Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’sNational Agroclimate Information Service’s

Drought Monitoring

Trevor HadwenAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada,

Agri-Environmental Services Branch (AESB)National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS)

Global Drought Assessment Workshop Asheville, NC, April 22, 2010

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• Depending on:– A regions normal climate– Specific needs of various sectors

• Main categories of drought are:– meteorological – agricultural– hydrological– socioeconomic

Drought can mean many different things to different people

The availability of water depends largely on rainfall, (but) the concept of drought cannot be divorced from the use to which

water is put. Gibbs & Maher (1967):

Most drought indices we use measure

meteorological drought

Drought – more than just lack of rainfallDrought – more than just lack of rainfall

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Drought Watch Website

www.agr.gc.ca/drought

Goals:• To provide timely information of the impacts

of climatic variability on water supply and agriculture in Canada.

• To promote practices that reduce drought vulnerability and improve management during a drought.

The site includes• Current Condition and Historical Maps • Climate Profiles• Drought Management Information• Federal Programs• Provincial Links• Related Websites• Farm Stress Information

Products include:

•Seasonal and annual Products for Moisture indicators•Rolling Percent of Average Precipitation

- 7-day out to 5 years•Rolling Accumulated

- 7-day out to 5 years•Dry Spell indicator

- 7, 14, 30, 60… days with < 0.5 mm - Consecutive days with < 0.5 mm

•Departure from Normal Precipitation (Rolling) - Set time periods (7-day out to 5 years) - Seasonal

•Temperature - Max/Min temperature over 7-days - Heat waves / Dry spells

•Growing Degree Days (Base 0, 5, 10, and 15)•Corn Heat Units

Over 500 maps produced daily

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National and Regional Products

Canada is broken down into 5 regions

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Time Specific Products

DecilesPercent of normalAccumulated PPTDeparture from average

• Agricultural year• Growing season• Winter season

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National Drought Model: SPI

Calculated Monthly

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National Drought Model: Palmer Drought Severity Index

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National Drought Model: Soil Moisture

The Drought model uses a simplified water balance approach (modified VSMB)

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NDVI Imagery

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MODIS - Remote Sensing Products: Weekly

MODIS NDVI 7-day composites

Advantages of the MODIS System•National Coverage•Better resolution•Better analytical features

•Data is free of charge from USGS•Data back-up system is incorporated•Opportunity to use other Indices

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SSMI – Special Sensor Microwave Imager

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Prairie Drought Impact Monitoring

On-Farm Surface Water Supply and Forage Monitoring Program

Forage Production

Forage Supplies

On-Farm Surface Water Supplies

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Online Data Entry From Known Users

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Quantifying the Impacts of Drought

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Quantifying the Impacts of DroughtForage Production Potential

Percent of Prairie Agricultural Area

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May 1 J un 1 J ul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1

Forage Production Potential Percent of Farms

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May 1 J un 1 J ul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1

Forage Production Potential Percent of Prairie Agricultural Area

18%

57%

25%

Forage Production Potential Percent of Cattle

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May 1 J un 1 J ul 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Nov 1

Forage Production Potential Percent of Cattle

27%

54%

19%

Forage Production Potential Percent of Farms

54%

17%29%

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Tax Deferral for Drought Induced Livestock Sales

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Monitoring Outside the Agricultural Extent

• Lack of station data for northern regions.

• Lack of understanding of drought assessment and drought issues in northern areas, especially north of the treeline.

• Research is required on how to address these issues.

• First priority is to improve monitoring in the boreal regions.

• We need to develop relative indicators for northern regions. CFS currently uses Absolute indicators.

• Remove sensing may be able to assist in some regions.

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International Collaboration and Drought Analysis

• A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national/continental drought map

• Captures the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity), spatial extent and impacts

Thank You

Trevor Hadwentrevor.hadwen@agr.gc.ca

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Active Hydrometric Stations

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Challenges for Drought Monitoring in Canada

• Canadian environment is complex and drought indices need to be utilized in a way that reflects this.

• Increased need for timeliness and accuracy in determining extent location and severity of climate impacts.

• Quality and quantity of data is incomplete. Data density and length of record are both significant challenges.

• Uncertainties exist in index calculation, mapping and interpretation. Testing and calibration should be encouraged

• Winter (Snow) – Hard to measure, it tends to move around before the moisture is accessible (Blowing, runoff, sublimation). Indices do not account for this.