turkey's foreign policy and the middle east
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Guest lecture at Metropolitni Univerzita Praha, Prague, Czech Republic, May 14, 2014.TRANSCRIPT
Turkey’s Foreign Policy and the Middle East
Dr. Altay AtlıBoğaziçi UniversityIstanbul, Turkey
Metropolitan University Prague, May 14, 2014.
Making Sense of Turkish Foreign Policy
Periods in Turkish Foreign Policy
• 1980s and 1990s:• Western oriented.• Preserving the status quo.• Military and civilian bureaucracy dominant.• Early steps of a multi-dimensional foreign policy.
• Early AKP period (2002-2007):• EU membership as the priority.• Attempts to diversify Turkey’s external relations and to improve
relations with neighboring countries.• Economics having a dual role in Turkey’s foreign policy.• Rise of new actors.• Identity considerations and ‘civilizational geo-politics’.
Periods in Turkish Foreign Policy
• Later AKP period (2007-2011):• EU no more the reference point.• Continuation of multi-dimensional foreign policy.• Zero problems with neighbors.• Building strong relations with Middle Eastern countries as equal
partners based on mutual economic interests and common heritage.• New geographical imagination.
• Post-Arab Spring period (2011-present):• Democracy promotion discourse.• Dilemma: Economic interests vs. pro-democracy position.• Overstretching of Turkey’s capabilities.• Increasing instability across the neighboring region.
Turkey and the Middle East
Questions:
•How did Turkey respond to the developments in its neighborhood during the Arab Spring period?
•What are the challenges faced by Turkey in this respect?
•How can Turkey contribute to a more stable Middle East in the post-Arab Spring period?
Turkey’s Response to the Arab Spring
Dilemma:•Taking a pro-democratic stance and discontinuing relations with autocratic regimes may jeopardize economic interests.•But: An indifferent or negative attitude towards the popular movements and/or support for authoritarian regimes can undermine Turkey’s image and ambitions of increasing regional influence.
Response:•Initial hesitation.•Eventual shift towards stronger support to the regime transformation processes in Egypt and Syria.•Over-engagement / despite lack of capabilities.
Turkey’s Response to the Arab Spring
Result:
•Economic relations weakening.•Democratization not in sight in the region.•Turkey “over-engaged itself in Syria, contributing to further instability and undermining both its own interests and international image in the process.•From “zero problems with neighbors” to “zero neighbors without problems”.
Turkey’s Response to the Arab Spring
Share of various regions in Turkey’s exports (%)
2004 2012 2013
MENA 16.0 34.0 30.0
EU 58.1 39.0 41.5
Non-EU Europe 6.9 9.3 9.4
North America 8.2 4.4 4.3
Asia 4.0 6.9 7.9
Rest of the World 6.8 6.4 6.9
Source: Turkish Statistics Institute
The Egypt Case
• Initial preference: Egypt to adopt the ‘Turkish model’ and become a reliable strategic partner for Turkey.
• Erdoğan’s 2011 Cairo talk: Emphasis on secular constitution.• Change of course after July 2012 elections in Egypt: Support for Muslim
Brothers.• July 2013 coup: Turkey does not recognize the new regime• “Turkish foreign policy emerges as one of the biggest losers.”• The Egypt issue causes relations with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to sour.
The Syria Case
• Initial preference: Playing a constructive role in Syria’s political opening, without a regime change. Did not work.
• Support for opposition forces.• Underestimation of the Assad regime’s strength• Overestimation of the opposition’s capabilities and coherence.• Hesitation of the international community.• Refugees from Syria. Growing security risks for Turkey.• The Sunni connection: Turkey’s drawn into sectarian conflicts of the
Middle East.
Turkey has overengaged itself in Syria, overstretched its capabilities, thus contributing to increasing instability. This undermines Turkey’s interests and the way it is perceived in the international arena.
Can Turkey really be a model for the region in this way??
The Road Ahead
Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East “needs a reset”: A more nuanced stance and concrete steps towards a restoration of Turkey’s influence in the region.
Instead of over-engagement, Turkey needs to be aware of its limitations and make efforts to increase its capabilities: economic and democratic.
Turkey’s economy needs to be placed on a sustainable growth track.
Democratization and the establishment of rule of law are necessary and urgent. Progress with the domestic Kurdish question is absolutely vital. But: the currently growing authoritarian style of governance of the AKP and the the country’s ongoing internal struggles do not help.
Revitalization of the EU anchor is crucial.
