uc berkeley real estate symposium presentation: of silver linings & dark clouds

19
OF SILVER LININGS & DARK CLOUDS

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RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist presents about the nascent residential real estate recovery at the 35th annual Real Estate & Economics Symposium sponsored by the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

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Page 1: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

OF SILVER LININGS & DARK CLOUDS

Page 2: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

SILVER LINING 1: FALLING FORECLOSURES

2©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution

Page 3: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

U.S. FORECLOSURES AT 5-YEAR LOWS

Page 4: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURES DOWN

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October 2012 lowest monthly level since

April 2007

October 2012 lowest monthly level since

April 2007

Page 5: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS

5

1.5 million U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure

REO inventory represents 15-

month supply at current REO sales

pace

REO inventory represents 15-

month supply at current REO sales

pace

Page 6: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS

6

3.2 million U.S. delinquent mortgages

Page 7: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

EVEN MORE POTENTIAL DISTRESS

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12.5 million mortgages seriously underwater

Page 8: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

MARKET READY FOR MORE

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“I need more homes to show my buyers. . As much as I hate to see people lose their

homes in foreclosure, we need more inventory from some place.”

-Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA

“I need more homes to show my buyers. . As much as I hate to see people lose their

homes in foreclosure, we need more inventory from some place.”

-Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA

Page 9: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

SILVER LINING 2: FORECLOSURE SALES DOWN

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Page 10: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

ABRUPT CHANGE OF COURSE

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California foreclosure sales declined 10 percent

after four straight quarters of increases

California foreclosure sales declined 10 percent

after four straight quarters of increases

Page 11: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: UPSTREAM DISPOSAL

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While foreclosure sales are down from

a year ago, no-default short sales

increased 39 percent annually

While foreclosure sales are down from

a year ago, no-default short sales

increased 39 percent annually

Page 12: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

SILVER LINING 3: RISING PRICES

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Page 13: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

PRICES RISING NATIONWIDE

First annual increase in average foreclosure

price since Q2 2010 and biggest increase since

Q4 2006

First annual increase in average foreclosure

price since Q2 2010 and biggest increase since

Q4 2006

California foreclosure prices increased 4

percent YOY, biggest increase since Q2 2010

California foreclosure prices increased 4

percent YOY, biggest increase since Q2 2010

Page 14: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

PRICES RISING IN MOST CA METROS

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Page 15: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY

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Page 16: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: DEFERRED DISTRESS

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California foreclosure activity down 29

percent

California foreclosure activity down 29

percent

Page 17: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY

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Page 18: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

FLIPPING: SCATTERED SHOWERS

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• Los Angeles up 61%• Riverside up 38%• Sacramento up 25%• San Francisco up 57%• San Diego up 20%

• Los Angeles up 61%• Riverside up 38%• Sacramento up 25%• San Francisco up 57%• San Diego up 20%

Page 19: UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

RESOURCES FOR RESEARCH

• RealtyTrac Trend Center (Free) www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter

• Data Licensing: [email protected]

• Foreclosure News Report www.foreclosurenewsreport.com

• Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President– [email protected]

©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 19