TRUMP, CHINA

AND THE

REGION:

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

One-Day Symposium Hunter Council Chamber

Victoria University of Wellington

Thursday 4 May 2017

Hosted by the Centre for Strategic Studies and New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre

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TRUMP, CHINA AND THE REGION: Where to from here?

Hosted by the Centre for Strategic Studies and the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre

Thursday 4 May 2017

Hunter Council Chamber, Level 2, Hunter Building, Victoria University of Wellington

9.00am to 5.15pm

The election of President Donald J. Trump and the consolidation of

President Xi Jinping’s leadership in China have raised fundamental

questions about the future of US-China relations and the shape of

the economic and security order in the Asia-Pacific region. This

one-day symposium brings together a group of leading

international and local scholars to consider and debate what the

Trump Administration’s policies might mean for the future of US-

China relations and for the security and prosperity of the wider

region, including New Zealand.

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PROGRAMME

8.30am Registration

9.00am Welcome

David Capie Director, Centre for Strategic Studies

Tony Browne Chair, New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre

9.10am Keynote Address

H.E. Bilahari Kausikan Ambassador-at-Large, Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs

10.15 am Morning Tea

10.45am PANEL 1: Conflict or Cooperation? The Shape of US-China Relations in a New Era Chair: Peter Harris Senior Fellow, New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre

Bates Gill Professor of Asia Pacific Strategic Studies with the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

Title: Trump, Xi, and the Future of U.S.-China Relations Abstract: The Mar-a-Lago meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, while a positive development, has done little to answer the enormous questions which still hang over the future of US-China relations. Indeed, no matter who became the US president, the US-China relationship was already headed into difficult territory. The relationship has long had structural tensions built in to it, and those will not be easily resolved. The ascent of candidate, president-elect, and President Trump introduced new tensions and uncertainties in to US-China ties. Those are far from

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12.15pm Lunch

resolved, in spite of President Trump's many reversals on his previous tough talk toward China. If and as the range of difficult issues in US-China relations -- on trade, cybersecurity, maritime security, North Korea, Taiwan and more -- continue to fester, it is entirely possible the US administration will return to harsher positions toward Beijing. Concession from Beijing seem unlikely as Xi Jinping looks to solidify his position domestically, emerges as a more confident leader in the coming year, and look ahead to legacy-building for his second and final five-year term.

WANG Dong Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Peking University; Secretary General, Academic Committee, the Pangoal Institution

Title: Assessing Trump: Implications for China and the Region Abstract: Arguably, Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency signifies a fundamental shift in US politics and foreign policy and, international politics more broadly. How does China assess Trump when he was a candidate and after he was elected? What will be the Trump presidency’s implications for China and the region? In this presentation, I will analyze how Chinese policy analysts and public debate about Trump, and how China’s assessments of him change over time. I will examine several key incidents and interactions, including the most recent summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. I will also discuss the current North Korea nuclear crisis in that context.

Merriden Varrall Director, East Asia Program, Lowy Institute for International Policy

Title: How Chinese worldviews affect Sino-US relations Abstract: The broader context of the day-to-day aspects of the Sino-US relationship is each party’s perceptions of the other. Much of the Chinese population, including elites, sees the US and everything the US does -- regardless of who is in the White House -- through the lens of tightly-held and widely-shared worldviews. These worldviews are constructed and malleable, but nevertheless, highly powerful. Narratives of the ‘century of humiliation’, history as destiny, and the notion that cultural characteristics are inherent, are particularly influential themes in Chinese views of the US. How do these worldviews underpin how China under President Xi sees the role in the region of the US under President Trump?

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1.15pm PANEL 2: East Asia’s Economic and Security Order: where to from here?

Chair: Pip McLachlan Director Engagement and Research, Asia New Zealand Foundation

Toshihiro Nakayama Adjunct Fellow, JIIA / Professor, Keio University

Title: So far so good: Japan-US relations in the Trump era Abstract: Japan, probably more than any other nation, depended on global order and norms sustained by forward leaning American commitment and internationalism. The message candidate Trump kept sending during the 2016 campaign seemed to negate all what America stood for. Surely, Japan depended on the military alliance with the U.S., but even more, Japan which lacks ‘hard power' to shape the desirable international environment depended on “liberal international order” which renders international relations more predictable. For Japan, candidate Trump seemed to pose an existential question. Prime Minister Abe, understanding the implication of Trump presidency, flew to New York to meet President-elect right after the election. He has also spent long hours with President Trump soon after he assumed office. In those meetings, Japan was able to attain almost all prior commitments from the U.S. The feeling in Japan today is “so far so good, what more can we expect?” However, the worries still linger. “No surprise!” used to be the mantra of alliance-management, but no more in the Trump era.

SHAO Yuqun Executive Director, Center for American Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

Title: Assessing Trump’s foreign Policy towards China and the Region Abstract: Since coming to office, a number of discernible trends are evident in the Trump Administration’s foreign policy. There is a strong focus on national strength as opposed to global influence and a geostrategic focus on the Middle East to counter the ISIS threat. The Administration has sort to reassure traditional allies in the Middle East, the Asia Pacific and Eurasia but failed to improve relations with Russia. It has employed political means to pursue economic goals and appears to be moving back toward mainstream foreign policy even though a high degree of unpredictability remains. Following the April summit meeting, China and the US appear to be stabilizing relations by building working relations

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between the two leaders and establishing new dialogue mechanisms. The unpredictability of the Trump Administration’s policy toward East Asia presents a challenge for the region. In contrast, China’s promotion of open commerce through regional trade agreements, the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative provides some stability. Just how the Trump Administration will manage relations with China and

what this will mean for China’s initiatives in the region remains unclear.

Ian Storey Senior Fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore

Title: US-China Relations in the Trump-Xi Era: Views from Southeast Asia Abstract: Donald Trump is a decisive figure, and unsurprisingly his victory in the November 2016 US presidential elections divided opinion in Southeast Asia. Some ASEAN members were unnerved at the prospect of a US president who has little direct experience of Asia, who views bilateral relations in transactional terms, seemingly favours protectionism over free trade, has little time for multilateralism, and conflates Islam with terrorism. Other ASEAN members were unfazed at America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and looked forward to working with a US administration that seems less intent on promoting democracy and criticising other countries’ human rights records. All ASEAN states, however, will be watching keenly how US-China relations develop over the next four years. Two concerns are uppermost in their minds. First, how will friction generated by US-China trade issues impact Southeast Asian economies? And second, what will the Trump administration’s approach to the South China Sea dispute be? A hands-off approach might embolden Chinese assertiveness, while a more robust US response to Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea would be sure to raise tensions and turn the region into the principal arena of Sino-US rivalry, neither of which would be good for regional security.

2.45pm Afternoon Tea

3.05pm PANEL 3: Southern Exposure? Implications for New Zealand and Australia Chair: David Capie Director, Centre for Strategic Studies

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Brendan Taylor Interim Director of the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, Australian National University

Title: The West Island looks South: New Zealand in Australia’s Alliance Debate Abstract: For the first time in two generations Australians are seriously debating the American alliance as longstanding public support for this strategic tie exhibits greater complexity and the bipartisan political consensus which has supported it throughout its seventy-year history comes under strain. New Zealand features prominently in Australia’s alliance debate. Some commentators contend that Canberra should follow ‘the Road to Wellington’, distancing itself from a Trump-led America and downsizing its armed forces in the process. Others suggest that Australia should hedge against the possibility of US withdrawal from Asia by pursuing a geographically-based form of alignment that would see it engaging much more meaningfully with neighbouring countries such as Indonesia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore. Yet another line of argument posits that Canberra should instead pursue a ‘values-based’ form of alignment, banding together with like-minded democratic countries – such as New Zealand, India and Japan - to preserve the so-called rules-based regional strategic order that has served Australia so well. This paper assesses these arguments and their implications for the Trans-Tasman relationship.

Natasha Hamilton-Hart Director of the New Zealand Asia Institute and Professor in the Department of Management and International Business, University of Auckland

Title: Business as usual? A tale ‘Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury’… Abstract: But probably not signifying nothing. The new Trump administration has signalled that the election campaign’s inflammatory rhetoric on trade and foreign economic relations was not mere bluster. Key posts have been filled by people who have declared themselves hostile to the foundational principles of American trade policy over the past sixty years. Trump’s decision to appoint Peter Navarro, author of ‘Death by China’, as the head of his new National Trade Council suggests a willingness to escalate trade confrontation with China. Any serious disruption of US-China trade would create serious fallout for the rest of East Asia and, therefore, New Zealand. The costs to US consumers and businesses would be extraordinarily high. Although we probably cannot

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rule out the possibility that Trump will press the nuclear button on China trade, it is more likely that self-interest will see the administration avoid an all-out trade confrontation with China. What appears to be taking shape, however, is a more ‘transactional’ approach to trade policy: a policy based on deal-making and coercive bargaining rather than generalized rules and principles.

Robert Ayson Professor of Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington

Title: Expectations of Growing Pressure or Pressure of Growing Expectations? New Zealand’s Economic-Security Nexus Abstract: Donald Trump’s opposition to multilateral trade diplomacy, including the removal of the United States from the TPP, challenges New Zealand’s Asia-Pacific economic interests. While these interests remain central to Wellington’s foreign policy, there is also a security angle. A comprehensively engaged United States supports a strategic equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific region where China is converting its economic power into diplomatic and military influence. Does the Trump Administration’s arrival reduce New Zealand’s confidence that it can intensify its economic connections with China knowing that Washington’s regional commitment will not falter? Or should Wellington take heart that on North Korea, Mr Trump is encouraging Xi Jinping’s China to apply economic pressure on Pyongyang in the quest for a better security outcome? And if this exploitation of an economics-security nexus means the use of violent force is avoided, might this allay the concerns Wellington may have about the new Administration’s values?

4.35pm Concluding Remarks Jamil Anderlini Asia Editor, Financial Times

4:.50pm Vote of thanks Jason Young Acting Director, New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre

5.00pm Symposium Closes

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SPEAKERS’ BIOGRAPHIES in order of appearance

H.E. Bilahari Kausikan is currently Ambassador-at-Large in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Singapore. From 2001 to May 2013, he was the Second Permanent Secretary and subsequently the Permanent Secretary of MFA. He retired in June 2013 after 33 years in the public sector. Ambassador Kausikan held a variety of appointments in the MFA, such as Director for Southeast Asia, Director for East Asia and the Pacific and Deputy Secretary for Southeast Asia. He was the Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York from 1995 to 1998 and Ambassador to

the Russian Federation from 1994 to 1995. He has been awarded the Public Administration Medal (Gold) and the Pingat Jasa Gemilang (Meritorious Service Medal) by the Singapore government. He was also awarded the Order of Bernardo O’Higgins with the rank of Gran Cruz by the President of the Republic of Chile and the Oman Civil Merit Order by the Sultan of Oman. Ambassador Kausikan was educated at Raffles Institution, the University of Singapore and Columbia University in New York.

Bates Gill is Professor of Asia Pacific Strategic Studies with the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. He was formerly the Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) from 2007 to 2012 and previously held senior positions leading China- and Asia-focused programs at the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. In 2015, the Chinese Foreign Affairs University named him as among the top 10 American China watchers. He held the 2016 Kippenberger Chair in Strategic Studies with the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington. His publications

have appeared in China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Survival, National Interest, Current History and New England Journal of Medicine, among others. A career-long observer of Chinese politics, foreign policy, and U.S.-China relations, he has published 8 books, including, most recently, China Matters: Getting it Right for Australia (LaTrobe University Press/Black Inc) (with Linda Jakobson).

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WANG Dong is Associate Professor in the School of International Studies and Executive Deputy Director of the Institute for China-U.S. People to People Exchange at Peking University. He concurrently serves as Secretary General of the Pangoal Institution, a leading China-based public policy think tank. He is A Member of the Steering Committee of the “East Asia Security Forum”, Chinese Overseas Educated Scholars Association, and Member of the Advisory Committee for the Carter Center-Global Times “US-China Young Scholars Forum”. Wang Dong

received his bachelor in law from Peking University and M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from University of California (UCLA). Dr Wang taught at York College of Pennsylvania, prior to joining the faculty of Peking University. He has written extensively on international relations and China’s foreign policy. His articles and reviews appear in Diplomatic History, The New York Times and other top academic and news outlets. Dr Wang has provided consultation to China’s State Council and Ministry of Foreign Affairs on matters important to Chinese foreign policy. He has served as Chinese delegate for Track-II dialogues, such as the Munich Security Conference and Shangri-La Dialogue.

Merriden Varrall is Director, East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Before joining the Lowy Institute Dr Varrall was the Assistant Country Director and Senior Policy Advisor at UNDP China, where she worked for over three years on China's role in the world, focusing on its international development cooperation policy. Merriden has spent almost eight years living and working in China, including lecturing in foreign policy at the China Foreign Affairs University and conducting fieldwork for her doctoral research. Prior to that she worked for the Australian Treasury. Merriden has a PhD in political

anthropology from Macquarie University, Sydney, and the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam. Her dissertation examined the ideational factors behind China's foreign policy. She has a Masters Degree in International Affairs from the Australian National University, and completed her undergraduate studies at the University of Technology Sydney.

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Toshihiro Nakayama is a Professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy at the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus (SFC). He is also an Adjunct Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). He was a Special Correspondent for the Washington Post at the Far Eastern Bureau (1993-94), Special Assistant at the Permanent Mission of Japan to the United Nations in New York (1996-98), Senior Research Fellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs (2004-06), Associate Professor at Tsuda College (2006-10), and Professor at Aoyama Gakuin University (2010-14). He was also a CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution (2005-06). Dr Nakayama received his

M.A. (1993) and Ph.D. (2001) from School of International Politics, Economy and Business (SIPEB), Aoyama Gakuin University. He has written two books and numerous articles on American politics, foreign policy and international relations. He appears regularly on Japanese media. Writes a monthly column for Japan News. Recipient of Nakasone Yasuhiro Award (Incentive Award) in 2014.

SHAO Yuqun is Director of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau Studies, Shanghai Institutes of International Studies (SIIS). Dr Shao is also a senior member of the Center for American Studies, SIIS. Her main research area covers American foreign policy in general, American policy towards Asia-Pacific, South and Central Asia in particular; China-U.S. relations and cross-Strait relations. She was a visiting fellow in Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC and the German Development Institute (DIE) in Bonn. She has published numerous papers and articles in both Chinese and

English. She is also a regular commentator for media, such as CCTV America and Oriental TV, on international politics and international relations.

Ian Storey is a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. He specializes in Asian security issues, with a focus on Southeast Asia. His research interests include Southeast Asia’s relations with the major powers, maritime security (especially the South China Sea dispute) and the roles and interests of Asian countries in the Arctic. His latest book is The South China Sea: Navigating Strategic and Diplomatic Tensions (co-edited, ISEAS, 2016). He is also the editor of the ISEAS academic journal Contemporary Southeast Asia. Dr Storey can be reached at ijstorey@iseas.edu.sg.

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Brendan Taylor is Interim Director of the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, Australian National University. He was Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, also at the ANU, from 2011-16. He is a specialist on great power strategic relations in the Asia-Pacific, East Asian ‘flashpoints’, and Asian security architecture. His publications have featured in such leading journals as The Washington Quarterly, International Affairs, Survival, Asia Policy, Asian Security, Review of International Studies and the Pacific Review. He is the author of Sanctions as Grand Strategy, which was published in the International Institute

for Strategic Studies (IISS) Adelphi series, as well as American Sanctions in the Asia Pacific (Routledge, 2010). He is also the editor (with William Tow) of Bilateralism, Multilateralism and Asia-Pacific security (Routledge, 2013); and (with Peter Dean and Stephan Fruehling) of Australia’s American Alliance (Melbourne University Press, 2016).

Natasha Hamilton-Hart is Director of the New Zealand Asia Institute and Professor in the Department of Management and International Business, University of Auckland Business School. Prior to joining the University of Auckland in 2011 she worked for ten years at the National University of Singapore. She is the author of Hard Interests, Soft Illusions: Southeast Asia and American Power.

Robert Ayson has been Professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University since 2010, working in close association with the Centre for Strategic Studies. He has also held academic positions with the ANU, Massey University and the University of Waikato, and official positions with the New Zealand government. Professor Ayson completed his MA as a Freyberg Scholar to the ANU and his PhD at King's College London as a Commonwealth Scholar to the UK. He is Adjunct Professor with the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and Honorary Professor with the New Zealand Defence Force Command and Staff College. Dr

Ayson is author of Thomas Schelling and the Nuclear Age (2004), Hedley Bull and the Accommodation of Power (2012) and most recently Asia’s Security (2015).

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Jamil Anderlini, a New Zealander who began his study of China at Victoria University of Wellington, is the Financial Times’ Asia Editor, overseeing coverage from Afghanistan to New Zealand, including China. Jamil joined the FT in China in 2007, becoming Beijing Bureau Chief in 2011. Prior to joining the FT he was at the South China Morning Post, serving as Beijing Business Correspondent for two years, and was Chief Editor of the China Economic Review. Jamil is an award-winning journalist and published author. He is fluent in Mandarin. In 2010, he was named Journalist of the Year at the Society of Publishers in Asia Editorial Excellence Awards and also won the Best Digital Award at the Amnesty International

Media Awards. In 2013, he was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum and short-listed for both Foreign Reporter of the Year at the Press Awards in the UK and the Orwell Prize, the UK's most prestigious prize for political writing. He is the author of the e-book The Bo Xilai Scandal, published by Penguin and Financial Times in 2012

CHAIRS

Peter Harris is a Senior Fellow of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre. Earlier he was Director of Asian Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria, Representative of the Ford Foundation in China, founding Director of the Asia New Zealand Foundation, head of the BBC Chinese Service, and head of Asia research at the International Secretariat of Amnesty International. He is also an international consultant on governance and democratic reform. He has published widely on Chinese affairs. His most recent book was China

at the Crossroads: What the Third Plenum Means for China, New Zealand and the World (edited for New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, Victoria University Press, 2014). He is currently working on a new edition of Sun Tzu’s Art of War for Random House (New York and London).

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Pip McLachlan is Director, Research and Engagement at the Asia New Zealand Foundation. Prior to joining the Foundation in February 2016, Pip worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, starting as a graduate recruit in 1998, with subsequent postings to Berlin and, more recently, Beijing. Onshore roles included human rights, climate change negotiations and the bilateral relationship with Europe. In 2015, Pip worked as Policy Manager for Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand.

NEW ZEALAND CONTEMPORARY CHINA RESERCH CENTRE

Tony Browne has been Chair of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre and Chair of the Victoria University of Wellington Confucius Institute since 2011 when he retired from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade after nearly 39 years as a New Zealand diplomat. He was New Zealand Ambassador to China from 2004 to 2009. He is a member of the Executive Board of the New Zealand China Council. He is also a Senior Consultant to Confucius Institute Headquarters in Beijing.

Jason Young is Acting Director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre and Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington. His research interests focus on Chinese politico-economic reform, Chinese foreign policy and New Zealand-China relations. Jason is author of China’s Hukou System (Palgrave 2013) and a number of journal articles and chapters in both English and Chinese as well as a frequent commentator in New Zealand and international media. Jason was the recipient of a 2013 Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fast Start to investigate investment in rural China. His current research focuses on Chinese international

relations writing on the Belt and Road initiative.

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THE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

David Capie is Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies and an Associate Professor in International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington. His research interests focus on conflict and security issues, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and New Zealand's foreign relations. His research has been supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, the East-West Center and the Royal Society of New Zealand's Marsden Fund. Dr Capie has been a Visiting Scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, and at LUISS Guido Carli in Rome. He is a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum Experts and Eminent Persons Group.

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The Symposium Organisers thank the

generous support of the following

sponsors:

Steering Committee

Advancing Our Asia-Pacific Trading Nation

Victoria University of Wellington

Australian High Commission New Zealand Cook Islands and Niue