transportation planning analysis unitpnrec 2006 transportation modeling in oregon: overview of odot...

Transportation Planning Analysis Unit PNREC 2006

Transportation Modeling in Oregon:Transportation Modeling in Oregon:Overview of ODOT Statewide Integrated Overview of ODOT Statewide Integrated

ModelModel

Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Becky Knudson

ODOT Transportation Planning Analysis UnitMay 11th, 2006


OverviewOverview

• Intro• Description of Statewide Model• Model Applications• Recap and Questions


IntroductionIntroduction Transportation modeling in Oregon is a

collaborative effort among many jurisdictions and public agencies– 1994 ODOT started the Statewide Model

Improvement Program, established a steering committee

– Mission to coordinate modeling efforts of state, regional and local agencies, promote development and use of state-of-the-art transportation modeling in Oregon


Introduction cont’dIntroduction cont’d

• Program was needed because prevalent modeling methods:– Could not provide information needed to

meet state and federal mandates

– Or answer questions being asked by the public and policy-makers

• Decision-makers needed:– Estimates of effects of policies

– Tools to measure performance


Statewide Statewide ModelModel


Statewide Model: What is it?Statewide Model: What is it?

• Integrated model linking the economy, land use, and transportation elements across state

• Statewide model based on production activity - inputs and outputs, and commodity flow

• Simulates land use and travel behavior mathematically using several computer programs

• Provides a dynamic, price sensitive representation of state economic activity


Statewide Model: How is it Useful?Statewide Model: How is it Useful?

• Provides objective and unbiased comparison between alternative policies

• Reveals trade-offs between different policies

• Reveals synergies gained by combining policies in different ways

• Integrated analysis does not dictate policy, it provides information on how policies will likely play out


Information ProducedInformation Produced

• Statewide model designed to reveal differences in terms of forecast magnitude and direction

• Forecast change in employment, trips, vehicle-miles-of-travel, economic production levels

• NOT designed to predict outcomes, forecast values, or prescribe solutions


Using the Statewide Model Using the Statewide Model We Have Learned:We Have Learned:

• The types of transportation improvements and where they are made affects where jobs and people locate

• Different tax structures affect where firms locate and where workers live

• The supply of land affects the price of land, in turn affecting where firms and households locate.


Application Example: Application Example: Bridge Limitations Study 2002Bridge Limitations Study 2002


The ProblemThe Problem

• Over 500 Oregon bridges identified as cracking 2001– Nearly 25% of Oregon bridges are beyond their 50

year expected life

• Cost to repair or replace bridges $4.7 billion

• Statewide Model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies

• Final Investment strategy based on – Bridge costs– Economic costs– Community & regional Impacts


Alternative SolutionsAlternative Solutions

• No additional bridge investment would lead to– More trucks on road– Higher maintenance & preservation costs– Less future employment growth from higher

transport costs

• Fix interstate bridges:– Ignores routes connecting to interstate system– Benefits state economy, but harms coastal and

central region of state


Best Bridge StrategyBest Bridge Strategy

• One deficient bridge impedes the entire corridor, ODOT shifted from initial “worst-first” strategy to corridor approach

• Improve routes parallel to the interstates to accommodate detoured heavy freight loads

• The order in which roads are opened to heavy loads affects regional economy and livability


ODOT RecommendationODOT Recommendation

• $2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to $4.7B bridge problem

• Address detour routes before interstate construction

• Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half the cost


STAGE 1STAGE 1$92M, 48 bridges$92M, 48 bridges


STAGE STAGE 22

$657M, 161 bridges$657M, 161 bridges


STAGE STAGE 33



STAGE STAGE 44



STAGE STAGE 55



Application Example: Application Example: Central Oregon Central Oregon


LegislativeLegislative Directive: Study Directive: Study New Freeway in Eastern New Freeway in Eastern

OregonOregonThe model was The model was used to evaluate used to evaluate the potential for a the potential for a new freeway to new freeway to divert divert development and development and traffic from traffic from Western Oregon Western Oregon to Central and to Central and Eastern Oregon.Eastern Oregon.

PortlandPortland

SalemSalem

EugeneEugene BendBend

PendletonPendleton

US 395US 395

US 97US 97

PortlandPortland

SalemSalem

EugeneEugene BendBend

PendletonPendleton

US 395US 395

US 97US 97


Application Example: Application Example: Newberg-Dundee Bypass Newberg-Dundee Bypass


The model was used to examine the potential effects of a bypass on growth of population, jobs and travel.

Analysis was part of an Environmental Impact Study for the proposed bypass which resides on a major recreation route and commuter-shed of Portland

Newberg-Dundee: Highway Bypass Newberg-Dundee: Highway Bypass Induced Growth AnalysisInduced Growth Analysis


Modeling/Analysis FindingsModeling/Analysis Findings

• A bypass:– Stimulates economic growth in McMinnville

– Supports greater travel for all purposes

– Has minimal effects on smaller communities in Yamhill County

• Commuter effects vary with a bypass:– Increased commuting by residents in McMinnville vicinity

to Portland

– Increased share of Newberg area commuters to McMinnville (lower share to Portland)


RecapRecap

• Integrated analysis blends the features of land use, transportation and economic activity together to represent the interactions and reveal net effects of change

• Statewide model based on production activity, commodity flow, inputs and outputs

• Valuable tool for policy makers to evaluate alternative policy choices.


QuestionsQuestions

Becky Knudson

Senior Transportation Analyst

Transportation Planning Analysis Unit

555 13th St NE, Suite 2

Salem, OR. 97301

(503) 986-4113

[email protected]

transportation planning analysis unitpnrec 2006 transportation modeling in oregon: overview of odot...

Documents

statewide model slide

transportation elements

state statewide model

oregon slide

performance slide

different policies

oregon bridges

alternative policies