trondheim (1350)

SINTEF Energiforskning AS

Bjorn H. Bakken, 5 October 2004

Trondheim (1350)

Oslo (350)

Employees: 1.700

Turnover: 243 mill. USD (2001)

6 research divisions:

• Health research• ICT• Marine• Materials and chemistry• Oil and Energy• Technology and Society

Dr. Bjorn H. BakkenEnergy SystemsSINTEF Energy ResearchTrondheim, Norway

email: [email protected]

Dr. Bjorn H. BakkenEnergy SystemsSINTEF Energy ResearchTrondheim, Norway

email: [email protected]

The Foundation for Scientific and The Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research at the Norwegian Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Technology



Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysis?Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysis?

Limited geographical scope Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark Limited connections to neighbouring countries Transparency (data availability)

All major energy resources/technologies present Hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, … Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availablity) Electricity dependent demand (reduced flexibility)



Total energy Total energy consumptionconsumption in Norway in Norway1970 - 20011970 - 2001

50

100

150

200

250

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Natural and other gassesOil productsDistrict heatingElectricityWood and wasteCoal and coke

TWh/year

Electricity +2.6% p.a.



Electricity Generation in Nordel 2002 (TWh)Electricity Generation in Nordel 2002 (TWh)

DENMARK

SWEDEN

FINLAND

NORWAY

Conv. thermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

65.6 66.0

11.2

0.6

0.8

129.7

39.8

21.410.6

32.3

4.9



NOU 1998:11NOU 1998:11 Electricity demand scenariosElectricity demand scenarios

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

TW

h/y

ea

r

Green BP

Heavy C-1

Heavy C-2

Steady

Journey Up

2002

2003

2007



Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysis?Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysis?


All major energy resources/technologies present Hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, … Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availablity) Electricity dependent demand

Open markets and competition Common liberalized power market (NordPool) Emerging European gas market Emerging “green certificate” markets New renewables have to compete in current markets



Range of wind power cost

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Week

NO

K/M

Wh

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2004 Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2004 Weekly average (USD/MWh)Weekly average (USD/MWh)

US

D/M

Wh

100

50

25

75

125



Windpower in NorwayWindpower in Norway

In operation 2003:100 MW (0.3 TWh/year)

Concession granted:565 MW (1.7 TWh/year)

Applied & Notified: 590 + 2000 MW (7.7 TWh/year)

Total: 3300 MW (10 TWh)

Official target:1000 MW (3 TWh) by 2010



Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysisScandinavia – an ideal region for analysis


All major energy resources/technologies present Hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, … Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availablity) Electricity dependent demand

Open markets and competition Common liberalized power market (NordPool) Emerging European gas market Emerging “green certificate” markets New renewables have to compete in current markets

Challenging region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies!



Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)

A joint research program between- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)- The SINTEF Group - Massachussets Institute of Technology - Chalmers University of Technology

2004 - 2008



Annual increase in generation and consumption Annual increase in generation and consumption 1960 - 20001960 - 2000

1990-20001980-19901970-19801960-1970

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

TWh/year

Average increase in generationAverage increase in generation

Average increase in consumptionAverage increase in consumption



Generation capacity vs. consumptionGeneration capacity vs. consumption1976 - 20011976 - 2001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

TW

h/ye

ar

Consumption

Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year)



ObjectivesObjectives

Enable governments, industries and communities to meet their future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment

Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment

Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services

Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty

PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved



SponsorsSponsors

Project idea created by Norsk Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU

Current annual budget: NOK 3,000,000

Total budget (2004-08): NOK 30,000,000

Current sponsors: Norsk Hydro Norske Shell Statoil Statkraft (Norw. State Power Company) Statnett (Norw. Grid Company) Statsbygg (Directorate of Public Construction and Property) Enova (State agency for energy efficiency and renewable

energy) ...



Scientific partnersScientific partners

Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU

Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU

Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU

SINTEF Energy Research

The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT

Dept. of Energy Technology, Chalmers

SINTEF Materials and chemistry

Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)

BI (Norwegian School of Management) (?)

Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol), NTNU (?)

ChalmersMITNTNU



PhD StudiesPhD Studies

A number of coordinated PhD studies and possibly PostDoc postitions will be initiated at the different participating institutions. Suggested themes are:

Efficient energy use / Building technology (NTNU + MIT) The end users role and behaviour (NTNU + MIT) Hydrogen as future energy carrier (NTNU + IFE) MCDM / Decision support under uncertainty (NTNU + MIT) Emissions trading and green certificates (NTNU + Chalmers) CO2 capture technology (NTNU + Chalmers) Life Cycle Assessment (NTNU + MIT)



Analytical frameworkAnalytical framework

Supply scenarios(capacities, locations,

technologies etc.)

Supply scenarios(capacities, locations,

technologies etc.)

Demand scenarios(sectors, carriers,

services etc.)

Demand scenarios(sectors, carriers,

services etc.)

Assumptions(attributes, strategies,

uncertainties etc.)

Assumptions(attributes, strategies,

uncertainties etc.)

Presentationof results

(trade-off plots etc.)

Presentationof results

(trade-off plots etc.)Stakeholder interaction

Stakeholder interaction

”Typical” scenario study

TRANSES dialog process

Energy system

simulator(s)

Energy system

simulator(s)

MCDM(extractionof results, trade-offanalysis)

MCDM(extractionof results, trade-offanalysis)

Economy/Investm.

Economy/Investm.

”Analytical engine”

Data input(resources,

technologies, costs,

efficiencies, demand

etc.)

Data input(resources,

technologies, costs,

efficiencies, demand

etc.)

Policy framework(emission control, taxes,

incentives, etc.)

Policy framework(emission control, taxes,

incentives, etc.)



Energy products of NorwayEnergy products of Norway20012001

1810

530

118

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Energy products

Ene

rgy

(TW

h) HydropowerGasOil



Demand uncertaintiesDemand uncertainties

Driving forces for growth in electricity demand Substitution of oil to electricity Increased comfort (kWh/m2) Increased activities (m2 and NOK) Domestic changes (m2 per capita)

Uncertainties in demand Development of district heating Development of natural gas Development of hydrogen etc.



Residential electricity consumption Residential electricity consumption in Norway (%)in Norway (%)

Space heating 41

Hot water 24

Lighting 11

Cooling 8

Cooking 4

Washing 3

Drying 2

Other equipment 7



Peak demand recordsPeak demand records1990 - 20021990 - 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Pea

k de

man

d (G

W)

Available generation capacity in winter (23 – 24.5 GW)



Exisiting demand scenariosExisiting demand scenarios

SINTEF 1996 Energy +1% p.a. Peak power +1.2% p.a.

NOU 1998:11 ‘Green Brainpower’ +0.8% p.a. ‘Climate Road’ +0.2-0.7% p.a. ‘Steady Course’ +1.3% p.a. ‘Long Journey Up’ +1.5% p.a.

Nordel area: +8% from 2000 to 2010



Supply options (1) Supply options (1)

Hydro power Politically and environmentally controversial

International electricity exchange European markets? Emissions trading and certificate markets?

Conventional gas power Politically and environmentally controversial

Gas power with CO2 removal

High investments and reduced efficiency

Direct use of gas Expensive infrastructure Environmentally controversial



Supply options (2) Supply options (2)

Wind power High potential, but not without problems

District heating with renewable energy sources Expensive infrastructure

Biomass and waste Currently only heat generation Waste is paid fuel!

Hydrogen Promising technology Expensive Not an energy source!!



Demand side options (1)Demand side options (1)

Local energy studies Demand forecasts Resource mapping Supply and infrastructure

Local generation Utilize electricity and heat

Heat pumps Alternative for heating, but increases dependence on electricity

Passive (thermal) solar systems

End-user flexibility / Demand side bidding



Demand side options (2)Demand side options (2)

Power intensive industries 30-35 TWh Selling power “back” to the market Increased efficiency (kWh/NOK)

Transport sector Main source of CO2 in Norway

Building locations

New building codes and techniques Less effect than expected Slow turnover of buildings



Climate issuesClimate issues

Global, regional (Europe) and national level

Kyoto protocol GHG emissions related to 1990 level Joint international implementation possible

EU directives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system limited to large thermal

power plants

National directives and incentives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system under development

Swedish green certificate market established May 2003 Possible development to common Nordic market

trondheim (1350)

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