transformation in transportation: self-driving technology ... · 04-05-2018 · •...
TRANSCRIPT
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Transformation in Transportation:
Self-Driving Technology, Mobility
Services, and Millennials
Scott Le Vine
Twitter: @scottericlevine
May 4th, 2018
American Planning Association; Long Island Chapter
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Some major trends impacting mobility
• Technology (Connectivity, Self-driving,
Electrification, etc.)
• Economics
• Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
• Policy / Funding priorities
• Demographics: Aging, Millennials (Post-
Millennials!), etc.
• Spatial (Real estate markets)
• E-Commerce
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Some major trends impacting mobility
• Technology (Connectivity, Self-Driving,
Electrification, etc.)
• Economics
• Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
• Policy / Funding priorities
• Demographics: Aging, Millennials, (Post-
Millennials!), etc.
• Spatial (Real estate markets)
• E-Commerce
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Today’s focus
• On each of these three topics (Self-Driving,
Mobility Services, Demographics):
• Set the scene: High-level overview
• Disentangle what we know from what we think
• Highlight prospects for the near/mid-term
• Implications for Planning actions
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Self-Driving
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Building blocks of Automation
• Autonomous
• Driverless
• Self-Driving
• Automated
• Sensing (the external
environment)
• Processing (data streams)
• Decision-making
• Actuation
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‘Levels’ of Automation
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Connectivity (V2X)
• Connectivity ≠ Automation
• Connected vehicles (CV) are in communication
with each other, with infrastructure, perhaps
pedestrians, etc.
• 360-deg ‘awareness’; ‘see around corners’,
‘beyond line of sight’
• BSM = Basic Safety Message (using DSRC)
• Subject of Federal action in 2016; quiet since
• Cars ‘shouting’ at one another 10x/second, with
status information (not intent; no negotiation)
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Current happenings
• PANYNJ will *very* soon formally solicit input regarding Self-
driving transit at the Lincoln Tunnel’s Express Bus Lane (XBL)
• Manhattan pilot project announced by GM has yet to
materialize; extended hiatus due to NYC/NYS politics
• Death of pedestrian by Self-Driving Uber (3/18/18) has further
muddied waters on testing. Uber settled quickly w/family; thus
no precedent in terms of acceptable degree of safety will
emerge from a litigated case
• Chandler, AZ last month introduced first-in-nation proposal to
flex municipal parking requirements, in exchange for
passenger ‘loading zones’ for ridesharing (Self-driving or not)
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Self-Driving and the Mobility Ecosystem
• Greater ‘per-lane’ capacity: Probably, but how
much is an open question
• Journey time more productive/leisurely: Probably
• Taxi drivers redundant: Maybe; Google thinks so
• Interstate truck drivers redundant: Quite possibly
• Greater sprawl: Quite possible (but maybe not)
• Bottom line: State-of-knowledge consists of
“What if…” scenarios rather than “I can
demonstrate that this will happen” arguments
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Relax/Work like it’s a Plane or High Speed Rail?
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What does the public expect?
Sivak/Schoettle, UMTRI
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/108384/103024.pdf
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The public’s priority: _________(n=370)
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Pick any two…
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1. Road network as open system
2. “Defensive Driving” as rule
3. Greatest reduction in congestion
1+2: If you like your road network, you can keep it
1+3: We’d be designing-in chain-reaction
collisions (how many?), with no one ‘at fault’
2+3: Perhaps would require lining curbs of major
arterials with cyclone fencing, to keep pedestrians
at bay?
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Judge Learned Hand
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Google: Maybe we’ll record your driving style,
and then mimic it…
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…and thereby shift liability back to you…maybe
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Ford: AV/Drone in tandem
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Impacts on parking: Parking spaces in existing
lots may increase ~50%
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Others’ perspectives
• Bryant Walker Smith (Univ. of South Carolina
Law School): When an AV driving developer
shares its safety philosophy with the public
through data and analysis, automated driving will
be truly imminent.
• Steve Shladover (UC Berkeley):
The auto industry and the press have oversold
the automated car. Simple road encounters pose
huge challenges for computers, and robotic
chauffeurs remain decades away.
• Sarah Hunter (Google ‘X’):
Cold, dry text of regulation will be outdated by the
time it’s published
• Anthony Foxx (Obama’s Fed Transp. Sec):
If we can reduce fatalities by 80%, that justifies
adoption20
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Snippets from Chandler, AZ’s zoning change
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Implications for Planning
• Many of the ‘big’ decisions will be made outside of the direct
purview of the Planning profession: Advances in the
fundamental technologies, Legislative action, Fed regulatory
agencies, Accretion of case law through litigation; Public
opinion, Consumer preferences, etc.
• Tremendous need for data, research, advocacy (don’t forget
peds/cyclists/mobility-challenged, etc.) – areas in Planners’
wheelhouse
• Unclear what advantages accrue to ‘first-mover’ communities.
AZ, e.g., was able to convince Uber to road-test in AZ, but not
to relocate its HQ from Silicon Valley.
• Recurring challenge to manage interface between
public/private sectors (different requirements, incentives,
“clock-speeds”, etc.)
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23
Mobility as a Service
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startwork
move in with partner
scrapcar 2
retirement
actual household car access
optimum/desired household car access
life course
ho
use
ho
ld c
ar a
cces
s access ‘deficit’
access ‘surplus’
0
1
2
pass test
movehouse
acquirecar 2
Clark, Lyons & ChatterjeeUnderstanding the Dynamics of Car Ownership, presented at UTSG conference.
Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Sometimes in
life you need 0.625 of a car
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Mobility as a Service
• Mobility “by the drink”
• Wide variety of business
models, rapidly evolving, rapid
churn
• Carmakers increasingly
experimenting with MaaS
investments – but profits are few
and far between as yet
• Typical customer uses MaaS
infrequently: ‘gap-filler’ (not
workhorse) form of
transportation
• NYC’s CitiBike: ~50K trips/day
• Uber: ~300K trips/day
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Carsharing market trends (North America)
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User profile: What we might expect of Early
Adopters
• Young adults
• Mid-to-upper income
• Highly educated
• Urban residence
• Small HH sizes
• Frequently (not always) skew
male
• Tech-savvy (many MaaS’s
assume smartphone access)
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Mobility services and the long arm of the law
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Some issues for Planners
• Equity of access (you need 5 stars...)
• Terms and conditions of operator/municipality contracts (Sole-
source, etc.)
• Relationship with existing taxi/car services
• Broader issue of planning for the ‘Gig’ economy (flexible work)
• Privileged access to right-of-way? (esp. curb space)
• Chicken and egg issue of data needs and permissions
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The “Uber in London” saga
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Keep an eye on e-bikes/scooters
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BOOK by Cadillac: yours for $1800/mo.
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Demographics
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Demographics and Mobility
• Across developed countries,
growth in driving in 21st C. has
been sluggish-to-negative
• A range of theories have been
put forward, many which
focus on diverging travel
patterns of ‘Millennials’ versus
previous generations
• Have we reached ‘Peak Car’?
(If so, what do we do?)
• Have we fallen out of love
with the automobile? (How
would we know?)
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Chris McCahill, SSTI
Annual vehicle-miles travelled (trillions)
For 20 years, USDOT’s forecasts of growing VMT have
consistently proven to be optimistic (same in UK)
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Long-term declines have occurred mainly
among young men
Tobias Kuhnimhof: “Are young men responsible for Peak Car?”
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…very different story for Seniors, in US and
elsewhere
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Who are the Millennials anyway?
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Shrinking gender gap for young adults
(young men becoming more like young women)
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Extended Adolescence
• Sometimes expressed in terms of ‘postponing’ standard life-
course milestones:
1. Leave parental home
2. Completion of education
3. Financial independence
4. Marriage
5. Child-rearing
• These are long-term social shifts, in many cases intensified
by Global Financial Crisis
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Extended Adolescence: Social trends
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Extended Adolescence: Finances
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Extended Adolescence: Living Arrangements
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• Noreen McDonald (UNC): “The decrease in driving has not
been accompanied by an increase in other modes of travel
or a decline in average trip length, meaning that younger
Americans are increasingly going fewer places…The
future trajectory of the travel of Millennials is highly
uncertain”
• Nick Klein (Cornell) / Mike Smart (Rutgers): “Millennials'
levels of car ownership are surprisingly high given their
economic situations…We caution planners to temper their
enthusiasm about “peak car,” as this may largely be a
manifestation of economic factors that could reverse in
coming years”
• Me: Agree; it’s not all good news, and it’s too soon to tell…
So what does it all mean for the future?
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• These lines of research rely heavily on analysis of HH travel
survey data – without data we’re all just guessing
• The “data pool” has challenges, however
• We need to update survey methods to track access to and usage
of emerging tech (Self-driving; MaaS)
• We do HH Travel Surveys sporadically (2001; 2009; 2016 at
Nat’l. level). We thus can’t disentangle long-term shifts from
effects of 2008 recession.
• Many peer countries survey continuously. The UK does this for
less than $5M/year – seems like a small investment we should
consider, given the vast sums we spend on transportation
infrastructure.
• On another note, MaaS operators need to become more
comfortable sharing data with the public sector
A plea for better data
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• Social/economic factors account for some of the decline in
driving, but not all. Is there an ‘X’ factor?
Have we fallen out of love with the car?
• A team of my students
compiled pop-music lyrics
from 1956-2015,
identified references to
cars/driving, and found…
• In the 1990s-2000s,
when driving per person
was declining…pop
music was making a
rapidly growing number
of references to cars!