training module on vulnerability assessment (ii)
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability concepts
VA on rice in Bali
Exercise
Today’s story
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VULNERABILITY CONCEPTS
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Climate related disasters
Disaster = Exposure
≠ Vulnerability
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Exposure
Impact
Sensitivity
Adaptative Capacity
Vulnerability to climate change
Outcome Vulnerability Contextual Vulnerability
hazard
Identify issues, context, purpose, system
Vulnerability Concepts 2
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Exposure
Impact
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability to climate change
hazard
Vulnerability Concept
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Vulnerability Assessment
Maps
- -
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
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VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
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Max Temp. Min Temp.
~2℃Climate change in Bali
(SRES A2 2046-65)
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e.g. “Develop drought early warning system” in National
Action Plan 2007
e.g. “impact study of climate change to the agriculture” in ICCSR 2009 & National Action Plan 2007
Climate Change impacts in Indonesia:Based in 10 policy reports incl. RPJMN, ICCSR, NARASI
Adaptation measures: 1. Agriculture = 232. Water = 203. Coastal zone = 15 4. Forestry = 125. Health = 11
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Climate Change Strategies ProjectSub-pro: Vulnerability assessment
KLH, 2010. Indonesia 2nd National Communication (UNFCCC).
22% of rice production in Bali/East Java
Short wet season
Important & vulnerable?
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VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION
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Historical rice production in Bali
Year
Paddy Harvested area (ha)
Production rate (quintal/ha) Production (ton)
2000 155,049 53.33 826,8382001 147,942 53.35 789,2322002 148,025 54.70 809,6882003 145,294 54.60 793,2602004 142,663 55.00 788,3612005 141,577 55.00 785,4812006 150,557 56.00 840,8912007 145,030 58.00 839,7752008 143,999 58.37 840,465
7%Not sure
Paddy area X productivity = ?
8%
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Soil-climate suitability for paddy
Soil-climate Suitability by 20% in 20 years
= productivity?
Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
20 %
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“we never fail rice for 20 years”
“Not enough water, only 1 harvesting”
“20% became housing”
“always have enough
water”
“not enough water , so need
to rotate rice and crop ”
Conclusion: Rice production decline?
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SENSITIVITY
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Green is paddy
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Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009
Suitability/Rain (Exposure⇧)
If there is Paddy
Production loss( Vulnerability⇧)
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ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
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Agricultural training = 4kg
cooperative = 5kg
2 cycle paddy production = 9kg
Average low productive
farmer = 35kg
Agricultural training = 4kg
With Infari 13 seed = 6kg
Average low productive
farmer = 35kg
Totally ~ 53 kg/acre Totally ~ 45 kg/acre
Different production levels with different factors
12%
19%
15%
27%
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2 cycle0.27
Lowland0.26
Organic&Inorga
nic0.26
Infari 130.19
In-organic
0.17
Cooperative0.15
Training0.12
Owner0.09
Potential weighting factors for adaptive capacity
Stronger
tons/ha In-&organic = 4.45Inorganic = 2.51(Increasing 77.3%)
In-&organic = 5.28Inorganic = 3.52(increasing 50%)
enhanced by 21% and 24%
Resource IPB BPTP/South Sulawesi Nanjing Agricultural UniYear 2008-2009 2004 1987-2005Place Bogor Buru Island (Maluku) Tai Lake Region, China
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VULNERABILITY MAPS
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Exposure
Vulnerability decrease as northern/eastern part get drier
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Sensitivity
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AC in livelihood zones
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Adaptive Capacity
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Vulnerability in
20 years
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VULNERABILITY MATRIX
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1. Select units affected2. Select disasters3. Rank them 4. Choose 3 units
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Scaling the impact on exposure units3 = significant impact on the exposure unit2 = medium impact on the exposure unit1 = low impact on the exposure unit0 = no impact on the exposure unit
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Exposure unit
ecosystem
activities
livelihood
Ecosystem service
Soil water balance
Water supply
Grazing and fodder
Livelihood
Smallholder farmers
Emerging farmers
Market traders
Terminologies
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Farming land
Fishery
Water
Drought
Heavy rain
Floods
Potential disasters
Exposure units1. Ecosystem
services2. Livelihood
activates3. Livelihood
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Thank you very much!Dr. Takeshi Takama
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Risky without proper variety selection.
Risky without proper timing.
Abnormal climate (El Nino)
Delayed wet-season
Drier dry-season
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NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
1 month delay in wet season decrease by: 6.5% for West/Central Java &11% for East Java and Bali.
11%In Bali
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NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
20% drop in rainfall in April-June reduces planting area for East Java and Bali by only 2%.
2%In Bali
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Delayed wet-season
Drier dry-season
Temporal sensitivity
Less
More
Need to focus
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two.cycle lowland infari only.in-organic
coopera-tive
agritrain owner
Most pro-duc-tive
0.7142857142857
14
1 0.2285714285714
29
0.1142857142857
14
0.5142857142857
14
0.9142857142857
14
0.6285714285714
29
Least pro-duc-tive
0.0689655172413
793
0.2413793103448
28
0 0 0 0.4827586206896
55
0.3448275862068
97
5.00%15.00%25.00%35.00%45.00%55.00%65.00%75.00%85.00%95.00%
5 most and 5 least productive villages
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Rice production in IndonesiaDec - Mar
May - JulySep - Nov
WetDry
Production x 2 in 30 years
Slow down in production
Population 300M in 2045
Food security
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5K Kms & 18K islands
230M people
Agro, Touris
m, Fissile
Fast grow
Indonesia
Diverse, varia-
ble
Big emerg-
ing
Climate relate
Vulne-rable?