ubs investor sentiment€¦ · split across 18 markets: argentina, brazil, china, germany, hong...
TRANSCRIPT
UBS Investor Sentiment Business owner 4Q19
Ramping up Hiring and investing plans bounce back from 3Q
Business owner optimism grows on the global economy ...
4Q 3Q 2Q
66% 60% 61% optimistic optimistic optimistic 21% neutral 22% neutral 23% neutral 13% pessimistic 18% pessimistic 16% pessimistic
Economic optimism by region
Asian business owners
VS. VS.
4Q 72%
3Q 68%
2Q 71%
European business owners (except Switzerland)
4Q 72%
3Q 67%
2Q 53%
Swiss business owners
4Q 58%
3Q
2Q
54%
52%
... and on their own region’s economy
4Q 3Q 2Q
72% 69% 67% optimistic optimistic optimistic 16% neutral 15% neutral 18% neutral 12% pessimistic 16% pessimistic 15% pessimistic
US business owners
VS. VS.
4Q
3Q
75%
73%
2Q 76%
Latin American business owners
4Q
3Q
65%
66%
2Q 71%
Business outlook >
1 of 4
Owners even more optimistic about their business
4Q 3Q 2Q
73% optimistic
5%
19% neutral
8% pessimistic
VS. VS.34% 40%39%
“I plan to invest more in my business.”
Hiring plans up
Global
4Q
38% hiring
51% keeping workforce same
11% downsizing
3Q
34% hiring
56% keeping workforce same
10% downsizing
2Q
39% hiring
53% keeping workforce same
8% downsizing
Hiring plans by region
Asian business owners
37%
32%
38%
US business owners
37%
31%
46%
European business owners (except Switzerland)
40%
38%
35%
Latin American business owners
38%
31%
38%
Swiss business owners
42 %
44%
38%
VS. VS.
4Q 4Q
3Q 3Q
2Q 2Q
4Q 4Q
3Q 3Q
2Q 2Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
On trade > 2 of 4
Business owners see progress in US-China trade conflict ...
85% “The ‘Phase 1’ agreement signals progress in trade relations.”
... and they think the “Phase 1” agreement is good for both countries
Impact on US economy
Impact on Chinese economy
65% 59% positive 19% neutral 16% negative
positive 21% neutral 20% negative
Most see trade relations improving on a moderate timeline
< 3 months 18%
4 months - 1 year 44%
1+ year 26%
not sure 12%
Overall, business owners expect US-China tensions to increase over next 5 years
42% More confrontation
25% Same level of confrontation
33% Less confrontation
Most see China overtaking the US as a superpower
“By 2030, China will replace the US as the world’s biggest superpower.”62%
Asia 61%
Europe (except Switzerland)
Switzerland
65%
65%
US 48%
Latin America 81%
Top concerns > 3 of 4
Top business concerns globally
47% 45% 45% Taxes Rising material costs Cyber security
2% 1% 1%
Top business concerns by region
Latin America
Asia
US 52% Cyber security
52% Rising healthcare costs
51% Taxes
Europe (except
Switzerland)
44% Regulations
44% Attracting and retaining employees
44% Climate change
69% Taxes
62% Rising material costs
59% Rising labor costs
Switzerland
35% Regulations
33% Cyber security
29% Rising healthcare costs
46% Rising labor costs
46% Rising material costs
43% Cyber security
Is your business ready for what’s next? Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor.
About the survey: UBS surveyed 1,508 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from December 19, 2019 – January 12, 2020. The global sample was split across 19 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the US. For the 3Q19 results, UBS surveyed 1,475 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from September 19 – October 8, 2019. The global sample was split across 18 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the US. For the 2Q19 results, UBS surveyed 1,018 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from June 3 – July 6, 2019.
© UBS 2020. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member FINRA/SIPC. Expiration: 1/31/2021 Review Code: IS2000255 Approval date: 1/13/2020 2020-224673
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