transportation technology infrastructure: a smarter …...2018/11/15 · (2015);morgan stanley...
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2018 Best Best & Krieger LLP
Transportation Technology Infrastructure: A Smarter Future Requires Smarter
InfrastructureBB&K Transportation Technology Webinar Series
November 15, 2018
@smartertranspo
Company/BestBestKrieger
SMART MOBILITY IN CITIES
AUTONOMOUS AND CONNECTED
• “Smart” Infrastructure Discussion Needed
• Sensors?• Antennas?• V2X?
• Local control of ROW• ITS / “Spectrum”
PROPOSED “TIPs” FOR LAYING FOUNDATION
• Opportunity to promote Vision• Important “Smart” Issues:
• Data Sharing• Privacy and Cybersecurity• Land Use • Health and Safety (i.e. Disposal) • Resiliency• Coordination with Law Enforcement
DATA, DATA, DATA….
INFORMED CONSENT TO INFORMED RISK?
SMART CITY CHALLENGE
• $40 million to ONE city to fully integrate innovative technologies – self-driving cars, connected vehicles and smart sensors
• Finalists: Austin, TX; Columbus, OH; Denver, CO; Kansas City, MO; Pittsburgh, PA; Portland, OR; and San Francisco, CA
• Winner: Columbus, OH• Information Sharing / Best Practices Development
• For more information: https://www.transportation.gov/smartcity
FAST ACT EXPIRES IN 2020
• Issues on the horizon for smart infrastructure discussion as part of surface transportation reauthorization bill:
• Balancing traditional surface transportation with new “first/last” mile projects using emerging technologies
• Controlled modernization that also considers maintenance • Remaining tech neutral • Role of public vs. private sector • New revenue models to replace aging “gas tax”
MAKE YOUR VOICES HEARD
• Ongoing comment opportunities:• ANPRM for AV Pilot Programs – Due Nov. 23• AV 3.0 – Due Dec. 7
• Comment opportunities “down the road”:• Streamlining FMVSS exemption process• Automated Driving Systems and Commercial Trucks• Update to Uniform Traffic Control Devices Manual
2018 Best Best & Krieger LLP
GREG RODRIGUEZ@smartertranspo
Best Best & Krieger LLP
Washington, D.C.
www.bbklaw.com
Transportation Technology
Infrastructure: A Smarter Future Requires Smarter Infrastructure
Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICP
November 15, 2018
BB&K Transportation Technology Webinar Series
Electric Shared
AutomatedConnected
New Mobility
Source: WSP, 2017.
New Mobility
Private Ownership Model
Driven by Auto Industry
Incremental Moves in Functionalities
Privately Owned
Here Today
Primarily Driven by Tech and Ride-Hailing Companies
Jump to Fully Automated
Mobility-as-a-Service
A few (or many, many) years away
Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis)
Two Paths
Speed of
Technological
Advancement
Economics Public
Acceptance
Political Support Market for a
Shared Model
Key Factors
Waymo Miles Driven
Source: Waymo Tweet, .October 11, 2018
And on Tuesday……
Waymo to Start First Driverless Car Service Next Month Bloomberg, November 13, 2018
GOOGLE SPIN-OFF WAYMO SET TO BEAT UBER AND LYFT TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING TAXI SERVICE
Anthony Cuthbertson, The Independent, November 14, 2018
Waymo CEO Says Alphabet Unit Plans to Launch Driverless Car Service in Coming Months
Douglas MacMillan and Tim Higgins, The Wall
Street Journal, November 14, 2018
Annual Market Value of Shared Mobility in 2030
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
An
nu
al M
ark
et V
alu
e
($U
S T
)
Uber orders up to 24,000 Volvo XC90s for driverless fleet
Darrell Etherington, TechCrunch November 21, 2017
Waymo Orders Up to 20,000 Jaguar SUVs for Driverless Fleet – WSJ
Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2018
Up to 62,000 additional Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans will join Waymo's driverless fleet, starting in late 2018
PRNewswire, May 31, 2018
Things are Heating Up…..
Political Support
Gov. Doug Ducey welcomes Uber self-driving cars with open arms
The Arizona Republic, December 23, 2016
Uber, Lyft dealt a major blow after New York City votes to cap vehicle licenses
Seung Lee, www.mercurynews.com, August 8, 2018
Ride-Hailing Companies Agree to Tax in San Francisco James Brasuell,
www.planetizen.com, August 18, 2018
Impacts to Transit
Average Length of Transit Trips (2011)
Source: APTA 2011 Fact Book
Source: http://uberestimate.com/prices/Philadelphia/ (April 14, 2018); ARK Investment Management (2015);Morgan Stanley (2016); World Economic Forum/ Boston Consulting Group (2016)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Shared AVs (2030)
Shared AV Mobility Vehicle Cost Per Mile
Potential Shared AV Markets
How Might This Play Out?
Slow Roll
Slow Roll
Competing
Private
Slow Roll
Competing
Private
Cooperative Private
Slow Roll
Competing
Private
Cooperative Private
Integrated
Slow Roll
Competing
Private
Cooperative Private
Integrated
Slow Roll
Competing
Private
Cooperative Private
Integrated
From Transit Agency to Mobility Integrator
Wildcards
Public Backlash Regarding
Data and Privacy
Catastrophic
Event
So, are there infrastructure planning opportunities for New Mobility?
• Not sure if many of these models actually pencil out
• Most operators are keeping their plans close to the vest and appear to be seeking infrastructure-lite solutions
• Many major capacity expansion projects will be questioned
• Public sector agencies are not sure of what they need
ITS and Opportunities
• Connected will likely make automated better
• Public sector agencies are struggling to understand how they should invest
• There will be concerns about public sector liability
Funding Strategies
• Recognizing that the gas tax will slowly (or quickly) erode, many states are now exploring options
• Limited interest in traditional cordon congestion pricing
• A digitally-mapped world with GPS-enabled vehicles permits a virtually unlimited number of options for pricing around:
• Road usage• Congestion pricing
Modernizing Infrastructure
• Continued focus on state of good repair
• Infrastructure-lite solutions
• Public sector organizations need to think about digital infrastructure and strategies
Key Takeaways
• Shared AVs will create new options, but primarily in urban areas
• Both the private and public sector will be seeking low-risk, infrastructure-lite solutions
• Pricing can influence demand for these services, so defensible pricing models will help the public sector manage this new world
• We need to begin to rethink the mission and roles of our departments of transportation and transit agencies
“The best way to predict
the future is to create it.”
What We’re Reading
Resources
Resources
Resources
Resources
Resources
Transportation Technology
Infrastructure:A Smarter Future Requires Smarter Infrastructure
Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICP
www.advancingtransport.com