tri county economic forecast 2007 bmu january 11, 2007
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Tri County Economic Forecast 2007
BMUJanuary 11, 2007
Outline
• Historic Economic Performance
• Economic Outlook 2007
• A look at factors affecting Tri-County Regional Growth
Population Density, 2004
Tri-County Total Population
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000 ButteGlennTehamaTri-County
Tri-County Net Population Change
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 ButteGlennTehama
Butte County Components of Change
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000Births
DeathsNatural increase
Net migrationTotal change
Tri-County Population Growth Conclusions
• Net migration drives growth
• In-migration is starting to decline driven by– Bay area jobs recovery
– Delayed migration of retirees & urban refugees
• Housing prices affecting location w/in Tri-County
Median Age, 2004
Tri-County Median Age
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
ButteGlennTehamaCalifornia
Tri-County Labor Force 2004
Unemployment, 2004
Tri-County Unemployment Rate
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00% California
Butte
Glenn
Tehama
Butte County Employment
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Farm
Goods Producing
Service Providing
Government
Butte County Goods-Producing Employment
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500 Natural Res., Mining & Constr.
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Butte County Service Employment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
Trade, Transp. & Utilities Information Financial Activities
Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & HospitalityOther Services Fed Gov State Gov
Local Gov
Tri-County Retail Spending
Retail Trade Growth
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
California
Butte
Glenn
Tehama
Retail Trade by Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
F 2007
Apparel & Accessories
Automobile Dealers
Building Materials,Hardware
Eating & Drinking Places
Food Stores
Furniture, HomeFurnishings
Gasoline Service Stations
General Merchandise
Miscellaneous RetailStores
Poverty
Families below Poverty, 2004
Individuals in Poverty
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%
Butte Glenn Tehama
1990
2000
Families in Poverty
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Butte Glenn Tehama
1990
2000
Tri-County Agriculture Production
Butte CountyAgricultural Production
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000Rice , M illing Almonds
Walnuts , English Plums, Drie d
Nurse ry Products Pe ache s , Clingstone
Cattle and Calve s Fie ld Crops
Rice , Se e d
Average Disposable Income, 2004
2007 Economic OutlookSummary
• Tri-County economies expecting very slow growth over next year– Bay Area recovery drawing job growth – fewer
expansions or relocations due to tight skilled job market
• Poverty & low educational attainment continues to affect select pockets