transportation, technology and real estate back …...kpmg global survey, 800 auto executives how...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRANSPORTATION, TECHNOLOGYAND REAL ESTATE
BACK TO THE FUTURE
Bill James, MAI
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Mobile Devices
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Shared resources
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Congestion pricing
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Cost Effective
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Safer
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Private Sector
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Public Sector
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Fixed Routes
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Last Mile – First Mile
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Transportation Management Associations
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Drones
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The Driverless Car Revolution
• Author – Rutt Bridges
• Successful energy tech entrepeneur
• Available on Amazon
• Very inexpensive
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RoboTaxis: What, why, when?
• Two or four seat models, 24/7 mobility-on-demand
• Very cheap Uber with no “surge fees”
• Multi-lingual voice interface, great work space
• Primary mobility for some, second car for families
• As early as 2020, as late as 2025 (snow issue)
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Low cost drives adoption
• Electric RoboTaxis28¢/mile (2 seats)40¢/mile (4 seats plus child seat, bike rack, extra storage)includes a 35% pre-tax profit for the operatorservices from Uber, GM/Lyft, Ford, Google, Mercedes?
• Barclay’s Capital: 8¢/passenger-mile, Columbia Univ: 13¢
Sources: Barclays Capital, May 2015; Columbia Univ, Jan 2013
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The value proposition of RoboTaxis
• Safe, efficient transportation for half to a fourth the cost of owning a car
• Less congestion, faster commutes, less pollution
• No parking or vehicle ownership hassles
• Low-stress door-to-door service while you work, read, relax
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First ride: The Google Car prototype
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Mercedes concept limo
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Local Motors 3D Printed Electric Bus
Test rides now available near
Washington DC
Pilot projects planned in
Miami-Dade and Las Vegas
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Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Consumer Reports, Driverless Car Revolution (35% pre-tax profit)
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000
CR median sedan RoboTaxi-solo RoboTaxi-ride share
Taxes
Interest
Insurance
Maintenance
Fuel
Depreciation
$3,360
$8,125
$1,680
Solo ride: Saves $4,765 per yearRide share: Saves $6,445 per year
Economics drives adoption: Cost per 12,000 miles
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Why it matters: Family transportation budget
32%Housing
19%Transportation
13%Food
36%Other
Source: Federal Highway Administration
• Transportation is the second-largest drain on a family’s disposable income
• Early adopters: Millennials, seniors, low income, disabled community, “alcohol-impaired”
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Why will RoboTaxis be electric?
• Fuel costs: unless gasoline falls below $1/gallon…
• Falling battery costs, 250+ miles range by 2020
• Long vehicle life reduces depreciation
• Low maintenance costs: 30,000 mile service interval
What RoboTaxis don't haveInternal combustion engine Starter Alternator Timing belts
Exhaust system Catalytic converter Oil, lines & filter Air intake filter
Transmission Gas tank Fuel pump Spark plugs
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BMW i3 carbon fiber frame
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Will RoboTaxis be safe?
• Google driverless road tests : 7 years, 1.64 million miles
• 3 million miles per day in simulators
• 18 minor accidents (14 rear-enders), one minor injury
• Google at fault only oncesoftware fix in all vehicles within 2 weeks
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How important is safety?
• 38,300 died in 2015 / 4.4 million serious injuries
• Imagine a Boeing 737 crashing five days a week
• 94% of accidents are due to distraction, drowsiness, drunkenness, or driver error
• Driverless cars don’t suffer much from those problems
Sources: NHTSA, National Safety Council, Wikipedia
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Google prototype: Sensors and redundancies
• 360 degree view out to 200 yards, updated every tenth of a second
• Redundant BRAKING, STEERING, and COMPUTING systems
• Working on software to detect hackers and other attacks
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Who benefits the most from RoboTaxis?
• The public: $$$, free time, safety, congestion
• Taxpayers and government: Less road expansion
• The environment: Cleaner/greener, urban parks
• Developers: Redevelop parking space, provide more affordable housing with lower parking ratios
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Benefits for lower-income communities
• 24/7 door-to-door service for far less than bus fare
• Faster commutes means more time with families
• Cheap, reliable transportation means better jobs
• On-demand, low-cost transportation for seniors, youth, the disabled, and everyone else
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RoboTaxis and the environment
• Zero emissions, but some “long tailpipes”
• Better local air quality, much less noise
• The shift from coal to solar, wind, and natural gas
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Parking: Re-use of Space
• Personally-owned vehicles sit parked 95% of the time
• A billion parking spaces for 253 million vehicles
• 31% of downtown cores are used for parking
Sources: UC Berkeley: Parking Infrastructure and the Environment, New Republic
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Parking: How much space is wasted?
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RoboTaxis’ impact on congestion
• Congestion due to accidents and road construction
• “Connected” RoboTaxis can bypass congestion
• Analytics can predict demand and preposition RoboTaxis
• Connected vehicles “platoon” in express lanes
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What is Platooning?
1:30
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Who is most at risk?
• Automakers, dealers, suppliers, …
• The global oil industry and “petro-nations”
• The auto insurance industry
• Parking lot owners, car rentals, taxis, local buses
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KPMG Global Survey, 800 auto executives
How likely is a major business model disruption in the next five years?
2015: 12% 2016: 82%Extremely likely
Somewhat likely
Somewhat unlikely
Not likely at all
Neutral
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36%25% 23%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Direct sales tocustomers
Sales viadealerships
Mobility serviceprovider
Manufacturevehicles for ITC's
Survey of 200 Global Automaker Executives
KPMG Survey: Most likely business models by 2025
Source: KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2016
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Automakers: Car sales or mobility services?
• Ford:CEO: “Become a mobility company, not just an automaker”$4.5 billion investment in electrified vehicle solutionsFord Smart Mobility LLC: Car sharing & “Uber cloning”
• GM:$1 billion acquisition of Cruise Automation$500 million to buy 10% of Lyft
• Daimler: Paid $100 million for RideScout, VW $300 million into Gett, Apple $1 billion into Didi Chuxing
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Not if, but when…
First Technical Availability?nuTonomy: 2016 (Singapore) GM/Lyft: 2017 first trials
Google: 2018 Tesla: 2018
BMW/Baidu: 2018 (China) Volvo: 2018 (London, etc)In testing: Nissan, Mercedes, Ford, Honda, Audi, VW
U.S. availability: delayed by regulatory issues?Colorado availability: delayed due to snow?
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Transit and the challenge of congestion
Local and state governments are strapped for cash at a time of major population growth and
increasing congestion.
Are there rational, cost-effective alternatives?
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A growing problem
• Metro Denver growth: 3.1 to 4.1 million by 2040• Can we find billions to expand highways?
we can’t even find millions to maintain them!did more lane-miles fix Los Angeles?
• $2.06 billion: Current cost of metro area congestion• We must find new solutions
Sources: Colorado State Demographer, 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard
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Promoting ridesharing is critical
• 87% of U.S. trips are two or fewer passengers
• Nine out of ten commuters ride solo
• Low-cost two-person RoboTaxi ridesharingkeep it simple, minimize delays, 14¢/passenger-mile
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70.1%
9.0% 7.4% 6.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.9%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Drovealone
Carpool PublicTransit
Work athome
Walk Bike Other
What can we do about SOV’s?
1.07 commuters per car, truck or van
7 out of 10 “carpools” only carry two people
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014
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Source: International Sustainable Institute’s Commuter Toolkit poster
• Two hundred people clogging a street with their 177 cars
Why transit matters: Single-occupancy vehicles
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Source: International Sustainable Institute’s Commuter Toolkit poster
• Without the cars they don’t take up much space…
Why transit matters: Single-occupancy vehicles
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Business as usual won’t solve this problem
Source: International Sustainable Institute’s Commuter Toolkit poster
• And they all would fit in one rail car, RTD’s largest and most efficient electric vehicle!
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Why don’t more people use public transit?
“…the travel time by public transit is almost twice the travel time by driving alone.”
U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration
Source: Census Transportation Planning Products
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Reasons more people don’t ride buses
• “The bus takes me from where I’m not, to not quite where I want to go…"
• “I’d have to change buses”
• “I may need my car at the office"
• “My work schedule is too erratic"
• “Some people can be unpleasant travel companions”
Sources: Interviews and various studies
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Subsidy impact on total service cost
Is there a better way to deliver transit services for far
less than $9.78 per passenger?
True cost of bus service including subsidiesFarebox
ratioLocal bus
fareSubsidy from
taxes and grantsTrue “total cost”
of a bus ride
0.21 $2.60 $9.78 $12.38
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Replace buses with Free PPP Carpools
By 2020, 4-passenger RoboTaxis will be available for about 40 cents per mile. The private partner’s dispatch software
will arrange four-person carpools and manage the RoboTaxi fleet, providing on-demand 24/7 door-to-door service. By routing around congestion and platooning in HOV and bus lanes, transit times will be as good or better
than SOV’s. Passengers will be free to work or relax.
A ten-mile ride will cost RTD about $1 per passenger.
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Personal security for RoboTaxi carpools
All trips will be videoed. A panic button or a cry of “Help!” will bring intervention by online-
counselors. After an initial warning, a moderately disruptive passenger will lose his right to a free
ride for a week.
If the incident is serious, intervention counselors will summon police to intercept the RoboTaxi.
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Other advantages of carpools versus buses
• Bus subsidies cover the cost of free carpool rides:a single $10 local bus fare subsidy pays for up to 8 carpool riders plus 2 free rides to rail and express bus stationsthe expense and hassle of managing payments is eliminatedFREE is a huge motivation to use public transit!
• In 2012, the Free MallRide delivered 13% of RTD boardings
• The carpool fleet can be dynamically sized by using 2-seat RoboTaxis when demand is low
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Feed more riders into rail and express buses
Using 14¢/passenger-mile RoboTaxis, feed rail or express bus riders within a 3 mile radius into transit stations. Provide coordinated just-in-time, round trip home-to-station service for an average cost of less than $1 per passenger. Use savings on bus subsidies to make this a FREE service.
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Provide coordinated door-to-door mass transit
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Let’s review why people wouldn’t ride buses
• Travel time is twice that of SOV’s: Now as good or better!
• “The bus takes me from where I’m not, to not quite where I want to go…” Door-to-door service
• “I’d have to change buses” Not any more…
• “I may need my car at the office” So, rent a RoboTaxi!
• “My work schedule is too erratic” Available 24/7 on-demand
• “People can be unpleasant…” Strong personal security measures
Sources: Interviews and various studies
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
• Cujus est solum, ejus est usque ad coelom – Whose is the soil, his it is up to the sky.
“That doctrine has no place in the modern world.” United States v. Causby, 328 U.S. 256, 261 (1946)
“The United States Government has exclusive sovereignty of airspace of the United States.” “A citizen of the United States has a public right of transit through the navigable airspace.” (49 U.S.C. §40103(a))
Navigable airspace – Airspace above the minimum altitudes of flight prescribed by FAA regulations, including airspace needed to ensure safety in takeoff and landing of aircraft. (49 U.S.C. § 40102(a)(32))
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
FAA claims broad authority to regulate airspace from the ground up to protect persons and aircraft in the air and persons and property on the ground. (49 U.S.C. § 40103(b)(2))
Question – What is the extent of the landowner’s right in the airspace above his or her property?
Existing body of law concerning airspace and property rights in the context of manned aircraft.
Analyses of similar issues related to UAS operations may build on these precedents.
When does drone flight constitute a trespass or a nuisance?
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
United States v. Causby, 328 U.S. 256, 261 (1946)Takings claims related to aircraft takeoffs and landings over commercial chicken farm.“The landowner owns at least as much of the space above the ground as he can occupy or use in connection with the land.” “The superadjacent airspace at this low altitude is so close to the land that continuous invasions of it affect the use of the surface of the land itself. We think that the landowner, as an incident to ownership, has a claim to it and that invasions of it are in the same category as invasions of the surface.”“The airplane is part of the modern environment of life, and the inconveniences which it causes are not normally compensable under the Fifth Amendment. The airspace, apart from the immediate reaches above the land, is part of the public domain. We need not determine at this time what those precise limits are. Flights over private land are not a taking unless they are so low and so frequent as to be a direct and immediate interference with the enjoyment and use of the land.
Causby left unanswered many questions concerning the physical and legal extent of the landowner’s airspace interest as compared to navigable airspace and aircraft operations.
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
Thompson v. City and Cnty. of Denver, 958 P.2d 525 (Colo. App. 1998)(for takings purposes, “the surface owner’s property interest in airspace above the land is generally limited to that airspace which is below navigable limits”)
Claassen v. City and Cnty. of Denver, 30 P.3d 710 (Colo. App. 2000)(“absent a physical invasion into the airspace above plaintiff’s property that is below navigable airspace, there can be no physical taking”)
Takings issue could arise in the context of public agency use of UAS
Takings cases may be helpful in understanding extent of surface owner’s airspace rights
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
Trespass
“The elements for the tort of trespass are a physical intrusion upon the property of another without the proper permission from the person legally entitled to possession of that property. The intrusion can occur when an actor intentionally enters land possessed by someone else, or when an actor causes something else to enter the land.” Hoery v. United States, 64 P.3d 214, 217 (Colo. 2003)
“Flight by aircraft in the air space above the land of another is a trespass if, but only if, (a) it enters into the immediate reaches of the air space next to the land, and (b) it interferes substantially with the other’s use and enjoyment of his land.” Restatement (Second) of Torts, § 159, Intrusions Upon, Beneath and Above Surface of Earth
Applying Causby reasoning that the “landowner owns at least as much of the space above the ground as he can occupy or use in connection with the land,” question is whether drone flight over property interferes with the landowner’s use and enjoyment of that portion of the airspace to which he or she can claim a right.
Absent state statute, trespass claim may be decided on a case-by-case, factual analysis.
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Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights
Nuisance
Nuisance claim does not require entry onto property and could be based on actions on or over adjacent property. Hoery v. United States, 64 P.3d 214, 218 (Colo. 2003)
Restatement (Second) of Torts, § 821D, Private Nuisance, “A private nuisance is a nontrespassory invasion of another’s interest in the private use and enjoyment of land.”
Question – When does a drone flight over adjacent property constitute a nuisance?
Absent state statute, nuisance claim may be decided on a case-by-case, factual analysis.
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Legal Issues – Privacy and Data Collection
Traditional Privacy Claims
Intrusion upon seclusion
Public disclosure of private facts
Publicity which puts person in a “false light”
Appropriation of Likeness
Other Privacy Related Issues
News Gathering
Law Enforcement
Regulatory Actions
Activists
Commercial Competition
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Questions?