Past and Future Climate Change for Kaslo and Regional District of

Central Kootenay Area D

CRD Climate Change Adaptation 10115 January 2010

Videoconference: University of Victoria - Nelson

Trevor MurdockClimate ScientistPacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumUniversity of Victoria

1. About PCIC

2. Relevant reports

3. Recent questions / topics

4. Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

Outline

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortiumwww.PacificClimate.org

• Launched 2005

• Applications of research to management, planning, and decision-making

• Partner with research labs, impacts researchers and regional stakeholders

• Sister organization to Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions www.pics.uvic.ca

4

PCIC Vision and Scope *

A vision for a consortium emerged … to

stimulate the collaboration of government,

academia and industry to reduce

vulnerability to extreme weather events,

climate variability and the threat of global

change.   The consortium for climate

impacts will bridge the gap between climate

research and climate applications, and will

make practical information available to

government, industry, and the public.

* - Organizational Workshop (May, 2005)

Starting the Dialogue

• Climate science for layperson• Recommendations on adaptation

process• Impacts and potential adaptations

by sector:– Water supply– Ground transportation– Community infrastructure & safety– Public health– Hydro-electric power– Forestry– Tourism and recreation– Agriculture

Preliminary Analysis of Climate Variability and Change in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: Focus on Water

Resources

• Climate concepts, terms, and measurement

• Climate change in the Basin – analysis of past trends and future projections

• Climate impacts on water resources

Analytical SummaryPast Trends and Future Projections for the Canadian

Columbia Basin: focus on Kimberley and Elkford

• Regional climatology and trends

• Regional hydroclimatology• Future projections

– GCMs, RCMs, high resolution– Annual Temperature &

Precipitation– Seasonal Temperature &

Precipitation– Annual precipitation as snow– Growing degree days– Tree species suitability

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: A Literature Review

• Water resources and hydrology

• Energy, flood control, and transboundary

• Biodiversity and forests• Fisheries• Agriculture• Infrastructure & transportation• Tourism and recreation• Human health• Recommendations for

adaptation planning

1. About PCIC

2. Relevant reports

3. Recent questions / topics

4. Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

Outline

Initial priorities: Oct 2009

– Water – Socio-economic– Transportation– Infrastructure and Utilities– Agriculture – Interface fire

– Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities

Recent questions / topics

1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover? 

3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.)

4) Glacier impacts

5) Extremes and local weather station information

• Increases of 500 – 100 Growing Degree Days at most locations

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

• VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model – University of Washington and PCIC (new results in progress)

• Results at Duncan – increasing spring runoff, decreasing summer

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

• Less change than most Columbia Basin watersheds but still increased streamflow in spring, decreased in summer

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

• WaSim (Water Simulation model) at Donald: high resolution hydrological model – in development at PCIC

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

• Online subscription

• Includes basic climate change scenarios

• Ted van der Gulik, BC Ministry of Ag and Lands

http://bc.waterbalance.ca/

1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

• Frequency of occurrence of high risk to water supply depends on climate model and emissions scenario – Denise Neilsen, Ag Canada

• Individual policies assist with meeting future demand but only combined policies meet full target – Tina Neal, CAS & Stewart Cohen, Env Canada

2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and

what kind of time periods would that cover? 

• Could be determined by vulnerability assessment

• Some suggestions from PCIC hydrologists– Low flows– High flows– Summer evapotranspiration / soil moisture– Seasonal / monthly vs. annual – Need to look at wet season compared with dry season

summer runoff compared to snowpack

3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the

source? In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed.

• Five mile creek: El Nino earlier and weaker spring peaks than La Nina

Annual and Decadal Annual and Decadal VariabilityVariability are are superimposed onsuperimposed on Climate CClimate Change Trendshange Trends

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

Short term : (years Short term : (years to decadal) rises to decadal) rises and falls about the and falls about the trend line (ENSO)trend line (ENSO)

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Long Term Trends or Long Term Trends or major shifts in major shifts in climate: (centuries)climate: (centuries)

NormalsNormalsClimate OscillationsClimate Oscillations

Multi-decadal Multi-decadal oscillations in oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)PDO, NAO)

NormalsNormals

• 0-degree isotherm crude approximation of glaciated areas – almost vanishes by 2050s• See http://wc2n.unbc.ca/ for more glacier analysis

4) Glacier impacts

5) Extremes and local weather station information

Analysis of past and future extremes is just beginning.

Rainfall• prec90p 90th percentile of rain day amounts (mm/day)• 644R5d Greatest 5-day total rainfall• 646SDII Simple Daily Intensity (rain per rain day)• 641CDD Max no. consecutive dry days• 691R90T % of total rainfall from events > long-term P90• 692R90N No. of events > long-term 90th percentile of rain days

Temperature• tmax90p Tmax 90th percentile• tmin10p Tmin 10th percentile• 125Fd Number of frost days (Tmin < 0 deg C)• 144HWDI Heat Wave Duration

5) Extremes and local weather station information

Kootenay national park

1. About PCIC

2. Relevant reports

3. Recent questions / topics

4. Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

Outline

Annual and Decadal Annual and Decadal VariabilityVariability are are superimposed onsuperimposed on Climate CClimate Change Trendshange Trends

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

Short term : (years Short term : (years to decadal) rises to decadal) rises and falls about the and falls about the trend line (ENSO)trend line (ENSO)

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Long Term Trends or Long Term Trends or major shifts in major shifts in climate: (centuries)climate: (centuries)

NormalsNormalsClimate OscillationsClimate Oscillations

Multi-decadal Multi-decadal oscillations in oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)PDO, NAO)

NormalsNormals

Baseline Climatology

El Nino / La Nina

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

-5 stations

- regional average

- computed linear trend and 95% confidence intervals

- Mann Kendall covariance analysis between stations: mean annual temperature 0.86 total annual precipitation 0.46 total annual rain 0.40 snow 0.55

Creston

Revelstoke

Cranbrook

Kaslo

Golden

Trend Analysis

Elevations: Cranbrook 918 m Golden 785 m Creston 597 m Kaslo 591 m Revelstoke 443 m

1913-2002 Temperature Record

Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)Murdock)

1913-2002 Temperature Trends and confidence intervals

Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)Murdock)

50-yr Temperature Trends

Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)Murdock)

30-yr Temperature Trends

Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)Murdock)

1913-2002 Precipitation Record

Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)Murdock)

What are Global Climate Models?

• GCMs compute global weather patterns several times per day projected over the next century

• GCMs are the“…only credible tools currently available for

simulating the physical processes that

determine global climate...” [IPCC]

Source: David Viner, UK Climate Impacts LINK ProjectSource: David Viner, UK Climate Impacts LINK Project

Adaptation required even with mitigationAdaptation required even with mitigationWarming large compared to historical variabilityWarming large compared to historical variability

36

GCM RCM

GCM RCM

Climate change impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin

1961-1990 2020s

Climate change impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin

1961-1990 2080s

Initial priorities: Oct 2009

– Water – Socio-economic– Transportation– Infrastructure and Utilities– Agriculture – Interface fire

– Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities

Recent questions

1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?  

2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover? 

3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.)

4) Glacier impacts

5) Extremes and local weather station information

Thank you

For more information www.PacificClimate.org