tropical cyclones and climate change results from higem
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM. Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale , Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan. Trop goup – 10th Oct. PhD questions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Results from HiGEM
Ray BellSupervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin
Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan
Trop goup – 10th Oct
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• Will there be a change in TC activity (location, intensity, frequency, lifetime, structure) with climate change?
• How does this change depend on resolution?
• How well are the governing mechanisms represented in climate models and how does resolution affect their representation?
• What is the role of teleconnections - Possible ENSO changes on NAtl TC activity?
• [What is the role of coupling with the ocean?]
PhD questions
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• Explaining the change of TC activity– Change in parameters relevant to TCs: SST, vws, RH, -ω
• Investigating the ENSO teleconnections on TCs (and possible ENSO change)
- Change in NINO3.4 SSTs - El Niño composites vs. La Niña composites
Current work
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Tighter filter on storms.
• Warm core testing between individual levels (still applying dec. Vor. With height)
• Test for cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft• Removes monsoon type depressions
New warm core level TRACKing
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Change in track densities with increased CO2
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Change in TC frequency (%)
TC/yr NH ATL WPAC EPAC NIND% changeFor ctrl
att att att att att
30yr 2xCO2
-5.6 -0.7 -24.8 -22 -8.7 -6.6 -3.2 7.7 14.6 38.630yr4xCO2 -22.2 -13.6 -47.5 -41.7 -22.0 -19.25 -40.73 -25.39 -2.76 15.92
CPAC
-1.67 -8.57
38.46 40.79
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Regional change of 850hPa wspeed
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Large scale tropical change
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regional scale tropical change
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Change in SST
Zhao et al (2009)
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Change in vws
Vecchi et al (2007)
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Change in RH700
Vecchi et al (2007)
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Change in –ω500
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Change in ppt
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ENSO telleconnections on HiGEM TCs
Bengtsson et al (2006)
NINO3.4 SST DJF > 1 or <1, year containing D
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Future work• More analysis explaining the TC change – change in Walker
and Hadley plots
• TCs in different resolutions and climate change simulations
• Changes in SH
• ENSO influence on NATL activity - compare IBTrACS and re-analysis to HiGEM present day simulation.
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2 types of ENSO in HiGEM
Kug and Ham (2011)• Investigate change in TC activity with the 2 types of El Nino.
• Investigate the change in types of ENSO in HiGEM inc. CO2 and the TC relation
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HiGEM CTRL TC frequency
CPAC5x30 years ctrl
4.3(1-4.4)
3(0-4.2)
TC/yr NH ATL WPAC EPAC NINDatt att att att att
5x30 years ctrl
67.3(63.9-71)
49.8(47.1-51.3)
4(5.1-2)
3(1-4.1)
32.6(28.9-41)
28.6(26.4-34)
19.4(17.3-22)
10.4(9.5-10.6)
4.6(3-5.6)
3.1(2.3-3.7)
Obs (83-07)
63 12.3 28.3 16.6 5.8
9.010.811.412.114.8
Atl Additional obs are 1851-2010, 1944-2010, 1966-2010, 1981-2010, 1995-2010From Blake (2010)
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Change in structure100 most intense TCs at most intense
4xCO2
Earth relative windsBelow 35oNNH
2xCO2
10o radius850hPa
Avg 30 yr ctrl