Trying to understand vulnerability to environmental

change using historic case studies.

Evan Fraser (evan@env.leeds.ac.uk)Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment,

University of Leeds

http://uts.cc.utexas.edu/~marl/images/Tikal.JPG

http://www.yorku.ca/kdenning/vikings/greenland4greathall.jpeg

Schroter, D., et al. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310, 1333-1337.

Entitlements and Livelihoods

Bebbington, A. (1999) Capitals and capabilities: A framework for analyzing peasant viability, rural livelihoods and poverty. World Development, 27, 2021-2044.

Turner, B. et al. 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNAS. 100 (4). 8074-8079.

http://concubine.net/photography/images/0310_cig.jpghttp://www.discoverycanada.ca/images/Forest%20Fire.jpg

Diversity in ecosystem

High (less vulnerable) Low (more vulnerable)

Con

necti

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y o

f ecosyste

m

Low

(le

ss v

uln

era

ble

)H

igh

(m

ore

vu

lnera

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Low (less

vulnera

ble)

High (m

ore vuln

erable

)

Biom

ass in

eco

syst

em

Gunderson, L. and Holling, C. (2002) Panarchy. Washington D.C.: Island Press

Strengths Gaps

GCM Models Predictive power How to capture adaptation?

Livelihoods Captures adaptation through local context

Environmental sensitivity?

Vulnerability Framework

Establishes scales

How usable?

Landscape ecology

Environmental variables and changes through time

Doesn’t really work for human systems

Can we identify common characteristics of food systems that are “sensitive to changes in the environment” by studying past cases where environmental change led to famine?

Severity of “environmental change” (e.g. drought)

Impa

ct o

f en

viro

nmen

tal c

hang

e (e

.g.

yiel

d)

Resilient

Vulnerable

Harvest

Impacts

Economic

Impacts

Health impacts

Case I: The Irish Potato Famine

1845-50

• 1 million died, 1 million emigrated (1/4 of population) when the potato crop failed due to a fungal blight.

• Blights struck earlier in Irish History.

• The blight is still the most significant pest affecting potato crops world wide.

Therefore, what was different about Ireland in 1845 that made it more vulnerable?

Case II: The “Late-Victorian

Famines”

Photo from cover of: Davis, M. (2001) Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino famines and the making of the third world, London, Verso.

• Between 1875 and 1902 El Nino induced droughts killed an upwards of 45 million people in the monsoon region.

• Historically, droughts in this region are common. Famine (at least on this scale) is not.

• Why was this region so vulnerable in the late nineteenth century?

Case III: Ethiopia 1960-1997

year location no_killed 1965 Nationwide 20001969 Hamasion division 01973 Tigre, Wollo, North Shoa 1000001974 Wollo, Tigray, Kangra provinces 2000001975 Kangra 01977 Wollo, Tigre provinces 01978 Wollo, Tigre provinces 01983 Wollo, Gondar, Goe, Eritrea, Tigrai 01984 Wollo, Tigray, Eritrea, Shoa, Gonder, Harerge, Sidamo 3000001987 Eritrea, Tigray, Wello, Shewa, Gama, Gofa, Sidamo, Gondar, Bale 01987 Ogaden 3671989 Northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tigray, Wollo, Gondar, Harerge 01990 Eritrea, Tigray, Harerge 01991 Togray, Wello, Gondar, Ogaden, Harerghe, 01992 Eastern and Southern 01997 Somali state + Borena, Bale (Oromiya state) +South Ome zone 0

Ethiopian droughts, their location within the country, and the number of people killed during each drought since 1965.

Source: (World Health Organization and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 2006)

Drought years were identified by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Rainfall data was supplied by Dr Mike Hulme at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Crop data was from FAOSTAT.

Harv

est

Losses

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Rainfall anomaly index (high number is anomalous)

Har

vest

lo

sses

(H

igh

nu

mb

er i

s a

bad

har

vest

)

y = -0.0012x2 + 4.7031x - 4663.6

R2 = 0.8647

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Drought years were identified by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Rainfall data was supplied by Dr Mike Hulme at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Crop data was from FAOSTAT. P<0.01, R2 = 0.81, n=15

No institutional safety nets.

http://www.rootsweb.com/~irlker/images/glenevict.jpg

“Every benevolent attempt made to mitigate the effects of famine…serve but to enhance the evils resulting from overpopulation” – Sir Evelyn Baring (then England’s

finance minister referring to the 1876-79 famine in India

In the colonies…

In Ethiopia

• During crisis pro Soviet Junta called the Derge hid news of famine, only distributed food relief to political allies, and forcibly moved people from their homes.

Comenetz, J. & Caviedes, C. (2002) Climate variability, political crises, and historical population displacements in Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 4, 113-127.

People had few livelihood options.

In Ireland…

In the colonies…

• Transition from traditional economies to part of colonial empires meant poor people became labourers on large plantations. When crops failed, there were no alternatives.

– Davis, M. Late Victorian Famines. London: Verso. – Billig, M. (1992) The rationality of growing sugar in

Negros. Philippine Studies, 40, 156-7 – Polany, K. (1944) The great transformation, Boston,

Beacon Press.

In Ethiopia…

• In Wallo, agriculture employs over 90%. • Policy of “villagization” undermined

traditional communities.

– Unruh, J. (2001) The dilemma of African agrobiodiversity: Ethiopia and the role of food insecurity in conservation. Proceedings of the International Symposium Managing Biodiversity in Agricultural Ecosystems. Montreal, Canada, People, Land Management and Environmental Change (UNU/PLEC) The United Nations University.

– Meze-Hausken, E. (2000) Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5: 379-406.

Changes in agro-ecosystems.

http://it.stlawu.edu/~ptalag37/images/new/ireland/images/Untitled-22_jpg.jpg

Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?

Severity of Drought

Impa

ct o

f D

roug

ht

Are there other livelihoods or do people have access to capital?

Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?Harves

t Impact

s

Economic

Impacts

Health impacts

Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?

Severity of Drought

Impa

ct o

f D

roug

ht

Are there other livelihoods or do people have access to capital?

Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?

A vulnerable system…?

Harvest

Impacts

Economic

Impacts

Health impacts

Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?

Severity of Drought

Impa

ct o

f D

roug

ht

Are there other livelihoods / access to capital available?

Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?

A resilient system…?

Harvest

Impacts

Economic

Impacts

Health impacts

Agro-ecosystems

Fragile

Robust

Livelihoods

Few options

Many options

Institution capacity to respond to crisis

Low

High 1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

Movement in this direction indicates increasing vulnerability to environmental changes

Movement in this direction indicates increasing resilience to environmental changes

Evan FraserUniversity of Leeds

evan@env.leeds.ac.uk

Copies of papers available at:http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/~evan/Personal/default.htm

Robustness of agro-ecosystem

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Insti

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Range of l

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capita

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