trends in market and release of automated driving · trends in market and release of automated...

Trends in Market and Release of Automated Driving

GGS Heilbronn 26.09.2019Charles Degutis, Director Product ManagementDr. Bernhard Pauli, Director Release Strategy

Robert Bosch GmbH, Chassis Systems Control, Business Unit Automated Driving, Abstatt (Germany)

For information only - For information only - For information only

Internal | Chassis Systems Control | CC-AD/PRM, CC-AD/EYR | 26.09.2019 | V1.3© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Automated DrivingBenefits of self-driving cars

Higher fuel efficiency

Up to 39% improvement in highway fuel economy

Reducedcongestion

80% improvement in traffic throughput

Gain in productivity

56 minutes per day freed up for other uses

Improvedsafety

Reduction in motor vehicle accident rates

Democratizationof mobility

Allow all age ranges to be mobile



…primarily through Softbank in commercially oriented venturesMore than €5 BN Investment in AD 10.2018 – 03.2019…

3

$1 bn

$1 bn $0.5 bn



…pushed by new safety regulation and enhanced L2 functionalityDriver Assistance with increasing importance…

4

ZF ProAI central computer features powerful AI capabilities, NVIDIA DRIVE Xavier processor and Level 2+ software stack

Super Cruise



…and NCAP influence leads to core business price pressureCooperation / joint development take on greater importance…

5

JOINT DEVELOPMENT

Open source takes hold ina wide range of topic areas

OpenADxNEW

NEW

NCAP

GSR / NCAP pushesinstallation rates andincreases price pressure

Legal parameterdevelopment lagstechnology development

COOPERATION OEM cooperation targets

other OEMs

Tier 2 suppliers drive newcooperation modelsproviding ADDA kits

NEW NEWInstallation rates through ‘26

C

NEW FUNCTIONS

OEMs target advanced L2functions as bridge to L3

L2

L3L2

Hands-Free

System Complexity

Time



Carsharing Movement

© Robert Bosch GmbH 2018. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

UAT: Urban Automated Taxi

Urban Automated

Taxis

Automated Private cars

Incremental Change

Vehi

cle

cont

rol

Vehicle ownership SharedIndividual

Driv

erAs

sist

Auto

mat

ed

Evol

utio

n

PC UAT

6

Focus Today

Evolutionary and disruptive development pathsAutomated Driving



Global Mega Trends on Connected and Automated Driving

© Robert Bosch Engineering and Business Solutions Private Limited 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.7

AD Market Potential

2025 2030

10 -> 15

20 -> 25

TJPHWP

Sources:IHS Markit Auto Executive Briefing, April 2017McKinsey, Automotive revolution, January 2016just-auto.comRoland BergerBCG

in Mio vehiclein Mio vehicle

Automated driving, passenger cars

Automated driving, commercial use (UAT)

TJP – Traffic Jam PilotHWP – Highway PilotUAT – Urban Automated Taxi

2025 2030

10 -> 15

20 -> 25

4 -> 16

1 -> 3

2025 2030


SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS



Automated Driving

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Partial vs. High Automation - Fail Safe vs. Fail Operational

High Automation

Decision Making System System

Responsibility Driver System

Insufficient Actuation Driver take over Not permissible

Situations addressed Selected use cases Selected use cases

System failure Fail safe / fail silent Fail operational(driver backup with delay)

Partial Automation

Conditional and High Automation require Redundancy for sensors, ECUs, communication and actuation New methods for data fusion and decision making

Level 2* (“Relax”) Level 3 “Do something else”

System

System

Not permissible

Selected use cases

Fail operational

Conditional AutomationLevel 4

*levels of driving automation definition per SAE



Localization

Surround sensing

Validation & release process

System architecture

Legislation

SafetyDecision making

Safety is non-negotiable!

Global Mega Trends on Connected and Automated Driving Fundamentals

Security



11

Safe automated

driving(L3-L5)

Integrated safety (ISO26262)System malfunctions

Safe drivingDriving rules and behavior

Increased safety with assisting functions Fundamentals of safety

We

are

a m

embe

r or f

ound

er

of m

any

com

mitt

ees

KIABS

Airbag control unit

Traction control system

ESP®

Electrical steering systems

Lane departure warning

Automatic emergency braking

Active pedestrian protection

Evasive steering support

Bosch has driven safety on system level for decades

Safety is part of Bosch’s core businessAutomated Driving

Misinterpretations of environment and foreseen misuse

Safety of the intended functionality


RELEASE REQUIREMENTS



Complex overall Situation with various RisksCurrently missing Regulations and Standards for AD lead to a …

13

Projects

CV

Development Strategy

Release Strategy


Internal | Chassis Systems Control | CC-AD/PRM, CC-AD/EYR | 26.09.2019 | V1.3© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Release Strategy for AD avoids and controls risks based on a …

Strategy

Avoiding and controlling of risks

(analogical to standards for safetyISO 26262and security ISO/PAS 21448,e.g.)

Risk identification

Root cause analysis

Measures

Risk evaluation

Release decision

Modality

Structured procedure based on legal needs and principles

Hazard and threat analysis focused on

technical and belonging legal aspects

Organizational and technical causes

Systematic proceeding

Reasonable and needed measures

Evaluation of all risks, i.e. unknown and

known risks

Safety expected by the public

Positive benefit risk ratio

ProcedureRisks by• Liability /Product Liability• Warranty• Market Acceptance

Failure of organization and of employees

Release process and verifiable application

• Judgement of processes and work products• Evaluation of

- unknown risks based on processes and methods- known risks based on work products

Decision based on • all remaining risks (liability, warranty, acceptance)• achieved safety compared to public expectation• result of benefit risk analysis

Failure of product

Engineering process and work products

Systematical Resolution Approach

14 For information only - For information only - For information only


Function

…

…

…

…

…

… …

… …

… …

…

…

… …

… …

…

…

...

Safety

…

…. …

…

… …

… …

…

… …

…

…

Relia-bility

…

© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

One main Element of the Release Strategy for AD is the …

The release argumentation provides the methods and the needed work products to prove the fulfillment of the mandatory product properties: function, conformity, safety, security, reliability.

The overall release strategy is centrally developed and provides a systematical and legally sound framework for the company and the employees to develop and to release AD systems.

Processes, QM-System, Values, BES-PE, Tools, Methods

Requirem

ents

Work Products

Arguments

Standards, Regulations, Laws, Homologation, State of the Art (currently not all AD specific)

Release of AD

Arguments by combination of• proceeding /method and• work product

constructed as explicit and logical chain

by complete and consistent decomposing

till providing the needed evidences

Confor-mity

…

AD System

Security

Only a structured proceeding in development and release makes AD systems reality!

GSN (Goal Structuring Notation) as method

Release Argumentation applying well proven Systematics


Internal | Chassis Systems Control | CC-AD/PRM, CC-AD/EYR | 26.09.2019 | V1.3© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.© Robert Bosch GmbH 2019. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

What are the exciting topics? Two new and difficult …

Wide spectrum in open world varying from simple to complex situations from usual to exceptional objects from safe to dangerous behaviors …

Release Argumentation

Challenges of AD – Open World Context and Safe Behavior



Example: Typical, but safety relevant Situation (@5 sec)What are the exciting topics?



Example: Detection of ghost object (@10 sec)What are the exciting topics?

18

Video example: Scenario:

Driving on an empty street at night

Special conditions: wet bumpy street, many light sources, reflections and shades with different forms

Initiator: Ghost object

System reaction: possibly wrong intervention



What are the goals to be achieved? The industry is discussing …Various Approaches for Safety Goals

Probability of accidents per hour at maximum

10E-7/h

Not safe

Assuming a small fleet of e.g. 100 000 vehicles, an accident happens every 100 h Waiting for the accident

Better than the human driver

x-times

Not consistent

Which factor x and why? Which driver, the ideal in theory, the average or the worst? Which accident statistics? The German, US or …? Which year?

19

Driving Tests without accidents at

30 Billion Miles

Not feasible

Statistical approach with several uncertaintiesAssuming 1000 test vehicles driving 24/7/52, test takes more than 100 years

Absolute 100% safety is totally impossible – that ´s real life! But what are the goals to be achieved?



An alternative Approach for Safety GoalsWhat are the goals to be achieved? The industry is discussing …

20

The top goal is to improve road safety. The AD system provides a rule-consistent and predictable behavior and causes no accidents. If other road users, animals, objects or obstacles cause a hazard, the AD system reacts in the

best way possible to prevent upcoming accidents or, if this is impossible, to mitigate the severity.

Alternative approach

… adopted from established safety systems like Airbag, ABS, ESP … derived from requirements on the behavior of a human driver … in accordance with regulations by the European Commission and the UN ECE Trans/WP.29

This approach is …



Automated Driving Summary

21

Technology plays a crucial roleBrain is everywhere … vehicle, cloud, infrastructure

ComplexityCollaboration, partnerships & shared system development are key success factors

LegalComprehensive legal framework required to establish clear AD parameters

Concept & SolutionsClear separation of L1-L2, L3, L4-L5 different user groups, different needs


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