Welcome to:How To Interpret the

New PANDA and Write an Effective Standards

and Achievement Section of the SEF.

Trainer: Geoff Hancock

Session 1

The New Style PandA Explained

What the new Panda contains

• The final version of the 2004 new-style PANDA report contains the following four sections:– Summary– Contextual information about the school,

including attainment on entry– Contextual value added (CVA) information– Attainment information, including subject

detail at KS4 and 16+

The new PANDA uses a wider range of data in a greater variety of ways than previous ones

Fairer comparisons are soughtPresentation is in a wider range of formatsPANDAs comprise a series of subsections - each starting with page 1!

(Please note and refer to the handwritten numbering on the PANDA used for this

course)

The basis of the new PANDA

• to inform you about the types of data analyses in the PANDA report

• to help you find the data you need quickly• to assist you in interpreting a school’s

performance data• to demonstrate how the data inform

inspection judgements• to enable you to pick out inclusion issues

and pupils to follow up

Aims of the day:

Which inspection judgements do the data inform

• The data in the PANDA report inform the judgements on:– standards– progress.

• Taken together, these underpin the judgement ‘How well do learners achieve?’

What are the key features of the data?

• The main differences from the previous PANDA report are:– more robust analyses based on statistical

tests– removal of benchmark groups– use of contexts to account for pupils’

characteristics and consequently isolate school effectiveness

– greater use of pupil-level data.

What are the key features of the data?

• a quick overview through graphs, backed up by diagnostic information for groups and subjects that shows where strengths and weaknesses in standards and progress lie.

What’s in and what’s out.

• overall information on standards in comparison with national averages.

• provide contextual value added (CVA) scores based on individual pupils’ results. CVA calculations take into account factors that affect pupils’ achievements such as gender, age and ethnicity, as well as prior attainment, so offer a robust way of isolating and evaluating the progress brought about by the school.

The new-style PANDA report does not provide benchmark grades;

Pandas

• uses significance tests to pick out only the performance we are 95% confident is different from the national average.

• These tests identify different proportions of schools as significantly different from average for each set of attainment or CVA analyses.

• For CVA analyses of overall average points score (APS) and for individual subject APS, roughly the:

• top quarter of schools shows progress that is significantly above national average (sig+)

• middle half of schools shows progress that is not significantly different from national average

• lowest quarter of schools shows progress that is significantly below national average (sig-).

Free schools meals is a contextual factor. It can be a useful indicator but is may well give unreliable impressions if used to make precise distinctions on its own. Prior attainment is another contextual factor - though not always recognised as such. New PANDAs use a range of contextual factors when calculating the value-added or progress made by pupils. The key ones are:GenderAgeWhether pupil joined the school with majority of pupilsEthnicitySeveral prior attainment indicators EALIn care/not in careSeveral SEN indicatorsIDACI score of pupils’ postcodes (Income of Deprivation Affecting Children Index) Shows the proportion of under-16s from low income households.

Contextual Value Added Indicators

Contextual Value Added Indicators

• For CVA analyses of overall average points score (APS) and for individual subject APS, roughly the:

• top quarter of schools shows progress that is significantly above national average (sig+)

• middle half of schools shows progress that is not significantly different from national average

• lowest quarter of schools shows progress that is significantly below national average (sig-).

• Consequently, the fact that a school has sig+ CVA distinguishes it from those with sig- or not significant CVA, but does not distinguish it from the other 25% of schools that also have sig+ CVA.

There is a great wealth of data presented in numerous forms. Some are familiar others are new. The best way to get an initial picture is to consider these examples:

A Line graphs e.g. p3B Bar graphs for results e.g. p4C Comparative tables e.g. p5 and p9 (Note the use of shading and “significant change” arrows at foot of page) D Conversion Tables e.g. p6 and p10(Note how many pupils go from Level 4b to Level 5+ in Maths; then look at English)

New graphs, new statistics, new analyses

E Contextual Tables with distribution graphse.g. p12

(How does pupil mobility/stability look?)F “Before and after” bar graphs for prior attainmente.g.p16

(Please note small print at top right of each box) G “Snake curve” graph for CVAe.g.p 19 and 25H Quadrant graphs

e.g.p 19 and 25J Multiple CVA charts e.g.p 21 and 27K Cumulative Distribution graphs e.g.p 35L Summary Tables with RPI ratingse.g.p 40

(Please note the 3 lines of small print at top)

Attainment

• Analyses of attainment shown by APS, much higher proportions of schools have results significantly different from average.

• For overall APS, this is between 65% and 85% of schools.

• Consequently, the fact that a school has sig- overall attainment does not distinguish it from the other roughly 30% to 40% of schools with sig- attainment.

• Tables 18 and 19 in the Reference booklet show the proportions of schools significantly different from average for each key stage, for both APS and level threshold analyses.

Graphs of attainment results

• The graphs of attainment results do not show the confidence interval.

• For attainment, the size of the confidence interval depends upon the variation between individual pupils’ results as well as the size of the cohort.

• A significance test is carried out to find whether the confidence interval would fall completely above or below the national average.

Session 2How to Interpret standards at

Key Stages

Standards means the ‘attainment’ of pupils – it compares the attainment reached in a particular

school to National percentages

Judging Standards

When evaluating standards and progress you need to consider the:

–results in relation to the national average –educational importance of the results–statistical significance–variation between key stages, subjects, groups and individual pupils.

Attainment on Entry

Judgements on targets, progress and provision need to be informed by prior attainment data. The prior attainment of pupils who have completed the key stage in the past and are likely to have left the school will have had an impact on the results for the past five years. It does not necessarily reflect the attainment on entry of pupils currently in the school. It is important to describe the attainment on entry of all current pupils and any difference with previous cohorts for which standards and achievement are already known.

What does this page tell you?

From the prior attainment of pupils in KS3 the trend for Years 7 to 9 in 2004 is shown by the difference in average point scores (APS) which is for Y9 (+0.6), Y8 (+1.0) and Y7 (+0.9). On average this equates to an APS difference of approximately (+0.83), which is classed as average (since it falls within 1.25 points of the national average).

Prior attainment:

Overall, attainment on entry to Key Stage 3 for Years 7 to 9 in 2004 is average.

Previous descriptor

well below average

below average

broadly average above average

well above average

New descriptor

Exceptionally low Broadly average Exceptionallyhigh

KS1 2+ 1 to 2 less than 1 1 to 2 2+

KS2 2.5+ 1.25 to 2.5 less than 1.25 1.25 to 2.5 2.5+

KS3 3+ 1.5 to 3 less than 1.5 1.5 to 3 3+

Key Stage 4\Prior attainment

What does this page tell you?

For Years 11 and 10 in 2004 we see the KS2 and 3 APS on entry. This also allows us to see if attainment on entry to KS4 is higher or lower than would be expected, ie an indication of whether sufficient value has been added in KS3. It also allows you to see the attainment on entry of the last Y10 (now current Y11) attainment on entry at both Key Stages, which is helpful in re-evaluating targets in comparison with previous performance.

Specifically:From Key Stage 2 attainment data, a broadly average attainment on entry, though with more students than average at Level 4 (27-30 average points).From Key Stage 3 results, an above average attainment on entry to KS4 with significantly higher than national Level 6, though slightly less Level 7s than national.The KS3 prior attainment for the 2004 KS4 results give the following differences from national, Y11 (KS3 APS diff = +2.0) above average, for a cohort who entered KS3 average (ie +1.1 points above national – within tolerance). For Y10 in 2004 (KS3 APS diff +3.2) well above average for a cohort who entered KS3 broadly average (+0.4 points, equates to within tolerance). This suggests for the Years 10 and 11 in 2004 there was an average intake to KS3. However, for Year 10 in 2004 they entered KS4 well above average, higher than the Year 11 in 2004 who entered KS4 above average.

Standards, trends and targets

• To make a preliminary judgement on the standards reached by pupils

• To interpret the graphs of standards at thresholds and identify potential inclusion issues

• To identify trends in standards over the last five years• To pick out the main strengths and weaknesses in

standards• To evaluate whether targets are adequately

challenging.

Inspectors must

• Inspectors must form a judgement for the school overall on ‘the standards reached by learners’.

• ‘Inspectors should evaluate:– the standards learners reach as indicated by their

test and examination results, and other available evidence, taking account of: any significant variations between groups of learners, subjects, courses and key stages; trends over time; and comparisons with all schools

– whether learners achieve their targets and whether the targets are adequately challenging.’

Grade Importance educationally Statistical significance Variation between key stages, subjects and groups

1 Exceptionally high (as in the rough guide) i.e. highly positive on all measures

Sig+ on all measures if a large cohort, not necessarily sig+ for a very small cohort as long as consistent over time

Consistently high performance

2 No example of exceptionally low or large negative for a key stage, subject or group, even for small groups; no examples of large negatives for individuals without a convincing explanation; some positives

No examples of sig- for groups, no other important examples of sig-

No large variation that includes substantially below average performance (learners with learning difficulties and disabilities should not have notably lower CVA than others)

3 The only example of large negative being for a very small group or a few individuals

4 Exceptionally low (as in the rough guide) i.e. large negative at a key stage or for a core subject, a number of courses or any group of a significant size

Sig- if a large cohort or group, not necessarily sig- for a very small cohort if consistently low over time

Consistently very low performance or varying with a very low key stage, subject, group or significant number of individuals

Steps to take when reading tables and graphs deciding judgements on standards and progressFirstly, do your data indicators appear in each column for grade 4 to be present?Secondly, do your data indicators appear in each column for grade 1 to be present?Thirdly, do your data indicators appear in each column for grade 2 to be present?

The simplified approachWhen evaluating standards and progress you need to consider the:Results in relation to the national averageEducational importance of the resultsStatistical significanceVariation between key stages, subjects, groups and individual pupils

What do they mean?The pale box means that value is significantly higher than average and is also represented in other tables as ‘Sig+’The darker box means that value is significantly lower than average and is also represented in other tables as ‘Sig-’

Evaluating standards at Key Stage 3 (3 year summary)

Fig.1.a

Fig.1.b

Overall in 2003 English was:Above the national average at Level 5+ compared to all schools.Overall in 2004 English was:In line with the national average in terms of average points score. (from fig 1a)In line with the national average at Level 5+ compared to all schools (from fig 1b)In line with the national average at Level 6+ compared to all schools (from fig 1b)At level 7+ English was below average, though not significantly (from fig 1b).From 2000 to 2003 the attainment of English at KS3 has been significantly above the national, until 2004 when it fell in line with the national

What does this page tell you?Here we see five highlighted groups. Those groups which are not highlighted are in line with the national average. Of the five highlighted groups, four are significantly higher than average, ie all pupils CVA in 2003, non-FSM and non-SEN, along with prior attainment only (AAT) in 2004 for non-SEN students. The only group here to be significantly lower was the FSM group in terms of prior attainment only. The question would then arise as to why these groups were better or worse than average.

Session 3

Achievement: How to identify achievement (progress) for the

subjects, the school and individual groups of learners

Progress is the new name for achievement. This is a grade for the rate at which pupils make progress in

their understanding and is relative to what they could do when they started

Grade Descriptors• Outstanding (1) - Progress is at least good in all or nearly all

respects and is exemplary in significant elements, as reflected in contextual value added measures.

• Good (2) - Learners meet challenging targets and, in relation to their capability and starting points, they achieve high standards. Most groups of learners, including those with learning difficulties and disabilities, make at least good progress and some may make very good progress, as reflected in contextual value added measures. Learners are gaining knowledge, skills and understanding at a good rate across all key stages. Most subjects and courses perform well, and some better than this, with nothing that is unsatisfactory.

• Satisfactory (3) - Progress is inadequate in no major respect, and may be good in some respects, as reflected in contextual value added measures.

• Inadequate (4) - A significant number of learners do not meet targets that are adequately challenging.

Inspectors must evaluate:

– whether learners achieve their targets and whether the targets are adequately challenging

– how well learners progress relative to their starting points and capabilities, with any significant variations between groups of learners (making clear whether there is any underachievement generally or among particular groups who could be doing better).’

The PandA: CVA and relative attainment

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Schools in this quadrant are performing below the national average in attainment and above in contextual value added

Schools in this quadrant are performing above the national average in attainment and in contextual value added

Schools in this quadrant are performing above the national average in attainment but below in contextual value added

Schools in this quadrant are performing below the national average in attainment and in contextual value added

KS2-4 overall CVACohort = 72, CVA score = 975

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What does this figure tell us?

That the CVA is inadequate as the plot is on the steeper part of the plotted line and couldn’t be considered satisfactory, as the confidence interval does not cross the median line

KS2-4 overall CVACohort = 87, CVA score = 1017

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What does this figure tell us?

That the CVA is good: its lower confidence interval is above the median line and so would not be satisfactory. It is not likely to be deemed outstanding, as the plot is not on the steeper part of the curve.

Value added measures KS2-3

What does this page specifically mean?

Achievement: KS2 to 3 CVA

The CVA shows English value added to be significantly lower than average achievement, ie CVA in English at KS3 is inadequate in 2004The contextual value added indicator shows value added to be broadly average, though close to good: ie satisfactory CVA in maths to KS3The contextual value added indicator shows value added to be significantly higher than average achievement, ie in 2004 the CVA for science is goodThis page further confirms what figure 36 told us, ie that the School CVA in 2004 is satisfactory, at the 46th percentile of all schoolsIn 2004: (considering KS2 to KS3 CVA)English: Significantly lower than average achievement, at the 73rd percentile of all schools nationally, ie in 2004 the CVA for English is inadequateMaths: Average achievement, at the 41st percentile of all schools nationally, ie in 2004 the CVA for maths is satisfactoryScience: Significantly higher than average achievement, improved to be in the top 18% of all schools nationally, ie in 2004 the CVA for science is goodAll pupils, based only on prior attainment are broadly average, placing the school at the 38th percentile of schools nationally. ie satisfactory CVASchool CVA: Satisfactory, at the 46th percentile of all schools

KS2-3 conversionsNote also the tables of conversion rates in English, mathematics and science from Key Stages 2 to 3 and from Key Stages 3 to 4.

What does Fig 38 specifically tell you?

Conversion to Levels 5+/6+

Maths converts the most of the lower ability students to L5+, whereas science converts the least.Science also has the weakest conversion of middle ability students to a Level 5+. However, English and maths have the better conversion rate for middle ability students, with maths being best.Of the three core subjects, 26% of the students who entered English at the beginning of KS3 at Level 5+ remained at or fell below that level, compared to 0% in maths and 11% in science. In maths 100% of the higher ability students reached Level 6+ compared to 80% in science, ie maths was better at converting higher ability students to Level 6+, with English converting the least.

KS2 to 4 CVA

What does this page tell you?

Progress from KS2-KS4 In 2003 (considering KS2 to KS4 CVA):English: Significantly lower than the national average, being in the bottom 23% of all schools nationallyMaths: In line with the national average, at the 45th percentile of all schools nationallyWhole school: Significantly lower than the national average, in the bottom 17% of all schools nationally

KS2 to 4 CVA – whole schoolKS4 subjects based on contextual value added, KS3 to KS4 in 2004:English: broadly average, ie in 2004 the CVA for English is satisfactoryMaths: significantly above average, with a sig+ indicator, ie good CVA close to outstanding

A rough guide for identifying progress from Key Stage 2-4 that is exceptional in educational terms is:

progress of one grade above or below the national expected progress by at least one half of pupilsThis is when at least one half of pupils make one grade of progress more than expected or less than expected. The expected progress for each pupil is calculated using national averages based on contextual value added data. For an individual subject this is one grade above or below the national expected progress; for average capped total points score it is an average of one grade in each of the eight subjects above or below the national expected progress.

Inclusion issues

• This section focuses on the progress of groups and individuals. When judging progress and achievement in a school, the data for both the whole school and groups must be taken into account.

Contextual Value Added performance groups within school

The CVA groups can be seen graphically. Those plots below the line are of concern, especially where the confidence interval is below the line. Those above the line are doing well. Consequently, those groups causing concern can be identified.

KS2 to 4 CVA group analysis

Groups of pupils in 2004: KS2 to 3 CVA group analysis

The PandA report contains a graph of the CVA score for each of 19 ethnic groups. The small size of these groups in many schools means that there are few instances of statistically significant CVA scores. For White British pupils,

the proportion of significant CVA scores is close to the overall national percentages. Other groups rarely, if ever, have significant CVA scores.

Even though few groups will have statistically significant scores, you should look at the graph for indications of trend, such as a few negative CVA scores.

You should check the table beneath the graph in the PandA report for the number of pupils in each ethnic group, then check the CVA score for each of the relatively large groups in the school. You should follow up any very low

CVA scores for any group of one or two pupils, but these alone would not be sufficient cause for judging progress to be inadequate. However, if a

substantial group, or a significant number of individuals, has an exceptionally below average CVA score, progress should be judged inadequate.

KS4 Contextual Value Added Pupil Characteristics

Inspectors must

• In judging the overall effectiveness of the school:– ‘Inspectors should evaluate:– the effectiveness of any steps taken to promote

improvement since the last inspection.’In judging the leadership and management of the

school:– ‘Inspectors should evaluate:– how effectively leaders and managers at all levels

clearly direct improvement and …– how effectively performance is monitored and

improved through quality assurance and self-assessment.’

WRITING A

SEFStandards and Achievement Section

The role of the Self Evaluation Form in shaping the inspection

Inspection

Requires openness, honesty, ability to question existing practice and self-confidence; Is based on evidence; Leads to strategies to manage change – with the necessary support for implementation; Is embedded in school development planning; Has a positive impact on pupils’ learning.

Successful school self-evaluation:

The SEF is not self evaluation it merely records the outcomes of self evaluation

Using the self-evaluation form for inspection

The SEF is at the heart of the inspection: It informs the pre-inspection briefing of inspectors and initial meetings with school;

It is used throughout during discussions and team meetings;

School leaders are asked to point to practice and evidence that substantiates the views expressed in the school self-evaluation form.

Using the self-evaluation form for inspection

The SEF:

Helps the Inspectors to evaluate how well the school knows :

Its strengths;

Areas for development and, what it needs to do to improve;

Provides evidence about the quality of leadership and management and theschool’s capacity to improve.

Criteria for SE effectiveness

A good range of key evidence

Identify the crucial questions about how well the school serves its learners

Compare with comparable schools

Does SE and planning involve key players and key groups, parents learners etc?

Fully integrated into planning system?

Leads to action and improvement?

Two key questions

How well are we doing?

How can we do better?

Schools must analyse evidence to diagnose precisely where strengths and weaknesses lie ….

And the implications for change

Identify the key priorities

Plan the action needed to bring about improvement

The self-evaluation form SEF

Completing the SEF is not, in itself, self-evaluation:

The SEF is a place to summarise the findings of the outcomes of a thorough self-evaluation

The SEF provides schools leaders with an excellent basis for school improvement if it is a fair reflection of the school

The self-evaluation form SEF

In a nutshell the SEF:

Builds on current form S4

Reflects the overall evaluation schedule

Records school’s self-evaluation but does not describe the process

The self-evaluation form SEF

It prompts schools to:

Analyse evidence rigorously; Demonstrate clear judgements; Identify what matters most.

convey a clear picture of how well the school is doing; provide proof of how you know what you know;

show what you are doing to build on successes and remedy weaknesses.

A SEF should:

A SEF should NOT:

Be longwinded.

Be overly descriptive;

Contradict itself;

Lack judgements;

“if I had more time I would have written less”

Voltaire

BEFORE YOU WRITE ANYTHING –THINK:

What are the key messages you want to convey?

How you would summarise the findings for a new governor or interested parent?

If you are clear about the progress (achievement) pupils make in their learning and personal development you’ll find it easy to make links with

the other sections. For example, inspectors will expect to see a link

between the progress pupils make, the quality of teaching and the

effectiveness of leadership and management. Leave the overall

effectiveness section until the end.

Inspectors will analyse and draw hypotheses from data before the inspection. They will expect you to have used the data well. There is no need to repeat it, but you should show what you make of it and what action you have taken as a result of your

analysis. You will have data that is not in the public domain; there is no need to repeat the data, but explain what it tells you and what

use you make of it.

Tests for self-evaluation

How good is our evidence?

How well do we serve our learners?

How do we compare with others?

Have we listened to everybody in the school including parents and pupils?

Have we integrated self-evaluation into management processes?

Is it a spur to action?

Collecting evidence Good schools have simple processes to enable leaders to measure progress through day-to-day routinesSIPs challenge the process and outcomes through the single conversation. They:Pose questions Suggest sources of evidence Challenge interpretations of the school’s evidence Discuss the accuracy of the leaders’ improvements priorities

Are critical readers of the SEF without writing it

A good range of key evidence

Monitoring and INTERPRETING academic achievement

Tracking individual learners sampling their work

Evaluation of teacher’s planning

A good range of key evidence

Stakeholders’ views, parents, learners, othersLearners’ attitudes, behaviour attendance response to pastoral supportUse of financial resourcesMonitoring undertaken by governorsPerformance management informationOther agencies involved in work of school

Identify the crucial questions about how well the school serves its learners

Policies in place

Do they work?

Why they work or do not

Lead to plans for action to develop and improve

How well do pupils achieve?How do you know? What are you doing to improve?How well are pupils’ personal qualities developed?How do you know? What are you doing to improve?What is the quality of provision?How do you know? What are you doing to improve?How good are leadership and management?How do you know? What are you doing to improve?How effective is the school overall?How do you know? What are you doing to improve?

SEFS the experience so far

HMI analysis :SEFs provide a sharp focus for the inspection;

Shorter SEFs are generally the most evaluative;

Weaker SEFs are descriptive, lack of clear judgements, and do not show the impact of the school’s action.

Analysing a SEF

Practical activity

SEFs: Show me more, show me different,

show me better

Practical activity sourcing the evidence

The judgement on overall effectiveness should be the last one that is made, since it takes account of all other evaluations about the school’s performance.Inspectors should not arrive at their judgement by an arithmetical calculation of the grades awarded for aspects of performance, but by weighing those judgements and assessing the balance of significance between them.

The Overall Effectiveness of a School

Evaluating overall effectivenessOutstanding (1) Exceptional:• all or almost all elements of the school’s work are at least good, andsignificant elements are exemplary.Good (2) Inspectors should consider the judgement good when:• there is a generally strong performance across all aspects of a school’swork• the capacity to improve is strong, as shown by its recentimprovement. A school may be good in a variety of ways, and may have pockets of excellence, but no school should be judged good if its performance is merely ordinary.No school can be judged to be good unless learners are judged to makegood progress.Satisfactory (3) The school’s work is inadequate in no major area, and may be good in some respects.Inadequate (4) A school is likely to be inadequate if one or more of the following are judged to be inadequate: the standards achieved; learners’ personal development and well-being; the overall quality ofprovision; and leadership and management. The sixth form orFoundation Stage might also be inadequate but, where the numbers aresmall, this does not necessarily lead to the judgement that the school as awhole is inadequate. At its worst, the school provides an unacceptablestandard of education and it lacks the capacity to turn things round.

The leadership of the school is successfully focused on raising standards and promoting the personal development and well-being of learners. It has created a common sense of purpose among staff. Through its effective self-evaluation, which takes into account the views of all major stakeholders, managers have a good understanding of the school’s strengths and weaknesses and have a good track record of making improvements, including dealing with any issues from the last inspection. The inclusion of all learners is central to its vision and it is effective in pursuing this and dismantling barriers to engagement. The school runs smoothly on a day-to-day basis. Resources are well used, including any extended services, to improve learners’ outcomes and to secure good value for money. Vetting procedures for all adults who work with learners are robust. Good links exist with parents and outside agencies to support its work. The impact is seen in the good progress made by most learners on most fronts, in their sense of security and well-being, and in its deservedly good reputation locally. The leadership and management provide the school with a good capacity to improve.

Leadership and Management must be judged by impact not by intention

10 Practical Tips

Come to a judgement on progress as soon as possible – use the nowhere to hide graphs

Use the progress judgement as a basis for all others

Remember that all the key judgements you make must be judged by their impact on pupil progress – especially L+M

Drill down to find the issues that will really make a difference

Look very carefully at different learners in different subjects and at different Key Stages – be specific don’t talk in terms of average judgements

When observing teaching focus on the impact that teaching has on learning not the teaching itself

When writing the SEF remember the Voltaire quote and:

be evaluative not descriptive

Make sure judgements are supported by evidence – in particular the most recent CVA indicators

be consistent and be honest

Make sure that your school improvement priorities flow from the Self Evaluation