transport policies and measures in eu to mitigate climate change
DESCRIPTION
Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate climate change. François MOISAN Director of Strategy and Research Scientific Director ADEME, France. Since 1990, unit consumption of each transport mode decreased but global CO 2 emissions from transport increased by 26%. ODEX Transport :. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate
climate changeFrançois MOISAN
Director of Strategy and Research
Scientific Director
ADEME, France
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
80
90
100
110
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bot
tom
-up
en
ergy
eff
icie
ncy
in
dex
Overall Cars Trucks Air transport
cars: specific consumption in litres/km trucks & light vehicles : unit
consumption per ton-km
air : unit consumption per passenger-kmrail ,water : unit consumption/pkm or tkm
motorcycles, buses: toe/vehicle
ODEX Transport :ODEX Transport :
Since 1990, unit consumption of each Since 1990, unit consumption of each transport mode decreased but global COtransport mode decreased but global CO22
emissions from transport increased by 26%emissions from transport increased by 26%
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
%
Spain Italy Nederlands Belgium UKSweden EU Finland Germany FrancePortugal Norway Denmark Austria Greece
EU 15
Since 1990, large discrepancies in energy efficiency progress of transport modes in
different Member States
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
• Energy demand for trucks will increase strongly (x 1.85 to 2 vs 1990) representing more than 40% of transport consumption in 2030
• Private cars consumption will remain important (about 40% of total consumption) but would decrease since 2010 in absolute value
• Aviation consumption will increase in relative and absolute terms 13 to 15 % of total transport demand in 2030 (11% in 1990)
• CO2 emissions would increase by 10 to 38% (vs 1990) !
EU transport sector in 2030 : energy and CO2 forecast (DGTREN)
… … but emissions of greenhouse gases should be reducedbut emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
• Attractivity of public and railway transport modes (reduction of noise and pollution, TIC)
• Development of energy efficiency of cars : reduction of weight, auxiliaries, motors and combustion
• Biofuels
• Hybrid, plugable hybrid, electrical and natural gas vehicles
• Hydrogen and fuel cells vehicles
Technical options for road transports
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
• Scenario « enhanced energy efficiency of vehicules » (50% gain on unit consumptions), contribution of biofuels (15%) and conventional oil.
• Scenario « fleet segmentation » : development of specific urban vehicle (electric) : limited autonomy for urban travels, alternative schemes of vehicle property (shared property…) + biofuels and conventional oil for other uses and other vehicles.
Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
• Scenario « hydrogen and fuel cells without CO2 » : 2/3 of vehicles are fueled with hydrogen produced by a free CO2 source (eventually with CO2 capture and storage)
• Scenario « electricity and plugable hybrid vehicle» electricity without CO2 for 80% of motor fuel mix + 15% biofuels
Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps (following)
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Years0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Years
penetration rate in new cars soldssurvival ratepenetration rate in the cars stock
Source ADEME from C. GALLEZ
25 to 30 years to transform the cars fleet :INTRODUCTION OF A NEW PRODUCTDISSEMINATION IN THE CAR STOCK
25 to 30 years to transform the cars fleet :INTRODUCTION OF A NEW PRODUCTDISSEMINATION IN THE CAR STOCK
15 years15 years15 years15 years
25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
Reducing energy consumption in transport sector needs specific measures
beyond technological improvements…
-Urban transport of passengers : public transport infrastructures and urban planning, fiscal incentives, road pricing, land taxation…-Interurban transport of passengers : railway infrastructures and new services, taxes and pricing…-Interurban transport of goods : railway infrastructures, logistic services, responsibility of companies ordering transport-Urban delivery of goods : logistic services, urban planning
……Inducing new activities and new jobsInducing new activities and new jobs
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
Source INRETS Gallez 1995 pour l'ADEME
IMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND COIMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND CO22 FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS
IMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND COIMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND CO22 FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000Inhabitant/km2
g/day*capita
Energy CO²
67 %67 %
79 '79 '
31 %31 %
92 '92 '
goe/day*capita
- Urban planning tools for local authorities - Urban planning tools for local authorities - Collective transports development- Collective transports development- Employees traveling plans by companies- Employees traveling plans by companies
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
IMPACT OF MAXIMAL SPEED OF CARS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN URBAN AREA
Source INRETS
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260Maximum speed km/h
urban consumption l/100km
-Tax on vehicles (€/gCO2), incentives for efficient carsTax on vehicles (€/gCO2), incentives for efficient cars
- mandatory speed limitation at vehicle constructionmandatory speed limitation at vehicle construction
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
COMPETITION TGV / AIR PLANECOMPETITION TGV / AIR PLANE
EVOLUTION OF AIR TRAFFIC IN COMPETITION WITH SOUTH EST TGV
(operational in 1981)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Lyon Genève Marseille Nice
EVOLUTION OF AIR TRAFFIC IN COMPETITION WITH ATLANTIC TGV
(operational in 1989)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Nantes Rennes Brest + St Brieuc Lorient + Quimper
BASE 100 1972BASE 100 1972
TGV
-Railway infrastructure developmentRailway infrastructure development-Externalities internalization and cap on CO2 aviation emissionsExternalities internalization and cap on CO2 aviation emissions
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
COMPETITION RAILWAY / PLANE
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9time of travel from station to station (hours)
Sh
are
of
rail
wa
y
TGV
Source METLTM 2002
MODAL SHARE REGARDING TIME OF TRAVELMODAL SHARE REGARDING TIME OF TRAVEL
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
TC direct route
COMPARISON RAILWAY & ROAD TRANSPORTexample Paris<=> Toulouseexample Paris<=> Toulouse
COMPARISON RAILWAY & ROAD TRANSPORTexample Paris<=> Toulouseexample Paris<=> Toulouse
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
source UTI
Particules (g)
NOx / 100 (g)
COV / 10 (g)
CO / 10 (g)
Diesel (m3)
final energy (koe)
Rail-road combinedtransport
Source SNCF ADEME IMPACT
-Regulation of trucks drivers work conditionsRegulation of trucks drivers work conditions-Incentives for companies ordering transportIncentives for companies ordering transport
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
Potential modal shift for goods from road : 27% of domestic, 76% of export/import, 98% of Transit traffic Potential modal shift for goods from road : 27% of
domestic, 76% of export/import, 98% of Transit traffic
Source SES
20002000
Transport Combiné
??
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
t t*km t t*km t t*km
<150 km 150 to 500 km >500 km
A LARGE A LARGE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL MARKETMARKET
A LARGE A LARGE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL MARKETMARKET
-Highway taxation for trucksHighway taxation for trucks- harmonization of truck drivers working legislationharmonization of truck drivers working legislation
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
URBAN GOODS DELIVERY : IMPACT OF LOGISTIC
ORGANISATION
URBAN GOODS DELIVERY : IMPACT OF LOGISTIC
ORGANISATION
10 km 10 km
12 x 500 kg
SCENARIO 1 : PARALLEL DELIVERY
SCENARIO 2 : TURN DELIVERY
6 tons
5 km
Source Ademe
SCENARIO 2 : Division by 4 of COSCENARIO 2 : Division by 4 of CO22 emissions ! emissions !- Urban planning schemes- Urban planning schemes
What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007
Policies and measures in the transport sector will change the structure of related
activities
• Development of new functions in companies, local authorities and as new commercial services
• Strong potential development in the field of Information and Communication activities
• Large investment in infrastructure for the transition
• New industrial scheme for car manufacturers ?• New services for mobility ?