trends in travel behavior and transit ridership · pdf file 2018-04-02 · trends in...

3/29/2018

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Trends in Travel Behavior and   Transit Ridership

CUTR Webinar Thursday, March 29, 2018 Steven E. Polzin, PhD.

Outline

 What is going on with travel  Trends and underlying causes of transit ridership decline  Implications going forward

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U.S. Context and Travel Trends 2015/2014 2016/2015 2017/2016 YTD Months Source

U.S. Population 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% - Census

Total Employment 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 12 BLS

Real GDP 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 12 BEA (1st est.)

Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.1% 12 EIA

Registered Cars and Light Trucks 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 12 proj. Hedges Co.

Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.8% 12 BEA

Count of Zero-Vehicle Households -1.0% -1.9% Census

VMT 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 12 FHWA

Public Transit Ridership -1.0% to -2.2% -2.3% to -1.6% -3.1, -2.6% 9, 12 APTA and NTD

Amtrak Ridership (FY) -0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12 Amtrak

Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 11 USDOT, BTS

As of March 27, 2018

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Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billions)

VMT per Capita

National VMT and VMT per Capita Trend,  Moving 12‐Month Total, 1992–2016

8 year reprieve

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U.S. Transit Ridership, Fixed Route, 12‐Month Rolling Average

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Top 40 UZAs by 2016 Transit Ridership, 2014‐2016 Change (Millions)

Top 40 urban  areas make  up 83.9% of  U.S. ridership  decline from  2014‐2016

Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

Miami‐Dade  Transit

‐14.653, ‐13.4%

Broward County  Transit

‐6.302, ‐16.6%

Central FL RTA ‐3.011, ‐10.4%

Hillsborough Area  Rapid Transit ‐1.081, ‐7.2%

Jacksonville Transportation  Authority

+0.491, +4.0%

Pinellas Suncoast Transportation 

Authority ‐1.826, ‐12.9%

PalmTran ‐2.479, ‐20.8%

Gainesville RTS ‐1.272, ‐11.8%

South Florida RTA ‐0.150 ‐1.5%

City of Tallahassee ‐0.650, ‐15.0%

Top 10 Agencies in Florida by 2016 Transit Ridership, 2013‐2016 Change (Millions)

Top 10 agencies  make up 87.7% 

of Florida  ridership from  2013‐2016

Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

3/29/2018

5

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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  Car, truck, or van ‐‐ carpooled   Public transportation

  Walked

  Bicycle

  Other means

  Worked at home

Declining Carpooling and Growing Work‐at‐Home Dominate Trends  

10 year trend –  2017‐2007

3‐year trend –  2017‐2014

1 year trend –  2017‐2016

Trending – Q4 2017 ‐  Q4 2016

All bus ‐15.2% ‐11.3% ‐5.1% ‐3.4% Light rail (LR & SR) 20.7% 1.4% ‐0.8% ‐3.6% Commuter rail 5.6% ‐1.3% ‐1.7% ‐1.3% Heavy rail 9.8% ‐3.8% ‐0.4% 1.2% Demand Response (DR‐DT) 10.4% ‐1.3% ‐0.5% 0.2%

Total ‐3.4% ‐7.1% ‐2.8% ‐1.4%

All bus ‐3.5% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% Light rail 54.9% 17.4% 6.8% 5.2% Commuter rail 16.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% Heavy rail 7.8% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% Demand Response 15.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8%

Total 4.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7%

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Transit Ridership and Service Summary ‐ National

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Transit Ridership and Service Summary ‐ Florida

All bus ‐18.4% ‐20.5% ‐7.6% ‐5.6% Light rail ‐50.0% 2.5% ‐4.1% 2.7% Commuter rail 22.4% ‐2.4% 2.0% 6.5% Heavy rail 15.3% ‐9.4% ‐6.7% ‐3.8% Demand Response ‐0.2% 6.6% 4.3% 6.4%

Total ‐15.1% ‐18.6% ‐7.0% ‐4.9%

All bus ‐4.6% 1.2% ‐0.8% ‐1.9% Light rail ‐20.2% 2.4% ‐1.7% ‐16.6% Commuter rail 270.2% 1.9% 1.1% 7.7% Heavy rail ‐9.0% ‐7.5% ‐8.9% ‐18.8% Demand Response 9.1% 17.1% 5.8% 5.7%

Total 0.8% 5.7% 1.0% 5.7%

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10 year trend –  2017‐2007

3‐year trend –  2017‐2014

1 year trend –  2017‐2016

Trending – Q4 2017 ‐  Q4 2016

Where are We Headed?

2012‐2014

2018 

?

Transit ridership near 60 year high

Millennials are different

We passed peak VMT

We are urbanizing and  CBD’s are thriving

Developers embrace  transit

Strong referendum  success

TNC’s address first‐ mile/last‐mile issue

2015‐2017

Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs

Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3rd year of decline

VMT and VMT/Capita continue growth

Growth and migration resume historic patterns

System conditions, reliability, health care  costs, etc. plague transit operators

How much will that subway cost?  When  will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that  new streetcar doing? 

TNC’s can cannibalize  transit ridership

Why do we need  transit with CAV?

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Framework for Understanding Changes in  Transit Ridership

1.  Demographics and Land‐Use

3.  Competition

2.  Transit Service Quality

How much of  ridership’s  change is  explained by  these factors?

Demand

Supply

Framework  used in Metro  analysis

Considers  agency control

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Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership

1. Demographics and Land‐Use  Age  Geographic Distribution across Metros – Migration and Growth Trends, International Migration 

Trends  Geographic Distribution within Metros (within proximity of service?/gentrification)  Income  Licensure Levels  Auto Ownership  Poverty Levels (SNAP enrollment)  Unemployment  Reduced College Student Ridership (APTA report)  Core Values

3.2 3.5

4.0 4