transmission cost reduction · cost savings for a far offshore round-3 project. relative to round-2...
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Transmission Cost Reduction
Sean Kelly April 2015
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Chaired by Benj Sykes & Matthew Hancock
Members are all offshore developers (13),
supply chain (8), public sector (7)
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Sources: For FID in 2014 and earlier – data from ORE Catapult cost reduction monitoring report; LCoE values are averages for projects with FIDs approximately in the date ranges
shown. For 2016 LCoE is calculated from published CfD strike prices for NNG and EA-1 (first 15 years) and 2017 forward price (10 years), 9% discount rate.
Out-turn
Out-turn
Expected
From bid prices Target
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Offshore
Transmission
Capex £/kW
Year in
Service Source: OFTO transfer value as published by Ofgem. Overall transmission costs closely track this
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Size of each picture indicates relative cost
(average over all projects for which an
OFTO transfer value has been calculated)
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9 Onshore sub 1km of Cable
Offshore sub
Capex £/MW
years
Note: some data points removed due to missing /
non-comparable data or to ensure anonymity
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10 Onshore sub
Offshore sub
?
1km of Cable
Capex £/MW
years
Note: some data points removed due to missing /
non-comparable data or to ensure anonymity
Slight rise, could
be statistical
fluke?
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11 Onshore sub
Offshore sub
?
?
1km of Cable
Capex £/MW
years
Note: some data points removed due to missing /
non-comparable data or to ensure anonymity
Slight rise, could
be statistical
fluke?
Slight fall, could
be statistical
fluke?
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12 Onshore sub
Offshore sub
?
?
1km of Cable
Capex £/MW
years
Note: some data points removed due to missing /
non-comparable data or to ensure anonymity
Slight rise, could
be statistical
fluke?
Slight fall, could
be statistical
fluke?
Clear rise due to
need for 400kV
connection and
equipment for
“grid code
compliance”
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Offshore
Transmission
Capex £/kW
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Cost Reduction
Improve Implementation
(“Do it Better”)
Lower priority
Improve Design
(“Don’t do it at all”)
Fewer and larger
Offshore Substation Onshore substation Cables
Mount offshore
transformers on
turbines
Harmonic filters
SVCs (reactive power)
Lower priority
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Cable capex
per km
Cable capacity
Based on GB offshore wind projects to date, the cost of cable seems
independent of cable capacity…
Benchmarking study by Ofgem only identified cable length as a cost driver.
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If cost of cable was really independent of capacity it would imply huge
cost savings are possible by using larger cables.
200MW 200MW
400MW
= 2x200MW cables – same capacity as 1x400MW
But if cost is independent of rating it implies that
1x400MW option costs half as much as
2x200MW!
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Cable capex
per km
Cable capacity
Cable capacity is a cost driver if the change in capacity is large enough
This graph shows cable cost over a much wider range of capacities
Suggests that 1 double-size cable costs ~40% less than 2 smaller cables
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Largest wind farm
cable in Denmark
today is twice the
capacity of the largest
cable in Britain
Yes: Denmark (Energienet) is doing it already.
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…and Britain is catching up
All designed by either
DONG or Energinet
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Larger Conductors (physically bigger cables)
Higher Voltage (physically bigger cables)
Dynamic Ratings (more power through the same size of cable)
Largest Danish export
cable (400MW, 220kV,
270mm).
Relative to the GB’s
largest cable, this uses
all 3 techniques to
increase capacity
Largest in-service GB
export cable (circa
200MW, 150kV,
234mm diameter)
400MW cable
is physically
larger than
200MW cable
… but not that
much larger.
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Dynamic Ratings – operate cables beyond their normal (continuous) rating
Makes use of the fact that wind power is usually only at maximum output for
short periods
Cable
tem
pera
ture
Time (weeks)
90°C
(maximum
allowed)
Pow
er
Normal
(continuous)
rating of
cable
Cable doesn’t overheat
because power is reduced Cable would have overheated
if power hadn’t been reduced
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Temperature of a wind farm cable.
Power is greater than continuous rating on several occasions – but never
for long enough for the cable to overheat
And actual temperature lower than expected: even more capacity possible
1 week
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Pie indicates total
installed cost of
offshore substation
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Pie indicates total
installed cost of
offshore substation
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Pie indicates total
installed cost of
offshore substation
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1 Transformer.
2 220kV switchgear.
3 33kV switchgear,
protection, etc.
4 Standard wind
turbine (tower goes
through hole in deck
and attaches to
foundation).
5 Foundation
installed using wind
turbine installation
vessel.
6 Deck and all
equipment lifted
onto foundation by
wind turbine
installation vessel.
Then the turbine
itself is installed.
Source: Siemens
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Source: Siemens
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Onshore substation cost
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Onshore substation cost
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Cost savings for a far offshore Round-3 project.
Relative to Round-2 technology
Typical far-offshore project: 170km
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Cost savings for a far offshore Round-3 project.
Relative to Round-2 technology
Typical far-offshore project: 170km Note that these are
best-case values.
OWPB has set
lower targets since
not all cost
reduction
opportunities will
work on all projects
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For further information:
Sean Kelly +44 7767 298 983