trim daily · 2019. 11. 4. · rang, sulawesi, yogyakarta, central java, east java and south...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

It is likely to be a week of consolidation in the market. Some global positive

news i.e. Greece plans to pay some of its debt to IMF. We continue to see

plenty of interest in GGRM, MAPI, cement. These are stocks/sectors that

have underperformed the market, but at current prices likely to have priced

in the negatives (in the case of MAPI, a corp action helped improve outlook).

Construction sector: Govt plans to appoint WIKA, WSKT, and JSMR to help

build Sumatra toll road. Could potentially be positive for WIKA and WSKT if

only appointed as contractors (not minority investors).

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

April 6, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 10 poin or 0.2% to 5456 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by misc industry, trade, and property construction. Total transaction value was R5.5tr. IDX recorded RP269bn net buy by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 5415-5490 range.

Technical Market View

The rise of U.S. jobs data for the month of March were much below expecta-tion, 126k vs 245k (and 295k in Feb). Meanwhile, unemployment rate main-tain at 5.5% for March, inline with market expectation.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 5,456.4

Global Indices

Reksa Dana Trimegah Asset Management

Dual Listing (NYSE) Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

43.5 14,166 0.25 0.6TLKM

Change -0.19%

Transaction Volume (m) 5,867

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 5,508

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 5,501

Market 2015 P/E (x) 14.3

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,763.2 65.1 0.4

Nasdaq 4,886.9 6.7 0.1

Nikkei 19,435.1 400.2 2.1

ST Times 3,453.8 6.7 0.2

FTSE 6,833.5 24.0 0.4

Hang Seng 25,275.6 192.9 0.8

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 9,654.7 -42 -0.4

Trim Kapital + 3,468.9 -19.7 -0.6

Trim Syariah SHM 1,706.7 -6.9 -0.4

Tram Consumption +1,555.1 -5.1 -0.3

Trim Komb 2 2,098.0 -9.2 -0.4

Trim Syariah B 2,425.6 -9.5 -0.4

Trim Dana Stabil 2,218.9 -0.3 -0.0

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,781.2 0.0 0.0

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.1

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.0

Tram Strategic Fund 1,193.0 1.2 0.1

Trim Kas 2 1,151.2 0.2 0.0

Chg %

USD IDR 13,020 -28 -0.2

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.39 -0.0 -0.3

10 yr US govt bond (%) 1.8 -0.04 -2.0

Spread (%) 5.56 0.02 1.8

EIDO 27.6 -0.1 -0.4

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 494 21 4

Stock Price Rating Reason

GGRM 52000 Buy

GGRM formed a white long candle with in-creasing transaction volumes, indicates fur-ther upward movement for today with sup-port and resistance levels of 51650-52400

INTP 22150 Buy INTP remains strong with potential upside in the range of 21700-22525 for today

ADRO 980 Buy We expect ADRO to form a bullish continua-tion formation with today’s trading range at 960-1000

NIRO 232 Buy MACD indicates positive signal of a potential upside for NIRO. NIRO’s today trading range is around 222-239

CPRO 99 Buy Buy at level 99 and Sell at level 105

BBCA 14800 Sell BBCA remains on a long term bullish pattern. We expect the stock to remain weak today within the range of 14650-15100

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

Banking: risks in banking industry are increasing,

says LPS

The Indonesia Deposits Insurance Corporation (LPS)

assessed the increasing risks in Indonesian banking

industry as reflected by 53bps increased in Banking

Stability Index to 100.63. The index increase is particu-

larly caused by the increased in these subindexes: credit

pressure (CP), interbank pressure (IP), and market pres-

sure (MP) which increased by 46bps, 112bps, and 36bps

respectively. However, the BSI level is still within the

normal range based on the Crisis Management Protocol

(CMP) observation scale. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

BBNI: seeks acquisition to be the 3rd largest bank

by assets

The state-owned bank, BBNI, plans to buy a mid-sized

institution to increase its ranking to be the 3rd largest

bank in the country by assets. The planned purchase

would be a win-win game for both BBNI and banking

system as a whole, said President Commissioner, Rizal

Ramli. Despite refuse to say which banks BBNI may

target, Ramli said he would be looking to buy an institu-

tion with a complementary business, a price of 1x book

value and a “compatible” culture. Source: Investor Daily

Comment:

We view this as a Neutral for BBNI (Buy, TP Rp7,800).

Note that the company’s asset should beat BBCA’s total

assets of Rp552tr to be the 3rd largest bank by assets,

therefore BBNI should seek banks with total assets more

than Rp150tr. Such banks with 1.0x PBV, such as BNLI

and BDMN (Sell, TP Rp3,600), would be a consideration

for BBNI. ([email protected])

MAYA: obtains Rp4tr borrowing from ICBC China

A local bank PT Bank Mayapada International (MAYA)

obtains Rp4tr funds borrowing from ICBC China. The

borrowing is in a form of revolving loans from ICBC and

will be used for RMB financing. MAYA’s CEO, Hariyono

Tjahjarijadi, said that the company targets corporations

who have relationship with Chinese counterparts to mar-

ket the RMB financing products. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

TLKM: Telkom sigma plans to build data center worth

Rp1tr

Anticipating the implementation schedule of Government’s

rule (PP No. 82/2012) which requires companies which

performs electronic transaction to have data center in

Indonesia by 2017, PT Sigma Cipta Caraka (Telkomsigma;

owned by TLKM) said there are already several foreign

companies in discussion to rent Telkomsigma’s data center.

Telkomsigma currently targets to build Rp1tr worth of data

center (100sqm; 54-66% larger than existing data center).

Telkomsigma has ~300 customers (corporates) comprise

of: 30% from financial, 20% telecommunication, 20%

transporation, and the remaining 20% are SOEs. Source:

Kontan ([email protected])

SMRA: To issue sukuk and bonds worth Rp.300Bn

SMRA to issue Obligasi Tahap III bonds and sukuk worth

Rp300bn (Rp.150bn each), 10.5% coupon paid every 3

months. Public offering starting in 16-17 april, due in 22

April 2018. The bonds offering is part of SMRA’s Oblligasi

Berkelanjutan I targetting Rp.1.4tr, with Rp.600bn tp

further issued in the future. SMRA may perform buyback

with minimum 1 year period. Funds will be used for compa-

ny expansion to 9 cities; Bandung, Bogor, Bekasi, Tange-

rang, Sulawesi, Yogyakarta, Central Java, East Java and

South Sumatera . Source: Investor Da i ly

([email protected])

JRPT: Aims Rp.2.3tr marketing sales

JRPT aims Rp.2.3tr in marketing sales in 2015, 15% YoY

growth. 60% of their buyers are end users that utilizes

bank loans. JRPT focuses on middle to middle-low segment

housings in 2015. Currently holds 371Ha land bank in

Bintaro Jaya, with options to acquire 100Ha land in Jakar-

ta. 2 projects will be built in said landbank, with working

capi ta l of Rp.1.5t r . Source: Kontan

([email protected])

LPCK: Targets 11% revenue growth

LPCK aims for 11% revenue growth in 2015, amounting

Rp.2tr by the end of the year. The revenue will be derived

from sales from 3 sectors; residential (Rp.860bn, 10% YoY

growth), industrial and commercial (Rp897bn, 10% YoY

growth) and city management (Rp.232bn, 36% YoY

growth). Company also targets Rp.2.5tr in marketing sales

through Orange County project, a 233Ha mixed use devel-

opment in Cikarang, currently reached Rp.250tr in invest-

ment cost.


News of the Day

The food & beverage industry: prefer to maintain

the ASP

According to the chairman of Indonesian food and bever-

age association, the industry players decided to maintain

their ASP amid the fuel price hikes, considering the weak

purchasing power at the current. Source: Kontan

Comment:

This news is negative, given that it may erode the com-

pany’s margin in the medium-to-long term, especially for

the small-to-medium scale companies. We recommend to

overweight in the companies which has strong position

and significant market share in the industry. Our top-pick

in consumer is INDF with Rp8.400 price target.

([email protected]).

WTON: to distribute 30% of 2014 earnings for cash

dividend

According to 2014 annual general meeting, WTON decid-

ed to distribute Rp99bn cash dividend, forming 30% of

2014 earnings of Rp329bn. It translates to approximately

Rp11.82/share. The Cum Dividend and the Ex-Dividen

date will be on 9 April 2015 and 10 April 2015, for regu-

lar and negotiation market. Furthermore, the recording

and the payment date will be on 14 April 2015 and 5 May

2 0 1 5 . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a


Comment:

The actual dividend payour ratio is slightly below than

our expectation of 35%.

SMGR: allocates US$150mn investment

SMGR has made an agreement with the Government in

Jayapura to build the first integrated cement plant in

there, with 1mn production capacity. The construction

period will be started in January 2016, and will start to

operate in 2018. The company is now finalizing the legal

document needed. Source: Bisnis Indonesia


TAXI: Will purchase 500 new taxis

TAXI will spend Rp.400bn in 500 new taxi acquisition,

takes place in Q3 and Q4. TAXI also plans to add taxi

pools in the city central, aiming malls and shopping

malls. Until 31 March 2015, Taxi had added 3 new taxi

pools. TAXI has no plans to expand to other cities this

year. TAXI will increase their rates if BBM reaches

Rp.8000. TAXI booked 29.5% revenue increase in 2014.

Source: Kontan ([email protected])

WIKA, WSKT, JSMR: will participate in Sumatra toll

Govt plans to add WIKA, WSKT, JSMR to list of contractors

that will build Sumatra toll road spanning 2818km worth

IDR360tr. Previously the only contractor appointed was

Hutama Karya. Hutama Karya will break ground in building

the first stretch: 150km Bakauheni-Terbanggi.

Comment:

It is not clear the roles of WIKA, WSKT, and JSMR in build-

ing Sumatra toll road. If their roles are restricted as con-

tractors (although JSMR should not be in that category),

then it would be positive. If their roles are as minority

investors, then we are neutral as Sumatra toll road’s prof-

itability is still questionable.


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

133 119 204

-14

2222

-405

206

2,182

37

-39

1,707

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-

14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD/MT)Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Apr-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Apr-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

3/31/2015 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar 51.8 46.3 45.8

US Consumer Confidence Index Mar 96.4 101.3 96.4

EC Unemployment Rate Feb 11.20% 11.3 11.20%

EC CPI Estimate YoY Mar -0.10% -0.1 -0.30%

EC CPI Core YoY Mar A 0.70% 0.6 0.70%

4/1/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 27-Mar -- 4.6 9.50%

US ADP Employment Change (000's) Mar 225 189 212

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar F 55.3 55.7 55.3

US Construction Spending MoM (%) Feb -0.1 -0.1 -1.1

US ISM Manufacturing Mar 52.5 51.5 52.9

US ISM Prices Paid Mar 38 39 35

ID HSBC Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Mar -- 46.4 47.5

ID CPI NSA MoM (%) Mar 0.22 0.17 -0.36

ID CPI YoY (%) Mar 6.39 6.38 6.29

ID CPI Core YoY (%) Mar 4.95 5.04 4.96

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 51.9 52.2 51.9

CH Manufacturing PMI Mar 49.7 50.1 49.9

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar F 49.3 49.6 49.2

4/2/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 28-Mar 286 268 282

US Continuing Claims (000's) 21-Mar

2,405 2325

2,416

US Trade Balance (USD mn) Feb 41.2 35.4 41.8

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29-Mar -- 46.2 45.5

US Factory Orders (%) Feb -0.4 0.2 -0.2

4/3/2015 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (000's) Mar 245 126 295

US Change in Manufact. Payrolls (000's) Mar 10 -1 8

US Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 5.5 5.5 5.5

CH HSBC China Composite PMI Mar -- 51.8 51.8

CH HSBC China Services PMI Mar -- 52.3 52

4/6/2015 US Markit US Composite PMI Mar F -- -- 58.5

US Markit US Services PMI Mar F -- -- 58.6

US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 56.7 -- 56.9

4/7/2015 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F -- -- 54.3

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F -- -- 54.1

4/8/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Apr -- -- --

EC Retail Sales MoM Feb -- -- 1.10%

EC Retail Sales YoY Feb -- -- 3.70%

ID Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Mar -- -- 115.5

4/9/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Apr -- -- --

US Continuing Claims 28-Mar -- -- --

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 5-Apr -- -- --

US Wholesale Inventories MoM Feb 0.10% -- 0.30%

4/10/2015 US Import Price Index MoM Mar -0.60% -- 0.40%

CH CPI YoY Mar -- -- 1.40%

CH PPI YoY Mar -- -- -4.80%

CH New Yuan Loans CNY (USD bn) Mar 900 -- 1020

CH Money Supply M2 YoY (%) Mar 12.3 -- 12.5

4/11/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USD bn) Mar 46.5 -- --

04/13/2015 CH Trade Balance (USD mn) Mar -- -- 60.6

CH Exports YoY Mar -- -- 48.30%

CH Imports YoY Mar -- -- -20.50%

4/14/2015 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Mar -- -- -0.60%

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Mar -- -- -0.10%

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Mar -- -- -0.20%

US PPI Final Demand MoM Mar -- -- -0.50%

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Mar -- -- -0.50%


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

1 30-Mar-15 ASRI 1,097 25% 1,409 1,229 77.9% 89.3% Below

Net income grew by +25.1% YoY, 63% YoY increased interest cost, performed bond repurchase of Rp.125bn.

2 30-Mar-15 MTLA 268 11% 316 267 84.8% 100.4% Below

3 30-Mar-15 SGRO 340 186% 368 366 92.5% 93.0% Below Top line grew +26.6%YoY; in-line with consensus and our ex-pecation.

4 30-Mar-15 SILO 84 76% 70 120.9% Above

Core profit margin expanded to 2.5% (vs. FY13 1.9). The com-pany booked net other operating loss of -Rp34bn (vs. FY13 gain Rp2.8bn).

5 30-Mar-15 APLN 855 0% 794 107.6% Above

FY14 net margin was 16.1%, down from FY13 (17.4%). Net other gain was Rp103bn (-24.3%YoY). APLN also booked net interest expense of Rp

6 30-Mar-15 UNVR 5,739 7% 5,492 104.5% Above

Net margin slightly declined by -80bps, due to higher other ex-penses of Rp17tr, and a signifi-cant increase in interest expens-es

7 30-Mar-15 SIDO 414 2% 433 95.7% In-line

EBIT and net margin were ex-panded due to significant de-crease in finance expenses and other expenses

8 30-Mar-15 WIIM 112 -15% 91 123.9% Above WIIM are only covered by 3 ana-lysts. All the margin were de-clined.

9 30-Mar-15 KLBF 2,065 8% 2,110 97.9% In-line

the company has succeed to maintain its margin at the level of 49% for gross margin, 16% for operating margin, and 12% for net margin

10 27-Mar-15 ROTI 189 19% 194 97.4% In-line

There's a significant increase in interest expense to come to Rp47bn (vs Rp24bn), due to 27% YoY growth in debt posi-

11 20-Mar-15 ICBP 2,604 17% 2,674 2,693 97.4% 96.7% In-line

Gross margin expanded by +120bps, backed by declining in raw material price. Yet, there're some increments in opex, relat-ed with new operation of bever-age factory

12 20-Mar-15 INDF 3,885 55% 4,004 4,142 97.0% 93.8% In-line Minzhong started to record as a discontinued operation, following PSAK regulation.

13 17-Mar-15 ACST 105 5% 119 106 88.2% 98.4% In-line Revenus grew by +33% YoY, booked lower gross margin

14 17-Mar-15 WIKA 615 8% 641 621 96.0% 99.1% In-line Revenues grew by +5% YoY, income fr JO grew by +42% YoY, while interest exp grew triple

15 10-Mar-15 SMCB 668 -30% 934 71.6% Below Higher COS and Operating exp due to higher electricity cost and fuel price

16 10-Mar-15 WTON 329 36% 300 307 109.3% 107.0% Above Revenues grow by 24% YoY


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

17 4-Mar-15 BTPN 1,853 66% 1,701 1,695 91.8% 91.5% Below

The company reported stable

NPL at 0.7% (-10bps q-o-q,

+3bps y-o-y) supported by de-

clining NPL in micro segment.

18 4-Mar-15 MPPA 505 72% 593 582 117.5% 115.3% Above Supported by margin expansion

by 130bps to 3.7%.

19 3-Mar-15 SMGR 5,566 4% 5,541 5,628 100.5% 98.9% In-line

Strong revenue growth at

+10.1% YoY. Gross margins

dropped to 43% (FY13: 44.7%),

while op. margin reached 25.8%

(FY13: 28.5%)

20 3-Mar-15 PTPP 532 26% 534 517 99.7% 103.0% In-line

Revenus grew by +6.6%YoY,

higher gross margin at 12.3%

(FY13: 10.9%)

21 3-Mar-15 TBIG 924 -34% 793 595 85.8% 64.4% In-line

Last year, the company booked

net other income of Rp366 bn

(vs. FY2013 -36bn), including

forex loss of Rp192bn (FY2013 -

799bn)

22 25-Feb-15 AALI 2,490 21% 2,114 2,458 84.9% 98.7% In-line

23 25-Feb-15 ADHI 324 -20% 415 295 78.1% 109.8% Below

Negative revenus growth by -

12% YoY, lower income from JO,

and higher interest exp

24 25-Feb-15 WSKT 502 36% 486 422 103.1% 119.0% In-line Income fr JO grew double to

Rp197bn vs. Rp102bn

25 24-Feb-15 ARNA 259 1% 226 87.3% Below

26 24-Feb-15 ITMG 2,533 -17% 2,718 2,325 93.2% 91.8% Below

27 17-Feb-15 LPPF 1,419 23% 1,419 1,376 100.0% 97.0% In-line

LPPF still booked 10.7% SSSG.

We noted a declining bank loans

by 57% YoY to Rp689bn, result-

ing to a -17% interest expense.

28 12-Feb-15 BMRI 19,872 9% 18,978 19,951 95.5% 100.4% In-line

Supported by 17.3% yoy growth

in net interest income but lower

loan growth than industry.

29 6-Feb-15 JSMR 1,403 5% 1,249 1,263 89.0% 90.0% Below

Negative revenues growth

due to lower revenues from

construction, while revenues

from toll road up by +14.5%

YoY

30 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

31 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

32 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

33 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Result FY14 (Cont’d 1)

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

18 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

19 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

20 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

21 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

BEST-W 200 10-Apr-15 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate WARAN SERI I BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant

Code Div.

Status Div/share

(Rp) Cum

Dividend Ex Dividend Recording

Payment / Distribution

Total Dividend

ADHI - 36.0 27-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 1-Apr-15 22-Apr-15 64.8

AGRO - 0.82 1-Apr-15 2-Apr-15 7-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 6.1

BBNI - 144.5 24-Mar-15 25-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 2,695.7

BBRI - 294.8 26-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 31-Mar-15 22-Apr-15 7,272.5

BBTN - 21.1 31-Mar-15 1-Apr-15 6-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 223.1

BMRI - 212.9 23-Mar-15 24-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 4,968.0

DSNG - 50 25-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 -

JSMR - 72.2 25-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 491.2

Dividend


Statistics

-0.4

-0.7

-1.2

-1.5

-1.9

-2.9

-3.0

-3.9

-4.3

-4.8

TLKM

BBNI

ASII

SCMA

CPIN

INCO

CTRA

LPPF

JRPT

WSKT8.9

5.3

4.3

3.3

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.0

2.3

IIKP

TRIO

ASRI

AKRA

MPPA

ADRO

GGRM

PTBA

INTP

SMRA

296

192

184

172

170

165

126

124

113

109

- 200 400

BBRI

ASII

ASRI

BMRI

WSKT

TLKM

BBCA

BBNI

SSMS

AKRA

491

337

302

278

261

254

194

149

133

113

0 200 400 600

CPRO

MTFN

ASRI

SRIL

BUMI

NIRO

TRAM

CPGT

SIAP

PWON

7,527

6,604

6,190

4,971

4,379

4,275

4,095

3,829

3,517

3,445

WSKT

SSMS

TRAM

TLKM

ASII

ASRI

CPRO

SRIL

BMRI

BUMI

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) 4.39% 5,867

YTD (USD) 37.34% 5,508

Moving Avg 20day 5,441 5,501

Moving Avg 50day 5,389 14.3

Moving Avg 200day 5,164 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 6,570.3 -22.5 -0.3 6.0

JII 716.8 -1.8 -0.2 3.7

LQ45 949.2 -2.6 -0.3 5.6

JAKFIN Index 820.5 -0.5 -0.1 12.2

JAKINFR Index 1,087.4 -2.4 -0.2 -6.3

JAKMINE Index 1,291.6 6.2 0.5 -5.7

JAKCONS Index 2,314.0 2.5 0.1 6.2

JAKTRAD Index 997.4 -2.9 -0.3 13.5

JAKMIND Index 1,376.6 -14.9 -1.1 5.3

JAKBIND Index 477.1 -1.7 -0.3 -12.3

JAKPROP Index 559.1 -2.9 -0.5 6.5

JAKAGRI Index 2,253.2 0.6 0.0 -4.2

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 216.1 -0.0 -0.02 -6.0

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 55.0 -2.2 -3.77 -4.1

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 49.1 -1.0 -1.90 -7.8

Natural Gas 2.7 0.1 4.15 -6.4

COAL (AUS Daily) 54.4 -0.8 -1.36 -12.3

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,776.0 4.8 0.27 -3.1

Nickel (USD/tonne) 13,025 320 2.52 -14.0

Tin (USD/tonne) 16,795 220 1.33 -13.4

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,200.9 -7.3 -0.60 1.4

Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.7 -0.4 -2.10 7.1

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,196 36.0 1.67 -4.1

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,731 -5.3 -0.30 5.4

Corn (USD/bu.) 387 4.8 1.24 -2.6

Wheat (USD/bu.) 536 7.8 1.47 -9.1

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 986 -3.8 -0.38 -3.2

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,750.3 12.11 0.70 2.37

SPX S&P 500 2,067.0 7.27 0.35 0.39

US

17,763.2 65.1 0.37 -0.34

Nasdaq US 4,886.9 6.71 0.14 3.18

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 397.8 -0.72 -0.18 16.15

FTSE London 6,833.5 23.96 0.35 4.07

DAX Jerman 11,967.4 -34.0 -0.28 22.05

CAC France 5,074.1 11.92 0.24 18.75

SMI Swiss 9,130.6 -6.66 -0.07 1.64

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 53,123.0 801 1.53 6.23

MICEX Russia 1,681.5 19.57 1.18 20.40

SENSEX India 28,260.1 0.0 0.00 2.77

NIFTY India 8,586.3 0.0 0.00 3.66

SHCOMP China 3,863.9 53.64 1.41 19.45

SZCOMP China 2,080.4 74.73 3.73 47.00

Nikkei Japan 19,435.1 400.2 2.10 11.37

TPX Japan 1,564.2 35.17 2.30 11.13

HSI Hong kong 25,275.6 192.9 0.77 7.08

KOSPI S.Korea 2,045.4 16.97 0.84 6.78

TAIEX Taiwan 9,600.3 92.7 0.97 3.15

FSSTI Singapore 3,453.8 6.73 0.20 2.63

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,536.1 10.47 0.69 2.56

PCOMP Philipines 7,993.1 0.0 0.00 10.55

KLCI Malaysia 1,834.5 8.21 0.45 4.16

VNINDEX Vietnam 547.9 8.94 1.66 0.41

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.911 -0.018 -0.02 13.93

USDGBP UK 0.670 -0.004 -0.01 11.70

USDCHF Switzerland 0.952 -0.015 -0.02 -4.83

USDCAD Canada 1.248 -0.014 -0.01 4.03

USDAUD Australia 1.311 -0.005 -0.00 9.22

USDNZD New Zealand 1.316 -0.026 -0.02 1.20

USDJPY Japan 118.97 -0.790 -0.01 -0.69

USDCNY China 6.19 (0.00) (0.00) -0.09

USDHKD Hongkong 7.752 -0.000 -0.00 -0.61

USDSGD Singapore 1.351 -0.013 -0.01 3.88

Rupiah Indonesia 13,020 -28.0 -0.00 5.10

JCI 5,456.4 (10.5) -0.2%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Trading Ideas 23-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,443 Rebound 5437 -0.11% Incorrect

TLKM 2,920 Buy 2920 0.00% Correct

LSIP 1,835 Buy 1795 -2.18% Incorrect

AALI 25,750 Buy 24800 -3.69% Incorrect

TBIG 9,225 Buy 9225 0.00% Correct

BMRI 12,200 Sell 12175 -0.20% Correct

BJBR 955 Sell 955 0.00% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 910 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,875 Buy 4010 3.48% Correct


JCI 5,454 Profit Taking 5443 -0.20% Correct

UNVR 38,300 Buy 38300 0.00% Correct

PTBA 10,450 Buy 10350 -0.96% Incorrect

ITMG 17,025 Buy 17650 3.67% Correct

ELSA 560 Buy 560 0.00% Correct

ASRI 590 Buy 580 -1.69% Incorrect

VIVA 550 Buy 540 -1.82% Incorrect


JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct







UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect



MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct

ASII 7,975 Buy 8,000 0.31% Correct

PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


JCI 5,445 Cont'd Weakening 5,435 0.16% Incorrect

TLKM 2,955 Buy 2,975 0.68% Correct

LSIP 1,840 Buy 1,920 4.35% Correct

INCO 3,295 Buy 3,365 2.12% Correct

MPPA 4,200 Buy 4,435 5.60% Correct

PTPP 3,770 Buy 3,740 -0.80% Incorrect

ICBP 14,625 Sell 15,000 2.56% Incorrect



Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,397 Cont'd Strenghtening 0.77% Correct

ASII 8,200 Buy 2.13% Correct

GJTL 1,260 Buy 1.98% Correct

PGAS 4,720 Buy 1.80% Correct

TLKM 2,810 Buy 1.96% Correct

ADHI 3,015 Buy 0.83% Correct

AALI 23,650 Buy 0.63% Correct


JCI 5,369 Technical Rebound 0.52% Correct

TLKM 2,810 Buy 0.00% Correct

PGAS 4,650 Buy 1.51% Correct

LSIP 1,650 Buy 4.24% Correct

SMGR 13,000 Buy 3.46% Correct

KLBF 1,835 Sell 0.27% Incorrect

UNVR 38,500 Sell 1.56% Incorrect

RALS 755 Buy 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,405 Cont'd Weakenig -0.67% Correct

TLKM 2,880 Buy -2.43% Incorrect

UNTR 21,150 Buy -1.42% Incorrect

MPPA 4,090 Buy -2.20% Incorrect

PGAS 4,655 Buy -0.11% Correct

ASII 8,200 Sell -0.61% Correct

KLBF 1,805 Sell 1.66% Correct


JCI 5,448 Profit Taking -0.78% Correct

UNVR 38,900 Buy -0.19% Incorrect

ITMG 17,650 Buy -1.98% Incorrect

BSDE 2,055 Buy -0.73% Incorrect

ERAA 985 Buy -3.55% Incorrect

ASI 8,150 Sell 0.61% Correct

LPKR 1,270 Sell 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,437 Cont'd Weakening 0.20% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy 0.52% Correct

PTBA 10,475 Buy 0.72% Correct

UNVR 38,625 Buy 0.71% Correct

BBTN 1,140 Buy 2.19% Correct

BMRI 12,175 Sell -0.82% Correct

BJBR 930 Sell 3.76% Incorrect

BMRI 12,200 Sell -1.02% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 885 (0) Correct




JCI 5,443 Rebound 5437 -0.11% Incorrect


LSIP 1,835 Buy 1795 -2.18% Incorrect


TBIG 9,225 Buy 9225 0.00% Correct

BMRI 12,200 Sell 12175 -0.20% Correct

BJBR 955 Sell 955 0.00% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 910 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,875 Buy 4010 3.48% Correct



UNVR 38,300 Buy 38300 0.00% Correct

PTBA 10,450 Buy 10350 -0.96% Incorrect




VIVA 550 Buy 540 -1.82% Incorrect


JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct







UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect



MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct


PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


JCI 5,445 Cont'd Weakening 5,435 0.16% Incorrect

TLKM 2,955 Buy 2,975 0.68% Correct

LSIP 1,840 Buy 1,920 4.35% Correct



PTPP 3,770 Buy 3,740 -0.80% Incorrect

ICBP 14,625 Sell 15,000 2.56% Incorrect




JCI 5,440 Profit Taking 5,426 -0.25% Correct

ITMG 16,950 Buy 17,300 2.06% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy 970 0.00% Correct



ASRI 560 Buy 565 0.89% Correct

GJTL 1,255 Buy 1,300 3.59% Correct

BCAP 1,770 Sell 1,780 0.56% Incorrect


JCI 5,420 Rebound 5,440 0.37% Correct



BBRI 12,775 Buy 12,900 0.98% Correct

PGAS 5,200 Buy 5,200 0.00% Correct

TRAM 91 Trading Buy 106 16.48% Correct

NIRO 214 Trading Buy 211 -1.40% Incorrect


JCI 5,463 Profit taking 5,420 -0.80% Correct

LSIP 1,875 Buy 1,845 -1.60% Incorrect

AALI 26,075 Buy 26,100 0.10% Correct


CPRO 119 Trading Buy 118 -0.84% Correct

INCO 3,380 Sell 3,335 -1.33% Correct

TINS 1,005 Sell 990 -1.49% Correct



ADRO 990 Buy 985 -0.51% Incorrect

INCO 3,425 Buy 3,380 -1.31% Incorrect


UNTR 20,625 Buy 21,350 3.52% Correct

BCIP 760 Trading Buy 750 -1.32% Incorrect

MYRX 755 Trading Buy 760 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,515 Con't Strenghtening 5,445 -1.28% Incorrect

BBNI 6,675 Buy 6,700 0.37% Correct

BDMN 4,925 Buy 4,805 -2.44% Incorrect

PGAS 5,350 Buy 5,350 0.00% Correct


ASII 8,075 Buy 7,950 -1.55% Correct

NIRO 226 Trading Buy 222 -1.77% Incorrect



BBNI 6,675 Buy 6,775 1.50% Correct

SCMA 3,660 Buy 3,670 0.27% Correct

NIRO 223 Buy 226 1.35% Correct

ASRI 610 Buy 610 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,980 Buy 3,960 -0.50% Correct

UNVR 36,250 Sell 37,800 4.28% Incorrect

GGRM 54,275 Sell 54,300 0.05% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

trim daily · 2019. 11. 4. · rang, sulawesi, yogyakarta, central java, east java and south...

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