uc berkeley real estate symposium presentation: of silver linings & dark clouds
DESCRIPTION
RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist presents about the nascent residential real estate recovery at the 35th annual Real Estate & Economics Symposium sponsored by the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley.TRANSCRIPT
OF SILVER LININGS & DARK CLOUDS
SILVER LINING 1: FALLING FORECLOSURES
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U.S. FORECLOSURES AT 5-YEAR LOWS
CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURES DOWN
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October 2012 lowest monthly level since
April 2007
October 2012 lowest monthly level since
April 2007
DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS
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1.5 million U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure
REO inventory represents 15-
month supply at current REO sales
pace
REO inventory represents 15-
month supply at current REO sales
pace
DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS
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3.2 million U.S. delinquent mortgages
EVEN MORE POTENTIAL DISTRESS
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12.5 million mortgages seriously underwater
MARKET READY FOR MORE
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“I need more homes to show my buyers. . As much as I hate to see people lose their
homes in foreclosure, we need more inventory from some place.”
-Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA
“I need more homes to show my buyers. . As much as I hate to see people lose their
homes in foreclosure, we need more inventory from some place.”
-Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA
SILVER LINING 2: FORECLOSURE SALES DOWN
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ABRUPT CHANGE OF COURSE
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California foreclosure sales declined 10 percent
after four straight quarters of increases
California foreclosure sales declined 10 percent
after four straight quarters of increases
DARK CLOUD: UPSTREAM DISPOSAL
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While foreclosure sales are down from
a year ago, no-default short sales
increased 39 percent annually
While foreclosure sales are down from
a year ago, no-default short sales
increased 39 percent annually
SILVER LINING 3: RISING PRICES
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PRICES RISING NATIONWIDE
First annual increase in average foreclosure
price since Q2 2010 and biggest increase since
Q4 2006
First annual increase in average foreclosure
price since Q2 2010 and biggest increase since
Q4 2006
California foreclosure prices increased 4
percent YOY, biggest increase since Q2 2010
California foreclosure prices increased 4
percent YOY, biggest increase since Q2 2010
PRICES RISING IN MOST CA METROS
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DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY
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DARK CLOUD: DEFERRED DISTRESS
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California foreclosure activity down 29
percent
California foreclosure activity down 29
percent
DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY
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FLIPPING: SCATTERED SHOWERS
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• Los Angeles up 61%• Riverside up 38%• Sacramento up 25%• San Francisco up 57%• San Diego up 20%
• Los Angeles up 61%• Riverside up 38%• Sacramento up 25%• San Francisco up 57%• San Diego up 20%
RESOURCES FOR RESEARCH
• RealtyTrac Trend Center (Free) www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter
• Data Licensing: [email protected]
• Foreclosure News Report www.foreclosurenewsreport.com
• Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President– [email protected]
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