transport – mitigation and adaptation tamás fleischer institute for world economics of the...
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TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Tamás FleischerInstitute for World Economics of the Hungarian
Academy of Scienceshttp://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/
Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event
Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008
Mitigation: decreasing the emissions (decreasing the driving forces of the climate change). It suppose known reasons, known relations, known target
Adaptation: posterior adaptation: reaction to changes already
happened
preventive adaptation: to improve capability of resistance / of survival of future changes
flexibility, buffers, reserves, redundancies, diversity,
Characteristics that are not „efficient” or „uniform” or „optimal” etc.
(„Post-modern” versus „modern” values)
Transport – mitigation and adaptation
Source: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC TAR Vol II. indirect source: Smit et al 1999.
Mitigation and adaptation as policy answers
Mitigation and adaptation
Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach
The myth of the negative feedback loop
Expectation: the more technology, the less emission / CC
Experience: the more technology – increasing emission
Behaves rather like a positive feedback loop
(transport) sector emissions
technology
Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach
„Fuel economy regulations have been effective in slowing the growth of GHG emissions, but so far growth of transport activity has overwhelmed their impact.” (AR4)
What happened?
Misleading message to the user: „technology can solve the problem, you don’t have to change anything”
Transport: target: to gain time => higher speed => no time gain, but bigger distance covered => (+higher emission)
The cumulated social result differs from the direct one
IPCC mitigation approach
The non-technical solutions
From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation”
(transport) sector emissions
regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.
IPCC mitigation approach
The non-technical solutions
From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)
(transport) sector emissions
regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.
(transport) sector
IPCC mitigation approach
The non-technical solutions
From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)
How to make the feedback even more back to policy level?
(transport) sector emissions
regulations, prices,emissions trade etc.
(transport) sector
IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2 Local, fragmented, regional world
Global, converged, connected world
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
Economic priority, efficiency, market based world, competition
Environment, equity, participative decisions, co-operation
Local, fragmented, regional world
Global, converged, connected world
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development
B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development
B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]
A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’no state intervention, global competition,capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world,technology development
B1 ‘global co-operation’social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]
A2 ‘regional market’protectionist, anti-globalsystem of efficient localmarkets, based on limited range TNCs rather than statesgood local connections
B2 ‘regional co-operation’intra-regional redistribution, equity and environment-friendly development directed by regional institutions, Harmony with SD principles: regional production, -trade, -employment; regional institutions and -governance.
2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups
2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups
B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport
2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A B
1
2
market co-operation
regional
global A1 ‘global market’sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups
B1 ‘global co-operation’top-down elaborated legal and institutional changes,support sustainable scenarios at national and international level, eliminate regional inequalities
A2 ‘regional market’B2 ‘regional co-operation’integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport
While technology is very important to promote mitigation, without a proper wider context it may lead to more emissions instead of less.
The adaptation scenario is not just necessary, but also represent a different and multidimensional approach of risk management
From the IPCC scenarios ‘B2’ and „B1” dispose of values fitting pro-sustainability, and can present a multi-dimensional world
B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world-wide union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed co-operation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of sustainability
B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world with strong internal connections within the single unites and secondary connections between those unites. This form of governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more moderated in globalisation
Transport – mitigation and adaptation
TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Tamás FleischerInstitute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Scienceshttp://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ [email protected]
Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event
Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008
THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !