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  • Trends in Hillary Clinton Coverage Around the MidtermsA Study of Traditional and Online News, as Well As Social Channels

    PRESENTED BY: Kristin Oberlander, Dan Fowler, Gabriel Torres-Soler, Sinetra BowdryDATE: 12.9.2014

  • DANIEL FOWLER GABRIELA TORRES-

    SOLER

    Graduation: Summer 2015

    SINETRA BOWDRY KRISTIN OBERLANDER

    Graduation: Spring 2016 Graduation: Fall 2015 Graduation: Fall 2014

    2

    Communications Research Fall 2014

  • 3

    A definite 2016 contender

    HEADLINE: After Drubbing, All Eyes on Hillary Clinton

    -- Maggie Haberman POLITICO

    Midterm elections are a major news event. Democrats took a beating. People dont like President Obama. Hillary was a

    very active campaigner this year. People expect Hillary will run for president in

    2016.

    Source: Dennis Van Tine/AP

  • If I want to knock a story off the front page, I just change my hairstyle.

    -- HILLARY CLINTON

  • 5

    A quick review of the presentation

    Timeline

    1) METHODOLOGY

    2) METRICS

    3) TRENDS

    4) RECOMMENDATIONS

    5) CONCLUSION

  • 6

    How did we find it?

  • 7

    Factiva, by the numbers

    October 21 November 18

    (2 weeks before and after 2014 midterm elections)

    Major U.S. Business and NewsPOLITICONot WashingtonPost.com (duplicates

    paper copy)

    Photo Credit: Flickr.com/Lance

  • 8

    How did we characterize it?

  • 9

    An analysis of many categories

    1) The basics (author, Clinton as a candidate, etc.)

    2) Digging deeper (positive, negative, neutral, in between?)

    3) Favorability rating involved a language analysis

  • Weve come to a fork in the road

    10

    Positive: All of us at Vogue look forward to putting on the cover the first female President of the United States. Oct. 29, (New York) Daily News article Negative: Republicans hope to run against Clinton given what (RNC chairman Reince) Priebus said was her lackluster performance helping candidates in 2014.

    Nov. 7, Christian Science Monitor article Grey Areas: And to all the sexist pundits who pontificate about whether Hillary will be able to run for president and be a grandmother at the same time or if the grandmother status will soften her image, I say please.

    Nov. 9, Denver Post article

    Photo Credit: Flickr.com/MoDOTPhotos

  • 11

    What did we see?

  • 12

    Most articles referred to her as a 2016 contender

    70% of articles in this time period mentioned Hillary Clinton as a presidential candidate, whereas 30% did not.

    Hillary Clinton Presidential Mentions

    121 articles

    51 articles

    Yes

    No

  • 13

    Before, During, or After Election Day

    By and large, the articles focused on Clintons campaigning before midterms, and her status afterward.

    Publication Date of Article

    Before Election (10/21-11/3)

    On Election (11/4)

    After Election (11/5-11/18)

    Unknown

  • 14

    Those favorable to a Hillary 2016 run

    Photo Credit: Associated Press

    Robert Schroeder, Market Watch Positive Example Quote: "Wall Street bankers by and large badly want the former secretary of state and ex-New York senator to be president"; Clinton is a pragmatic problem-solver not prone to populist rhetoric"; Wall Street isn't shy about coming out for Clinton"

    Maggie Haberman, POLITICO Positive/Neutral Example Quote: "There were knowing references from some patrons who told her they wanted to support her again. She laughed and kept going, or asked people to keep their focus on Tuesdays vote. Others were people shed worked with in the past, like union leaders, who she greeted warmly.

  • James Freeman, The Wall Street Journal Negative Example quote: "But the Warren rhetoric has now been exceeded by Mrs. Clintons absurd argument that businesses dont create jobs." Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post Negative Example quote: "But in either event, she lacks conviction, the belief in something for which she is willing to defend on principle even against the wishes of her base. " Peter Nicholas, The Wall Street Journal Negative Example Quote: "Liberals are casting about for a committed populist to run against her in 2016. They see the former secretary of state and senator as too closely aligned with large corporations and question whether she can be counted on to narrow the income gap in America."

    15

    Those campaigning against a Hillary 2016 run

    Photo credit: Associated Press

  • 16

  • 17

    Monitoring online conversations

    After the corporations dont create jobs comment,

    Fox News had the most shares, beating liberal blog

    Politicus USA by 20k shares, in the selected time period.

    Fox News had 64,216 shares, the majority of which were on Facebook..

    Politicus USA had 43,049 shares on a positive article about Clinton and Warren

    campaigning together.Photo credit: BuzzSumo, 2014

  • 18

    October 26, 2014 Dont let anybody tell you that its corporations and businesses that create

    jobs. (The Washington Post) Photo credit: BuzzSumo, 2014

  • 19

    Pew Research Journalism Project

    Observations

    LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES HAVE DIFFERENT MEDIA CONSUMPTION HABITS

    Consistent liberals trust 28 of 36 news outlets.

    More likely to follow issue-based groups, rather than political parties or candidates in their Facebook feeds.

    They follow government and political news very closely, and are more likely to be a news source for

    friends.

    Analysis

    GO TO WHERE LIBERALS TEND TO DWELL AND MEET THEM IN THAT SPACE.

    47%

    44%

    According to Pew Research, consistent conservatives see more Facebook posts in line with their views, versus 32% of

    consistent liberals. Conservatives tend to rely solely on Fox News.

    Consistent liberals are more likely to block others on social media because of politics. They are less unified in their

    media loyalty, relying on NPR and the New York Times most often.

    CONCLUSION

    Democrats have greater variety of online and traditional media news sources to pitch stories and be heard.

  • 20

    Review & wrap up

  • 21

    Where to go from here

    Lay the groundwork for a relationship. Give them exclusives and offer information in any way that you can to help them do their job more easily. They will be your most important line of defense in debunking false

    information.

    Observations

    GET IN TOUCH WITH REPORTERS WHO ARE YOUR ALLIES

    Implications

    Hillary Clinton needs to develop and begin telling a coherent story about the economy that explains what Democrats have done right, connects with peoples current displeasure, and shows a way forward. (The

    Washington Post, Nov. 11)

    CONNECT WITH VOTERS DISPLEASURE ON ECONOMY

    Social media only amplifies bad stories, and your enemies have a vast network. The good news is, so do you. Monitor your outposts to find emerging issues and address them swiftly before they gain momentum and

    make it to mainstream media outlets.

    DONT FORGET ONLINE CONVERSATIONS

  • THANK YOU!