trends in travel behavior and transit ridership · pdf file 2018-04-02 · trends in...

Click here to load reader

Post on 01-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • 3/29/2018

    1

    Trends in Travel Behavior and   Transit Ridership

    CUTR Webinar Thursday, March 29, 2018 Steven E. Polzin, PhD.

    Outline

     What is going on with travel  Trends and underlying causes of transit ridership decline  Implications going forward

  • 3/29/2018

    2

    U.S. Context and Travel Trends 2015/2014 2016/2015 2017/2016 YTD Months Source

    U.S. Population 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% - Census

    Total Employment 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 12 BLS

    Real GDP 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 12 BEA (1st est.)

    Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.1% 12 EIA

    Registered Cars and Light Trucks 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 12 proj. Hedges Co.

    Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.8% 12 BEA

    Count of Zero-Vehicle Households -1.0% -1.9% Census

    VMT 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 12 FHWA

    Public Transit Ridership -1.0% to -2.2% -2.3% to -1.6% -3.1, -2.6% 9, 12 APTA and NTD

    Amtrak Ridership (FY) -0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12 Amtrak

    Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 11 USDOT, BTS

    As of March 27, 2018

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    Ja n-

    92 N

    ov -9

    2 S ep

    -9 3

    Ju l-

    94 M

    ay -9

    5 M

    ar -9

    6 Ja

    n- 97

    N ov

    -9 7

    S ep

    -9 8

    Ju l-

    99 M

    ay -0

    0 M

    ar -0

    1 Ja

    n- 02

    N ov

    -0 2

    S ep

    -0 3

    Ju l-

    04 M

    ay -0

    5 M

    ar -0

    6 Ja

    n- 07

    N ov

    -0 7

    S ep

    -0 8

    Ju l-

    09 M

    ay -1

    0 M

    ar -1

    1 Ja

    n- 12

    N ov

    -1 2

    S ep

    -1 3

    Ju l-

    14 M

    ay -1

    5 M

    ar -1

    6 Ja

    n- 17

    N ov

    -1 7

    V M

    T pe

    r C ap

    ita ,

    A nn

    ua l

    Ve hi

    cl e-

    D is

    ta nc

    e Tr

    av el

    ed (

    B ill

    io n

    M ile

    s)

    Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billions)

    VMT per Capita

    National VMT and VMT per Capita Trend,  Moving 12‐Month Total, 1992–2016

    8 year reprieve

  • 3/29/2018

    3

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    19 17

    19 21

    19 25

    19 29

    19 33

    19 37

    19 41

    19 45

    19 49

    19 53

    19 57

    19 61

    19 65

    19 69

    19 73

    19 77

    19 81

    19 85

    19 89

    19 93

    19 97

    20 01

    20 05

    20 09

    20 13

    20 17

    A nn

    ua l T

    ri ps

    p er

    C ap

    ita

    A nn

    ua l R

    id er

    sh ip

    , B ill

    io ns

    Rides, Billion Per Capita Rides

    U.S. Transit Ridership and Ridership per Capita

    16.0

    17.0

    18.0

    19.0

    20.0

    21.0

    22.0

    23.0

    24.0

    6.0

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    8.5

    9.0

    JA N

    08 M

    A Y

    08 S

    E P

    08 JA

    N 09

    M A

    Y 09

    S E

    P 09

    JA N

    10 M

    A Y

    10 S

    E P

    10 JA

    N 11

    M A

    Y 11

    S E

    P 11

    JA N

    12 M

    A Y

    12 S

    E P

    12 JA

    N 13

    M A

    Y 13

    S E

    P 13

    JA N

    14 M

    A Y

    14 S

    E P

    14 JA

    N 15

    M A

    Y 15

    S E

    P 15

    JA N

    16 M

    A Y

    16 S

    E P

    16 JA

    N 17

    M A

    Y 17

    S E

    P 17

    Fl or

    id a

    R id

    er sh

    ip , M

    ill io

    ns

    U S

    R id

    er sh

    ip , H

    un dr

    ed s

    of M

    ill io

    ns

    US Florida

    U.S. Transit Ridership, Fixed Route, 12‐Month Rolling Average

  • 3/29/2018

    4

    Top 40 UZAs by 2016 Transit Ridership, 2014‐2016 Change (Millions)

    Top 40 urban  areas make  up 83.9% of  U.S. ridership  decline from  2014‐2016

    Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

    Miami‐Dade  Transit

    ‐14.653, ‐13.4%

    Broward County  Transit

    ‐6.302, ‐16.6%

    Central FL RTA ‐3.011, ‐10.4%

    Hillsborough Area  Rapid Transit ‐1.081, ‐7.2%

    Jacksonville Transportation  Authority

    +0.491, +4.0%

    Pinellas Suncoast Transportation 

    Authority ‐1.826, ‐12.9%

    PalmTran ‐2.479, ‐20.8%

    Gainesville RTS ‐1.272, ‐11.8%

    South Florida RTA ‐0.150 ‐1.5%

    City of Tallahassee ‐0.650, ‐15.0%

    Top 10 Agencies in Florida by 2016 Transit Ridership, 2013‐2016 Change (Millions)

    Top 10 agencies  make up 87.7% 

    of Florida  ridership from  2013‐2016

    Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

  • 3/29/2018

    5

    9.0%

    5.1%

    2.7%

    0.6%

    1.2%

    5.0%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    M od

    e  Sh ar e,  U su al  C om

    m ut e

      Car, truck, or van ‐‐ carpooled   Public transportation

      Walked

      Bicycle

      Other means

      Worked at home

    Declining Carpooling and Growing Work‐at‐Home Dominate Trends  

    10 year trend –  2017‐2007

    3‐year trend –  2017‐2014

    1 year trend –  2017‐2016

    Trending – Q4 2017 ‐  Q4 2016

    All bus ‐15.2% ‐11.3% ‐5.1% ‐3.4% Light rail (LR & SR) 20.7% 1.4% ‐0.8% ‐3.6% Commuter rail 5.6% ‐1.3% ‐1.7% ‐1.3% Heavy rail 9.8% ‐3.8% ‐0.4% 1.2% Demand Response (DR‐DT) 10.4% ‐1.3% ‐0.5% 0.2%

    Total ‐3.4% ‐7.1% ‐2.8% ‐1.4%

    All bus ‐3.5% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% Light rail 54.9% 17.4% 6.8% 5.2% Commuter rail 16.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% Heavy rail 7.8% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% Demand Response 15.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8%

    Total 4.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7%

    N at io na

    l

    Se rv ic e  m ile

    s

    Transit Ridership and Service Summary ‐ National

  • 3/29/2018

    6

    Transit Ridership and Service Summary ‐ Florida

    All bus ‐18.4% ‐20.5% ‐7.6% ‐5.6% Light rail ‐50.0% 2.5% ‐4.1% 2.7% Commuter rail 22.4% ‐2.4% 2.0% 6.5% Heavy rail 15.3% ‐9.4% ‐6.7% ‐3.8% Demand Response ‐0.2% 6.6% 4.3% 6.4%

    Total ‐15.1% ‐18.6% ‐7.0% ‐4.9%

    All bus ‐4.6% 1.2% ‐0.8% ‐1.9% Light rail ‐20.2% 2.4% ‐1.7% ‐16.6% Commuter rail 270.2% 1.9% 1.1% 7.7% Heavy rail ‐9.0% ‐7.5% ‐8.9% ‐18.8% Demand Response 9.1% 17.1% 5.8% 5.7%

    Total 0.8% 5.7% 1.0% 5.7%

    Fl or id a

    Ri de

    rs hi p

    Se rv ic e  m ile

    s

    10 year trend –  2017‐2007

    3‐year trend –  2017‐2014

    1 year trend –  2017‐2016

    Trending – Q4 2017 ‐  Q4 2016

    Where are We Headed?

    2012‐2014

    2018 

    ?

    Transit ridership near 60 year high

    Millennials are different

    We passed peak VMT

    We are urbanizing and  CBD’s are thriving

    Developers embrace  transit

    Strong referendum  success

    TNC’s address first‐ mile/last‐mile issue

    2015‐2017

    Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs

    Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3rd year of decline

    VMT and VMT/Capita continue growth

    Growth and migration resume historic patterns

    System conditions, reliability, health care  costs, etc. plague transit operators

    How much will that subway cost?  When  will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that  new streetcar doing? 

    TNC’s can cannibalize  transit ridership

    Why do we need  transit with CAV?

  • 3/29/2018

    7

    Framework for Understanding Changes in  Transit Ridership

    1.  Demographics and Land‐Use

    3.  Competition

    2.  Transit Service Quality

    How much of  ridership’s  change is  explained by  these factors?

    Demand

    Supply

    Framework  used in Metro  analysis

    Considers  agency control

  • 3/29/2018

    8

    Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership

    1. Demographics and Land‐Use  Age  Geographic Distribution across Metros – Migration and Growth Trends, International Migration 

    Trends  Geographic Distribution within Metros (within proximity of service?/gentrification)  Income  Licensure Levels  Auto Ownership  Poverty Levels (SNAP enrollment)  Unemployment  Reduced College Student Ridership (APTA report)  Core Values

    3.2 3.5

    4.0 4