tutorial de crystall ball - oracle

7/27/2019 Tutorial de Crystall Ball - Oracle

1/288

OracleCrystalBall

OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer

OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement

OracleCrystalBallClassroomStudentEdition

OracleCrystalBallClassroomFacultyEdition

OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagementforOracleHyperionEnterprisePlanningSuite

OracleCrystalBallSuite

User'sGuide

Release11.1.2


2/288

CrystalBallUser's Guide,11.1.2

Copyright 188,2012,Oracleand/orits affiliates.Allrights reserved.

Authors:EPMInformationDevelopmentTeam

OracleandJavaareregisteredtrademarksofOracleand/oritsaffiliates.Othernamesmaybetrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.

This softwareandrelateddocumentationareprovidedunderalicenseagreementcontaining restrictions onuseanddisclosureandareprotectedbyintellectualpropertylaws.Exceptas expresslypermittedinyourlicenseagreementorallowedbylaw,youmaynotuse,copy,reproduce,translate,broadcast,modify,license,transmit,distribute,exhibit,perform,publish,ordisplayanypart,inanyform,orbyanymeans.Reverseengineering,disassembly,ordecompilationofthis software,unless requiredbylaw forinteroperability,is prohibited.

Theinformationcontainedhereinissubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandisnotwarrantedtobeerror-free.Ifyoufind

anyerrors,pleasereportthemtousinwriting.

Ifthis is softwareorrelateddocumentationthatis deliveredtotheU.S.Governmentoranyonelicensing itonbehalfoftheU.S.Government,thefollowing noticeis applicable:

U.S.GOVERNMENTRIGHTS:

Programs,software,databases,andrelateddocumentationandtechnicaldatadeliveredtoU.S.Governmentcustomers

are"commercialcomputersoftware"or"commercialtechnicaldata"pursuanttotheapplicableFederalAcquisitionRegulationandagency-specific supplementalregulations.Assuch,theuse,duplication,disclosure,modification,andadaptationshallbesubjecttotherestrictionsandlicensetermssetforthintheapplicableGovernmentcontract,and,totheextentapplicablebytheterms oftheGovernmentcontract,theadditionalrights setforthinFAR52.229-1,CommercialComputerSoftwareLicense(December2009).OracleAmerica,Inc.,500OracleParkway,RedwoodCity,CA4065.

This softwareorhardwareis developedforgeneraluseinavarietyofinformationmanagementapplications.Itis notdevelopedorintendedforuseinanyinherentlydangerous applications,including applications thatmaycreateariskofpersonalinjury.Ifyouusethis softwareorhardwareindangerous applications,thenyoushallberesponsibletotakeall

appropriatefail-safe,backup,redundancy,andothermeasures toensureits safeuse.OracleCorporationandits affiliatesdisclaimanyliabilityforanydamages causedbyuseofthis softwareorhardwareindangerous applications.

Thissoftwareorhardwareanddocumentationmayprovideaccesstoorinformationoncontent,products,andservicesfromthirdparties.OracleCorporationanditsaffiliatesarenotresponsibleforandexpresslydisclaimallwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttothird-partycontent,products,andservices.OracleCorporationandits affiliates willnotberesponsibleforanyloss,costs,ordamages incurredduetoyouraccess tooruseofthird-partycontent,products,orservices.


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Contents

DocumentationAccessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Chapter1. Welcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

WhoShouldUseThisProgram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

WhatYouWillNeed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Scr

een

Captur

eNotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16GettingHelp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

TechnicalSupportandMore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Chapter2. CrystalBallOverview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

CrystalBallCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

DataExtraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

OtherCrystalBallFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

CrystalBallTools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

ProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

TrendAnalysiswithPredictor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

GoalOptimizationwithOptQuest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

StepsforUsingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

StartingandClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

StartingCrystalBallManually . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

StartingCrystalBallAutomatically . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

CrystalBallWelcomeScreen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

ClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

CrystalBallMenus,Toolbar,andRibbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

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CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

CrystalBallRibboninMicrosoftExcel2009orLater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

ResourcesforLearningCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Chapter3. DefiningModelAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

TypesofDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

DefiningAssumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

EnteringAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

AdditionalAssumptionFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

AlternateParameterSets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

FittingDistributionstoData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

SpecifyingCorrelationsBetweenAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

SettingAssumptionPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

UsingtheCrystalBallDistributionGallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

DisplayingtheDistributionGallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

DistributionGalleryWindow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

AddingandModifyingUser-definedDistributionsintheDistributionGallery . . . . . . 51

Creating,Managing,andSharingCategories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Chapter4. DefiningOtherModelElements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Defi

nin

gD

ecision

Var

iab

leCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53DefiningForecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

SettingForecastPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

WorkingwithCrystalBallData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Editing CrystalBallData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

SelectingandReviewingCrystalBallDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

SettingCellPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

SavingandRestoringModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

CompatibilityandFileConversionIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Chapter5. RunningSimulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

AboutCrystalBallSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Setting RunPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

SettingTrialsPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

SettingSamplingPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

SettingSpeedPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

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SettingOptionsPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

SettingStatisticsPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

FreezingCrystalBallDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

RunningSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

StartingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

StoppingandContinuingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

ResettingSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Single-steppingSimulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

CrystalBallControlPanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

ManagingChartWindows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

SavingandRestoringSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

SavingCrystalBallSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

RestoringCrystalBallSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

UsingSpreadsheetFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

RunningUser-DefinedMacros . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Chapter6. AnalyzingForecastCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

GuidelinesforAnalyzingSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

UsingForecastCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

DeterminingtheCertaintyLevel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

FocusingontheDisplayRange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

FormattingChartNumbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

ChangingtheDistributionViewandInterpretingStatistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

SettingForecastPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

SettingForecastChartPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

UsingAdditionalForecastFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

FittingaDistributiontoaForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

DefiningAssumptionsfromForecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

SettingChartPreferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

SettingPreferenceswithShortcutKeys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

BasicCustomizationInstructions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

SettingGeneralChartPreferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

SettingChartTypes,Colors,andMarkerLines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

CustomizingChartAxesandAxisLabels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

ApplyingSettingstoMultipleCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

ManagingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

OpeningCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

CopyingandPastingChartstootherApplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

PrintingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

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ClosingCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

DeletingCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

SelectingAssumptions,Forecasts,andotherDataTypes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

Chapter9. AnalyzingOtherCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

AboutCrystalBallCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

UsingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

CreatingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

CustomizingOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

UsingDistributionFittingwithOverlayCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

UsingTrendCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

CreatingTrendCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

CustomizingTrendCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

UsingSensitivityCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

BenefitsandLimitationsofSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

CreatingSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

SensitivityChartViews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

CustomizingSensitivityCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

UsingAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

CreatingandOpeningAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

CustomizingAssumptionCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

UsingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

CreatingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

CustomizingScatterCharts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

Chapter8. CreatingReportsandExtractingData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

CreatingReports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

BasicStepsforCreatingReports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

SettingReportOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

DefiningCustomReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

ReportProcessingNotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

ExtractingData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

DataExtractionExamples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

Chapter. CrystalBallTools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

UsingtheBatchFitTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

StartingtheBatchFitTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

UsingtheBatchFitWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

SettingBatchFitInputDataOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

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SettingBatchFitFittingOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

SettingBatchFitOutputOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

SettingUpBatchFitReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

RunningtheBatchFitTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

AnalyzingBatchFitResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

UsingtheCorrelationMatrixTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

StartingtheCorrelationMatrixTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

SelectingAssumptionstoCorrelate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

SettingCorrelationMatrixLocationandOrientationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

RunningtheCorrelationMatrixToolandLoadingData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

AnalyzingCorrelationMatrix Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

UsingtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

TornadoChart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

SpiderChart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

LimitationsoftheTornadoChartTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

StartingtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

SpecifyingaTornadoChartAnalysisTarget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

SpecifyingTornadoChartInputVariables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

SpecifyingTornadoChartOptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

RunningtheTornadoChartTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

AnalyzingTornadoChartResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

UsingtheBootstrapTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

StartingtheBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

UsingtheBootstrapWelcomePanel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

SpecifyingForecaststoAnalyzewiththeBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

SpecifyingaBootstrapToolMethod. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

SettingBootstrapOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

RunningtheBootstrapTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

AnalyzingBootstrapToolResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

UsingtheDecisionTableTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

StartingtheDecisionTableTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

UsingtheDecisionTableWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

SpecifyingaTargetForecastforDecisionTableAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

SelectingDecisionVariablesforDecisionTableTesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

SettingDecisionTableToolOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

RunningtheDecisionTableTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

AnalyzingDecisionTableResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

UsingtheScenarioAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

StartingScenarioAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

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SpecifyingaScenarioAnalysisTargetForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

SpecifyingScenarioAnalysisOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

RunningtheScenarioAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

AnalyzingScenarioAnalysisResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Usingthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

Startingthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Usingthe2DSimulationWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Specifyinga2DSimulationTargetForecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

SortingAssumptionsfor2DSimulationAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

Setting2DSimulationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

Runningthe2DSimulationTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Analyzing2DSimulationResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

UsingtheDataAnalysisTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

StartingtheDataAnalysistool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

UsingtheDataAnalysisWelcomePanel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

SpecifyingDataAnalysisInputData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

SettingDataAnalysisOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

RunningtheDataAnalysisTool. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

AnalyzingDataAnalysisResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

UsingtheCompareRunModesTool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

AppendixA. SelectingandUsingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

UnderstandingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

AProbabilityExample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

ContinuousandDiscreteProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

SelectingProbabilityDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

ProbabilityDistributionDescriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

BetaDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

BetaPERTDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

BinomialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

CustomDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

DiscreteUniformDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

ExponentialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

GammaDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

Geometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

HypergeometricDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

LogisticDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

LognormalDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

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MaximumExtremeDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

MinimumExtremeDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

NegativeBinomialDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

NormalDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

ParetoDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

PoissonDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

StudentstDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

TriangularDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

UniformDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

WeibullDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

Yes-NoDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224

UsingtheCustomDistribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

CustomDistributionExample1LoadingWeightedData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

CustomDistributionExample2LoadingMixedData . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

OtherImportantCustom Distribution Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

TruncatingDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

DistributionParameterSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230

UsingProbabilityFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

LimitationsofProbabilityFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

ProbabilityFunctionsandRandomSeeds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

SequentialSamplingwithCustomDistributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234

AppendixB. ExtremeSpeedCompatibilityIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

CompatibilityIssues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

Multiple-WorkbookModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

CircularReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

CrystalBallMicrosoftExcelFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

User-DefinedFunctionsandMacros . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

SpecialFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

UndocumentedBehaviorofStandardFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

IncompatibleRangeConstructs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Appe

ndixC. Crysta

lBa

llT

ut

oria

ls

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Tutorial1FuturaApartments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

StartingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242

OpeningtheExampleModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242

RunningSimulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

ResultsAnalysisDeterminingProfit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244

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TakeaLookBehindtheScenes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

ResettingandSingle-Stepping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

ClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

TutorialReview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

Tutorial2VisionResearch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

StartingCrystalBallandOpeningtheExampleModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

ReviewingtheVisionResearchScenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

DefiningAssumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

AppendixD. UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

PreparingtoUseProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

ActivatingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

SettingCapabilityCalculationOptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290

SettingSpecificationLimitsandTargets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291

AnalyzingProcessCapabilityResults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291

ViewingCapabilityMetrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292

ViewingLSL,USL,andTargetMarkerLines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292

ExtractingCapabilityMetrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293

IncludingCapabilityMetricsinReports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

x Contents


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DocumentationAccessibility

ForinformationaboutOracle'scommitmenttoaccessibility,visittheOracleAccessibilityProgramwebsiteat

http://www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?ctx=acc&id=docacc.

AccesstoOracleSupportOraclecustomershaveaccesstoelectronic supportthroughMyOracleSupport.Forinformation,visithttp://

www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?ctx=acc&id=infoorvisithttp://www.oracle.com/pls/topic/lookup?

ctx=acc&id=tr

sifyouar

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11


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12 DocumentationAccessibility


13/288

Welcome

InThisChapter

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

WhoShouldUseThisProgram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

WhatYouWillNeed... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

GettingHelp .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

TechnicalSupportandMore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

IntroductionThisguidedescribeshowtousethecurrentreleaseofthefollowingOracleproducts:

! OracleCrystalBall(includingClassroomFacultyandStudentEditions)

! OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer

! OracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement

Unlessotherwisenoted,whenthisguidereferstoCrystalBall,theinformationappliestoall

versions.

CrystalBallisagraphicallyorientedforecastingandriskanalysisprogramthattakesthe

uncertaintyoutofdecision-making.Itcanhelpyouanswerquestionssuchas,Willwestay

underbudgetifwebuildthisfacility?or,Whatarethechancesthisprojectwillfinishontime?

or,Howlikelyarewetoachievethislevelofprofitability?

Unlikeotherforecastingandriskanalysisprograms,youdonothavetolearnunfamiliarformats

orspecialmodelinglanguages.Togetstarted,allyouhavetodoiscreateaspreadsheet.From

there,thismanualguidesyoustepbystep,explainingCrystalBallterms,procedures,andresults.

AndyoudogetresultsfromCrystalBall.ThroughatechniqueknownasMonteCarlosimulation,

CrystalBallforecaststheentirerangeofresultspossibleforagivensituation.Italsoshowsyou

confidencelevels,soyouwillknowthelikelihoodofanyspecificeventtakingplace.

Introduction 13


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WhoShouldUseThisProgramCrystalBallisfordecision-makers,fromtheanalystexploringthepotentialfornewmarketsto

thescientistevaluatingexperimentsandhypotheses.CrystalBallhasbeendevelopedwithawide

rangeofspreadsheetusesandusersinmind.

YoudonotneedhighlyadvancedstatisticalorcomputerknowledgetouseCrystalBalltoitsfull

potential.Allyouneedisabasic workingknowledgeofthepersonalcomputerandtheabilitytocreateaspreadsheetmodel.

WhatYouWillNeedCrystalBallrunsonseveralversionsofMicrosoftWindowsandMicrosoftExcel.Foracomplete

listofrequiredhardwareandsoftware,seethesystemrequirementslistintheOracleCrystalBall

InstallationandLicensingGuide.

AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSetTheOracleCrystalBallUser'sGuideisintendedforstudents,analysts,engineers,executives,and

otherswhowanttolearnhowtousethemainfeaturesofCrystalBall.Asmentionedearlier,

unlessotherwisenoted,theCrystalBalldocumentationpertainstoallcurrentCrystalBall

releases.

TheOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagementIntegrationGuidecontainsspecial

CrystalBallintegrationinformationforusersofCrystalBallEPMandrelatedproducts.

TheOracleCrystalBallInstallationandLicensingGuidedescribeshow toinstallandlicense

CrystalBall.

Forinformationaboutdistributiondefaultsandformulasplusotherstatisticalinformation,topicsforadvancedusers,andexamples,seetheOracleCrystalBallReferenceandExamples

Guide.

TheOracleCrystalBallPredictorUser'sGuide,OracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuest

User'sGuide,OracleCrystalBallDeveloper'sGuideandOracleCrystalBallAPIfor.NET

Developer'sGuideofferadditionalinformationaboutthoseCrystalBallproducts.Noticethat

theOracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuestUser'sGuideisonlyforusersofCrystalBall

DecisionOptimizer.

ThisOracleCrystalBallUser'sGuideincludesthefollowingadditionalchaptersandappendices:

!

Ch

apter

2,Cr

ystalBallOver

viewIntroducesCrystalBallandexplainshowitusesspreadsheetmodelstohelpwithriskanalysis

andmanytypesofdecision-making.

! Chapter3,DefiningModelAssumptions

Describeshow todefineassumptioncellsinmodelsandhow tousetheCrystalBalll

DistributionGallery.

14 Welcome


15/288

! Chapter4,DefiningOtherModelElements

Describeshow todefinedecisionvariablecellsandforecastcellsinmodels.Italsoexplains

howtosetcellpreferences.

! Chapter5,RunningSimulations

Providesstep-by-stepinstructionsforsettingupandrunningasimulationinCrystalBall.

! Chapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts

ExplainshowtouseCrystalBallspowerfulanalyticalfeaturestointerprettheresultsofa

simulation,focusingonforecastcharts.

! Chapter9,AnalyzingOtherCharts

Providesadditionalinformationtohelpyouanalyzeandpresenttheresultsofthe

simulationsusingadvancedchartingfeatures.

! Chapter8,CreatingReportsandExtractingData

ProvidesinformationtohelpyoushareCrystalBalldataandgraphicswithother

applications,anddescribeshowtopreparereportswithchartsanddata.

! Chapter,CrystalBallTools

DescribestoolsthatextendthefunctionalityofCrystalBall,suchastheTornadoChartand

DecisionTabletools.

! AppendixA,SelectingandUsingProbabilityDistributions

Describesallthepre-definedprobabilitydistributionsusedtodefineassumptionsinCrystal

Ball,andincludessuggestionsonhow tochooseandusethem.

! Appendix B,ExtremeSpeedCompatibilityIssues

DiscussestheoptionalExtremeSpeedfeatureavailablewithCrystalBallanddescribesits

benefitsandcompatibilityissues.

! AppendixC,CrystalBallTutorials

DemonstratesCrystalBallbasicsandshowshow tousemoreadvancedfeaturesinavariety

ofsettings.

! AppendixD,UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures

DiscussestheprocesscapabilityfeaturesthatcanbeactivatedtosupportSixSigma,DFSS,

Leanprinciples,andsimilarqualityprograms.

! Glossary

DefinestermsspecifictoCrystalBallandotherstatisticaltermsusedinthismanual.

ForadditionalinformationaboutmaximizingtheaccuracyandspeedofCrystalBallsimulations

andfindingrelatedpublications,seetheOracleCrystalBallReferenceandExamplesGuide.

AbouttheCrystalBallDocumentationSet 15


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ScreenCaptureNotesAllthescreencapturesinthisdocumentweretakenusingaCrystalBallRunPreferencesrandom

seedsettingof,unlessotherwisenoted.

Duetoroundingdifferencesbetweenvarioussystemconfigurations,youmayobtainslightly

differentcalculatedresultsthanthoseshownintheexamples.

GettingHelp

" TodisplayonlinehelpinavarietyofwaysasyouworkinCrystalBall:

! ClicktheHelpbutton, ,inadialog.

! ClicktheHelptoolintheCrystalBalltoolbarorribboninMicrosoftExcel.

! IntheMicrosoftExcelmenubar,selectHelp,thenCrystalBall,andthenCrystalBallHelp.

! IntheDistributionGalleryandotherdialogs,pressF1.

Note: InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clickHelp, ,atendoftheCrystalBallribbon.

NoticethatifyoupressF1inMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,MicrosoftExcelhelpopens

unlessyouareviewingtheDistributionGalleryoranotherCrystalBalldialog.

Tip: Whenhelpopens,theSearchtabisselected.ClicktheContentstabtoviewatableofcontents

forhelp.

ForatableofHelpcommands,seeTable3onpage31.

TechnicalSupportandMoreOracleoffersavarietyofresourcestohelpyouuseCrystalBall,suchastechnicalsupport,

training,andotherservices.Forinformation,see:

http://www.oracle.com/crystalball

16 Welcome


17/288

CrystalBallOverview

InThisChapter

AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

OtherCrystalBallFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

Steps

forUsingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

StartingandClosingCrystalBall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

CrystalBallMenus,Toolbar,andRibbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28

Resources

for

Learning

Crystal

Ball . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31

AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis

Subtopics

! QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels

! MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall

CrystalBallisananalyticaltoolthathelpsexecutives,analysts,andothersmakedecisionsby

performingsimulationsonspreadsheetmodels.Theforecaststhatresultfromthesesimulationshelpquantifyareasofrisksodecision-makerscanhaveasmuchinformationaspossibleto

supportwisedecisions.

ThebasicprocessforusingCrystalBallisto:

1. Buildaspreadsheetmodelthatdescribesanuncertainsituation(QuantifyingRiskswith

SpreadsheetModelsonpage18).

2. Runasimulationonit(MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBallonpage1).

3. Analyzetheresults(CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andDataonpage20).

TopicsinthissectionbuildafoundationforunderstandingthemanywaysCrystalBallandrelatedOracleproductscanhelpyouminimizeriskandmaximizesuccessinmanydecision-

makingenvironments.

AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis 19


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QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModels

Subtopics

! AssumptionRangesModelInput

! ForecastRangesModelOutput

! AnalyzingCertaintyModelResults

Amodelisaspreadsheetthathasmovedfrombeingadataorganizertoananalysistool.Amodel

representstherelationshipsbetweeninputandoutputvariablesusingfunctions,formulas,and

data.Asthemodelexpands,itmorecloselymatchesthebehaviorofareal-worldscenario.

CrystalBallworkswithspreadsheetmodelscreatedinMicrosoftExcelandcompatibleOracle

applications,suchasOracleHyperionSmartViewforOffice,tohelpyouidentifyandquantify

riskandtheprobabilityofsuccess.

Riskisusuallyassociatedwithuncertainty,whereriskincludesthepossibilityofanundesirable

eventcoupledwithseverity.Itisimportanttoidentifyrisksandtodeterminehow significant

theyare.

Afteryouidentifyrisks,amodelcanhelpyouquantifythem.Quantifyingariskmeans

determiningthechancesthattheriskwilloccurandthecostifitdoes,tohelpyoudecidewhether

ariskisworthtaking.Forexample,ifthereisa25%chanceofrunningoverschedule,costing

you$100,thatmaybeariskyouarewillingtotake.Butifyouhavea5%chanceofrunningover

schedule,knowingthatthereisa$10,000penalty,youmaybelesswillingtotakethatrisk.

Findingthecertaintyofachievingaparticularresultisoftenthegoalofmodelanalysis.Risk

analysistakesamodelandseeswhateffectchangingdifferentvalueshasonthebottomline.Risk

analysiscan:

! Contributetobetterdecision-makingbyquicklyexaminingallpossiblescenarios

! Identifywhichvariablesmostaffectthebottom-lineforecast

! Exposetheuncertaintyinamodel,leadingtoabettercommunicationofrisk

AssumptionRangesModelInput

Foreachuncertainvariableinasimulation,youcandefinethepossiblevalueswithaprobability

distribution.Asimulationcalculatesnumerousscenariosofamodelbyrepeatedlypickingvalues

fromtheprobabilitydistributionfortheuncertainvariablesandusingthosevaluesforthecell.

InCrystalBall,distributionsandassociatedscenarioinputvaluesarecalledassumptions.They

areenteredandstoredinassumptioncells.Formoreinformationonassumptionsand

pr

ob

ab

ilitydistr

ibu

tion

s,seeAb

ou

tAssum

ption

san

dPr

ob

ab

ilityD

istr

ibu

tion

son

page34.

ForecastRangesModelOutput

Sincescenariosproduceassociatedresults,CrystalBallalsokeepstrackoftheforecastsforeach

scenario.Theseareimportantoutputsofthemodel,suchastotals,netprofit,orgrossexpenses.

Foreachforecast,CrystalBallremembersthecellvalueforallthetrials(scenarios).After

18 CrystalBallOverview


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hundredsorthousandsoftrials,youcanviewsetsofvalues,thestatisticsoftheresults(suchas

themeanforecastvalue),andthecertaintyofanyparticularvalue.Chapter6providesmore

informationaboutchartsofforecastresultsandhow tointerpretthem.

AnalyzingCertaintyModelResults

Th

efor

ecastr

esu

ltsin

gr

aph

icandnum

er

icform

sh

owth

evalu

esgen

er

atedfor

each

for

ecastandalsotheprobabilityofobtaininganyvalue.CrystalBallnormalizestheseprobabilitiesto

calculateanotherimportantnumber:thecertainty.Forecastcharts(Table1,CrystalBall

Charts,onpage20)arekeyanalysistools.

ThechanceofanyforecastvaluefallingbetweenInfinityand+Infinityisalways100%.

However,thechanceorcertaintyofthatsameforecastbeingatleastzero(whichyoumay

wanttocalculatetomakesurethatyoumakeaprofit)maybeonly45%.Foranyrangeyou

define,CrystalBallcalculatestheresultingcertainty.Thisway,notonlydoyouknow thatthe

companyhasachancetomakeaprofit,butyoucanalsoquantifythatchancebysayingthatthe

companyhasa45%chanceofmakingaprofitonaventure(aventureyoumay,therefore,decide

toskip).

MonteCarloSimulationandCrystalBall

Spreadsheetriskanalysisusesspreadsheetmodelsandsimulationtoanalyzetheeffectsofvarying

inputsonoutputsofthemodeledsystem.

Traditionalmethodsofriskanalysishavelimitations:

! Changingonlyonespreadsheetcellatatimemakesitvirtuallyimpossibletoexplorethe

entirerangeofpossibleoutcomes.

! What-ifanalysisalwaysresultsinsingle-pointestimatesthatdonotindicatethelikelihood

ofachievinganyparticularoutcome.Whilesingle-pointestimatesmaytellyouwhatispossible,theydonottellyouwhatisprobable.

CrystalBallusesMonteCarlosimulationtoovercomelimitationsencounteredwithtraditional

spreadsheetanalysis:

! Youcandescribearangeofpossiblevaluesforeachuncertaincellinaspreadsheet.

Everythingyouknowabouteachassumptionisexpressedallatonce.Forexample,youcan

definethebusinessphonebillforfuturemonthsasanyvaluebetween$2500and$3950,

insteadofusingasingle-pointestimateof$3000.CrystalBallthenusesthedefinedrangein

asimulation.

! WithMonteCarlosimulation,CrystalBalldisplaysresultsinaforecastchartthatshowstheentirerangeofpossibleoutcomesandthelikelihoodofachievingeachofthem.Inaddition,

CrystalBallkeepstrackoftheresultsofeachscenarioforyou.

CrystalBallimplementsMonteCarlosimulationinarepetitivethree-stepprocess,describedin

TakeaLookBehindtheScenesonpage245.

AboutModelBuildingandRiskAnalysis 1


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MonteCarlosimulationrandomlygeneratesarangeofvaluesforassumptionsthatyoudefine.

Theseinputsfeedintoformulasdefinedinforecastcells.Youcanusethisprocesstoexplore

rangesofoutcomes,expressedasgraphicalforecasts.Youcanview anduseforecastchartsto

estimatetheprobability,orcertainty,ofaparticularoutcome.

MonteCarlosimulationwasnamedforMonteCarlo,Monaco,wheretheprimaryattractions

arecasinoscontaininggamesofchance.Therandombehavioringamesofchanceroulette

wheels,dice,andslotmachinesissimilartohow MonteCarlosimulationselectsvariablevaluesatrandomtosimulateamodel.Whenyourolladie,youknowthateithera1,2,3,4,5,

or6willcomeup,butyoudonotknowwhichforanyparticulartrial.Itisthesamewiththe

variablesthathaveaknownrangeofvaluesbutanuncertainvalueforanyparticulartimeor

event(forexample,interestrates,staffingneeds,stockprices,inventory,phonecallsperminute).

CrystalBallCharts, Reports, andData

Subtopics

! Crystal

Ball

Charts! Reports

! DataExtraction

CrystalBalloffersseveraltypesofchartsandreportstodisplayresultsgraphicallyand

numerically.Youcanalsoextractsimulationvaluesforuseinotherapplications.Theseanalysis

toolsareallaccessedthroughtheAnalyzemenuortheAnalyzegroupontheCrystalBallribbon.

CrystalBallCharts

Ch

ar

tsar

eth

em

ain

an

alysistoolspr

ovidedin

Cr

ystalBall.Each

ch

ar

toffer

ssever

alviewsand

manycustomizationsettingstoenhancedatapresentation.

Table1 CrystalBallCharts

NameandReference

Example Description

Forecastcharts(Chapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts)

ForecastchartsarethebasictoolforCrystalBallresultsanalysis.Theyshowarangeofvaluesrepresentingpossibleandprobablevaluesforagivenforecastbasedonassumptiondefinitions.Youcanuseforecastchartstoevaluatethecertaintyofobtainingaparticularvalueorrangeofforecast

values.

You

can

also

fit

standard

distributions

tochartedforecasts.



21/288

NameandReference

Example Description

Overlaycharts(UsingOverlayChartsonpage10)

Overlaychartsdisplayfrequencydatafrommultipleforecastsinonelocationsoyoucancomparedifferencesorsimilaritiesamongthem.Youcancustomizethemandfitdistributionsasforforecastcharts.

Trendcharts(UsingTrendChartsonpage114)

Trendchartsdisplaythecertaintyrangesofallforecastsonasinglechartasaseriesofpatternedbands.Forexample,thebandthatrepresentsthe0%certaintyrangeshowstherangeofvaluesintowhichaforecasthasa0%chanceoffalling.

Sensitivitycharts(UsingSensitivityChartsonpage120)

Sensitivitychartsuserankcorrelationstoshowtheinfluenceofeachassumptioncellonaparticularforecastcell,indicatingwhichassumptionsarethemostorleastimportantinthemodel.

Scattercharts(UsingScatterChartsonpage

131)

Scatterchartsshowcorrelations,dependencies,andotherrelationshipsbetweenpairsofforecastsandassumptionsplottedagainsteachother.

Rela

tionships

a

re

plotted

a

s

a

cloud

of

points

orsymbolsalignedinagrid.InMatrixview,eachselectedvariableisplottedagainsttheotherselectedvariablestoshowtherelationshipsamongthem.

Assumptioncharts

(UsingAssumptionChartsonpage128)

Assumptionchartsshowrandomvaluesforthecurrentsimulationlayeredovertheassumptionsidealprobabilitydistribution.Theyaregeneratedautomaticallyeachtimeasimulationruns.

OptQuestcharts(GoalOptimizationwithOptQuestonpage

25)

N/A OptQuestcharts,availableinCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer,displayvariableoptimizationresults.

CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData 21


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NameandReference

Example Description

Predictorcharts(TrendAnalysiswithPredictoronpage25)

N/A Predictorchartsdisplaytheresultsoftime-seriesandlinearregressionanalysesperformedbythePredictortoolinCrystalBall.

Reports

CrystalBallhaspowerfulreportingcapabilities.Youcancustomizereportstoincludethe

followingchartsanddata:

! Assumption,forecast,overlay,trend,sensitivity,scatter,and(optionally)OptQuestcharts

! Forecastsummaries,statistics,percentiles,andfrequencycounts

! Assumptionparameters

! Decisionvariables

ReportsarecreatedasMicrosoftExcelworkbooks.Youcanmodify,print,orsavethereportin

thesamewayasanyotherworkbook(CreatingReportsonpage13)

Figure1showspartofaforecastreportfortheVisionResearchexamplemodel.



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Figure1 SampleForecastReport

DataExtractionYoucanextractforecastinformationgeneratedbyasimulationmanuallyorautomaticallyand

placeitinaMicrosoftExcelworkbook.Youcanextractseveraltypesofdata(ExtractingData

onpage144).

Figure2showsstatisticsdataextractedfromasalesspreadsheet.

Figure2 ExtractedStatisticsData

CrystalBallCharts,Reports,andData 23


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OtherCrystalBallFeatures

Subtopics

! CrystalBallTools

! ProcessCapabilityFeatures

! TrendAnalysiswithPredictor

! Goal

Optimization

with

OptQuest

TopicsinthissectionintroduceadditionalfeaturesofCrystalBall.

CrystalBallTools

TheRunmenuoffersavarietyofspecialtoolsforanalyzingdataanddisplayingresultsinmore

detail.SelectRun,thenMoreToolstousetoolsdiscussedinthefollowingsections(inMicrosoft

Excel2009orlater,selectMoreToolsintheToolsgroupoftheCrystalBallribbon):

! UsingtheBatchFitToolonpage14Automaticallyfitsselectedprobability

distributionstomultipledataseries

! UsingtheCorrelationMatrixToolonpage156Rapidlydefinesandautomates

correlationsofassumptions

! UsingtheTornadoChartToolonpage161Individuallyanalyzestheimpactofeach

modelvariableonatargetoutcome

! UsingtheBootstrapToolonpage168Addressesthereliabilityandaccuracyofforecast

statistics

! UsingtheDecisionTableToolonpage194Evaluatestheeffectsofalternatedecisions

inasimulationmodel

! UsingtheScenarioAnalysisToolonpage198Displayswhatinputscreatedparticular

outputs

! Usingthe2DSimulationToolonpage182Independentlyaddressesuncertaintyand

variabilityusingatwo-dimensionalsimulation

! UsingtheDataAnalysisToolonpage18Importsoneormoreseriesofrawdataand

performsavarietyofanalysesonthem

! UsingtheCompareRunModesToolonpage13ForusersofCrystalBallDecision

Optimizer,determineshowmuchfasteramodelrunsinExtremeSpeed

! IntegrationtoolsAvailabletousersofCrystalBallEPMandrelatedproducts,enable

CrystalBallsimulationsandtime-seriesanalysestobeusedwithOracleHyperionPlanning,OracleHyperionStrategicFinance,andOracleHyperionSmartViewforOffice

AlloftheseexcepttheintegrationtoolsarediscussedinChapter,CrystalBallTools.The

integrationtoolsareonlyavailableinOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformanceManagement

andrelatedproductsandaredescribedintheOracleCrystalBallEnterprisePerformance

ManagementIntegrationGuide.



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Additionaltools,PredictorandOptQuest,arealsolistedontheRunmenu(ortheToolsgroup

inMicrosoftExcel2009orlater)incertaineditionsofCrystalBall.Foradescriptionofthese

features,seeTrendAnalysiswithPredictoronpage25andGoalOptimizationwith

OptQuestonpage25.

Process

Ca

pa

bilit

yFeat

ures

IfyouuseSixSigmaorotherqualitymethodologies,CrystalBallsprocesscapabilityfeatures

canhelpyouimprovequalityintheorganization.Forabriefdescriptionofthesefeaturesand

howtousethem,seeAppendixD,UsingtheProcessCapabilityFeatures.

TrendAnalysiswithPredictorYoucanusePredictortoprojecttrendsbasedontime-seriesdata,suchasseasonaltrends.

Forexample,youcanlookathomeheatingfuelsalesforpreviousyearsandestimatesalesfor

thecurrentyear.Youcanalsorunregressionanalysisonrelatedtime-seriesdata.

FormoreinformationaboutPredictor,seetheOracleCrystalBallPredictorUser'sGuide.

GoalOptimizationwithOptQuestDecisionvariablesarevariablesyoucancontrol,suchasproductpricingorinvestmentlevels.

IfyouhaveOptQuest,anoptionalfeatureavailableinCrystalBallDecisionOptimizer,youcan

useittofindthebestvaluesforthedecisionvariablestoobtainthepreferredoutcomes.

Forexample,youcanfindtheoptimalinvestmentmixthatmaximizestheprobabilityofa

portfoliosreturnbeingaboveacertainthreshold.

FormoreinformationaboutOptQuest,seetheOracleCrystalBallDecisionOptimizerOptQuest

User'sGuide.

StepsforUsingCrystalBallFollowthesegeneralstepstocreateandinterpretsimulationswithCrystalBall.Theremaining

chaptersprovidedetailedinstructions:

1. CreateaspreadsheetmodelinMicrosoftExcelformatwithdataandformulacellsthat

representthesituationtoanalyze(QuantifyingRiskswithSpreadsheetModelsonpage

18).2. StartCrystalBall(StartingandClosingCrystalBallonpage26).

3. Loadaspreadsheetmodel.

4. UsingCrystalBall,defineassumptioncellsandforecastcells.Ifappropriateforthesituation,

youcanalsodefinedecisionvariablecells.

StepsforUsingCrystalBall 25


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Formoreinformation,seeEnteringAssumptionsonpage34andcontinueonwith

Chapter4.

5. Setrunpreferencesforthesimulation(Setting RunPreferencesonpage65).

6. Runthesimulation(StartingSimulationsonpage91).

9. Analyzetheresults.SeeUsingForecastChartsonpage98forsuggestions.

8. ConsiderusingPredictororOptQuest,ifavailable,forfurtheranalysis.. TakeadvantageofthemanyresourcesavailabletohelpyougetthemostoutofCrystalBall.

StartingandClosingCrystalBallYoucanstartCrystalBallmanuallyoryoucansetupCrystalBalltostartautomaticallywhenever

youstartMicrosoftExcel.

StartingCrystalBallManually

" TostartCrystalBallmanually,inWindows,selectStart,thenAllPrograms,thenOracleCrystal

Ball,andthenCrystalBall.

MicrosoftExcelopenswiththeCrystalBallmenusandtoolbar.IfMicrosoftExcelisalready

runningwhenyougivethiscommand,CrystalBallopensanew instanceofMicrosoftExcel.

StartingCrystalBallAutomatically

" TosetCrystalBalltostartautomaticallyeachtimeyoustartMicrosoftExcel:

1 InWindows,selectStart,thenAllPrograms,thenOracleCrystalBall,andthenApplication

Manager.

2 SelectAutomaticallylaunchCrystalBallwhenMicrosoftExcelstarts.

3 Click

OK.

Note: YoucanalsousetheMicrosoftExcelAdd-insManagertoopenCrystalBallwithin

MicrosoftExcelwhenMicrosoftExcelisalreadyopenandtocloseCrystalBallwithout

closingMicrosoftExcel.Forinstructions,seetheOracleCrystalBallInstallationand

LicensingGuide.

CrystalBallWelcomeScreenThefirsttimeyoustartCrystalBall,theWelcomescreenopens,similartoFigure3,following.

DependingontheCrystalBallversion,thelicensefeatures,andwhetheryouareusinga

purchasedoratrialversion,thescreenmaydiffersomewhatfromthisillustration.



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Figure3 CrystalBallWelcomeScreen

You

can

u

seth

eWelcom

escr

een

to:! SetcertainpreferencesaccordingtohowyouuseCrystalBall

! Enableaccessibilitypreferencestoaccommodatethosewithvisualimpairments(seethe

onlineOracleCrystalBallAccessibilityGuide).

! View theCrystalBallWebsite

! DisplaytheOracleTechnologyNetwork,whereyoucandownloadapplicationsand

documentation

! DisplaytheCrystalBallonlinedocumentationinHTMLformat

! DisplayinstructionsforlicensingCrystalBall

! ClosethescreenandstartusingCrystalBall

! Displaythedialogforopeningworkbookfiles

! DisplaytheOracleCrystalBallExamplesGuideandopenexampleworkbooks

Foranexplanationoftheprimaryapplicationtypeandaccessibilitysettings,clickthe

button.

ClosingCrystalBall

" TocloseCrystalBall,useoneofthefollowingoptions:

! Right-clicktheCrystalBallicon, ,intheWindowstaskbarandselectClose,or

! CloseMicrosoftExcel.

Ifyouwant,youcanselectRun,andthenResetSimulationtoresetthemodelandthenselect

File,thenSavetosaveitbeforeyoucloseCrystalBall.

StartingandClosingCrystalBall 29


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CrystalBallMenus, Toolbar, andRibbon

Subtopics

! CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003

! CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003

! CrystalBallRibboninMicrosoftExcel2009orLater

ThissectiondescribestheCrystalBalltoolbarandassociatedmenusforCrystalBallusedwith

MicrosoftExcel2003.ItalsodescribestheCrystalBallribbonusedwithMicrosoftExcel2009

orlaterversions.ForadditionalinformationaboutCrystalBallmenusandcommands,including

tablesofkeyboardequivalents,seetheOracleCrystalBallAccessibilityGuide.

CrystalBallMenusinMicrosoftExcel2003WhenCrystalBallopensinMicrosoftExcel2003,thefollowingspecialmenusareaddedtothe

standardMicrosoftExcelmenus:

! Definemenuenablesyoutodefineandselectassumptions,decisionvariables,and

forecasts;freezesassumptions,decisionvariables,andforecastssotheyarenotincludedin

simulations;alsoletsyoucopy,pasteandclearassumptions,decisionvariables,andforecasts

aswellassetcellpreferences.

! Runmenustarts,stops,continues,andresetssimulations;runssimulationsastepata

time;ifavailable,startsOptQuestorPredictor;openstheCrystalBalltools:BatchFit,

CorrelationMatrix,TornadoChart,Bootstrap,DecisionTable,ScenarioAnalysis,2D

Simulation;savesandrestoressimulationresults;andsetsrunpreferences.

! Analyzemenucreatesandopenschartsandreports;cascadesandcloseswindows;and

extractsdata.

! Help,thenCrystalBallmenuOpensonlinehelpforCrystalBall;displaysthefollowing

items:theAboutBoxforCrystalBall,OracleCrystalBallUser'sGuidesandother

documentationinAdobeAcrobatformat,CrystalBallexamples,theCrystalBallWelcome

Screen,letsyouaccessCrystalBalllicensingfeatures,andmore.

Formoreinformationoneachcommand,viewonlinehelpfromwithinCrystalBallusingthe

Helpmenuorbutton.

CrystalBallToolbarinMicrosoftExcel2003TohelpyouuseCrystalBallinMicrosoftExcel2003,acustomizedtoolbarprovidesinstant

accesstothemostcommonlyusedmenucommands(Figure4onpage2).



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DefineCommands

TheDefinecommandsspecifysettingsforthethreetypesofCrystalBalldatacells:assumptions,

decisionvariables,andforecastsandalsoenableyoutoperformthefollowingtasks:

! Setcellpreferences

! SelectCrystalBalldatacells

! Copy,paste,andclearCrystalBalldata

! FreezedatacellstoexcludethemfromCrystalBallsimulations

Fordetails,seeChapter3,DefiningModelAssumptionsandChapter4,DefiningOther

ModelElements..

RunCommands

YoucanusethebasicRuncommandstostart,stop,continue,reset,andsingle-stepthrough

CrystalBallsimulations.YoucanuseotherRuncommandsto:

! SaveorrestoreCrystalBallsimulationresults

! Setrunpreferences,whichcontrolthenumberoftrials,thesamplingmethod,andother

simulationoptions

Fordetails,seeChapter5,RunningSimulations.

AnalyzeCommands

YoucanusetheAnalyzecommandsto:

! CreateandviewCrystalBallcharts

! Createreports

! Extractdataforexternaluse

Fordetails,seeChapter6,AnalyzingForecastCharts,Chapter9,AnalyzingOtherCharts,

andChapter8,CreatingReportsandExtractingData.

ToolsCommands

YoucanusetheToolscommandstoaccesstheCrystalBalltools,Predictor,andOptQuestwith

anappropriatelicense.Fordetails,seeChapter,CrystalBallTools,

HelpCommands

TheHelpcommandsdisplayonlinehelp,onlinedocuments,examplemodels,theCrystalBall

AboutBox,andmore(Table3,CrystalBallHelpCommands,onpage31).



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Table3 CrystalBallHelpCommands

Command CommandAction

[CrystalBall]Help,

DisplaysonlinehelpforCrystalBall

Resources,

IntheCrystalBallribbon,displaysmenusforCrystalBalltechnicalsupport,CrystalBallandEPM

documenta

tion,

exa

mple

models

,

the

Welcome

screen,

a

nd

the

licensing

dia

log

TechnicalSupport OpenstheCrystalBallWebpagewithalinktotechnicalsupport

CrystalBallDocumentation DisplaysalistofavailableonlinedocumentationforCrystalBall

OracleEPMDocumentation DisplaystheOTNindexforOracleEnterprisePerformanceManagementdocumentation,includingCrystalBall

Examples

Guide DisplaysalistofavailableexamplemodelssoyoucanloadthechoiceintoCrystalBall

WelcomeScreen DisplaysaWelcomescreenthatenablesyoutoautomaticallyactivatetheprocesscapabilityfeaturesforqualityprogramssuchasSixSigma,setpercentilepreferencesfrequentlyusedintheOilandGasindustry,andactivateaccessibilityfeaturesforthosewithvisualimpairments.

Licensing DisplaystheActivateaLicensedialogforenteringaCrystalBallserialnumberandactivatingalicense

About[CrystalBall],

OffersversionandotherinformationaboutthecurrentCrystalBallreleaseincludingthecurrentusername

ResourcesforLearningCrystalBallTheeasiestwaytolearnCrystalBallistoworkthroughthetutorialsinAppendixC.Tutorial1

isbasicandwillhelpyouunderstandwhatCrystalBalldoesandhowitworks.Tutorial2shows

moreabouthow tocreatemodelsandrunCrystalBallsimulations.Ifyouarenew toCrystalBall,considercompletingthetutorialsbeforeyoucontinueusingtheproduct.

Forinformationonsupport,training,andreferralservices,seetheCrystalBallWebsiteat:

http://www.oracle.com/crystalball

ResourcesforLearningCrystalBall 31


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3

DefiningModelAssumptions

InThisChapter

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33

TypesofDataCells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33

AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

DefiningAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

EnteringAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

AdditionalAssumptionFeatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39

Using

the

Crystal

Ball

Distribution

Gallery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

IntroductionThesetopicsprovidestep-by-stepinstructionsfordefiningassumptioncellsinCrystalBall

modelssosimulationscanberunagainstthem.Theyalsodescribehow tousetheDistribution

Gallerytoorganizefavoritedistributionsanddefinecategoriesofdistributionstosharewith

others.

Ifyouareanew user,considerworkingthroughTutorial1inAppendix C,beforeyoureadthis

chapter.

TypesofDataCellsCrystalBallusesthreetypesofdatacellsasinputsandoutputs:

! Assumptioncellsareinputcellsthatcontainvaluesthatyouareunsureof:theuncertain

independentvariablesintheproblemyouaretryingtosolve.Theassumptioncellsmust

containsimplenumericvalues,notformulasortext.

! Decisionvariablecellsareinputcellsthatcontainvaluesthatarewithinthecontrolto

change.Thedecisionvariablecellsmustcontainsimplenumericvalues,notformulasor

text.TheseareusedbysomeoftheCrystalBalltoolsandbyOptQuest.

! Forecastcells(dependentvariables)areoutputcellsthatcontainformulasthatrefertoone

ormoreassumptionanddecisionvariablecells.Theforecastcellscombinethevaluesinthe

assumption,decisionvariable,andothercellstocalculatearesult.Aforecastcell,for

example,maycontaintheformula=C17*C20*C21.

Introduction 33


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AboutAssumptionsandProbabilityDistributionsForeachuncertainvariableinasimulation,orassumption,youdefinethepossiblevalueswith

aprobabilitydistribution.Thetypeofdistributionyouselectdependsontheconditions

surroundingthevariable.Commondistributiontypesarenormal,triangular,uniform,and

lognormal,asshowninFigure6.

Figure6 CommonDistributionTypes

Duringasimulation,CrystalBallcalculatesnumerousscenariosofamodelbyrepeatedlypicking

valuesfromtheprobabilitydistributionfortheuncertainvariablesandusingthosevaluesfor

eachassumptioncell.Commonly,aCrystalBallsimulationcalculateshundredsorthousands

ofscenarios,ortrials,injustafewseconds.Thevaluetouseforeachassumptionforeachtrial

isselectedrandomlyfromthedefinedpossibilities.

Becausedistributionsforindependentvariablesaresoimportanttosimulations,selectingand

applyingtheappropriatedistributionisthemainpartofdefininganassumptioncell.Formore

informationonprobabilitydistributions,seeUnderstandingProbabilityDistributionson

page15.

DefiningAssumptions

" Todefin

ean

assum

ption:

1 Determine

the

most

appropriate

probability

distribution

for

each

uncertain

variable:

! Listeverythingyouknowabouttheconditionssurroundingthisvariable.

! ReviewthedescriptionsoftheprobabilitydistributionsinSelectingProbability

Distributionsonpage1.

! ConsiderusingCrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeature,describedinFitting

DistributionstoDataonpage40.

! Selectthedistributionthatcharacterizesthevariable.

2 Entertheassumptionasdescribedinthenextsection,EnteringAssumptionsonpage34.

EnteringAssumptions

" Toenteranassumption:

1 Selectacellorarangeofcells.Thecellscanbeblankorhavenumericvalues,buttheycannothave

formulasortext.

34 DefiningModelAssumptions


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2 SelectDefine,andthenDefineAssumption, .

(InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clicktheupperhalfoftheDefineAssumptionicon.)

Foreachselectedcellorcellsintheselectedrange,CrystalBalldisplaystheDistribution

Gallerydialog(Figure9).

Figure9 DistributionGallerywiththeBasicCategorySelected

3 IntheDistributionGallery,selectthedistributionyouwantfromthegallery.TheBasiccategorycontains

severalfrequentlyuseddistributions.ClickAlltoviewalldistributionsshippedwithCrystalBall.For

details,seeUsingtheCrystalBallDistributionGalleryonpage48.

Alternately,clicktheFitbuttontofitadistributiontohistoricaldata,asdescribedinFitting

DistributionstoDataonpage40.

FormoreinformationontheDistributionGallery,seeDistributionGalleryWindowon

page48.

4 When

theDefineAssumptiondialogopens(Figure8),typeinatitleandtheparametersforthe

distribution.Theparameterscanbeeithernumericvaluesorcellreferences.

EnteringAssumptions 35


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Figure8 NormalDistribution

Tochangethedistributiontype,clickGallerytoreturntotheDistributionGalleryandthen

selectanotherdistribution.

5 To

see

moreinformation,clicktheMorebutton, ,neartheNametextbox.

MoreinformationisdisplayedintheDefineAssumptiondialogasshowninFigure.

Figure DefineAssumptionDialog,Expanded

IntheexpandedDefineAssumptiondialog,youcan:

! Entertruncationminimumandmaximumvaluesintheminimumandmaximum

truncationtextboxes(justbelow thedistribution,accessiblebytabbing).

! Usethetruncationgrabberstotruncatethevaluerange.

! Usenumericspinners(arrowsbesidethetextbox)toadjustparametersettings.



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! ClicktheLessbutton, ,tohidetheminimumandmaximumvaluetextboxesand

truncationgrabbers.(Formoreinformationabouttruncatingdistributions,see

Truncating Distributionsonpage22.)

YoucanperformthefollowingactivitiesinboththestandardandexpandedDefine

Assumptiondialog:

! ClicktheGallerybuttontodisplaytheDistributionGallerywindowandselectanother

distribution.

! ClicktheCorrelatebuttontodefinecorrelationsasdescribedinSpecifyingCorrelations

BetweenAssumptionsonpage44.

! SelectEdit,andthenAddinthemenubartoaddthecurrentlydefinedassumption

distributiontotheFavoritescategoryorauser-definedcategoryintheDistribution

Gallery.

! Useothermenucommandstocopythechart,pasteitintoMicrosoftExceloranother

application,printdata,changetheview,usealternateparameters,setassumptionand

chartpreferences,anddisplayhelpasdescribedinAdditionalAssumptionFeatures

onpage39.

6 When

you

have

finished

entering

parameters

to

define

the

assumption,clickEnter.

Thedistributionchangestoreflectthevaluesyouentered.IfyouclickOKinsteadofEnter,

CrystalBallacceptstheparametersandclosesthedialog.

9 ClickOK.

Ifyouselectedarangeofcells,repeatthesestepstodefinetheassumptionforeachcell.

Addit

iona

lAss

umpt

ionFeat

ures

Subtopics

! EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas

! AlternateParameterSets

! FittingDistributionstoData

! SpecifyingCorrelationsBetweenAssumptions

! SettingAssumptionPreferences

Asyouenterassumptionparameters,youcanusecellreferencesandalternateparameters.If

youhavehistoricaldataavailable,youcanuseCrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeaturetohelp

simplifytheprocessofselectingaprobabilitydistribution.Youcanalsospecifycorrelations

betweenassumptionsorfreezeassumptionstoexcludethemfromasimulation.

AdditionalAssumptionFeatures 39


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EnteringCellReferencesandFormulas

Subtopics

! Dynamicvs.StaticCellReferences

! RelativeReferences

! AbsoluteReferences

! Range

Names

! Formulas

Inadditiontonumericvalues,youcanenterareferencetoaspecificcellinaparametertextbox.

Cellreferencesmustbeprecededbyanequalsign(=).Cellreferencescanbeeitherabsoluteor

relative.Youcanalsoenterformulasandrangenames.

Ifnecessary,youcanpressF4tochangereferencesfromrelativetoabsoluteorbacktorelative.

Thisalsoappliestocellreferencesintextboxesotherthanassumptionparameters.

Note: Allcellreferencesinparametersaretreatedlikeabsolutereferenceswhencuttingand

pastingCrystalBalldata.CrystalBallalwaysstoresthecellreferenceinA1formateveniftheMicrosoftExcelpreferenceissettoR1C1format.TheglobalR1C1formatpreference

isnotaffectedbyrunningCrystalBall,butthenamerangesare,infact,changedtoA1

formatsincethatisthewayCrystalBallstoresthem.

" Toshowcellreferencesinsteadofcurrentvalueswhenyouentertheminparametertext

boxes,selectParameters,andthenShowCellReferencesintheDefineAssumptiondialog.

Dynamicvs. StaticCellReferences

Cellreferencesinassumptionparametersaredynamicandareupdatedeachtimetheworkbookisrecalculated.Dynamic cellreferencinggivesyoumoreflexibilityinsettingupmodelsbecause

youcanchangeanassumptionsdistributionduringasimulation.

Othertypesofcellreferencesarestatic,suchastheassumptionnametextboxandcorrelation

coefficients.Thesecellreferencesarecalculatedonceatthebeginningofasimulation.

RelativeReferences

Relativereferencesdescribethepositionofacellrelativetothecellcontainingtheassumption.

Forexample,supposeanassumptionincellC6referstocellC5.IftheassumptioninC6iscopied

tocellC,therelativereferencetoC5willthenrefertothevalueincellC8.Withrelativereferences,youcaneasilysetupawholerow orcolumnofassumptions,eachhavingsimilar

distributionsbutslightlydifferentparameters,byperformingjustafew steps.Anabsolute

reference,ontheotherhand,alwaysrefersbacktotheoriginallyreferencedcell,inthiscaseC5.



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FittingDistributionstoData

Subtopics

! UsingDistributionFittingforAssumptions

! ConfirmingtheFittedDistribution

! DistributionFittingNotes

! Locking

Parameters

When

Fitting

Distributions

! FilteringValuesWhenFittingDistributions

Ifyouhavehistoricaldataavailable,CrystalBallsdistributionfittingfeaturecansubstantially

simplifytheprocessofselectingaprobabilitydistributionwhencreatingassumptions.Notonly

istheprocesssimplified,buttheresultingdistributionmoreaccuratelyreflectsthenatureofthe

datathaniftheshapeandparametersofthedistributionwereestimated.

Distributionfittingautomaticallymatcheshistoricaldataagainstprobabilitydistributions.A

mathematicalfitdeterminesthesetofparametersforeachdistributionthatbestdescribethe

characteristicsofthedata.Then,theclosenessofeachfitisjudgedusingoneofseveralstandard

goodness-of-fittests.Thehighestrankingfitischosentorepresentthedata.YoucanselectfromamongalldistributionssupportedbyCrystalBallexcepttheyes-nodistribution.

UsingDistributionFittingforAssumptions

" Tousedistributionfittingwhencreatingoreditinganassumption:

1 Selectthecellwhereyouwanttocreateanassumption.

Itcanbeblankorcontainasimplevalue,notaformula.

2 Select

Define,

and

then

DefineAssumption,

.

(InMicrosoftExcel2009orlater,clicktheupperhalfoftheDefineAssumptionicon.)

3 IntheDistributionGallery,clickFittoselectthesourceofthefitteddata.

TheFitDistributiondialogopens.

4 Selectadatalocation.

! Ifthehistoricaldataisinaworksheetintheactiveworkbook,selectRange,andthen

enterthedatascellrange.Iftherangehasaname,youcanenterthename,preceded

byan=sign.

! Ifthehistoricaldataisinaseparatetextfile,clickTextFile,andtheneitherenterthepath

andnameofthefileorclickBrowsetosearchforthefile.Ifyouwant,youcanselect

Columnandenterthenumberofcolumnsinthetextfile.

Whenyouuseafileasthesourceofdata,eachdatavalueinthefilemustbeseparated

byeitheracomma,atabcharacter,aspacecharacter,oralistseparatordefinedin

WindowsRegionalandLanguageOptionspanel.Ifactualvaluesinthefilecontain

commasorthedesignatedlistseparator,thosevaluesmustbeenclosedinquotation



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marks.Allowableformatsforvaluesareidenticaltothoseallowedwithintheassumption

parameterdialog,includingdate,time,currency,andnumbers.

5 Specifywhichdistributionsaretobefitted:

! AutoSelectperformsabasicanalysisofthedatatoselectadistributionfittingoptionand

rankingmethod.Ifthedataincludesonlyintegers,fittingtoalldiscretedistributions

(withtheexceptionofYes-No)iscompletedusingtheChi-squarerankingstatistic

choice.

! AllContinuousfitsthedatatoallofthebuilt-incontinuousdistributions(these

distributionsaredisplayedassolidshapesontheDistributionGallery).

! AllDiscretefitstoalldiscretedistributionsexceptyes-noandusestheChi-squareranking

statistic.

! Choosedisplaysanotherdialogwhereyoucanselectasubsetofthedistributionsto

includeinthefitting.

! ThefinalsettingselectsthedistributionthatwashighlightedontheDistributionGallery

whenyouclickedtheFitbutton.

Ifyoutrytofitnegativedatatoadistributionthatcanonlyacceptpositivedata,thatdistributionwillnotbefittedtothedata.

6 Specifyhowthedistributionsshouldberanked.

Inrankingthedistributions,youcanuseanyoneofthreestandardgoodness-of-fittests:

! Anderson-Darling.ThismethodcloselyresemblestheKolmogorov-Smirnovmethod,

exceptthatitweightsthedifferencesbetweenthetwodistributionsattheirtailsgreater

thanattheirmid-ranges.ThisweightingofthetailshelpstocorrecttheKolmogorov-

Smirnovmethodstendencytoover-emphasizediscrepanciesinthecentralregion.

! Kolmogorov-Smirnov.Theresultofthistestisessentiallythelargestverticaldistance

betweenthetwocumulativedistributions.

! Chi-Square.Thistestistheoldestandmostcommonofthegoodness-of-fittests.Itgauges

thegeneralaccuracyofthefit.Thetestbreaksdownthedistributionintoareasofequal

probabilityandcomparesthedatapointswithineachareatothenumberofexpected

datapoints.Thechi-squaretestinCrystalBalldoesnotusetheassociatedp-valuethe

wayotherstatisticaltests(e.g.,torF)do.

Thefirstsetting,AutoSelect,selectstherankingstatisticautomaticallybasedonseveral

factors.Ifalldatavaluesareintegers,Chi-Squareisselected.

9 Opti

on

l

Ifyouknowthedatacorrespondstocertainshape,location,orotherspecialparametervalues

for

some

distributions,

select

Lockparameters

and

enter

appropriate

values

in

the

LockParametersdialog(LockingParametersWhenFittingDistributionsonpage43).

8 Opti

on

l

By

default,onlyvaluesfortheselectedrankingstatisticaredisplayedintheComparison

Chartdialog.Toshowvaluesforallthreestatistics,selectShowAllGoodness-of-fitStatisticsatthe

bottomoftheFitDistributiondialog.

OptionlTofilterdataforfittingbyexcludingorincludingcertainvalueranges,selectFilterdata

(FilteringValuesWhenFittingDistributionsonpage44).

AdditionalAssumptionFeatures 41


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10 ClickOK.

TheComparisonChartopens(ConfirmingtheFittedDistributiononpage42).

ConfirmingtheFittedDistribution

WhentheComparisonChartopens(Figure10),thefitteddistributionsaredisplayedinthe

ComparisonChartdialog,startingwiththehighest-rankeddistribution(bestfit)downthroughtothelowest(worstfit).

Figure10 ComparisonChartwithGoodnessofFitView,Chi-SquareRankingStatistic

" Toconfirmwhichoftheselecteddistributionstouseforanassumption:

1 Use

theComparisonChart

dialog

to

visually

compare

the

quality

of

the

fits

or

to

view

the

goodness-of-fitstatistics.Youcanperformanyoftheseoptionaltasks:

! UsetheNextandPreviousbuttonstoscrollthroughthefittedprobabilitydistributions.

Eachprobabilitydistributionisshownsuperimposedoverthedata.

! SelectPreferences,andthenCharttochangechartfeatur

tutorial de crystall ball - oracle

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