trend dan prospek konsumsi gula di indonesia - lpem

Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Volume XLVIX Nomor 3 , JOOI

Trend dan Prospek Konsumsi Gula di Indonesia

Henri Fitriadi and Isang Gonarsyah'

Abstract

This study analysis factors affecting the amount of sugarcane consumption in Indonesia and makes some projection on the total amount of sugarcane needed by this country up to 2010. The findings indicate that in Indonesia sugarcane still becomes the main source of sweeteners for households and food and beverage industries. Consumers' preference for sugarcane tends to increase, especially in the rural areas. The projection results show that in the period of 2000 - 2010 Indonesia needs more than 3 million tons of sugarcane annually.

Respectively, Research Assistant, and Professor in Agribusiness at the I-aboratory of Agricultural Marketing and Trade, Department of Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, and Head of Development Economics Study Program, Bogor .Agricultural University (IPB), Bogor

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Henri Fitriadi dan Isang Conarsyah

1. P E N D A H U L U A N

G u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i h a s i l i n d u s t r i o l a h a n p e r t a n i a n m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u d a r i s e m b i l a n b a h a n p a n g a n p o k o k m a s y a r a k a t I n d o n e s i a . T i n g k a t k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a m a s i h r e l a t i f r e n d a h , y a i t u 1 7 , 1 2 k g / k a p i t a / t a h u n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 5 , y a n g b e r a r t i d i b a w a h r a t a - r a t a k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d u n i a s e b e s a r 2 . 0 , 3 k e k a p i t a / t a h u n . M e n u r u t P o l a P a n g a n H a r a p a n ( P P H ) , k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r m e n c a p a i 6 , 7 p e r s e n d a r i t o t a l k o n s u m s i k a l o r i , s e m e n t a r a p a d a s a a t i n i b a r u 3 p e r s e n . D e n g a n m e n g a c u p a d a P P T 4 m a s i h t e r d a p a t p o t e n s i k e n a i k a n k o n s u m s i y a n g c u k u p b e s a r .

B e r d a s a r k a n b e r b a g a i h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n t e r d a h u l u ( L a m p i r a n 1 ) , n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n m e m p e r l i h a t k a n , k e c e n d e r u n g a n y a n g s e m a k i n m e n u r u n d a r i t a h u n k e t a h u n d a n d e n g a n s e m a k i n t i n g g i n y a g o l o n g a n p e n d a p a t a n . H a l i n i m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n , b a h w a p o l a k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r m a s y a r a k a t s e n a n t i a s a b e r u b a h s e i r i n g d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e n d a p a t a n d a n b e r j a l a n n y a w a k t u . O l e h k a r e n a n y a , t a k s i r a n m e n g e n a i b e s a r a n n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n p e r t u t e r u s d i p e r b a h a r u i u n t u k d a p a t m e n g a n t i s i p a s i k e b u t u h a n a k a n g u l a p a s i r d i m a s a m e n d a t a n g s e c a r a l e b i h m u r a h .

S e j a k d i b e b a s k a n n y a t a t a n i a g a g u l a p a s i r p a d a a w a l t a h u n 1 9 9 9 , m a k a h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d i t e n t u k a n o l e h m e k a n i s m e p a s a r . B e r d a s a r k a n p e n e l i t i a n t e r d a h u l u , p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r r e l a t i f i n e l a s t i s ( L a m p i r a n 1 ) s e h i n g g a f l u k t u a s i p e n a w a r a n t e r h a d a p h a r g a a k a n m e n g h a s i l k a n v a r i a s i h a r g a y a n g c u k u p b e s a r . O l e h k a r e n a i t u t a r g e t p r o d u k s i m a u p u n i m p o r y a n g a k a n d i c a p a i p e r l u d i r u m u s k a n d e n g a n h a t i - h a t i . P e r k i r a a n p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d i m a s a m e n d a t a n g m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u a c u a n p e n t i n g d a l a m p e n e t a p a n t a r g e t p r o d u k s i m a u p u n i m p o r . K a j i a n i n i b e r t u j u a n u n t u k m e n g g a m b a r k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d a n p r o y e k s i n y a d i I n d o n e s i a .

2. M E T O D E P E N E L I T I A N

a. Jenis dan Sumber Data

D a t a y a n g d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s i s k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r o l e h s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a a d a l a h d a t a S u r v e i S o s i a l E k o n o m i N a s i o n a l ( S u s e n a s ) B P S t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 . W i l a y a h s u r v e i m e n c a k u p s e l u r u b

3 1 4


p r o p i n s i d i I n d o n e s i a , k e c u a l i o l e h T i m o r - t i m u r . S e d a n g k a n a n a l i s i s t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r s e k t o r i n d u s t r i m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n s e d a n g t a h u n 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 s e r t a T a b e l I n p u t -o u t p u t I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 , 1 9 9 0 d a n 1 9 9 5 .

b. Analisis Data

B e r d a s a r k a n p e r b a n d i n g a n h a s i l s t u d i - s t u d i p e r m i n t a a n p a n g a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a S u s e n a s d e n g a n t a h u n y a n g b e r b e d a ( L a m p i r a n 1 ) d i p e r o l e h i n d i k a s i b a h w a b e s a r a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k g u l a p a s i r c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n . I n d i k a s i i n i m e n g i s y a r a t k a n , b a h w a m e s k i p u n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a m e n i n g k a t , n a m u n d e n g a n s e m a k i n t i n g g i n y a p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t , l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a s e m a k i n m e n u r u n . M o d e l y a n g d i g u n a k a n s e l a y a k n y a m a m p u m e r e f l e k s i k a n p e n u r u n a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n s e j a l a n d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e n d a p a t a n .

A t a s d a s a r a l a s a n t e r s e b u t , m a k a m o d e l y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m e n d u g a p a r a m e t e r - p a r a m e t e r d a r i p e r m i n t a a n l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r o l e h r u m a h t a n g g a a d a l a h m o d e l y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n Food and Agriculture Organization ( F A O ) y a i t u m o d e l log-inverse-log. M o d e l t e r s e b u t d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

LnQgp = a + b Y " ' + c L n Y + dLnPgp + e . L n P p n + e j L i i P k + f i L n J A K + tiUi + UD2+

U ( 1 )

d i m a n a :

Q s p = T i n g k a t k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a

Y = T i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a

p gp

= H a r g a g u l a p a s i r

p gm

= H a r g a g u l a m e r a h

P . = H a r g a k o p i ( b u b u k , b i j i , i n s t a n )

J A K = J u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a

3 1 5


D i = P e u b a h b o n e k a p e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a , d i m a n a 1 u n t u k p e n d i d i k a n f o r m a l S e k o l a h D a s a r k e b a w a h d a n 0 u n t u k s e l a i n n y a

D2 = P e u b a h b o n e k a p e n d i d i k a r i s t r i , d i m a n a 1 u n t u k p e n d i d i k a n f o r m a l S e k o l a h D a s a r k e b a w a h d a n 0 u n t u k s e l a i n n y a

a , b , c , e , f = K o e f i s i e n - k o e f i s i e n d u g a a n

u = G a l a t a c a k

D a l a m p e n e l i t i a n i n i p e n d u g a a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m o d e l r e g r e s i t e r p i s a h d e n g a n M e t o d e Ordinary Least Square ( O L S ) .

D a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) d a p a t d i h i t u n g e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n , e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a s e n d i r i d a n e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a s i l a n g s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

E y = ( A Q / A Y ) * Y / Q = A L n Q / A L n Y = ( - b / Y + c )

Eqq = ( A Q / A P ) % / Q = A L n Q / A L n P , = d ;

E q i = ( A Q / A P , ) * P , / Q = A L n Q / A L n P , = e ,

E q i = ( A Q / - ' , P i ) * P i / Q = A T n Q / A - T n . P i = e i

d i m a n a :

E y = E l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r

Eqq = E l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r

E q i = E l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a s i l a n g k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r

c. Metode Proyeksi

T a h a p s e l a n j u t n y a d a l a m p e n e l i t i a n i n i a d a l a h m e l a k u k a n p r o y e k s i k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r n a s i o n a l . B e r d a s a r k a n p e n g g u n a a n n y a , p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d a p a t d i b e d a k a n m e n j a d i p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g d a n p e m i n t a a n u n t u k p e n g g u n a a n a n t a r a {derived demand), y a i t u s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u i n d u s t r i p e n g o i a h a n .

U n t u k m e l a k u k a n p r o y e k s i k o n s u m s i p e r k a p i t a d i g u n a k a n i n f o r m a s i : ( 1 ) d u g a a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k m a s i n g - m a s i n g -t a h u n ( 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 ) . ( 2 ) l a j u p e r u b a h a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n , d a n (3)

316


t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r t a h u n d a s a r (base year). I n f o r m a s i b u t i r ( 1 ) d a n ( 2 ) d i p e r o l e h d a r i h a s i l p e n d u g a a n p a r a m e t e r f u n g s i k o n s u m s i s e p e r t i t e l a h d i u r a i k a n d i a t a s . D e n g a n m e n g e t a h u i l a j u p e r u b a h a n b e s a r a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n d a p a t d i d u g a b e s a r a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n d i m a s a m e n d a t a n g . P r o y e k s i a n g k a e l a s t i s i t a s d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r u m u s g e o m e t r i s . C a r a y a n g s a m a d i l a k u k a n u n t u k m e m b u a t p r o y e k s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k .

P e r h i t u n g a n s e c a r a r i n g k a s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Proyeksi Konsumsi G u l a Push per K a p i t a

qdi t = qdio + { l E , y o + ( l + a , y ) ' ] d Y , * q d i o } - -

d i m a n a :

q ^ i = K o n s u m s i p e r k a p i t a , 1 i n d e k s k o m o d i t i , t i n d e k s t a h u n , 0

t a h u n d a s a r

E i y o = E l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n p a d a t a h u n d a s a r

a i y = P e r u b a h a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n

d Y , = P e r u b a h a n p e n d a p a t a n

Proyeksi J u m l a h Penduduk

P , = P„ ( 1 + r p ) '

d i m a n a :

P , = J u m l a h p e n d u d u k t a h u n k e - t

I U = J u m l a h p e n d u d u k p a d a t a h u n d a s a r

r p = L a j u p e r t a m b a h a n p e n d u d u k

L a j u p e r u b a h a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n ( a j d i h i t u n g d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n a n g k a d u g a a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n d u a t i t i k w a k t u ( 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 ) . L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e l a s t i s i t a s i n i s e l a n j u t n y a d i p e r g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m b u a t p r o y e k s i k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r .

D e n g a n d i k e t a h u i n y a h a s i l p r o y e k s i k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r o l e h r u m a h t a n g g a , m a k a d a p a t d i h i t u n g p r o y e k s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i . D a r i T a b e l I n p u t - o u t p u t 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 5 d a p a t d i h i t u n g r a s i o a n t a r a n i l a i t r a n s a k s i g u l a p a s i r a n t a r s e k t o r ( i n p u t a n t a r a ) d a n k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a d i g u n a k a n s e b a g a i d a s a r u n t u k m e l a k u k a n

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Henri Fitriadi dan isang Conarsyah

p r o y e k s i t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i . K o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i m e n g g u n a k a n r u m u s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

K o n s u m s i I n d u s t r i = ' ^ " ' ^ " m s i G u l a P a s i r R u m a h T a n g g a ^ R a s i o T r a n s a k s i I n d u s t r i ' R a s i o T r a n s a k s i R u m a h T a n g g a T e r h a d a p T r a n s a k s i T o t a l

T e r h a d a p T r a n s a k s i T o t a l

3. H A S I L D A N P E M B A H A S A N

3.1. Konsumsi Rumah Tangga

P e r k e m b a n g a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a o l e h r u m a h t a n g g a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 9 d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 1 . D a r i t a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r l i h a t b a h w a k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n d a n p e d e s a a n d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 6 c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t . L a j u p e n i n g k a t a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 9 7 - 1 9 9 6 c e n d e r u n g l e b i h t i n g g i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n l a j u p e n i n g k a t a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n . H a l i n i d i d u g a s e b a g a i a k i b a t t e r j a d i n y a p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t d a n p e r g e s e r a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n y a n g s e m a k i n m e n y u k a i g u l a p a s i r d a r i p a d a b a h a n s u b s t i t u s i n y a , t e r u t a m a g u l a m e r a h .

P e r g e s e r a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n y a n g s e m a k i n m e n y u k a i g u l a p a s i r d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 6 t e r c e r m i n d a r i t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g p e r k a p i t a g u l a p a s i r y a n g c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t s e d a n g k a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g p e r k a p i t a g u l a m e r a h c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n (Tabel 2).

Tabel 1 P e r k e m b a n g a n K o n s u m s i G u l a P a s i r S e c a r a L a n g s u n g per K a p i t a

m e n u r u t L o k a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , T a h u n 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 6 ( K g / T a h u n )

Tahun Pedesaan Perkotaan Gabungan

Tahun Konsumsi Perubahan Konsumsi Perubahan Konsumsi Perubahan

1987 7,03 9,26 7,62 1990 7,36 4,69 9,06 -2,16 7,88 3,41 1993 7,57 2,8 5 9,29 2,54 8,14 3,30 1996 8.47 11.89 9.41 1.29 8.80 8,11 1999 7,70 -9,09 9,03 -4,04 8,18 -7,05

S u m b e r : B a d a n P u s a t S t a t i s t i k

3 1 8


Tabel 2 P e r k e m b a n g a n K o n s u m s i G u l a M e r a h S e c a r a L a n g s u n g per K a p i t a ]

m e n u r u t L o k a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , T a h u n 1 9 9 7 - 1 9 9 6 ( K g / T i h u n )

Tahun Pedesaan Perkotaan Gabungan Tahun

Konsumsi Perubahan Konsumsi Perubahan Konsumsi Perubahan 1987 1,49 1,27 1,43 1990 1,65 10,74 1,30 2,36 1,54 7,69 1993 1.47 -10.91 1.34 3.08 1.43 -7.14 1996 1,21 -17,69 1,15 -14,18 1,19 -16,78 1999 1,05 -13,11 0,85 -25,96 0,98 -18,00

S u m b e r : B a d a n P u s a t S t a t i s t i k

Tabel 3 P e r k e m b a n g a n H a r g a R a l a - R a t a * G u l a P a s i r d a n G u l a M e r a h m e n u r u t

L o k a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , T a h u n 1 9 9 6 - 1 9 9 9 ( R p / K g ) j

Uraian 1996 1999 Uraian Desa Kota Gabungan Desa Kota Gabungan

a . Harga Gula Pasir 1.600 1.570 1. 590 3.700 3.590 3.650 b. Harga Gula Merah 1.650 1.740 1.690 3.480 3.540 3.510 Harga Relatif (a:b) 0,9697 0,9023 0,9464 1,0632 1,0141 1,0399

K e t e r a n g a n : * M e r u p a k a n h a r g a y a n g d i t e r i m a r e s p o n d e n p a d a s a a t s u r v e i d i l a k u k a n S u m b e r : B a d a n P u s a t S t a t i s t i k

D a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 9 6 - 1 9 9 9 , b a i k k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g p e r k a p i t a g u l a p a s i r m a u p u n g u l a m e r a h m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n . H a l i n i l e b i h d i s e b a b k a n o l e h t e r j a d i n y a p e n i n g k a t a n h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d a n g u l a m e r a h d a l a m p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t . P a d a T a b e l 3 t e r l i h a t b a h w a h a r g a g u l a p a s i r m e n i n g k a t l e b i h t a j a m d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n h a r g a g u l a m e r a h . H a l i n i t e r c e r m i n d a r i h a r g a r e l a t i f h a r g a g u l a p a s i r t e r h a d a p g u l a m e r a h y a n g p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d i b a w a h s a t u m e n j a d i l e b i h d a r i s a t u p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 9 . A r t i n y a , p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 9 h a r g a g u l a , p a s i r m e n j a d i r e l a t i f l e b i h m a h a l d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n h a r g a g u l a m e r a h . W a l a u p u n d e m i k i a n p e n u r u n a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g p e r k a p i t a g u l a m e r a h , b a i k d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n m a u p u n p e r k o t a a n r e l a t i f l e b i h t a j a m d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e n u r u n a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g p e r k a p i t a g u l a p a s i r ( T a b e l 1 d a n T a b e l 2). H a l i n i s e m a k i n m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n b a h w a p r e f e r e n s i p e n d u d u k t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r s e m a k i n b e s a r .

3 1 9


H a s i l p e n d u g a a n f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r u n t u k w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n , p e r k o t a a n , d a n g a b u n g a n w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n - p e r k o t a a n u n t u k m o d e l t e r p i l i h d i s a j i k a n p a d a Tabel 4. U n t u k m e n g e t a h u i l e b i h l a n j u t m e n g e n a i f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a o l e h r u m a h t a n g g a m a k a p e m b a b a s a n b e r i k u t d i u r a i k a n b e r d a s a r k a n p e u b a h - p e u b a h y a n g d i a n a l i s i s .

Pendapatan P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h p e n d a p a t a n ( Y ) d a n p e u b a h k e b a l i k a n p e n d a p a t a n ( Y " ) d a l a m f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n . K o m b i n a s i t a n d a p o s i t i f p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h p e n d a p a t a n ( Y ) d a n t a n d a n e g a t i f p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h k e b a l i k a n p e n d a p a t a n ( Y " ' ) s e b a g a i m a n a d i t u n j u k k a n d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 m e m i l i k i i m p l i k a s i , b a h w a j i k a t e r j a d i p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a d a n s e m a k i n t i n g g i g o l o n g a n p e n d a p a t a n , m a k a k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a j u g a b e r t a m b a h . H a l i n i d i d u g a s e b a g a i a k i b a t k o n t r i b u s i g u l a p a s i r d a l a m k o n s u m s i k a l o r i p e n d u d u k d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n m a s i h r e l a t i f l e b i h r e n d a h d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n (Tabel 1 ) s e h i n g g a k e t i k a t e r j a d i p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n , m a k a t e r j a d i p e r g e s e r a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n y a n g s e m a k i n m e n y u k a i g u l a p a s i r d a r i p a d a g u l a m e r a h .

S e m e n t a r a i t u u n t u k k a s u s d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a h i n g g a t a r a f a l i m a p e r s e n p e u b a h p e n d a p a t a n ( Y ) s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k t i d a k b e r p e n g a r u h n y a t a t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r . A r t i n y a d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e n d a p a t a n , m a k a j u m l a h k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a t i d a k a k a n b e r u b a h . N a m u n d e n g a n s e m a k i n t i n g g i n y a g o l o n g a n p e n d a p a t a n , m a k a k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a k a n s e m a k i n b e r t a m b a h b e s a r . H a l i n i d i t u n j u k k a n o l e h p e u b a h k e b a l i k a n p e n d a p a t a n ( Y " ) d a l a m f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n d a n b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f . U n t u k w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n I n d o n e s i a g u l a p a s i r m e m a n g s u d a h m e r u p a k a n s u m b e r u t a m a z a t p e m a n i s d a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a s u d a h t e r g o l o n g r e l a t i f f i n g g i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n (Tabel 1 ) .

320


Tabel 4 P a r a m e t e r D u g a a n Fungsi P e r m i n t a a n G u l a P a s a r M e n u r u t L o k a s i i j i

I n d o n e s i a , T a h u n 1996 d a n 1 9 9 9 u n t u k M o d e l Regresi T e r p i s a h

Peubah Bebas 1996 1999 Desa Kota Gabungan Desa Kota Gabungan

Intersep 5,23007"' 6,006162"' 5 ,907729" 4,27994"' 6,94814"' 6,066054"' Kebalikan Pendapatan Y-1 -4191,578"' -5431,829" -4423,307"' -6851,675"' -13947" -9975,488"' Pendapatan (Y) 0,072807"' 0,012109 0,012418 0,201656"' -0,022582 0,043248"' Harga Gula Pasir -0,616217"' -0 ,889417" -0,674873"' -0,702330"' -0 ,801396" -0,702694"' Harga Gula Merah 0,499867*' 0 ,299460" 0,403056"' 0 ,305048" 0 ,315229" 0 ,308165" Harga Kopi -0,018009"' 0,003890 -0,016859" -0 ,041783" -0,055258"' -0 ,052808" Jumlah Anggota Keluarga -0 ,264181" -0,28629" -0,294921"' -0 ,271657" -0 ,296437" -0 ,300216" Dummy Pendidikan Kepala Keluarga (01)

0,002557 0,014313'' -0,00199 0,017638"' 0,003865 0,001852

Dummy Pendidikan Istri (D2)

0 , 018898" -0,011640 -0,001721 0,012761"' -5,775505 0,000211

K e t e r a n g a n : a ) n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a = 1 % b ) n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a = 5 %

Tabel 5 D u g a a n E l a s t i s i t a s P e n d a p a t a n u n t u k G u l a P a s i r m e n u r u t L o k a s i d i I n d o n e s i a ,

T a h u n 1996 d a n 1 9 9 9

Uraian 1996 1999

Uraian Desa •Cota Gabungan Desa Kota Gabungan

Koefisien Y-1 (b) -4191,578 -5431,829 -4423,307 -6851,675 -13947 -9975,488 Koefisien Ln Y (c) 0,073 0,012 0,012 0,202 -0,023 0,043 Pendapataa^Kapita/Mtnggu (Y) 14339,11 26182,07 19103,63 29971,97 49442,42 38071,33 Elastisitas Pendapatan {-blA' + c) 0,365 0,220 0,244 0,430 0,260 0,305

E l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n , p e r k o t a a n d a n g a b u n g a n w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n - p e r k o t a a n s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a p o s i t i f , y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h t e r s e b u t m a s i h t e r m a s u k b a r a n g n o r m a l . A r t i n y a , a p a b i l a p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t d i w i l a y a h t e r s e b u t m e n i n g k a t , m a k a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n g u l a p a s i r j u g a a k a n m e n i n g k a t .

321

Henri Fitriadi dan Isang Gonarsyah

S e p e r t i t e r l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 5 e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n r e l a t i f l e b i h t i n g g i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n b a i k u n t u k t a h u n 1 9 9 6 m a u p u n u n t u k t a h u n 1 9 9 9 . D i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n s e c a r a t r a d i s i o n a l k o n s u m s i z a t p e m a m i s n o n g u l a p a s i r s e p e r t i g u l a m e r a h , m a s i h r e l a t i f d o m i n a n d i b a n d i n g k a n d i w i l a y a h p e k o t a a n ( T a b e l 2) s e h i n g g a d e n g a n a d a n y a p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t p e r d e s a a n t e r j a d i l a h p e r u b a h a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n d a r i b a h a n p e m a n i s n o n g u l a p a s i r k e g u l a p a s i r .

E l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n t a h u n 1 9 9 6 l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i p a d a e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n t a h u n 1 9 9 9 ( T a b e l 5 ) . H a l i n i b e r a r t i b a h w a p r e f e r e s i m a s y a r a k a t t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i b a h a n p e m a n i s m a s i h r e l a t i f t i n g g i t e r u t a m a d i w i l a y a h p e r d e s a a n . H a l i n i t e r l i h a t d a r i p e n i n g k a t a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n y a n g r e l a t i f l e b i h t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n d i w i l l a y a h p e r k o t a a n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 9 .

Harga Gula Pasir

P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d a l a m f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r s e l u r u h n y a b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n . S e s u a i d e n g a n h a r a p a n t e o r i , p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h h a r g a g u l a p a s i r s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f . I n i b e r a r t i j i k a h a r g a g u l a p a s i r m e n i n g k a t m a k a , k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a k a n t u r u n d a n s e b a l i k n y a j i k a h a r g a g u l a p a s i r t u r u n m a k a k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a k a n m e n i n g k a t .

N i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r s e l u r u h n y a d i b a w a h s a t u a r t i n y a g u l a p a s i r t e r m a s u k s e b a g a i i n e l a s t i s ( T a b e l 4). J i k a i i i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d i b a n d i n g k a n a n t a r a w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n d e n g a n w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 , m a k a a k a n t e r l i h a t b a h w a e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n l e b i h r e n d a h d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n . A r t i n y a j i k a h a r g a g u l a p a s i r m e n i n g k a t s a t u p e r s e n m a k a , j u m l a h k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i k o r b a n k a n o l e h p e n d u d u k p e r k o t a a n l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n j u m l a h k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i k o r b a n k a n o l e h p e n d u d u k p e d e s a a n . H a l i n i s e m a k i n m e m p e r k u a t a l a s a n b a h w a g u l a p a s i r m e n j a d i s e m a k i n p e n t i n g d a l a m p a k e t k o n s u m s i b a h a n p e m a n i s m a s y a r a k a t p e d e s a a n .

3 2 2

Trend dan Prosfiek Konsumsi Gula di Indonesia

N a m u n a p a b i l a e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a g u l a p a s i r d i b a n d i n g k a n d i a n t a r a k e d u a t i t i k w a k t u , t e r n y a t a t e r l i h a t b a h w a u n t u k w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n , n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s h a r g a s e d i k i t m e n i n g k a t d a n k e a d a a n s e b a l i k n y a t e r j a d i d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n (Tabel 4). M e n u r u t S a w i t et al. (1999) p a n g s a p e n g e l u a r a n g u l a p a s i r d a l a m t o t a l p e n g e l u a r a n m a k a n a n r u m a h t a n g g a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n r e l a t i f l e b i h t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n p a d a r u m a h t a n g g a d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n . S e h i n g g a k e n a i k a n h a r g a g u l a p a s i r ( k b u s u s n y a y a n g t e r j a d i d a l a m p e r i o d e 1996-1999) a k a n l e b i h b e r d a m p a k n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p a n g g a r a n b e l a n j a r u m a h t a n g g a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n k b u s u s n y a y a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n r e n d a h .

Harga Gula Merah

P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n h a r g a g u l a m e r a h u n t u k f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a p o s i t i f d a n b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n . T a n d a p o s i t i f d a r i p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n h a r g a g u l a m e r a h m e m p u n y a i a r t i b a h w a j i k a h a r g a g u l a m e r a h n a i k , s e m e n n t a r a f a k t o r -f a k t o r l a i n n y a d i a n g g a p k o n s t a n a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n p e m i n t a a n a t a s g u l a m e r a h m e n u r u n d a n p a d a g i l i r a n y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a g u l a p a s i r d a n g u l a m e r a h b e r s i f a t s u b s t i t u s i .

W a l a u p u n h u b u n g a n s u b s t i t u s i a n t a r a g u l a p a s i r d a n g u l a m e r a h b e r s i f a t t i m b a l b a l i k , n a m u n u n t u k k o n d i s i s e k a r a n g d i m a n a g u l a p a s i r t e l a h m e n j a d i s u m b e r b a h a n p e m a n i s u t a m a d a l a m p o l a k o n s u m s i m a s y a r a k a t , m a k a a k a n r e l a t i f l e b i h m u d a h b a g i g u l a p a s i r u n t u k m e n g g a n t i k a n g u l a m e r a h d i b a n d i n g k a n g u l a m e r a h u n t u k m e n g g a n t i k a n g u l a p a s i r . K o n d i s i d e m i k i a n s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g n a m p a k d a r i b u k t i b a h w a a p a b i l a t e r j a d i k e t i d a k c u k u p a n p e r s e d i a a n g u l a p a s i r d i d a l a m n e g e r i , m a k a t e r p a k s a h a r u s d i l a k u k a n i m p o r g u l a p a s i r .

D a r i Tabel 4 t e r l i h a t b a h w a p a d a t a h u n 1996 k e m a m p u a n s u b s t i t u s i g u l a m e r a h t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r l e b i h t i n g g i d i w i l a v a h p e d e s a a n , d a r i p a d a d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n , y a n g t e r c e r m i n d a r i n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s s i l a n g g u l a m e r a h t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r y a n g r e l a t i f l e b i h t i n g g i d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n d a r i p a d a d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n . H a l i n i b e k a i t a n d e n g a n d u g a a n b a h w a i n d u s t r i g u l a m e r a h m e r u p a k a n i n d u s t r i r u m a h t a n g g a y a n g b e r s i f a t t r a d i s i o n a l y a n g b a n y a k t e r d a p a t d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n m e n g i n g a t k e t e r s e d i a a n b a h a n b a k u n y a y a n g t e r b a t a s p a d a w i l a y a h

3 2 3

Henri Filriadi dan Isang Conarsyah

t e r s e b u t ( W i r i o a t m o d j o , 1 9 8 4 ) . H a l i n i b e r i m p l i k a s i p a d a k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n p o l a k o n s u m s i g u l a m e r a h d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n y a n g r e l a t i f l e b i h d o m i n a n d i b a n d i n g k a n d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n ( T a b e l 2).

A p a b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s s i l a n g g u l a m e r a h t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r u n t u k g a b u n g a n w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n p e r k o t a a n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 t e r l i h a t b a h w a n i l a i n y a c e n d e r u n g s e m a k i n k e c i l y a n g m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n k e m a m p u a n g u l a m e r a h u n t u k m e n g g a n t i k a n g u l a p a s i r s e m a k i n k e c i l . j i k a h a r g a g u l a m e r a h t u r u n s a t u p e r s e n , ceteris paribus, m a k a j u m l a h k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a t u r u n s e b e s a r 0 , 4 0 3 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n h a n y a t u r u n s e b e s a r 0 , 3 0 8 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 9 . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n s i f a t k i m i a w i d a n f i s i k a g u l a m e r a h y a n g k h a s s e h i n g g a d i p e r k i r a k a n d a y a s u b s t i t u s i g u l a m e r a h t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r t i d a k t e r l a l u b e s a r .

Harga Kopi K e c u a l i u n t u k k a s u s w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n t a h u n 1 9 9 6 , p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h h a r g a k o p i d a l a m f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n , p e r k o t a a n d a n g a b u n g a n w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n p e r k o t a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n . S e s u a i d e n g a n h a r a p a n t e o r i p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h h a r g a k o p i s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f . I n i b e r a r t i b a h w a j i k a h a r g a k o p i m e n i n g k a t , m a k a p e m i n t a a n a k a n k o p i m e n u r u n d a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a k a n t u r u n d a n s e b a l i k n y a j i k a h a r g a k o p i t u r u n m a k a p e m i n t a a n a k a n k o p i n a i k d a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a k a n m e n i n g k a t . O l e h k a r e n a i t u d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a g u l a p a s i r d a n k o p i b e r s i f a t k o m p l e m e n t e r .

Jumlah Anggota Keluarga P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a u n t u k f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f d a n b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a s a t u p e r s e n . T a n d a n e g a t i f d a r i p a r a m e t e r d u g a a n j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a m e m p u n y a i a r t i b a h w a j i k a j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a b e r t a m b a h , s e m e n t a r a f a k t o r - f a k t o r l a i n n y a d i a n g g a p k o n s t a n a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a m e n u r u n . B e r t a m b a h n y a j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a p a d a k e l o m p o k r u m a h t a n g g a m e n y e b a b k a n a n g g a r a n r u m a h t a n g g a u n t u k g u l a t e r p a k s a d i k u r a n g i

3 2 4


g u n a m e n u t u p i a n g g a r a n u n t u k k e b u t u h a n p o k o k l a i n n y a y a n g l e b i h p e n t i n g m i s a l n y a b e r a s .

D a r i Tabel 4 t e r l i h a t b a h w a n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s u k u r a n k e l u a r g a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i p a d a d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n . H a l i n i b e r a r t i b a h w a j i k a j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a b e r t a m b a h , s e m e n t a r a f a k t o r -f a k t o r l a i n n y a d i a n g g a p k o n s t a n , m a k a k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a k a n m e n u r u n r e l a t i f l e b i h t a j a m d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n d a r i p a d a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n . H a l i n i s e m a k i n m e m b u k t i k a n b a h w a g u l a p a s i r m e n j a d i s e m a k i n p e n t i n g d a l a m p a k e t k o n s u m s i m a s y a r a k a t p e d e s a a n .

Pendidikan P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h b o n e k a p e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i u n t u k f u n g s i p e m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 u m u m n y a b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a p a d a t a r a f a 1 - 5 p e r s e n ( k e c u a l i u n t u k p e u b a h b o n e k a p e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 ) d e n g a n t a n d a y a n g p o s i t i f . H a l i n i b e r a r t i t e r d a p a t p e r b e d a a n y a n g n y a t a d a l a m h a l k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a n t a r a k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n S D k e b a w a h d e n g a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n s e l a i n n y a . K o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a c e n d e r u n g l e b i h t i n g g i u n t u k k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n S D k e b a w a h .

R a s a m a n i s d a r i g u l a s e b e l u m n y a l e b i h b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n k e n i k m a t a n , d a n t i d a k b a n y a k b e r h u b u n g a n d e n g a n g i z i . S e h i n g g a d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a p e r b e d a a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a n t a r a k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n S D k e b a w a h d e n g a n y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n s e l a i n n y a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n l e b i h b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n a d a n y a p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n g a y a b i d u p m a s y a r a k a t p e d e s a a n ( k b u s u s n y a m e r e k a y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n t i n g g i ) y a n g s e m a k i n m o d e m , s e r b a c e p a t d a n p r a k t i s s e h i n g g a p o l a k o n s u m s i p a n g a n j u g a s e m a k i n m e n g a r a h p a d a k o m o d i t a s p a n g a n j a d i .

H u b u n g a n a n t a r a p e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a d e n g a n k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a m e m p u n y a i p o l a y a n g s a m a d e n g a n p e n d i d i k a n i s t r i . P e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a t i d a k s e l a l u b e r k a i t a n l a n g s u n g d e n g a n k o n s u m s i m a k a n a n , k a r e n a p a d a u m u n m y a d a l a m

3 2 5

Henr i rilrladi dan Isang Gonarsyah

r u m a h t a n g g a p a r a i s t r i y a n g m e n e n t u k a n u r u s a n k e r u m a h t a n g g a a n s e p e r t i m e r e n c a n a k a n d a n m e n y a j i k a n k o n s u m s i b a g i p a r a a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a n y a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u w a j a r j i k a p o l a h u b u n g a n v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t u n t u k k e p a l a k e l u a r g a s a m a d e n g a n i s t r i .

P a r a m e t e r d u g a a n p e u b a h b o n e k a p e n d i d i k a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i d i w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 9 t i d a k b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n y a t a . H a l i n i b e r a r t i t i d a k a d a p e r b e d a a n y a n g n y a t a d a l a m h a l k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a a n t a r a k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n S D k e b a w a h d e n g a n k e p a l a k e l u a r g a m a u p u n i s t r i y a n g b e r p e n d i d i k a n s e l a i n n y a .

3.2. Konsumsi Industri P e r k e m b a n g a n y a n g c e p a t d a l a m s e k t o r i n d u s t r i t e l a h m e m a c u p e r t u m b u h a n k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d a n b a h a n p e m a n i s l a i n n y a . M e s k i p u n s e c a r a a g r e g a t k o n s u m s i o u t p u t y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h s e k t o r i n d u s t r i g u l a ( i n d u s t r i g u l a p a s i r , i n d u s t r i g u l a m e r a h , i n d u s t r i g u l a l a i n n y a d a n i n d u s t r i p e n g o i a h a n g u l a l a i n n y a s e l a i n s i r o p ) m a s i h d i d o m i n a s i o l e h k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g s e k t c ^ r r u m a h t a n g g a , a k a n t e t a p i p a n g s a n i l a i p e m i n t a a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a t e r h a d a p t o t a l n i l a i t r a n s a k s i p e m i n t a a n g u l a t e r u s m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n y a i t u d a r i 7 5 , 7 8 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 m e n j a d i 5 2 , 8 5 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 5 . D i l a i n p i h a k p a n g s a n i l a i p e m i n t a a n a n t a r a {intermediate demand) t e r h a d a p g u l a t e l a h m e n i n g k a t d a r i 2 0 , 6 9 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 m e n j a d i 4 1 , 4 0 p e r s e n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 5 ( T a b e l 6 ) . H a l i n i m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n b a h w a s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n g a y a h i d u p m a s y a r a k a t m o d e m , m a k a p o l a k o n s u m s i p a n g a n s e m a k i n m e n g a r a h p a d a k o m o d i t a s p a n g a n j a d i h a s i l i n d u s t r i p e n g o i a h a n .

326

Trend dan Prospek Konsumsi Gula dl Indonesia

Tabel 6 P e r k e m b a n g a n A l o k a s i P e n y e d i a a n O u t p u t

S e k t o r I n d u s t r i G u l a T a h u n 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 5 ( J u t a R u p i a h )

Uraian 198,5 1990 1995 A. Permintaan Antara 1. Peternakan & Hasil-liasilnya 206 514

- (0,02) (0,004) 2. Parikanan 131 367 -

(0,01) (0,01) 3. Industri Makanan, Minuman & lembakau 101.646 454.532 3.170.203

(10,03) (17,99) (27,312) 4. Industri Lainnya 3.982 9.708 53.139

(0,39) (0,38) (0,458) 5. Restoran & Hotel 97.530 291.235 1.498.391

(9,63) (11,53) (12,909) (). Pengangkutan & Komunikasi 2.005 3.764 12.477

(0,20) (0,15) (0,107) 7. Jasa-jasa 4.320 21.212 70.519

(0,43) (0.84) (0,608) Jumlah Permintaan Antara (A) 209.614 781.024 1.805.213

(20,69) (30,92) (41,40) B. Permintaan Akhir 1. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah langga 767.659 1661254 6.134.712

(75,78) (65,77) (52.852) 2. Perubahan Stok 10.586 21,052 588.433

(1,05 ) (0,83) (5,069) 3. Ekspor Barang Dagangan 25.137 62.713 78.968

(2,48) (2,48) (0,680) Jumlah Permintaan Akhir (B) 803.182 1.745.019 6.802.113

(79,31) (69,08) (58,60) Jumlah Permintaan (A+B) 1.012.996 2.526.043 11.607.355

K e t e r a n g a n : { ) p a n g s a t e r h a d a p j u m l a h p e r m i n t a a n S u m b e r : T a b e l I / O 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 5 , B P S

D a r i Tabel 6 t e r l i h a t b a h w a j e n i s i n d u s t r i y a n g p a l i n g b a n y a k m e n g k o n s u m s i g u l a ( g u l a p a s i r d a n b a h a n p e m a n i s l a i n n y a ) a d a l a h i n d u s t r i p e n g o i a h a n m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u . G u l a m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u i n p u t p e n t i n g d a l a m i n d u s t r i i n i k a r e n a s e s u a i f u n g s i n y a , p e r a n a n u t a m a g u l a a d a l a h s e b a g a i b a h a n p e m a n i s , b a h a n p e n g g a w e t d a n p e m b e r i c i t a r a s a y a n g k h a s . A t a s d a s a r i n i m a k a , k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i y a n g d i a n a l i s i s t e r b a t a s p a d a k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i

3 2 7

Henri Fitriadi dan Isang Gonarsyah

m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u y a n g m e m a n g m e r u p a k a n k o n s u m e n

t e r b e s a r d a r i b e r b a g a i b a h a n p e m a n i s . D a r i k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t

y a n g d i a n a l i s i s d i b a t a s i p a d a i n d u s t r i b e r s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g , y a i t u

i n d u s t r i d e n g a n 2 0 o r a n g a t a u l e b i h t e n a g a k e r j a . H a l i n i m e n g i n g a t

i n d u s t r i k e c i l ( 5 - 1 0 o r a n g t e n a g a k e r j a ) d a n i n d u s t r i r u m a h t a n g g a ( 1 - 4

o r a n g t e n a g a k e r j a ) m e m p u n y a i p e r m o d a l a n y a n g s a n g a t t e r b a t a s ,

j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n s a n g a t b a n y a k , s e b a r a n s p a s i a l n y a s a n g a t l u a s ,

s e b a g i a n b e s a r t i d a k t e r d a f t a r d a n p a d a u m u m n y a p e r u s a h a a n b e l u m

t e r a d m i n i s t r a s i k a n d e n g a n b a i k , s e h i n g g a p e m a h a m a n n y a m e m b u t u h

k a n a n a l i s i s y a n g l e b i h m e n d a l a m .

Gambar 1 Perkembangan Konsumsi Gula Pasir oleh Industri Makanan,

Minuman dan Tembakau Skala Besar dan Sedang Tahun 1980-1997

4S().U0U -

400.000 -

.4S0.000 -

300.000 -

230.000 -

200.000 -

130.000 -

100.000 -

30.000 -

U.OOO = \ 1 \ \ 1 \ \ 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1 \ \

T a h u n

— G u l a P a s i r

S u m b e r : S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e s a r d a n s e d a n g 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 , B P S

D a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 , s e c a r a a g r e g a t p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h

i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i m u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g

c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t ( G a m b a r 1). P e n i n g k a t a n k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r

l e b i h b a n y a k d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h p e n i n g k a t a n j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g

b e r a d a p a d a i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t . S e b a g a i g a m b a r a n , j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n

y a n g m e n g k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d a l a m i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i m u m a n d a n

t e r n b a k a u t e l a h m e n i n g k a t d a r i 7 4 3 u n i t p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 m e n j a d i 4 0 2 3 u n i t p a d a

t a h u n 1 9 9 7 a t a u m e n i n g k a t 4 4 1 , 4 5 p e r s e n d a l a m k u r u n w a k t u t e r s e b u t ( T a b e l 7 ) .

328

Trend dan Prospek Konsumsi Gula dl Indonesia

D a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 , d i a n t a r a j e n i s i n d u s t r i d a l a m k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g y a n g p a l i n g d o m i n a n m e n g g u n a k a n g u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u a d a l a h i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n . D o m i n a n n y a p e n g g u n a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i i n i l e b i h b a n y a k d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h b e s a r n y a j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e r a d a d i d a l a m k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n k a r e n a a p a b i l a d i l i h a t d a r i s e g i d a y a s e r a p g u l a p a s i r p e r u n i t u s a h a , i n d u s t r i m i n u m a n l a b y a n g p a l i n g d o m i n a n d a l a m m e n y e r a p g u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u ( T a b e l 7).

P e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n d a l a m i n d u s t r i t e m b a k a u h a n y a m e n y e r a p g u l a p a s i r d a l a m j u m l a h y a n g r e l a t i f k e c i l a p a b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e r a d a d i d a l a m i n d u s t r i m i n u m a n d a n m a k a n a n , y a i t u d i b a w a h 0 , 3 t o n p e r u n i t u s a h a . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n g u l a p a s i r b u k a n l a b m e r u p a k a n b a h a n b a k u u t a m a d a l a m i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t , k a r e n a h a n y a b e r p e r a n s e b a g a i p e m b e r i c i t a r a s a .

G a m b a r 2 P e r k e m b a n g a n D a y a S e r a p G u l a P a s i r o l e h I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , M i n u m a n d a n

T e m b a k a u S k a l a B e s a r d a n Sedang S e c a r a A g r e g a t T a h u n 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7

Tahim

S u m b e r : S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i B e a s r d a n S e d a n g 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 , B P S

329

oj Henri Fitriadi dan Isang Gonarsyah UJ — — o

T a b e l 7 P e r k e m b a n g a n K o n s u m s i Gula P a s i r o l e h I n d u s t r i M a k a n a n , M i n i u m a n d a n Tembakau S k a l a B e s a r d a r i Tahun 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 7

Tahun

Industri Makanan Industri Minuman Industri Tembakau Total

Tahun Gula Pasir (Ton)

jumlah Perusahaan n

Daya Serap (Ton)

Gula Pasir (Ton)

Jumlah Perusahaan n

Daya Serap (Ton)

Gula Pasir (Ton)

Jumlah Perusahaan n

Daya Serap (Ton)

Gula Pasir (Ton)

Jumlah Perusahaan n

Daya Serap (Ton)

1980 70683,84 643 109,93 14914.00 100 149,14 85597,84 743 115,21 1981 462114,00 831 55,61 14073,00 94 149,71 60287,00 925 65,18 1982 67626,00 859 78,73 15713,00 99 158,72 83339,00 958 86.99 1983 59699,00 856 69.74 16366,00 104 157,37 76065,00 960 79,23 1984 67563,00 927 72,88 20003,00 106 188,71 4 366 0,01 87570,00 1399 62,59 1985 71609,00 1773 110,39 28202,00 131 215,28 10 870 0,01 99821,00 2774 35,98 1986 79865,00 1821 43 ,86 30532,00 132 231,30 26 814 0,03 110423,00 2767 39,91 1987 93697,00 1656 56 ,58 35512,00 136 261,12 101 795 0,13 129310,00 2587 49,98 1988 105044,00 1466 71,65 38231,00 169 226,22 160 936 0,17 143435,00 2571 55,79 1989 11 7459,73 1768 66,44 46328,34 162 285,98 122,51 878 0,14 163910,58 2808 58,37 1990 118354,00 1665 71,08 45104,23 143 315,41 125,31 810 0,15 163583,54 2618 62,48 1991 87093,06 1988 43.81 45081,00 144 313,06 161,85 905 0,18 132335,91 3037 43,57 1992 253195,52 1918 13201 57476,56 180 319,31 40,99 721 0,06 310713,07 2819 110,22 1993 187576,12 2332 80,44 60068,24 204 294,45 90,83 816 0,11 247735,20 3352 73,91 1994 222275,80 2482 39,56 74807,15 215 347,94 89,11 484 0,18 297172,07 3181 93,42 1995 241452,37 2634 91 ,67 68135,19 249 273,64 109,36 748 0,15 309696,92 3631 85,29 1996 305825,95 2880 105,05 67830,92 262 259,78 144,10 685 0,22 373850,97 3827 97,69 1997 370199,53 3126 118,43 67626,64 275 245,92 1 78,85 622 0,29 438005,01 4023 108,88 Keterangan: - tidak tersedia data atau sangat kecil mendekati nol Daya serap adalah hasil bagi antara jumlah konsumsi gula pasir dengan jumlah perusahaan yang mengkonsumsi gula pasir Sumber: Statistik Industri Besar, dan Sedang 1980-1997, BPS


P e r k e m b a n g a n d a y a s e r a p g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g s e c a r a a g r e g a t t a h u n 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 7 d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a G a m b a r 2. D a r i g a m b a r t e r s e b u t t e r l i h a t , b a h w a d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5 k e c e n d e r u n g a n p e r u s a h a a n d a l a m m e n g k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r s e m a k i n m e n u r u n k e m u d i a n m e n i n g k a t d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 7 . P e n u r u n a n d a y a s e r a p g u l a p a s i r o l e h p e r u s a h a a n d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5 d i d u g a d i s e b a b k a n o l e h b e b e r a p a k e m u n g k i n a n y a i t u ( 1 ) p e r u s a h a a n m a s i h m e m i l i k i s t o k g u l a p a s i r s e h i n g g a m e n g u r a n g i p e r m i n t a a n n y a a k a n g u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u , (2) j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e r t a m b a h d a l a m p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t j a u h l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n t a m b a h a n p e r m i n t a a n a k a n g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i m i n t a o e l e h p e r u s a h a a n t e r s e b u t s e c a r a a g r e g a t , s e b a g a i a k i b a t p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b a r u b e r d i r i p a d a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t m a s i h b e r o p e r a s i d a l a m s k a l a u s a h a y a n g k e c i l , s e h i n g g a j u m l a h p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b a r u b e r d i r i t e r s e b u t j u g a m a s i h r e l a t i f k e c i l d a n a t a u ( 3 ) h a d i r n y a b a h a n p e m a n i s n o n g u l a p a s i r s e b a g a i b a h a n s u b s t i t u s i g u l a p a s i r .

Gambar 3 P e r k e m b a n g a n D a y a S e r a p B a h a n P e m a n i s S e l a i n G u l a P a s i r o l e h I n d u s t r i

M a k a n a n , M i n u m a n d a n T e m b a k a u S k a l a d a n Sedang T a h u n 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 9 7

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m i \ m 1985 1987 1989 199) 1993 1995 1997

Sumber: Statistik Industri Besar dan Sedang 1981 -1997, BPS

3 3 1


H a d i r n y a b a h a n p e m a n i s s e l a i n g u l a p a s i r d i d u g a m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p m e n u r u n n y a d a y a s e r a p g u l a p a s i r o l e h p e r u s a h a a n d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5 . S e p e r t i t e r l i h a t p a d a G a m b a r 3 d a y a s e r a p b a h a n p e m a n i s s e a l a m i g u l a p a s i r o l e h p e r u s a h a a n s e c a r a u m u m m e n g a l a m i s e d i k i t p e n i n g k a t a n d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a . B e b e r a p a b a h a n p e m a n i s s e p e r t i m a l t o s a , g u l a t e p u n g , g u l a c a i r d a n ( s o d i u m ) s i k l a m a t m u l a i d i g u n a k a n d a l a m p e r i o d e . 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5 s e h i n g g a s e c a r a a g r e g a t d a y a s e r a p b a h a n p e m a n i s o l e h p e r u s a h a a n d i d a l a m k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g p u n m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n .

J i k a G a m b a r 2 d a n 3 d i a n a l i s i s l e b i h l a n j u t t e r l i h a t b a h w a d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 7 t e r j a d i p e n i n g k a t a n d a y a s e r a p b a h a n p e n m a n i s b a i k g u l a p a s i r m a u p u n b a h a n p e m a n i s n o n g u l a p a s i r . P e n i n g k a t a n d a y a s e r a p b a h a n p e m a n i s t e r s e b u t d i d u g a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h a d a n y a p e n i n g k a t a n s k a l a u s a h a p e r u s a h a a n p a d a m a s i n g - m a s i n g j e n i s i n d u s t r i d a r i k e l o m p o k i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u s k a l a b e s a r d a n s e d a n g . D e n g a n a s u m s i b a h w a k o m p o s i s i b a h a n p e m a n i s d i d a l a m t i a p p r o d u k y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h t i a p u n i t p e r u s a h a a n a d a l a h t e t a p , i n a k a p e n i n g k a t a n p e r m i n t a a n b a h a n p e m a n i s o l e h t i a p u n i t p e r u s a h a a n m e n g i n d i k a s i k a n a d a n y a p e n i n g k a t a n k u a n t i t a s p r o d u k y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h t i a p u n i t p e r u s a h a a n t e r s e b u t .

P e r k e m b a n g a n y a n g t e r j a d i d a l a m k e l o m p o K i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n , m i n u m a n d a n t e m b a k a u i n i t i d a k s a j a m e n y a n g k u t , p e n i n g k a t a n k u a n t i t a s p r o d u k s i t e t a p i j u g a m e n y a n g k u t m a k i n b e r a g a m n y a p r o d u k y a n g d i h a s i l k a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g p e r u s a h a a n . H a l i n i b e r i m p l i k a s i p a d a s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n b a h a n b a k u p e m a n i s b a i k g u l a p a s i r m a u p u n b a h a n p e m a n i s n o n g u l a p a s i r

3.3. Proyeksi Kebutuhan Gula Pasir di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2010 A n a l i s i s p r o y e k s i d a l a m p e n e l i t i a n i n i s e k e d a r m e m p e r l i h a t k a n a p a y a n g a k a n t e r j a d i j i k a s e r a n g k a i a n a s u m s i t e r p e n u h i . D a l a m m e m p r o y e k s i k a n k e b u t u h a n g u l a p a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n p e n d e k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n , k a r e n a d i h i t u n g b e r d a s a r k a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n . B e r d a s a r k a n p e n d a p a t a n t e r h a d a p e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n d i p e r o l e h i n f o r m a s i b a h w a n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k g a b u n g a n w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n p e r k o t a a n a d a l a h 0 , 2 4 4 p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 6 d a n 0 , 3 0 5 p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 9 a t a u b e r u b a h d e n g a n l a j u ( a , y ) 0 , 0 7 7 6 p e r t a h u n .

3 3 2


S e l a i n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k m e m b u a t p r o y e k s i k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r j u g a d i b u t u h k a n d a t a j u m l a h p e n d u d u k , l a j u t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n s e r t a t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a t a h u n d a s a r ( 1 9 9 9 ) . D a t a j u m l a h p e n d u d u k d i p e r o l e h d a r i p u b l i k a s i B P S , s e d a n g k a n t i n g k a t k o n s u m s i l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a t a h u n d a s a r m e r u p a k a n h a s i l a n a l i s i s s e p e r t i y a n g t e l a h d i s a j i k a n p a d a T a b e l 1 .

S e m e n t a r a i t u a s u m s i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n d a l a m p r o y e k s i i n i a d a 4 s k e n a r i o y a i t u 4 , 5 , 6 . , d a n 7 p e r s e n . D e w a n G u b e r n u r B a n k I n d o n e s i a m e m p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a p e r e k o n o m i a n n a s i o n a l p a d a t a h u n 2 0 0 0 a k a n t u m b u h s e k i t a r 3 - 4 p e r s e n L B e r d a s a r k a n d a t a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 1 9 9 3 -1 9 9 7 ( s e b e l u m k r i s i s e k o n o m i b e r l a n g s u n g ) y a n g d i k e l u a r k a n B P S p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a t u m b u h a n t a r a 5 , 7 - 6 , 5 p e r s e n p e r t a h u n . P r o y e k s i p e r t u m b u h a n d e n g a n t i g a s k e n a r i o ( 5 , 6 , d a n 7 p e r s e n ) j u g a p e r n a h d i l a k u k a n A n a n t a s e b a g a i m a n a d i k u t i p A n w a r ( 1 9 9 6 ) d a l a m m e m p r o y e k s i k a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 2 0 .

D i s a m p i n g u n t u k k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a , g u l a p a s i r j u g a d i p e r g u n a k a n s e b a g a i b a h a n b a k u u n t u k i n d u s t r i p e n g o i a h a n . D a r i T a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a h u n 1 9 9 5 , n i l a i t r a n s a k s i g u l a p a s i r u n t u k i n p u t a n t a r a , p e r m i n t a a n r u m a h t a n g g a , d a n p e r m i n t a a n a k h i r m a s i n g - m a s i n g s e b e s a r R p 4 . 8 0 5 m i l y a r , R p 6 . 1 3 3 4 m i l y a r d a n R p 6 . 8 0 2 m i l y a r , s e d a n g k a n t o t a l n i l a i t r a n s a k s i p e r m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r s e b e s a r R p . 1 1 . 6 0 7 m i l y a r . D a r i a n g k a - a n g k a t r a n s a k s i i n i d a p a t d i h i t u n g r a s i o t r a n s a k s i g u l a p a s i r u n t u k i n p u t a n t a r a d a n k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a m a s i n g - m a s i n g s e b e s a r 4 1 , 4 0 p e r s e n d a n 5 2 , 8 5 p e r s e n . D e n g a n d i k e t a h u i n y a k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r r u m a h t a n g g a p a d a t a h u n d a s a r m a k a d a p a t d i h i t u n g j u m l a h p e m i n t a a n g u l a p a s i r o l e h i n d u s t r i .

H a s i l p r o y e k s i k e b u t u h a n g u l a p a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 u n t u k s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a , s e k t o r i n d u s t r i d a n g a b u n g a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a d a n i n d u s t r i d i s a j i k a n p a d a T a b e l 8 . D a r i t a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r l i h a t b a h w a j u m l a h g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i b u t u h k a n p e r t a h u n d a l a m p e r i o d e 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 b e r a d a d i a t a s a n g k a 3 j u t a t o n p e r t a h u n . S e m a k i n t i n g g i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , m a k a j u m l a h g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i b u t u h k a n j u g a s e m a k i n b e s a r .

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3 3 3

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4. K E S I M P U L A N

G u l a p a s i r m a s i h m e r u p a k a n s u m b e r b a h a n p e m a n i s d o m i n a n b a i k u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k o n s u m s i r u m a h t a n g g a m a u p u n u n t u k b a h a n b a k u i n d u s t r i m a k a n a n d a n m i n u m a n . B a h k a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t , t e r u t a m a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n .

S e c a r a s t a t i s t i k t i n g k a t p e r m i n t a a n ( k o n s u m s i ) l a n g s u n g g u l a p a s i r p e r k a p i t a u n t u k w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n u m u m n y a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h p e u b a h k e b a l i k a n p e n d a p a t a n , t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n , h a r g a g u l a p a s i r , h a r g a g u l a m e r a h , h a r g a k o p i , j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a d a n p e n d i d i k a n i s t r i . S e d a n g k a n u n t u k w i l a y a h p e r k o t a a n s e c a r a u m u m d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h p e u b a h k e b a l i k a n p e n d a p a t a n , h a r g a g u l a p a s i r , h a r g a g u l a m e r a h , h a r g a k o p i d a n j u m l a h a n g g o t a k e l u a r g a .

N i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n a g r e g a t b e r t a n d a p o s i t i f , y a n g b e r a r t i b a h w a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n g u l a p a s i r a k a n m e n i n g k a t s e j a l a n d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e n d a p a t a n . S e h i n g g a u s a h a p e m e r i n t a h u n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t p e r l u d i s e r t a i d e n g a n u s a h a p e n i n g k a t a n p e n y e d i a a n g u l a p a s i r . S e m e n t a r a i t u J u m l a h , g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i m i n t a s e m a k i n r e s p o n s i f t e r h a d a p g u l a p a s i r t e r u t a m a d i w i l a y a h p e d e s a a n I n d o n e s i a . O l e h s e b a b i t u d i p e r l u k a n a d a n y a s i s t e m d i s t r i b u s i y a n g m a n t a p d e n g a n d u k u n g a n s a r a n a d a n p r a s a r a n a d i s t r i b u s i n y a u n t u k m e n j a m i n k e t e r s e d i a a n g u l a p a s i r b a g i m a s y a r a k a t d i d a e r a h p e d e s a a n t e r u t a m a u n t u k d a e r a h y a n g j a u h d a r i s e n t r a p r o d u k s i .

334

Trend dun I'rospek Konsumsi Gula dl Indonesia

T a b e l 8 H a s i l P r o y e k s i K e b u t u h a n G u l a P a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a T a h u n 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 u n t u k S e k t o r R u m a h T a n g g a ,

S e k t o r I n d u s t r i d a n G a b u n g a n S e k t o r R u m a h T a n g g a d a n I n d u s t r i ( K g )

Rmh Tangga Industri Total Rmh Tangga Industri Total Rmh Tangga Industri Total Rmh Tangga Industri Total

1999 1688896026 1322945120 3011841146 1688896026 I 322945120 3011841146 1688896026 1322945120 3011141146 1688896026 1322945120 3011941146 2000 1736218497 1360013733 3096232230 1741855712 1364429472 3106285184 1747492926 1368845212 3116338137 1753130140 1373250951 3126391091 2001 1763119529 1381085834 3144205364 1769282055 1385913061 3155195116 1775444581 1390740287 3166194863 1781607107 1395567514 3177174621 2002 1790214170 1402317427 3192541597 1796959639 1407593450 3204553089 1803695107 1412869474 3216564581 1810430576 1418145498 3228576073 2003 1817541869 1423715912 3241257781 1824902114 1429481335 3254383449 1832262359 1435246758 3267109116 1839612603 1441012181 3280634784 2004 1845031023 1445287868 3290368891 1853122431 145186858 3304709289 1861163837 1457885849 3319049685 1869205244 1464184839 33,13390083 2005 1872852414 1467041739 3339894153 1881636314 1473922338 3355558652 1890420214 1480802938 3371223151 1899204113 1487683537 3386887650 2006 1900962823 1489061169 3390023993 1910556388 1496575994 3407132382 1920149951 1504090819 .3424240771 1929743515 1511605645 3441349160 2007 1929023215 1511041420 3440064635 1939497355 1519246017 3458743372 1949971495 1527450615 3477422109 1960445634 1535655212 3496100846 2008 1532974354 1532974354 3489997557 1968454615 1541928802 3510383416 197886027 1550883250 3530769276 1991317439 1559837697 3551155136 2009 1984965016 1554861721 3539826737 1997436680 156431018 3562067698 2009908344 1574400315 3584308660 2022380009 1584169612 3606549621 2010 2012862043 1576714005 3589576048 2026463761 1587368495 3613832256 2040065479 1598022985 3638088464 2053657196 1608677475 3662344671

Henri Filriadi dan Isang Gonarsyah

H a s i l p r o y e k s i k e b u t u h a n k o n s u m s i g u l a p a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a u n t u k p e r i o d e 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a j u m l a h g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i b u t u h k a n b e r a d a d i a t a s a n g k a 3 j u t a t o n p e r t a h u n . S e m a k i n t i n g g i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , m a k a j u m l a h g u l a p a s i r y a n g d i b u t u h k a n j u g a s e m a k i n b e s a r . N a m u n m e l i h a t k e c e n d e r u n g a n l u a s a r e a l t e b u y a n g s e m a k i n m e n u r u n , m a k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n p e r m i n t a a n g u l a a k a n m e l e b i h i p e n a w a r a n g u l a . H a l i n i j u g a d i t u n j u k k a n d e n g a n k e c e n d e r u n g a n i m p o r y a n g s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t . A d a n y a g e i a l a d e p r e s i a s i r u p i a h d a n k e c e n d e r u n g a n i m p o r g u l a y a n g s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t p a d a a k h i r n y a a k a n m e n g u r a s d e v i s a n e g a r a y a n g c u k u p b a n y a k u n t u k m e n g i m p o r g u l a . K e c e n d e r u n g a n i n i h e n d a k n y a s e m a k i n m e n g u a t k a n t e k a d u n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o d u k s i g u l a n a s i o n a l m e l a l u i u p a y a p e r b a i k a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s d a n e f i s i e n s i d e n g a n s a s a r a n k e m a n d i r i a n d a n p e n i n g k a t a n d a y a s a i n g i n d u s t r i g u l a n a s i o n a l d e n g a n p r i o r i t a s u t a m a p e m e n u h a n k e b u t u h a n d a l a m n e g e r i ( E m a w a t i d a n G o n a r s y a h , 1 9 9 8 ) .

D A F T A R P U S T A K A

A n w a r , D e d e n H u d a e d u n . 1 9 9 6 . P r o y e k s i P e r m i n t a a n P a n g a n d i N u s a T e n g g a r a T i m u r T a h u n 2 0 0 5 . T e s i s F a k u l t a s P a s c a s a r j a n a I n s t i t u t P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

E m a w a t i . 1 9 9 7 . K a j i a n K e r a g a a n P a s a r G u l a I n d o n e s i a d a n S i m u l a s i D a m p a k K e b i j a k a n L i b e r a l i s a s i P e r d a g a n g a n G u l a D u n i a . T e s i s F a k u l t a s P a s c a s a r j a n a I n s t i t u t P e r t a n i a n B n g o r .

^ d a n I s a n g G o n a r s y a h . 1 9 9 8 . A n a l i s i s E k o n o m e t r i k P a s a r G u l a I n d o n e s i a , m e m a s u k i E r a G l o b a l i s a s i P e r d a g a n g a n D u n i a . E K I V o l l . X L V I , N o . 1

E r w i d o d o , T . S u d a r y a n t o , A . P u r w o t o , M e w a A r i a n i , K . S . I n d r a n i n g s i h . 1 9 9 6 . T e l a a h a n T r e n d K o n s u m s i B e r a s d i I n d o n e s i a . P u s a t P e n e l i t i a n S o s i a l E k o n o m i P e r t a n i a n b e k e j a s a m a d e n g a n P r o y e k D i v e r s i f i k a s i P a n g a n d a n g i z i P u s a t D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

H a s y a n t o , A . 1 9 9 9 . A n a l i s i s P e n a w a r a n d a n P e r m i n t a a n G u l a P a s i r d i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 6 - 1 9 9 7 . S k r i p s i J u r u s a n I l m u - l l m u S o s i a l E k o n o m i P e r t a n i a n F a k u l t a s P e r t a n i a n I n s t i t u t P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

3 3 6

Trend dan Prospek Konsums i Gula di Indonesia

P u s a t P e n e l i t i a n S o s i a l E k o n o m i P e r t a n i a n 1 9 9 7 . A n a l i s i s P e r m i n t a a n d a n P e n a w a r a n K o m o d i t a s P e r t a n i a n U t a m a d a l a m P e l i t a V I I . P u s a t P e n e l i t i a n S o s i a l E k o n o m i P e r t a n i a n . B o g o r .

S a w i t M . H u s e i n . , P . S u h a r n o , A n a s R a c h m a n . 1 9 9 9 . E k o n o m i G u l a D i I n d o n e s i a . P e n e r b i t I n s t i t u t e P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

S u s m i a d i , A . 1 9 8 6 . E l a s t i s i t a s P e n d a p a t a n P e r m i n t a a n G u l a d i I n d o n e s i a . T e s i s F a k u l t a s P a s c a s a r j a n a I n s t i t u t P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

U t a m i , S . 1 9 8 4 . P e r m i n t a a n B a h a n P a n g a n P e n t i n g d i I n d o n e s i a . D i s e r t a s i D o k t o r F a k u l t a s , P a s c a s a r j a n a I n t i i t u t P e r t a n i a n B o g o r .

W i r i o a t m o d j o B o e d i j o n o . 1 9 8 4 . P e r g u l a a n d i I n d o n e s i a d a n P r o s p e k n y a d i M a s a D e p a n . P u s a t P e n e l i t i a n P e r k e b u n a n G u l a I n d o n e s i a . P a s u r u a n .

337

Henri Filriadi dan Isang Conarsyah

L a m p i r a n 1 H a s i l D u g a a n T e r h a d a p E l a s t i s i t a s H a r g a S e n d i r i d a n E l a s t i s i t a s

P e n d a p a t a n G u l a P a s i r d a r i B e r b a g a i P e n e l i t i a n T e r d a h u l u

Hasil D a n a l i t • a n

Sumber L / a i a

Model Wilayah

D o n o l i f 1 rs n

Lokasi Col . rengeiuaran

Elastisitas Hasil D a n a l i t • a n

Sumber L / a i a

Model Wilayah

D o n o l i f 1 rs n

Lokasi Col . rengeiuaran Harga Sendiri Pendapatan

Utami (1984)

Susenas 1978

Double-log Barton

Indonesia Desa: Rendah Sedang Tinggi

-1,72 -3,29

0,57 -1,32

Kota: Rendah Sedang Tinggi

-1,13 -2,39

0,51 0,16

Susmiadi (1986)

Susenas 1983

Fungsi Engel Indonesia Desa Kota Desa+Kota

-0,79 0,49 0,65

Ditjentan (1988)

Time Series AIDS Indonesia Desa+Kota -0,30 0,51

Sudaryanto et al (1995)

Susenas 1990

AIDS Indonesia Desa: Rendah Sedang Tinggi

-0,31 -0,59 -0,24

0,38 0,18 0,16

Kota: Rendah Sedang Tinggi

1,85 -0,65 -0,65

0,13 0,18 0,16

Hermanto et al (1996)

Susenas 1993

AIDS Indonesia Desa; Rendah Sedang Tinggi

-0,84 -0,71 -0,69

0,46 1,06 0,81

Kola: Rendah Sedang Tinggi

-0,78 -0,78 -0,69

1,08 1,06 0,81

Ernawati (1997)

Time Series

1966-1995

Persamaan Simultan

Indonesia Rumah tangga Desa+Kota

0,54

industri Desa+Kota

0,88

Haryanto (1999)

Time Series

1976-1997

Persamaan Simultan

Indonesia Desa+Kota -0,47 0,32

3 3 8

Contributors to This Issue

Henri Fitriadi Researcher, R e s e a r c h C e n t e r f o r R u b b e r , B o g o r

Isang Gonarsyah Professor, B o g o r I n s t i t u t e o f A g r i c u l t u r e , B o g o r

Priyono Tjiptoherjanto Professor, o f E c o n o m i c , U n i v e r s i t y o f I n d o n e s i a

Thia Jasmina Researcher, I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i c a n d S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , F a c u l t y o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a

Sanjoyo Staff, N a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t P l a n n i n g A g e n c y ( B a p p e n a s ) , J a k a r t a

trend dan prospek konsumsi gula di indonesia - lpem

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