tyndall centre update presentation 2013
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Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation… potted account of some recent researchTRANSCRIPT
Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation… potted account of some recent
research
Kevin AndersonMechanical, Aerospace and Civil EngineeringTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Finally,
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of
where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real
hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare
assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
Anderson & BowsBeyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Jan 2011
“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
… and according to the World Bank, at just 4°C
"There will be water and food fights everywhere,”
Jim Yong Kim – WB president
My headline conclusion:
Stabilisation at 2°C remains a feasible goal
just
… with economic (oikonimia), but not financial (chrematisitc) benefits
Research Areas
District heating (esp. CHP) CCS/Renewables –planning, stakeholder/public perceptions, Bio energy (lead UK’s research with strong industry link) Smart grids (technical and how used) Food in a changing climate Growth, green growth, equity (economics, steady state) High-emitters (UK & China) – tailoring policies Carbon budgets (revisiting UK budgets)
Shale gas
- Environmental/Social issues can be mitigated- Climate change implications cannot
Shale gas & natural gas are identical They are both high carbon energy sources (75% carbon) For electricity, gas is ~50% of coal emissions per kWh But only lower CO2 if substituted coal is not burnt elsewhere In absence of explicit policies, shale only adds to the carbon
burden (see US data). As DECC note:
“it is difficult to envisage a situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding \a
further carbon burden.”
Shale gas and UK carbon budgets
Emissions from combusting ~10% of British Geological Survey’s central estimate of the Bowland shale resource equates to the total 2013-2050 UK carbon budget
In brief; if the UK is to pursue shale gas for use in UK power stations it must renege on its own carbon budgets
(shale gas will not be a major energy source before ~2025, & the CCC state by 2030 the UK requires almost carbon-free electricity)
Nuclear
New Tyndall Report into nuclear power within the UK
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/tyndall_evidence.pdf
The mitigation conclusion is that the case for or against
nuclear energy within the UK is contextual; i.e. the objectives, in terms of carbon reduction levels, rates of mitigation and timeframe all need to be well specified
Shipping
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) tasked by UNFCCC to develop Climate Change response
(emblematic of most sectors)
“Mankind is on the horns of a dilemma. … our collective way of
life [is] eating away at the very support system that enables
us to live and breathe. This cannot go on. We need to make
some tough decisions, we need to make them now ...
Faced with facts we cannot argue against we need to consider
our priorities … to make sacrifices; we need to start putting
"life" ahead of "lifestyle".Efthimios E. Mitropoulos
The IMO General Secretary’s view on climate change
Shipping
Two flagship mitigation policies of the IMO
are: The ‘energy efficiency design index’ (EEDI)
The ‘ship energy efficient management plan’ (SEEMP)
How do these fair against the IMO and ICS’s high-level commitments?
Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments
90-140MtCO2
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments
Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628
90-140MtCO2
~1300MtCO2
~1900MtCO2
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments
Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628
Shipping – lots of low carbon options
Existing: Operational change, radically reduce speed (cube relationship with energy consumption)
Retrofit: Kites & possibly nuclear
New: Wind (kites, flettnor rotors, sails, nuclear, bio)
Demand: ~50% of UK shipping is transporting fossil fuels
Ports: Cold ironing, renewable onsight (Sulphur & LNG)
Shipping
… yet planning for a 1000% (A2) to 2000% (A1B) increase
on their high-level mitigation commitments
… with the IMO referring repeatedly to such increases as reductions
Shipping is in good company …
Overall there is very clear weakening of the global and UK government’s commitment to climate change
Virtually every nation & sector is failing to meet its own commitments, or claiming ‘savings’ that are known to be false (except Swansea?)
… as for 2°C, no nation or sector (including the UK & Wales) is even contemplating such emission reductions (e.g. UK 3-4% p.a., whilst 50:50 chance of 2°C demands ~10% p.a. for UK)
2013 UK Context
Tax breaks for shale gas development
Osborne’s (Chancellor) 37GW of unabated CCGTS
Highest investment ever in North Sea oil
(possible reopening of Scottish coal mines)
Expanding aviation & more ports
EU Car legislation watered down to be little more that BAU
Rejected 2030 decarbonisation target
Shell – Arctic exploration
Myth of CCS – 50-80gCO2/kWh
Σ China & India… (making our computers & running our call centres)
Emission in 2020 15-20GtCO2 (~⅔ global 2010)
Peak ~2025-30
Population ~40% of global figure
GDP/capita < 5% OECD in 2010
Energy growth ~5-8% p.a.
We must escape the shackles of a twentieth century mind-set if we are ever to resolve twenty-first century challenges
This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged teams, difficult choices & ‘pain’ for high emitters
Cybil exemplified what this may look like for Swansea
Tyndall Centre Radical Emission Reduction
conference Royal Society Dec. 2013
Kevin AndersonWebsite: http:// kevinanderson.info
Twitter: kevinclimate