Trends in Quantity of Political Advertising

Trends in Quantity of Political Advertising

By Alyssa Ray

Has Political Advertising Has Political Advertising Increased or Decreased in Increased or Decreased in

Recent Years?Recent Years?

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1998 2000

By the Numbers….Congressional Elections

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1998 2000

Number of Ads Number of Times Aired

*Source: Buying Time 2000 Executive Summary

By the Numbers…Independent Groups’ Ads

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1998 20000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 2000

Number of Ads Cost (In Millions)

*Source: Buying Time 2000 Executive Summary

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

2000 2002 2004

Presidential

Senate

House

Governors

Local

Issues

Cost (In

Millio

ns)

Year

Total Spending on Political Media, by Candidates

Total Presidential Senate House Governors Local Issues

2004 $2,681 $990 $525 $556 $149 $213 $248

2002 $1,617 $0 $278 $293 $752 $141 $154

2000 $1,205 $305 $301 $258 $92 $119 $129

*Source: PQ Media

Trend FactorsTrend Factors

1. Quantity of Advertising Sources

2. Start of Campaign

3. Quantity of Funds

4. Number of Candidates

5. Interest of Voters

Forms of AdvertisingForms of Advertising

Hypothesis 1: The more media outlets available for candidates, the more ads will be produced.

Forms of Political Forms of Political AdvertisingAdvertising

Forms of Political Forms of Political AdvertisingAdvertising

Newspaper/Print Media: (1704) Newspaper Ads, Flyers, Pamphlets.

Radio: (1924) Campaign Speeches, Debates, Ads.

Television: (1952) Spot Ads, Speeches, Debates, News Reports.

Internet: (1990’s) Campaign Ads, YouTube, Websites, Speeches, Debates.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2002 2004

Broadcast TV

Direct Mail

PR/Promo

Radio

Cable

Newspapers

Online

Outdoor

Magazines

Cost (in

m

illion

s)

Year

Total Spending on Political Media, by Medium

Total (millions)

Broadcast TV

Direct Mail PR/Promo Radio Cable Newspapers Online Outdoor Magazines

2004 $2,681 $1,505 $564 $244 $189 $79 $58 $25 $18 $2

2002 $1,617 $912 $335 $128 $155 $35 $34 $5 $15 $1

2000 $1,205 $676 $242 $97 $128 $19 $26 $3 $13 $1

*Source: PQ Media

Start of CampaignStart of Campaign

Hypothesis 2: The earlier the entrance into the campaign, the more ads will be produced.

2000 Election vs. 2008 Election

2000 Election vs. 2008 Election

20001) George W. Bush (R): 821 days before election

2000 Total Spending: $865.4 million, 71.8% of total expenses

20081) Duncan Hunter (R): 625 days before election

2) Mitt Romney (R): 622 days before election– Ads: 10,000 thus far: record breaking for one candidate

2008 Total Spending?

*Source: Nielsen Market Research, PQ Media, TNS Media Intelligence

2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TELEVISION & RADIO SPOTSThe Number of Television & Local Radio Ads (TV through-6/10/07, Radio 5/27/07)

CandidateTV

TotalNat'l Cable

Local Radio

Local TV

Total

IA NH VT SC FL GA MI DC CA

Mitt Romney (R) 4,549 297 378 4,252 2,036 788 572 386 319 96 55 - -

Bill Richardson (D) 2,232 - - 2,232 1,931 301 - - - - - - -

Chris Dodd (D) 1,664 4 - 1,660 1,280 380 - - - - - - -

John Edwards (D) 68 - - 68 45 - - - - - - 23 -

Duncan Hunter (R) 34 - - 34 - - - 22 - - -   12

Rudolph Giuliani (R) - - 642 - - - - - - - - - -

Total 8,547 301 1,020 8,246 5,292 1,469 572 408 319 96 55 23 12

*Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus

Quantity of FundsQuantity of Funds

Hypothesis 3: The more money a candidate raises, the more ads will be produced.

Quantity of Funds

Democratic Candidates

Candidate          Home State          Q2 Raised          Q2 Spent          Total Raised          Total Spent          Cash on Hand          Debts         

Clinton, Hillary NY$27,021,358

$12,769,306

$63,075,927

$17,849,095

$45,226,832

$3,026,522

Obama, Barack IL$33,120,440

$16,042,388

$58,912,520

$22,648,832

$36,263,688

$922,848

Edwards, John NC$9,097,495

$6,485,422

$23,129,158

$9,785,203

$13,343,954

$333,586

Richardson, Bill NM$7,090,278

$4,983,067

$13,339,633

$6,209,949

$7,129,684

$61,104

Dodd, Chris CT$3,280,384

$4,384,580

$12,076,091

$5,697,820

$6,378,271

$0

Biden, Joe DE$2,451,180

$2,517,654

$6,461,745

$3,691,828

$2,772,442

$0

Kucinich, Dennis OH$757,035

$707,653

$1,117,566

$902,355

$213,269

$0

Gravel, Mike AK$130,510

$99,866

$238,745

$207,604

$31,141

$64,716

Democratic Fundraising 2008

Republican Candidates

Candidate          Home State          Q2 Raised          Q2 Spent          Raised          Spent          Cash on Hand          Debts         

Romney, Mitt MA$20,997,715

$20,739,814

$44,432,350

$32,310,796

$12,121,554

$8,945,028

Giuliani, Rudy NY$17,599,292

$11,222,806

$35,629,265

$17,303,045

$18,326,220

$0

McCain, John AZ$11,591,044

$13,071,657

$25,328,694

$21,926,631

$3,224,428

$1,783,523

Brownback, Sam KS$1,425,767

$1,798,493

$3,321,965

$2,861,729

$460,236

$0

Paul, Ron TX$2,369,453

$539,517

$3,009,997

$655,142

$2,354,855

$0

Tancredo, Tom CO$1,466,188

$1,474,791

$2,807,879

$2,209,606

$598,451

$15,000

Hunter, Duncan CA$814,417

$874,042

$1,352,941

$1,140,014

$212,927

$0

Huckabee, Mike AR$765,873

$702,622

$1,310,753

$873,584

$437,169

$31,045

Thompson, Tommy WI$486,555

$504,631

$890,398

$768,750

$121,648

$127,434

Republican Fundraising 2008

RegulationsRegulations

1. Source Requirements: Who May Fund?• Politicians’ funding, government, donations from

individuals, interest groups, etc.• Online (YouTube)?

2. Disclosure Requirements: Of Advertisers• Explain to FEC (Federal Election Commission)

3. Sponsorship Requirements: What Advertisers Can Say• Self-Promotion vs. Candidate Focus

(1934) “Equal Time Provision” of Communication Act

Federal Regulations on $ Given to Candidates

Number of CandidatesNumber of Candidates

Hypothesis 4:

The more serious candidates in the race, the more ads will be run.

Number of CandidatesNumber of Candidates Increase in number of serious candidates running for office

(Includes Republicans, Democrats, Green, Independent, Libertarian, etc.)

– 1980: 10– 1984: 11– 1988: 19– 1992: 14– 1996: 14– 2000: 15– 2004: 17– 2008: 47* 0

5101520253035404550

1980 1988 1996 2004

Candidates

1984 1990 2000 2008

*Source: politics1.com informtaion

Interest of VotersInterest of Voters

Hypothesis 5:

Due to the increase in candidates (Hypothesis 4), more ads are run in order to grab viewers attention.

Interest of VotersInterest of Voters

Candidate Awareness: 3-4 ads weekly Messages Retained:

– Empty Field: 6-7 ads weekly

– Crowded Field: 10-12 ads weekly

*Source: J.M. Hutchens The Manship School guide to Political Communicating

ConclusionsConclusions

1998-2000: Increase in money, increase in ads.

2000-present: HUGE increase in money spent on ads, but percentage wise, less focus on the quantity of ads themselves.

IN GENERAL: Increase in money!