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

1,623.8 17.79 0.02 -4.22 13.52 27.10 19.09 0.06 -3.64 12.90 28.41

non metallic

mineral

products

117.8 12.58 -0.02 0.00 12.44 25.00 14.28 0.04 0.99 6.55 21.86

metals 692.1 22.06 -0.05 -12.34 9.62 19.29 24.02 0.01 -11.47 14.06 26.62

fabricated

metals

315.5 20.65 -0.10 -8.19 12.32 24.68 23.18 -0.02 -7.00 11.56 27.72

motor vehicles 787.0 19.33 0.03 -4.86 14.47 28.97 21.28 0.09 -3.96 10.15 27.57

other transport

equipment

130.6 45.72 0.04 -18.29 27.41 54.88 47.89 0.10 -17.57 29.06 59.48

electrical

machinery

847.0 20.47 0.00 -4.42 16.03 32.08 22.69 0.07 -3.37 8.63 28.02

other machinery 2,585.0 21.58 0.01 -14.26 7.29 14.61 24.21 0.09 -13.19 14.76 25.88

other

manufactures

175.2 19.97 0.04 -3.65 16.33 32.69 21.21 0.08 -3.09 12.99 31.20

utilities 13.8 9.89 10.86 -4.39 16.31 32.67 10.26 10.94 -4.28 13.48 30.40

construction 213.3 6.97 5.70 -1.23 11.42 22.86 12.12 6.10 1.71 10.90 30.83

trade 77.8 22.99 7.13 3.62 33.66 67.41 22.60 7.10 3.44 16.53 49.67

67


Changes in EU exports to Tunisia (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs



water transport 122.1 1.16 2.62 -2.82 0.96 1.93 2.44 2.70 -2.09 3.27 6.31

air transport 123.6 8.23 4.28 -1.06 11.42 22.87 9.37 4.38 -0.49 6.63 19.88

communications 16.7 21.74 6.92 3.07 31.64 63.37 21.23 6.94 2.53 12.79 43.50

finance and

insurance

96.6 21.19 6.47 3.62 31.20 62.49 21.40 6.53 3.54 13.29 44.76

ICT other

business

services

95.9 13.14 5.61 1.28 19.98 40.01 13.80 5.69 1.53 9.97 30.99

consumer

services

33.0 2.16 3.20 -3.94 1.41 2.83 3.53 3.28 -3.15 3.80 7.46

public and other

services

51.2 16.70 6.46 2.02 25.12 50.30 19.92 6.69 3.81 14.83 45.26

Changes in total Tunisia exports to EU (% change)

Gross value

f.o.b.

(million euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and

crops

7.8 7.61 -0.06 0.41 7.95 15.91 10.44 -0.10 -1.39 -13.80 -4.85

vegetables and

fruit

166.3 6.48 -0.07 -1.74 3.96 8.63 5.94 -0.12 -2.82 0.94 3.94

other crops 4.8 7.74 -0.11 -0.15 7.42 14.90 6.55 -0.19 -2.33 -18.17 -14.15

animal products 7.2 9.48 -0.08 -1.37 7.97 15.99 9.97 -0.13 -2.58 -11.59 -4.32

forestry

products

3.1 5.79 0.49 1.15 7.44 14.87 5.76 0.48 1.11 1.39 8.74

fisheries 22.3 3.74 -0.02 -1.93 1.72 3.51 4.00 -0.03 -2.21 -1.15 0.61

primary energy 1,264.0 5.44 -0.05 2.39 7.79 15.58 5.37 -0.06 2.34 1.29 8.95

other minerals 94.4 -1.26 0.29 0.36 -0.62 -1.22 -4.17 0.18 -1.47 -2.43 -7.90

processed

meats

12.3 21.31 -0.14 -2.64 18.56 37.10 33.84 -0.20 -5.07 -21.55 7.02

vegetable oils 156.8 6.04 -0.01 -1.41 4.61 9.23 17.13 0.09 -4.22 483.65 496.66

other processed

foods

180.2 12.52 0.02 -0.14 12.36 24.75 15.57 0.06 0.06 5.87 21.56

beverages and

tobacco

12.8 -0.96 -0.02 -1.17 -2.12 -4.26 -0.13 0.02 -0.70 0.87 0.06

textiles 788.1 -3.75 0.09 -1.05 -4.69 -9.40 -2.62 0.14 -0.39 -2.45 -5.32

wearing apparel 2,306.3 -1.13 0.03 -0.76 -1.90 -3.77 -0.14 0.07 -0.12 -1.02 -1.21

leather goods 655.9 -5.42 0.05 -1.77 -7.08 -14.21 -2.98 0.16 -0.24 -0.82 -3.88

lumber, paper 126.9 -4.25 0.03 -0.97 -5.13 -10.33 -2.31 0.12 0.29 -0.08 -1.97

68


Changes in total Tunisia exports to EU (% change)

Gross

value f.o.b.

(million

euro)

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


petrochemicals 42.5 7.19 0.05 0.73 8.00 15.98 8.22 0.09 1.35 -0.35 9.31

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

487.5 42.76 0.05 0.81 43.62 87.24 44.88 0.13 1.87 4.68 51.55

non metallic

mineral

products

55.9 17.21 0.12 -1.27 16.11 32.17 17.82 0.14 -0.92 -3.29 13.75

metals 195.2 32.29 0.04 7.30 39.64 79.28 33.45 0.08 7.97 4.40 45.90

fabricated

metals

197.4 37.39 0.01 8.07 45.50 90.97 37.47 0.02 8.11 5.43 51.03

motor vehicles 305.7 33.93 0.01 1.17 35.14 70.25 36.36 0.09 2.34 2.65 41.45

other transport

equipment

238.3 55.49 0.03 5.17 60.73 121.42 58.34 0.11 6.53 0.91 65.89

electrical

machinery

847.4 29.82 0.08 0.31 30.26 60.46 32.15 0.16 1.52 4.87 38.69

other machinery 2,973.2 53.75 0.09 2.66 56.41 112.90 57.18 0.18 3.91 3.24 64.50

other

manufactures

95.5 28.27 0.02 2.54 30.89 61.72 30.42 0.10 3.65 5.58 39.74

utilities 11.9 -14.16 3.75 0.22 -10.12 -20.31 -12.14 3.88 1.63 -1.26 -7.89

construction 44.3 -8.44 2.62 0.46 -5.33 -10.70 -10.62 2.48 -1.00 -3.09 -12.23

trade 210.8 -15.78 2.24 -2.17 -15.66 -31.38 -14.44 2.37 -1.21 -3.83 -17.11


water transport 58.3 -6.34 3.78 0.62 -1.90 -3.85 -5.61 3.83 1.11 1.19 0.51

air transport 326.5 -8.73 2.44 -0.59 -6.84 -13.73 -7.82 2.50 0.03 -0.32 -5.62

communications 71.7 -16.76 2.24 -2.61 -17.05 -34.18 -14.77 2.35 -1.22 -3.54 -17.18

finance and

insurance

96.4 -17.57 2.25 -2.96 -18.21 -36.49 -15.73 2.35 -1.69 -4.10 -19.17

ICT other

business

services

135.3 -16.22 2.36 -2.49 -16.28 -32.64 -14.68 2.45 -1.42 -3.67 -17.33

consumer

services

16.6 -3.70 2.71 1.89 0.94 1.85 -3.59 2.79 1.88 1.45 2.52

public and other

services

96.9 -16.75 2.14 -3.12 -17.66 -35.38 -18.52 2.03 -4.32 -7.13 -27.93

Changes in Tunisia Consumer prices (% change)

Base index

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


grains and crops 100 0.17 0.00 -0.44 -0.16 -0.43 0.22 0.01 -0.41 -0.12 -0.31

vegetables and

fruit

100 4.07 0.02 0.60 3.53 8.23 4.39 0.03 0.80 3.81 9.04

other crops 100 -0.97 0.00 -1.39 -0.97 -3.33 -0.96 0.00 -1.39 -0.97 -3.33

69


Changes in Tunisia Consumer prices (% change)

Base

index

short-run long-run

goods

NTBs

services

NTBs


NTBs

services

NTBs


animal products 100 1.76 0.01 0.29 1.00 3.06 1.97 0.02 0.42 1.17 3.59

forestry products 100 -1.06 0.00 -1.58 -1.18 -3.82 -1.06 0.00 -1.58 -1.18 -3.82

fisheries 100 2.24 0.01 0.68 -0.14 2.79 2.36 0.01 0.76 -0.06 3.07

primary energy 100 0.91 0.00 -0.80 -0.06 0.05 0.91 0.00 -0.79 -0.06 0.07

other minerals 100 1.60 -0.18 -0.37 0.03 1.08 3.47 -0.11 0.78 1.51 5.65

processed

meats

100 2.37 0.01 0.26 1.20 3.84 2.45 0.02 0.31 1.27 4.04

vegetable oils 100 -1.18 0.00 -1.91 -1.21 -4.30 -1.18 0.00 -1.91 -1.21 -4.30

other processed

foods

100 0.11 0.00 -0.32 -0.72 -0.93 0.04 0.00 -0.36 -0.77 -1.09

beverages and

tobacco

100 3.14 0.01 0.34 0.84 4.32 2.81 -0.01 0.14 0.57 3.51

textiles 100 0.64 -0.01 -0.12 -0.20 0.31 0.57 -0.01 -0.17 -0.26 0.12

wearing apparel 100 0.83 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 0.61 0.73 -0.01 -0.13 -0.22 0.37

leather goods 100 0.42 0.00 -0.01 -0.58 -0.17 0.27 -0.01 -0.11 -0.71 -0.56

lumber, paper 100 1.39 0.00 0.04 -0.15 1.27 1.13 -0.01 -0.13 -0.36 0.64

petrochemicals 100 -1.12 0.00 -0.60 -1.62 -3.35 -1.18 -0.01 -0.64 -1.67 -3.50

chemicals,

rubber, plastics

100 -1.43 0.00 -0.75 -2.18 -4.36 -1.52 -0.01 -0.81 -2.25 -4.58

non metallic

mineral products

100 0.23 -0.01 -0.28 -0.85 -0.91 0.18 -0.01 -0.31 -0.89 -1.03

metals 100 -0.18 0.00 -1.41 -0.86 -2.45 -0.25 -0.01 -1.45 -0.91 -2.62

fabricated

metals

100 -0.55 0.00 -1.02 -1.25 -2.81 -0.55 0.00 -1.02 -1.25 -2.83

motor vehicles 100 -1.99 0.00 -0.93 -2.60 -5.52 -2.07 0.00 -0.99 -2.66 -5.72

other transport

equipment

100 -0.65 0.00 -1.92 -1.40 -3.96 -0.70 0.00 -1.96 -1.45 -4.11

electrical

machinery

100 -1.99 0.00 -0.49 -2.42 -4.90 -2.02 0.00 -0.52 -2.45 -5.00

other machinery 100 -2.63 0.00 -1.75 -2.76 -7.14 -2.64 0.00 -1.75 -2.77 -7.16

other

manufactures

100 -0.81 0.00 -0.66 -1.49 -2.95 -0.89 -0.01 -0.71 -1.56 -3.17

utilities 100 2.56 -0.01 -0.17 0.56 2.93 2.15 -0.03 -0.42 0.23 1.94

construction 100 2.09 -0.17 -0.23 0.22 1.92 2.69 -0.16 0.14 0.69 3.36

trade 100 4.44 -0.05 0.58 1.43 6.41 3.95 -0.07 0.29 1.03 5.20

inland transport 100 3.33 -0.08 0.28 0.84 4.36 3.06 -0.09 0.11 0.62 3.70

water transport 100 0.94 -0.76 -0.54 -0.64 -1.00 0.83 -0.77 -0.61 -0.73 -1.27

air transport 100 1.00 -0.69 -0.57 -0.54 -0.80 0.89 -0.69 -0.64 -0.63 -1.07

communications 100 4.69 -0.08 0.64 1.44 6.68 4.06 -0.10 0.26 0.94 5.15

finance and

insurance

100 4.81 -0.13 0.70 1.49 6.87 4.24 -0.15 0.35 1.03 5.48

ICT other

business

services

100 4.78 -0.06 0.71 1.51 6.94 4.27 -0.08 0.40 1.09 5.68