Trends in Hillary Clinton Coverage Around the MidtermsA Study of Traditional and Online News, as Well As Social Channels

PRESENTED BY: Kristin Oberlander, Dan Fowler, Gabriel Torres-Soler, Sinetra BowdryDATE: 12.9.2014

DANIEL FOWLER GABRIELA TORRES-

SOLER

Graduation: Summer 2015

SINETRA BOWDRY KRISTIN OBERLANDER

Graduation: Spring 2016 Graduation: Fall 2015 Graduation: Fall 2014

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Communications Research – Fall 2014

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A definite 2016 contender

HEADLINE: After Drubbing, All Eyes on Hillary Clinton

-- Maggie Haberman POLITICO

Midterm elections are a major news event. Democrats took a beating. People don’t like President Obama. Hillary was a

very active campaigner this year. People expect Hillary will run for president in

2016.

Source: Dennis Van Tine/AP

“If I want to knock a story off the front page, I just change my hairstyle.”

-- HILLARY CLINTON

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A quick review of the presentation

Timeline

1)  METHODOLOGY

2)  METRICS

3)  TRENDS

4)  RECOMMENDATIONS

5)  CONCLUSION

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How did we find it?

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Factiva, by the numbers

October 21 – November 18

(2 weeks before and after 2014 midterm elections)

Major U.S. Business and NewsPOLITICONot WashingtonPost.com (duplicates

paper copy)

Photo Credit: Flickr.com/Lance

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How did we characterize it?

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An analysis of many categories

1)  The basics (author, Clinton as a candidate, etc.)

2)  Digging deeper (positive, negative, neutral, in between?)

3)  Favorability rating involved a language analysis

We’ve come to a fork in the road…

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Positive: “All of us at Vogue look forward to putting on the cover the first female President of the United States.” – Oct. 29, (New York) Daily News article Negative: “Republicans hope to run against Clinton given what (RNC chairman Reince) Priebus said was her lackluster performance helping candidates in 2014.” –

Nov. 7, Christian Science Monitor article Grey Areas: “And to all the sexist pundits who pontificate about whether Hillary ‘will be able to run for president and be a grandmother at the same time’ or if the grandmother status will ‘soften her image,’ I say please.”

– Nov. 9, Denver Post article

Photo Credit: Flickr.com/MoDOTPhotos

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What did we see?

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Most articles referred to her as a 2016 contender

70% of articles in this time period mentioned Hillary Clinton as a presidential candidate, whereas 30% did not.

Hillary Clinton Presidential Mentions

121 articles

51 articles

Yes

No

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Before, During, or After Election Day

By and large, the articles focused on Clinton’s campaigning before midterms, and her status afterward.

Publication Date of Article

Before Election (10/21-11/3)

On Election (11/4)

After Election (11/5-11/18)

Unknown

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Those favorable to a Hillary 2016 run

Photo Credit: Associated Press

Robert Schroeder, “Market Watch” – Positive Example Quote: "Wall Street bankers … by and large badly want the former secretary of state and ex-New York senator to be president"; “Clinton is a pragmatic problem-solver not prone to populist rhetoric"; Wall Street isn't shy about coming out for Clinton"

Maggie Haberman, POLITICO – Positive/Neutral Example Quote: "There were knowing references from some patrons who told her they wanted to support her again. She laughed and kept going, or asked people to keep their focus on Tuesday’s vote. Others were people she’d worked with in the past, like union leaders, who she greeted warmly.”

James Freeman, The Wall Street Journal – Negative Example quote: "But the Warren rhetoric has now been exceeded by Mrs. Clinton’s absurd argument that businesses don’t create jobs." Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post – Negative Example quote: "But in either event, she lacks conviction, the belief in something for which she is willing to defend on principle even against the wishes of her base. " Peter Nicholas, The Wall Street Journal – Negative Example Quote: "Liberals are casting about for a committed populist to run against her in 2016. They see the former secretary of state and senator as too closely aligned with large corporations and question whether she can be counted on to narrow the income gap in America."

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Those campaigning against a Hillary 2016 run

Photo credit: Associated Press

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Monitoring online conversations

After the “corporations don’t create jobs” comment,

Fox News had the most shares, beating liberal blog

Politicus USA by 20k shares, in the selected time period.

Fox News had 64,216 shares, the majority of which were on Facebook..

Politicus USA had 43,049 shares on a positive article about Clinton and Warren

campaigning together.Photo credit: BuzzSumo, 2014

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October 26, 2014 “Don’t let anybody tell you that it’s corporations and businesses that create

jobs.” (The Washington Post) Photo credit: BuzzSumo, 2014

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Pew Research Journalism Project

Observations

LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES HAVE DIFFERENT MEDIA CONSUMPTION HABITS

»  Consistent liberals trust 28 of 36 news outlets.

»  More likely to follow issue-based groups, rather than political parties or candidates in their Facebook feeds.

»  They follow government and political news very closely, and are more likely to be a news source for

friends.

Analysis

GO TO WHERE LIBERALS TEND TO DWELL AND MEET THEM IN THAT SPACE.

47%

44%

According to Pew Research, consistent conservatives see more Facebook posts in line with their views, versus 32% of

consistent liberals. Conservatives tend to rely solely on Fox News.

Consistent liberals are more likely to block others on social media because of politics. They are less unified in their

media loyalty, relying on NPR and the New York Times most often.

CONCLUSION

Democrats have greater variety of online and traditional media news sources to pitch stories and be heard.

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Review & wrap up

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Where to go from here…

Lay the groundwork for a relationship. Give them exclusives and offer information in any way that you can to help them do their job more easily. They will be your most important line of defense in debunking false

information.

Observations

GET IN TOUCH WITH REPORTERS WHO ARE YOUR ALLIES

Implications

Hillary Clinton needs to develop and begin telling a coherent story about the economy that explains what Democrats have “done right, connects with people’s current displeasure, and shows a way forward.” (The

Washington Post, Nov. 11)

CONNECT WITH VOTERS’ DISPLEASURE ON ECONOMY

Social media only amplifies bad stories, and your enemies have a vast network. The good news is, so do you. Monitor your outposts to find emerging issues and address them swiftly before they gain momentum and

make it to mainstream media outlets.

DON’T FORGET ONLINE CONVERSATIONS

THANK YOU!