transboundary air pollution – science and policy...
TRANSCRIPT
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Transboundary Air Pollution – Science and Policy Interactions in
Europe over 50 years
Peringe Grennfelt
Symposium - Acid Rain 50 years
Stockholm 6-7 November 2017
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Initial remarks In my 18 minutes I will concentrate my presentation to a few occasions when science and policy have interfered.
Thanks to all who gave the opportunity to be part of this journey. In addition to Svante Odén I want to mention – Cyrill Brosset, who introduced me to the area in 1968 and 1969 – Hans Hultberg who I met the first week in November 1969 and with
whom I have collaborated since then
– This is my history of the 50 years of acid rain
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Science Policy
The first alarm, Odén 1967 Sweden’s case
study UN Conference 1972 OECD projekt: “Acid rain
a transboundary problem”
CLRTAP Convention
First S Protocol 1985
Second Sulphur Protocol 1994
Gothenburg Protocol 1999
EU CAFE Proposal
Critical loads and levels
Soil acidification verified
Multipollutant integrated assessment model
Dynamic modelling Recovery
Dis
cove
ry
Con
sens
us
Inno
vativ
e st
rate
gies
Li
nkag
es w
ith
emer
ging
issu
es NEC Directive
Gothenburg Prot. revison
Climate, human health,intercontinental transport, nitrogen
NOx Protocol 1988
Start ICPs.
Start of EMEP
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
Europe
Catchment recovery experiments (Gårdsjön)
EU directive
OECD Report
Late 80’s, and 90’s Critical loads Cost-effective strategies Second sulphur protocol Gothenburg Protocol
Early 80’s Forest damages First sulphur protocol ICP programmes on effects
1970’s Lake acidification Transboundary transport EMEP and CLRTAP
After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport
SNSF project 72-80
CLRTAP Assessment Report
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The early questions from policy
What caused the extinction of fish?
– SNSF and other research efforts showed the causual linking
– Al killed the fish rather than low pH – important to show that acid deposition caused the release of inorganic Al
How important is the transboundary transport for the acid deposition?
Key publications Muniz and Leivestad Hultberg and Stensson Rosseland
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1970s The transboundary problem
Cyrill Brosset made early observations on long-range transport in 1965 and set up a first network in 1966
A European project under OECD was set up in 1972 to examine the transboundary nature of sulphur emissions
The outcome: “Sulphur compounds do travel long distances n the atmosphere and has shown that the air quality in any European country is measurably affected by emissions from other European countries” (1977)
Starting point for EMEP (1977)
Lesson learned: Involving countries through monitoring, research and emission inventories
Some key persons In the setup of the OECD project Brynulf Ottar Anton Eliassen Arne Semb Lennart Granat Alec Estlander Cyrill Brosset Göran Persson
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The birth of a treaty – during the cold war
Very few contacts between East and West
Within the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe environment was mentioned as a topic.
Soviet Union proposed cooperation on air pollution
West was very sceptic. Thought it was just propaganda
The Norwegian minister of environment at that time Gro Harlem Brundtland facilitated the contacts
The Convention included already from the beginning bodies for policy and science
Key persons Gro Harlem Bruntland and Valentin Sokolovski
Executive Body
Working Group on Effects (1981)
EMEP (1977)
Artic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
Georgia
Norway
Belarus
Czech Rep. Ukraine
Denmark
Moldova
Germany
Yugoslavia
Austria
Bulgaria
Liechtenstein
Turkey
Italy
Monaco
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
F.Y.R.ofMacedonia
Luxembourg
Albania
France
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Spain
Croatia
Portugal
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Romania
Russian Federation
Iceland
Kara SeaBarents Sea
North Sea
Atlantic Ocean
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea Caspian Sea
Aral Sea
Canada
of America
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
AzerbaijanArmenia
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
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Science Policy
The first alarm, Odén 1967 Sweden’s case
study UN Conference 1972 OECD projekt: “Acid rain
a transboundary problem”
CLRTAP Convention
First S Protocol 1985
Second Sulphur Protocol 1994
Gothenburg Protocol 1999
EU CAFE Proposal
Critical loads and levels
Soil acidification verified
Multipollutant integrated assessment model
Dynamic modelling Recovery
Dis
cove
ry
Con
sens
us
Inno
vativ
e st
rate
gies
Li
nkag
es w
ith
emer
ging
issu
es NEC Directive
Gothenburg Prot. revison
Climate, human health,intercontinental transport, nitrogen
NOx Protocol 1988
Start ICPs.
Start of EMEP
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
Europe
Catchment recovery experiments (Gårdsjön)
EU directive
OECD Report
Late 80’s, and 90’s Critical loads Cost-effective strategies Second sulphur protocol Gothenburg Protocol
Early 80’s Forest damages First sulphur protocol ICP programmes on effects
1970’s Lake acidification Transboundary transport EMEP and CLRTAP
After 2000 EU enters the scene Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport
SNSF project 72-80
CLRTAP Assessment Report
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Monitoring key issue for getting countries on board
Source-receptor matrixes for sulphur – who to blame
Expanding the monitoring network and standardising monitoring methods (CCC)
Financing EMEP: Protocol 1984
Establishment of the ICP programmes: Waters (Norway), Forests (Germany) Integrated Monitoring (Finland and Sweden) Materials (Sweden), and Vegetation (UK)
Expansion of monitoring programmes (nitrogen oxides, ammonia, ozone)
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Forest dieback changed the scene
Forest damages in Germany
The serious situation in the Black Triangle
The 30% club and negotiations of the first sulphur protocol
The UK debate
Key persons Bernhard Ulrich Tomas Paces Bedrich Moldan
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Integrated ecosystems projects
The start: The SNSF Project
The Lake Gårdsjön Project
Solling
International research programs:
The SWAP Project
NITREX – gave a basic understanding on the dynamics of nitrogen in forested ecosystems
Key persons Lars Overrein Arne Tollan Bernhard Ulrich Hans Hultberg Folke Andersson Hans Martin Seip Rick Battarbee Dick Wrtight and others
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Science Policy
The first alarm, Odén 1967 Sweden’s case
study UN Conference 1972 OECD projekt: “Acid rain
a transboundary problem”
CLRTAP Convention
First S Protocol 1985
Second Sulphur Protocol 1994
Gothenburg Protocol 1999
EU CAFE Proposal
Critical loads and levels
Soil acidification verified
Multipollutant integrated assessment model
Dynamic modelling Recovery
Dis
cove
ry
Con
sens
us
Inno
vativ
e st
rate
gies
Li
nkag
es w
ith
emer
ging
issu
es NEC Directive
Gothenburg Prot. revison
Climate, human health,intercontinental transport, nitrogen
NOx Protocol 1988
Start ICPs.
Start of EMEP
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
Europe
Catchment recovery experiments (Gårdsjön)
EU directive
OECD Report
Late 80’s, and 90’s Critical loads Cost-effective strategies Second sulphur protocol Gothenburg Protocol
Early 80’s Forest damages First sulphur protocol ICP programmes on effects
1970’s Lake acidification Transboundary transport EMEP and CLRTAP
After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport
SNSF project 72-80
CLRTAP Assessment Report
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Critical loads and Integrated Assessment modelling
CL was first discussed in 1982 (Stockholm)
The large step was taken in 1988 through a Workshop in Skokloster, Sweden:
Acceptance by the Convention to use the concept
Establishment of the Coordinating Centre for Effects (NL)
Integrated Assessment Modelling models were developed
Consensus on the IIASA model in 1993
The basis for the 2nd Sulphur Protocol
Key persons Jan Nilsson Max Posch Jean-Paul Hettelingh Arne Henriksen Wim de Vries Harald Sverdrup
Key persons Leen Hordijk Rob Maas Markus Amann Anton Eliassen
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21-22 January 1992: Nordic workshop in Oslo organised by Harald Dovland
Key topics
The second sulphur protocol; how to use critical loasd in an optimised model approach that could be accepted and form a basis for negotiations? Introduction Anton Eliassen
How to continue with the next Nox protocol. Introduction Oystein Hov and Peringe Grennfelt
The possibility of using emissions trading for emission control optimisation. Introduction Finn Försund
Some important steps were taken for the coming protocols.
Financed to a large extent by Nordic Council of Ministers
Key persons Harald Dovland Lars Björkbom
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THE GAP
GAP CLOSURE
(Transekt över Europa)
Anton’s solution: Use intermediate goals in relation to CL (gap closure) 60% gap closure was then used
(Eliassen 1992)
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Second sulphur protocol (1994)
The idea was accepted in Geneva as a basis and the optimizing model RAINS developed by IIASA could be used.
The results was surprisingly good and was used as a basis for the negotiations – control measures were necessary in practically all countries
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The Gothenburg Protocol 1999
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Emission reductions under the Gothenburg protocol 1990-2010
SO2 NOx VOC NH3
EU - 75 - 50 - 56 - 15 Other countries - 49 - 31 - 28 - 20 Europe total -61 - 42 - 44 - 18
Signed and/or ratified by more than 30 parties. For sulphur the overall target was reached already in 2004, for remaining countries the emission limits were reached for amost all compounds by 2010.
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
EU
- 75
- 50
- 56
- 15
Other countries
- 49
- 31
- 28
- 20
Europe total
-61
- 42
- 44
- 18
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Science Policy
The first alarm, Odén 1967 Sweden’s case
study UN Conference 1972 OECD projekt: “Acid rain
a transboundary problem”
CLRTAP Convention
First S Protocol 1985
Second Sulphur Protocol 1994
Gothenburg Protocol 1999
EU CAFE Proposal
Critical loads and levels
Soil acidification verified
Multipollutant integrated assessment model
Dynamic modelling Recovery
Dis
cove
ry
Con
sens
us
Inno
vativ
e st
rate
gies
Li
nkag
es w
ith
emer
ging
issu
es NEC Directive
Gothenburg Prot. revison
Climate, human health,intercontinental transport, nitrogen
NOx Protocol 1988
Start ICPs.
Start of EMEP
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
Europe
Catchment recovery experiments (Gårdsjön)
EU directive
OECD Report
Late 80’s, and 90’s Critical loads Cost-effective strategies Second sulphur protocol Gothenburg Protocol
Early 80’s Forest damages First sulphur protocol ICP programmes on effects
1970’s Lake acidification Transboundary transport EMEP and CLRTAP
After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions -SLCP Hemispheric transport
SNSF project 72-80
CLRTAP Assessment Report
-
Recovery from acidification - dynamic modelling
Some roof projects in Europe; Risdalsheia and Gårdsjön
A separate group was set up under the Convention Joint expert group on dynamic modelling.
Key persons Dick Wright Jack Cosby Harald Sverdrup Filip Moldan
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Nitrogen – a key area for research and policy development
Several projects from 2005 and onwards
Key outcome European Nitrogen Assessment
Increased policy interest
Interest expanded towards N as a nutrition
www.nine-esf.org/ENA
ENA Authorship 200 experts, 21 countries & 89 organizations Scientifically independent process
Key persons Mark Sutton Jan Willem Erisman
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21
North America, Europe, South Asia and East Asia cover ca. 60-70 % of human-related emissions
Within one month the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere is mixed.
Ozone produced in Asia is transported to North America, from North America to Europe etc.
NA EU EA SA
A special case is methane which stays about 10 years in the atmosphere, and is both a greenhouse gas and an air pollutant.
Hemispheric transport HTAP
Key organisers Terry Keating André Zuber Frank Dentener
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Facilitators for science – policy interactions
Large scale experiments and research programs of significant policy impact
– SNSF 1972-80 – Lake Gårdsjön 1979- – SWAP 1983-88 – NITREX – Eurotrac 1986-2002 – ASTA 1998-2007 – NitroEurope 2006-2011 – ECLAIRE 2011-2015
Acid Rain Conferences
– 1975 Ohio – 1980 Sandefjord – 1985 Muskoka – 1990 Glasgow – 1995 Göteborg – 2000 Tsukuba – 2005 Prague – 2010 Beijing – 2015 Rochester
Key persons Lars Walloe Lars Overrein Arne Tollan Bernhard Ulrich Hans Hultberg Folke Andersson Rick Battarbee Dick Wright Mark Sutton David Fowler Henning Rodhe
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Nordic Council of Ministers An important but not well known actor
Nordic Collaboration through NORDFORSK (from 1969) and Nordic Council of Ministers since mid 70s Supported – the scientific basis for the OECD project 1970-77 – the development of the EMEP monitoring programme – the development of the Critical Loads Concept – the development of the concepts for the 2nd sulphur protocol and the
Gothenburg Protocol – The 2016 Assessment report – a large number of workshops and conferences including the Saltsjöbaden
workshops, including this symposium Initiated field experiment on nitrogen deposition (N saturation) Is still a facilitator for international science and policy work on air pollution The footprint of the projects has been much larger than the amount spent
Key persons Alec Estlander Eli Mari Åsen Lars Lindau
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Lessons learnt Windows of opportunity – 1970s – Forest dieback – Critical loads – Integrated Assessment Modelling
Science – policy interactions – Science part of the Convention – Common concepts; critical loads, blame matrices – Integrated Assessment Modelling formed links
Bottom-up science – International collaboration – Distributed responsibilities
Field experiments that gave visibility
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Lessons learnt cont.
Public opinion and NGOs played an important role
More difficult in the future despite still strong driving forces
Health effects main driver - acidification and eutrophication benefit
Climate policies will help reducing emissions – still difficult to develop combined policies
Abatement costs have so far been low in comparison to costs for effects to health and ecosystems
Key person Christer Ågren
https://www.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://www.aui.ma/personal/%7E011Z348106/logored2.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.aui.ma/personal/%7E011Z348106/&docid=2VLioU8Zj9b6PM&tbnid=7nMNwXCJXI3OtM:&vet=1&w=241&h=242&bih=731&biw=1536&ved=0ahUKEwj7_dSilajXAhVLSZoKHUfZCOkQMwh8KEwwTA&iact=c&ictx=1
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Thank you
Transboundary Air Pollution – Science and Policy Interactions in Europe over 50 yearsInitial remarks Slide Number 3The early questions from policy1970s �The transboundary problemThe birth of a treaty – during the cold war�Slide Number 7Monitoring key issue for getting countries on boardForest dieback changed the scene�Integrated ecosystems projects Slide Number 11Critical loads and Integrated Assessment modelling21-22 January 1992: Nordic workshop in Oslo organised by Harald Dovland Slide Number 14Second sulphur protocol (1994)The Gothenburg Protocol 1999 Emission reductions under the Gothenburg protocol 1990-2010Slide Number 18Recovery from acidification -�dynamic modelling Nitrogen – a key area for research and policy development Slide Number 21Facilitators for science – policy interactionsNordic Council of Ministers �An important but not well known actorLessons learnt Lessons learnt cont. Slide Number 26