tv 2020 – five years that will change tv like never before
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Based on Comcast's recent comments that "TV will change more in the next 5 years than it has in the last 50", telcos could rule TV and home entertainement more than ever by 2020. Here’s why. Presented at the Connected TV World Summit, June 2014. #CTVS14TRANSCRIPT
Christophe RufinOrangeDirector – OTT TV Ecosystem [email protected]: @christopherufin
Royal College of Physicians, LondonJune 11th & 12th 2014
#CTVS14
BREAKFAST BRIEFING - TV 2020Five years that will change TV like never before
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
About Orange
One of the world leader CSPs239M customers in 160 countries
Turnover : 41B€ (2013)
A major European multiscreen operator
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Insight – TV in 2020
1 Total video
viewing time will increase dramatically
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Hint #1 video usage on new media add up
Average time spent weekly, USA. Source: Nielsen cross-platform report 2013
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Hint #2 the boom of video-compatible devices
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Insight – TV in 2020
2 Eyes will shift
from Free-to-air to Pay-TV& VOD
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Hint #1 ad-supported TV is under pressure
Hint #2 quality content is shifting to premium services
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
You get to watch this for free! Not this!
Hint #3 IPTV & OTT pay video services to account for most of the growth of TV
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: analysys mason
Pay-TV households, net additions or losses by primary platform, Western Europe, 2013–2018
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Insight – TV in 2020
3 Piracy will be
contained
Hint #1 convenience is a piracy killer
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Hint #2 illegal file sharing can’t rival the convenience of TV Everywhere
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Insight – TV in 2020
4 Households will
pay more for content
Hint #1 VOD and sVOD are no substitutes, they add up
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: Bain Creative UK report 2014
UK expenditure on digital video
Hint #2 digital Pay-TV to grow ~5% per year in Western EU
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: Strategy Analytics
Digital Pay-TV revenue forecast,Western Europe, 2013–2018
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
So, what will the future look like?
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Even more screens
Freely adapted from The Verge – “Over the top: the new war for TV is just beginning”http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/12/3633984/future-of-tv-over-the-top
TV set to become a very large monitor
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Sources: Wikipedia Commons, www.planar.com
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
The end of set-top-boxes
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
because placing the box on top of the screen will be increasingly difficult
The set-top box makes the smart TV, smarter
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: uk.hardware.info – Samsung F9000
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
2014: STBs come in various shapes and styles
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
2020: not a set-top box, a smart box is the hub for digital life
zz
2020: a typical Pay-TV service
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
A KILLER
“FOLLOW-ME” STYLE
PREMIUM CONTENT & MULTISCREEN SERVICES
USER EXPERIENCE
TABLET
NOW THE MAIN
CONTROL SCREEN
Premium channels with catch-up
Wide choice of VOD, eST &
sVOD On-demand games
Search & recommendation
Built-in social features
Personal media library
Freely adapted from confused.com – “TV goes social: The rise of the second screen”http://www.confused.com/news-views/infographics/tv-goes-social-rise-of-the-second-screen
2020 - Why the OTT didn’t win
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
2020 – What happens on Youtube, stays on Youtube
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
350 million views4 million channel subscribers
but… only 150 000 cinema entries in 2013
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
thanks@christopherufin
TV 2020 – Five years that will change TV like never before