travel modeling at mtc david ory ([email protected]) metropolitan transportation commission november...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Travel Modeling at MTC
David Ory ([email protected])Metropolitan Transportation CommissionNovember 17 and 18, 2011
Presentation to Triangle Region Model Expert Panel
![Page 2: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2Image source: flickr.com/Michael Caven
Day 1
![Page 3: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Technical features.
Data collection and management.
Time frame for model development.
Key questions.
![Page 4: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Technical features.
Data collection and management.
Time frame for model development.
Key questions.
![Page 5: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Space 1454 TAZs ~ Census tracts Each TAZ includes three non-spatial activity sub-
zones: short-walk to transit, long-walk to transit, cannot walk to transit – activities occur in one of these three sub-zones
Time Activities are scheduled hourly, between 5 am and
midnight Roadway and transit supply is represented for five
time periods: 3 am to 6 am; 6 am to 10 am; 10 am to 3 pm; 3 pm to 7 pm; 7 pm to 3 am
Creation of agents ARC Population Synthesizer (w/ 304 household-
level control categories in the base year) Land use
Association of Bay Area Governments UrbanSim and PECAS models under-development
5
![Page 6: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Worker or student status (from census)
SF CBD
Two cars
Work and school locations selected
Zone X
Household auto ownership level chosen
Not work
Work
School
Not school
Daily activity patterns chosen jointly
1 Tour
1 Tour
Mandatory tours generated
![Page 7: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
7 to 7
Mandatory tours are scheduled
8 to 4
2 Joint Tours
1 At-work Tour
1 Non-mandatory Tour
2 Joint Tours
Non-mandatory travel is generated
Destinations for non-mandatory tours are selected
Zoo, Market
McDonald’s
Jimmy’s House
Zoo, Market
8 to 11; 3 to 4
12 to 1
5 to 6
8 to 11, 3 to 4
Non-mandatory tours are scheduled
![Page 8: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Drive to zoo; walk to market
Drive to work; drive to lunch
Transit to school; bike to Jimmy’s
Ride to zoo; walk to market
Mode choice for all tours
Stop frequency; stop location; stop time
No stops
Starbucks near home
No stops
No stops
Shared ride 2; Walk
Drive; Drive; Drive
Transit; Bicycle
Shared ride 2; Walk
Trip mode choice
![Page 9: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Feedback Through the entire model stream
Sampling and run-time Scenario run: 15/25/50 ~24 hours Conformity run: 15/25/50/100 ~36
hours Hardware and Software
Cube & Cube Cluster PB CT-RAMP Four identical machines
Each with 8 processors, 48 GB of RAM
9
![Page 10: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Technical features.
Data collection and management.
Time frame for model development.
Key questions.
![Page 11: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Home interview survey Year 2000, MTC, $1.5 million Year 2011/12, with Caltrans, $1.5 million
On-board surveys Individual operator data used for model
dev. Year 2010 ?, $750,000 so far Goal is continuous survey program Ridership information collected via
universal fare media Roadways
Caltrans PeMS Struggle to get good arterial data MTC traveler information (segment speeds)
11
![Page 12: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Technical features.
Data collection and management.
Time frame for model development.
Key questions.
![Page 13: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Plan Issue RFP in 2005 Consultant specifies
the model structure Consultant writes the
software MTC estimates the
models (with consultant assistance)
MTC calibrates the models (with consultant assistance)
Complete estimation by ~2007
Actual Issue RFP in 2005 Consultant specifies
the model structure Consultant writes the
software Coefficients are
borrowed and estimated by consultant
Consultant calibrates the models (with MTC’s guidance)
Model ready for use December 2010
13
![Page 14: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Technical features.
Data collection and management.
Time frame for model development.
Key questions.
![Page 15: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Development Importance of model
estimation Software, software,
software Overseeing calibration What is your agency
good at, what is the consultant team good at
Application High-occupancy toll
lanes Land development
patterns on walking, transit
Cordon pricing Roadway operation
strategies Greenhouse gas
emissions Telecommuting Parking pricing Diverse transit modes
15
![Page 16: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
What do you see as the benefits of having an activity-based model (ABM)?
1. The ease of communicating the model structure – behavioral realism
2. Directly answer “can you” questions – particularly those related to equity
3. Summarizing the results – endless possibilities
16
![Page 17: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Was the value added by the ABM worth the cost?
1. Yes. The value of easily describing the model structure alone is worth the cost (e.g. never again defining a “home-based work” trip to glassy-eyed on-lookers).
2. The platform facilities extensions/further innovations. 17
![Page 18: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
What do you see as the drawbacks of having an ABM?
1. Theoretically complex2. Technically complex3. Computationally complex4. Explicit answers to lots and lots of
questions
18
![Page 19: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
How does the model work compared to your expectations?
1. The PB software is far more stable than I anticipated (crashes are very rare).
2. Analyzing the data is far more interesting and rewarding than I anticipated.
3. The behavioral realism and consistency is greater than I expected. 19
![Page 20: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What would you change if you could?
1. More resources (computers, consulting budget, staff)
2. Sponsor multiple grants to software developers with guiding standards
3. More detail – smaller zones, richer roadway details, finer temporal resolution, etc… 20
![Page 21: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
In your opinion, what was the most difficult part of the model development?
1. Being brave and patient during model calibration
2. Dealing with sparse and limited data
21
![Page 22: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
If you were starting again from scratch, what would you do differently?
1. Collaborate with multiple MPOs – working with ARC was terrific
2. Let the consultants do what they do well
3. Try and improve upon what we do well
22
![Page 23: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Knowing what you know now, would you again choose to develop an ABM?
1. Yes. There is no (real) debate as to whether the ABM approach is superior to the trip-based approach. The question is whether the costs are commiserate with the benefits.
23
![Page 24: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Have you used your ABM to support LRTP development?
1. Currently using the model to support our 2013 RTP – through 2 of 3 rounds of alternatives analysis.
2. The demands of the model are far greater because the model is far more capable.
24
![Page 25: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
How does your agency store and manage data?
1. Runs require about 40 GB of data, depending on the sample size.
2. Runs are archived (about 1 GB of data) on a cloud server. Storage has not been an issue for us.
25
![Page 26: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
How do consultants run the model, how do you share results?
1. Too early to know 2. Currently share all files (execution and
results), posted on a wiki managed by the modeling group
3. Working on a more formal data repository to share model results as well as GIS data 26
![Page 27: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
How does data management differ between trip-based models and ABM?
1. Challenges with distributing files to knowledgeable users are the same
2. Working with researchers is far easier as the results are far easier to understand
27
![Page 28: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
What innovations, if any, do you recommend regarding data collection and management?1. Outward facing database of results
28
![Page 29: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29Image source: flickr.com/shapiro125
Day 2
![Page 30: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Annual investment in modeling.
Team structure, roles, and responsibilities.
What works well and what could benefit from modifications/improvements.
![Page 31: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Annual investment in modeling.
Team structure, roles, and responsibilities.
What works well and what could benefit from modifications/improvements.
![Page 32: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Full time travel modeling staff One principal, four associates ABAG: one principal, one associate MTC helps fund ABAG efforts as well as
significant county modeling efforts Development support
~$150,000 annually (varies) Consultants do majority of the work
Application support ~$50,000 for RTP support MTC does the majority of the work
Data collection ~$1.5 million every decade for home
interview ~$250,000 annually for on-board survey
(goal)32
![Page 33: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Annual investment in modeling.
Team structure, roles, and responsibilities.
What works well and what could benefit from modifications/improvements.
![Page 34: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Principal Reports to Planning Section Director Manages development and application
activities Application lead Oversees GIS activities
Associates Highway network lead Transit network lead Data lead Air quality lead
County modeling staff Project-level work
ABAG Land use development and application
activities34
![Page 35: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Annual investment in modeling.
Team structure, roles, and responsibilities.
What works well and what could benefit from modifications /improvements.
![Page 36: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
The Good Play to our strengths: management, writing,
coding projects, attention to detail, over-arching technical approach
Information technology staff Consultants
The Mixed Software County-level models Staff development
The Not-so-good Land use modeling housed in a separate
agency36
![Page 37: Travel Modeling at MTC David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission November 17 and 18, 2011 Presentation to Triangle Region Model](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020800/56649e535503460f94b48cb6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37Image source: flickr.com/Steve Punter
Questions