7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

1/15

www.renac.de 1

CSP - Cost and Innovation Perspectives

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

2/15

CSP Cost Situation - Introductory Remarks

Cost is a sensitive issue, and an important one

Influencing factors on cost of CSP plants

Cost of Technology

Competitive situation of component suppliers (e.g.oligopol)

ompe ve s ua on o mar e s(e.g. generous Spanish CSP-tariffs)

Risk evaluation(e.g. new technologies, countries, companiesinfrastructure)

www.renac.de 2

(energy yield and hence LEC)

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

3/15

Cost of recently built CSP plants

Andasol 1Nevada Solar One

Built by Acciona in

PS 10

Built by Abengoa inAndalucia/S ain

Power 50 MWe

7 hours salt storage

64 MWe

no storage

Power 11 MWe,

30 min. steam storage

Solar field: 510000 m2

Invest: 300 MSolar field: 375000 m

2

Invest: 266 M$Solar field: 75000 mInvestment: 43 M

www.renac.de 3

Solarmillennium Acciona Abengoa

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

4/15

Why are CSP plants (and investments) so large?

www.renac.de 4

-

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

5/15

Investment Cost Distribution

80 MWel SEGS plant no storage:

el, ours s orage

Sargent & Lundy (2003, nearterm scenario) DLR

Solar field: 50% -70% of investment

Storage cost depends on storage size

www.renac.de 5

Land costs usually are minor part

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

6/15

LEC for first Californian SEGS plants

California SEGS plants: down to 11 USct/kW

NREL 1999

www.renac.de 6

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

7/15

Levelised electricity cost

California SEGS plants: down to 11 $ct/kW

Spain has 30% less sun and pays: 27 ct/kWh

pprox. o s nves men cos s

Approx. 20% of LEC is O&M costs (personnel, spareparts, water, others)

,

www.renac.de 7

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

8/15

Main technical improvements leading to cost reduction

Linear Fresnel Collectors cheaper mirrors and receiver, stationary receiver

Direct Steam Generation no HTF/HE lower arasitics hi her tem .

Storage improvement

Solar Gas Turbine approach for Tower .

System integration

www.renac.de 8

- ,

cooling, desalination

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

9/15

Expected Cost Reduction by WGA

Cost red. effects:

ca e-up

R&D

earn ng e ec s

Assumes marketgrowth of 4000 MWby 2015

Western Governors Association (2006)

www.renac.de 9

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

10/15

Expected Market Development

Fraunhofer ISE

www.renac.de 10

at least 4 GWel installed CSP capacity by 2015 is reasonable

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

11/15

Expected Market Development - other CSP studies

180

200

e]

orse

Pilkington

120

140

acity[G

S&L 2003

60

80100

atedca

p

Sarrazin 2007

BMU 2006

20

40

cumul

GMI

IEA Solar aces

FhG-ISE2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fraunhofer ISE

www.renac.de 11

around 20 GWel installed CSP capacity by 2020 is reasonable

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

12/15

Expected Cost Reduction by WGA

WGA: LEC by CSP will drop to 8 $ct/kWh by 2015

Mean Base load price in Europe in 2008: 8.3 $ct/kWhSource: European Energy Exchange

Mid- and peak load more expensive

www.renac.de 12

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

13/15

BUT: CSP market growth must be stimulated

Today, CSP is not yet cost competitive

Subsidiary incentives are needed to finance market introduction phase,until cost-competitivity is reached:

Feed-in-tariffsQuota systems (with penalties!)

Tax credits

Funds

www.renac.de 13

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

14/15

CSP feed-in-tariff for Chile?

Feed-in-tariffs proved to be very effective (e.g. Germany, Spain)

By 2007, at least 37 countries and 9 states/provinces had adopted feed-in policies, more than half of which have been enacted since 2002.

Advantage for CSP feed-in-tariff:

financial and political security

For economy / businesses:Build up CSP industry as first country in Latin-America

For economy: job creation and money remains in Chile (no fuel import)

www.renac.de 14

7/26/2019 TREE CSP D 8 Cost Innovation

15/15

CSP Cost and Innovation Perspectives - SUMMARY

LECs of CSP plants today range between 10 and 30 ct/kWh depending

on technology and site

Storage increases full load hours and profitability of plants

Short-term cost effects (e.g. oligopols) will be overcome within 1-3

yearsCost reduction by: R&D, plant scale-up, mass production

Cost competitivity within less than 10 years expected

By then, subsidiary market structures are needed

Peru can be one of the CSP pioneers in Latin America and the Worldwith its great solar resources

www.renac.de 15