trend evolution: 3d printing trends (part 1) - 3d printing industry

8/11/2019 Trend Evolution: 3D Printing Trends (Part 1) - 3D Printing Industry

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9/25/14, 11:2rend Evolution: 3D Printing Trends (Part 1) - 3D Printing Industry

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The Club Of Rome, The First Global Revolution

The 3D printing trends that we will explore reside soundly within the new

technology facet, which, as we can see from the illustration, is interlinked

causally with all other components of human society with the exception o

religious and spiritual values. I would brie"y digress to suggest that there

indeed a link between even these two segments, as technology facilitates

scienti!c understanding, and scienti!c understanding has been seen as a

challenge to religious concepts since Neitsches philosophy and The Enlighera, which began here where I write, in Edinburgh, Scotland. Indeed, the

abrasion between less "uid conservative religious value systems and new

technologies is evident every where from US Christian Evangelical activist

opposition to abortion, through to Islamic fundamentalism which targets t

moral decline caused by a shift in values from religious thought to empiric

humanism. This tangent is highly relevant to 3D printing, particularly in

bioprinting of human organs and the shift of ownership of means of prod

from Capitalist and State to the individual seen in home 3D printing and it

consequences for Intellectual Property. As an example: thou shalt not stea

contingent upon how a society classi!es ownership base morals are

immutable, but their mode of expression within culture is transient.

Onto the macroscopic context of 3D printing within the facet of technolog

the milieu of the global economy, before we emphasise technological tren

then hone our observations to 3D printing trends.


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IMAGE CREDIT: European Space Agency, SOURCE: The Living Earth

The rate of technological progress is increasing. This is a concept that man

now familiar with, but it seems that the acceleration of rate of change of

technologyis a phenomena that many !nd di$cult to cognitively and emot

process: an exponential trend that de!

es our linear perception of time. Puanother way, humans are walking up a hill that is getting steeper ever mor

quickly. The hill is technology. The stress of modern life is primarily becaus

this, directly and indirectly. A factor in this is the exponential growth of

computing, a central techeme in 3D printing technologies.

IMAGE CREDIT: The Law Of Accelerated Returns, by Ray Kurzweil


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IMAGE CREDIT:SOURCE

It is within the terminology of disruptive technology that we often hear ab

3D printing and additive manufacturing. Here follows a shortlist of the key

disruptive technologies within the next decade, by estimation of global ecoimpact in USD, sourced from McKinsey & Company:

Mobile Internet: 3.7 10.8 trillionAutomation of Knowledge Work: 5.2 6.7 trillionInternet of Things: 2.7 6.2 trillionCloud Technology: 1.7 6.2 trillionAdvanced Robotics: 1.7 4.5 trillion

Near / Full Autonomous Vehicles: 0.2 1.9 trillionNext Generation Genomics: 0.7 -1.6 trillionEnergy Storage: 100 600 billion3D Printing: 200 600 billionAdvanced Materials: 200 500 billionAdvanced Oil & Gas: 100 500 billionRenewable Energy 200 -300 billion

When we note that 3D printing has an estimated global market worth pote

double that of renewable energy, and greater than new gas and oil explor

and extraction, the size of the predicted impact of 3D printing becomes ev

Whilst the Internet of Things is an example of a disruptive technology som

times the economic impact of 3D printing, this should be of little surprise,

simply put, 3D printing is a way of making a proportion of things, whereas

Internet of Things is a network of almost all made things.

I choose this example as there will be a measure of crossover between 3D

printing both in the guise of industrial additive manufacturing and pers

desktop 3D printing and the Internet of Things. Previously I have articul

articles that I believe we will witness a possible set of de!nitions of netwo

within the overall Web Of Everything. 3D printing o#ers a makernet, a set
http://www.mckinsey.com/about_ushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovationhttp://visualeconsite.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/history-of-products.gif


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intertwined maker social networks; 3D !le repositories; and home manufa

devices, a larger than average number of them opensource, that are print

with smart components enabling connectivity and big data potentiality tha

be considered a crossover with the Internet of Things.

This latter phenomena will, if my prediction proves accurate, be based upoArduino and Raspeberry Pi boards already popular with makers, sensory

components and internet connectivity components that o#er a huge pote

personalisation. A counter thesis is the limitations of shared data and

connectivity that will result from personalisation, but, in turn, this creates

oppportunity for platform owners such as Apple, Google, Microsoftand

Samsung to o#er a broader range of SDKs to app developers, and App

developers to o#

er ever more customisable apps for their smartphone, taand smart TV consumers.

Whilst we are currently experiencing the peak of hype for 3D printing, the

potential for this remarkable sub-set of technologies is vast, and, perhaps

much as, or more than, other disruptive technologies, that potential is di$

predict, because whilst oil and gas exploration has a set of variables that a

based upon technology, those technologies are con!ned to fairly speci!c

operational bounds and desired outcome scenarios. For 3D printing, almo

existing product sector could be disrupted, almost anyone can become inv

and almost any potential set of outcome scenarios may emerge, though

con!ned to limiting variables that we will look at shortly.
https://developer.tizen.org/downloads/tizen-sdkhttp://dev.windowsphone.com/en-ushttp://developer.android.com/sdk/index.htmlhttps://developer.apple.com/support/ios/ios-dev-center.html


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The world is waking to a new, true third way of making: subtractive

manufacturing, moulding, and now additive manufacturing 3D printing

of making that empowers the user: not just the business owner and inves

not just the state that takes possession of its nations means of production

could contribute towards lifting a proportion of the worlds poor from pov

via home and localised making, create middle-class wealth to increase pur

power in the wider economy, and facilitate existing large businesses via th

many direct bene!ts that additive manufacturing can o#er on an industria

manufacturing scale, plus the pro!ts garnered from the wealth spent by a

a%uent middle-class, and opportunities created by opensource via crowd

sourcing.

The Gartner reportpredicted worldwide shipments of sub-$100,000 3D pr

grew 49% last year, reaching a total of 56,507 units. That rate of growth is

forecast to rise to 75% in 2014, fuelling shipments of 98,065 units. Its the

time Gartner has put together a forecast for the sub-$100,000 3D printer m

so thats something of a rite of passage for the technology too.

Gartners forecast shows enterprises continuing to dominate 3D printerpurchases over the next few years, with enterprises spending more than $

million in 2013 vs $87 million in the consumer segment; and $536 million

2014 vs consumer spending of $133 million. Combined end-user spending

printers is predicted to hit $412 million this year, up 43% from spending o

million in 2012. While the analysis expects spending to increase 62% next

reaching $669 million.

The 3D printer market has reached its in"ection point,stated Pete Basili

research director at Gartner, in a statement late in 2013: While still a n

market, with hype outpacing the technical realities, the speed of developm

rise in buyer interest are pressing hardware, software and service provider

o#er easier-to-use tools and materials that produce consistently high-qual
http://www.gartner.com/resId=2598122


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The analyst expects 3D printers to have the biggest impact on industries,

including consumer products, industrial and manufacturing, and a mediu

impact on construction, education, energy, government, medical product

military, retail, telecommunications, transportation and utilities. Low impa

industries include banking and !nancial services and insurance.

The 3D printing industrys traditional prime report, The Wohlers Report, 20

edition, stated the following important developments in 3D printing applic

processes, manufacturers, and materials:

The market for 3D printing in 2012, consisting of all products and services

worldwide, grew 28.6% (CAGR) to $2.204 billion. This is up from $1.714 bill

2011, when it grew 29.4%. Growth in 2010 was 24.1%. The average annual

(CAGR) of the industry over the past 25 years is an impressive 25.4% includ

CAGR 2010 2012 of 27.4%.

According to research by Wohlers Associates growth of the low-cost (unde

$5,000) personal 3D printer market segment averaged a phenomenal 34

each year from 2008 through 2011. In 2012, the increase cooled signi!can

an estimated 46.3%. Wohlers Associates believes the 3D printing industry

continue strong double-digit growth in forthcoming years, and the sale of

printing products and services will approach $6 billion worldwide. By 2021

Wohlers Associates forecasts the industry to reach $10.8 billion.

It took the 3D printing industry 20 years to reach $1 billion in size. In !ve

additional years, the industry generated its second $1 billion. It is expected

double again, to $4 billion, in 2015. This exponential growth rate is forecas

continue until at least 2025 by which time the industry will have reached u

$600 billion.

Regarding operating systems, Microsoft 8.1 is supporting 3D printing with

own !le format, and Linux supports 3D printing APIs. Only Apple and Goo


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! !

RichRap !

Great Stu!. I generally believe that the more useful (for small/medium business indu

printers are around the $5k+ point - look at the The Mark One carbon fiber 3D printe

printers will slow the hype but form some clarity for 3D printing andalso increase th

for many more users - exponential growth++

! !

STaylor

!

Thank you. An interesting insight as ever Rich, we should write something to

one day?

! !

RichRap !

Yes, lets do that.

Products are already all digital in their design and manufacture, we ju

needed these tools to come to the desktop.

As Chris Anderson put it in his book 'Makers' give away the

bits and sell the Atoms Open innovation is out there and successfu

countries manufacture stu!. It's safe to say 3D printing is here to stay

3D printing will extend the reach of manufacturing

for many, a single prototype at home or thousands of di!erent one-o!

global industry. Nothing will be considered too niche ever again.

Noam

!

Excellent analysis of

the current stateof the industry.

We

are doing our first steps in fulfilling this vision that 3D printing will disrupt

the traditional spare part supply chains and just launched kazzata.com
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! !

consumer mar e go ng o e a goo mar e , u as you say, e supers ores w aof this market !

! !

BlackDogConsulting !

Great graphic for the Hype Cycle and a thought provoking article. Do you think the

wave of consolidation amongst manufacturers indicates a surplus capacity?

! !

jo mama

!

I think the numbers in this article is way o!, With new materials that will become pri

and robot technology. Most manufacturing now done in asia and india will lost statu

3d printing, With all this competition the price of 3d printers will be too cheap to ma

asia or india just do to the price of shipping, free energy technology will also change

these numbers in the near future. just look at the impact of solar energy in the last 2

! !

BlackDogConsulting !

I like your optimism.

! !

S Taylor !

I agree regarding the numbers in terms of the potential of 3D printing sales -

something I mention in articles, although I'm wary of sounding like a hype lo

wouldn't say that the numbers are far o!in terms of the near future however

uptake of home 3D printers is exponential, but still only 56,507 units in 2013

I love the potential of free energy in terms of benefits for the world's poorestsomething that is over-hyped, and will be regulated and restricted by most S

across the world. The example of Tesla tells us that when there is massive p

potential, investors follow those who monetise, and that investment produce

advancement in that technology, and distribution of that technology that can

be competed against. Completely free is a dead business model - redhat Lin

example of the antithesis, but even that business is an example that purely f

means a small market-share, as compared to Microsoft, Apple or Google, fo

example.

Solar energy is vital, but still heavily restricted by cost production and e"cie

relative to other energy sources, here in 2014. You'll perhaps enjoy my previo

article 3D Printing Solar Solutions: http://3dprintingindustry.com/...
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ustry.com%2F2014%2F02%2F24%2Ftrend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1%2F&t_e=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_d=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_t=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&s_o&l=#http://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&disqus_version=aa2ab1ed&f=3dprintingindustry&t_i=24008%20http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F%3Fp%3D24008&t_u=http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F2014%2F02%2F24%2Ftrend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1%2F&t_e=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_d=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_t=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&s_o&l=#http://3dprintingindustry.com/2014/02/24/trend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1/#comment-1266576491http://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&disqus_version=aa2ab1ed&f=3dprintingindustry&t_i=24008%20http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F%3Fp%3D24008&t_u=http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F2014%2F02%2F24%2Ftrend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1%2F&t_e=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_d=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_t=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&s_o&l=#http://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&disqus_version=aa2ab1ed&f=3dprintingindustry&t_i=24008%20http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F%3Fp%3D24008&t_u=http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F2014%2F02%2F24%2Ftrend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1%2F&t_e=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_d=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_t=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&s_o&l=#http://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&disqus_version=aa2ab1ed&f=3dprintingindustry&t_i=24008%20http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F%3Fp%3D24008&t_u=http%3A%2F%2F3dprintingindustry.com%2F2014%2F02%2F24%2Ftrend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1%2F&t_e=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_d=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&t_t=Trend%20Evolution%3A%203D%20Printing%20Trends%20(Part%201)&s_o&l=#


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Where is the link?

Nice, will definitely try th

3D Printed Dolls Take the Bronze in UKs

Independent Toy Awards

how can we work together? as we

are advertising company in Cairo

Skylander Toys are Prototyped with

Printing Watch How

This is fab! 3D printing isn

prototyping anymore as the team at

has rolled out their Developers

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