TRAVEL AND GAS PRICESA LOOK AT THE IMPACT ON RV VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKSAnsmann, Markus; Booth, Lawrence; Firestine, Theresa; Laptev, Nikolay; Smedsrud, Berthe; Tang, Lingli

University of California Santa Barbara. Department of Economics

Overview

Project Description Determine the relationship between national gas

prices and decline in RV visits to National Parks. Surprising results are found which contradict claims

made by several news posts, including the Denver Post.

Project Methodology Pre-Whiten. Granger Causality. Forecast

Key Findings/Results No evidence of impact of gas prices on RV N.P.

visits. Forecasted RV visits in the future.

Conclusion Possible explanation: Change of preferences.

Project Description

Objective Discover relationship between RV visits to

National Parks. Results

No relationship between monthly gas prices and the monthly number of RV visits from 1983.01 to 2006.12

Suggests that the media’s claim of gas prices changing RV camper’s preferences is wrong.

Forecast

Procedure/Methodology (1)

Fig1: (L to R) Month to month gas prices. Pre-whitened gas prices. To pre-whiten we take the log, season difference

and difference our data.

Procedure/Methodology (2)

Fig2: Month to month changes in RV visits to national parks. The graph above includes both time series and pre-

whitened time-series.

Key Findings/Results 1

Fig 3: We cannot reject the null based on the F stats and its critical value.

Model Estimation/Result 2

Fig 4: Estimated, orthogonal, model for pre-whitened gas

Model Estimation/Result 3

Fig 5: Suspect ARCH term (on the left) so we estimate a new model (on the right)

Forecast of Gas Prices/Result 4a

Fig 6a: The goodness of fit of our model (in-sample forecast).

Fig 6b: Sample comparison of thegoodness of fit of our model. Units are in a relative metric.

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Forecast of Gas Prices/Result 4b

Fig 6c: Forecasted gas prices including the 95% confidence interval

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Fig 6d: Predicting gas will cost lessover the summer.

Model Estimation/Result 5

Fig 6: Model for RV Campers

Model Estimation/Result 6

Fig 7: ARCH not necessary

Forecast of RV Visits/Result 7a

Fig 8a: The goodness of fit of our model.

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Fig 8b: Sample comparison of thegoodness of fit of our model. Units are in number of campers per month

Forecast of RV Visits/Result 7b

Fig 9a: Forecasted RV N.P. visits including the 95% confidence interval

Fig 9b: As expected, incrediblenumbers over the summer, and surprisingly low numbers in December.

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Conclusion

Change of preferences of RV National Park campers fuel the decline in visits per month.

Gas prices do not influence RV campers. Lowest visits to National Parks during the

month of December Gas prices expected to decline this

summer

Questions and Discussion