ucl environment institute climate change and complexity
TRANSCRIPT
UCL Environment Institute
Climate Change and Complexity
UCL Environment Institute
21stC Challenges: Climate Change and Global Poverty
UCL Environment Institute
10 million children starve to death each year
UCL Environment Institute
Communicate the basic science – it is simple physics
UCL Environment Institute
Stored Sunlight
COAL and Oil
UCL Environment Institute
80% from industry and 20% from deforestation
but half is absorbed by the biosphere and oceans
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
2005
Hacking into scientists emails does not make the evidence go away!
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
Depends on the data you putIn the model.
Cooling and warming factors
Science is good, but predictions concerning society are not …
Think 1910 or even 1980?
How ‘super’ are the models?
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General Circulation models
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B1 B2
A2A1
B: balancedFi: fossil-intensive
T: non-fossil
More economic
More global More regional
More environmental
Society is the biggest unknown - so we build scenarios
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
UN Predictions of global population in billions
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6oC warming and 1 metre sea level rise by 2100
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Climatic Variability, Change and Coping Range
ClimaticAttribute (X)
Time (years)
Current ClimateCurrent Climate Changed ClimateChanged Climate
UCL Environment Institute
UCL Environment Institute
Stott et al., 2004 Nature
Summer 2003: Not Anomalous by 2040
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Flood risk
Change in storm surge height
Height for 50yr return period;
2080s A2 emissions
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Sea
Lev
el R
ise
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more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat wavesmore extreme storms, floods, drought, heat waves
- - maymay leading to food and water insecurity, leading to food and water insecurity,
- - maymay leading to migration and conflict leading to migration and conflict
What are the effects of climate change
UCL Environment Institute
How can we deal with uncertain climate change?
Twin Approaches
What ever we do now, there will still be climate change
So we need to
1. Mitigate (reduce our carbon foot-print)
2. Adapt (protect our people)
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• Exeter Meeting Feb 2005• G8 9 July 2009• Agreed at Copenhagen
2°C
What is dangerous climate change?
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Source: Hadley Centre
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
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Contraction and Convergence
Business as usual
Global Deal?
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Total and per capita emissions – target is 2 tons/capita
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What is the UK plan
1. Decarbonise electricity generation
2. Increase energy efficiency
3. Move to electric dominate transport
4. Adapt to predicted climate change
UCL Environment Institute
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UK possible path to 80% cut by 2050
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Do
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Services
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Transport
Hydrogen
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Upstream andnon-sector
Industry
Agriculture2010 2020 2030 2040 20502010
Services
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Hydrogen
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Upstream & non-sector
Industry
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UCL Environment Institute
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Growth in UK living standards: with 80%emissions cut
GDP per capita 2006=100250
100
0.5 – 2.0% lower
Business as usual80% emissions cut
0
150
200
2006 2020 2030 2040 2050
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GOOD NEWS 170% of the World Energy requirements for 2030 has yet to be built
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GOOD NEWS 2: Carbon Trading - ETS and Future US systems
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UCL Carbon Auditors Limited US Patent for calculating annual carbon flux at a 250m resolution for Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Grid for Terrestrial Carbon Credits
?C_AFOLU
534.1
0
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ĘC_AFOLU
198.9
0
Gabon
Gabon Nature Reserve
Example of Gabon Customers obtain:Certainty of carbon stock and carbon stock changes, which are:1. Assessed and monitored against international standards and procedures, providing –2. Confidence in the accuracy of the data obtained, underpinned by –3. Highly reputable expertise from the CAL team based at UCL
Gabon Annual Carbon Flux
UN REDD+ we need to make a tree worth more standing up and being cut down
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Adaptation – aim for 2˚C but plan for 4˚C
Adaptation essential to protect the people
Science can give broad picture of what the future may hold to design policy
UCL Environment Institute
Some thoughts
1.Policy makers need to understand uncertainties in the science so they can make informed decisions
2. Climate change is just one of many problems that must be tackled, but it can make other problems worse 3. Alternative Energy .. essential as development needs power and we must alleviate global poverty
4. Natural resources such as forest need to commodified to finance development
5. Global deal must include Developing countries – can not fail again like Copenhagen
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““The poorest and those who have contributed least The poorest and those who have contributed least to climate change will be first affected”to climate change will be first affected”
Ethics and morals
“The carbon footprint of the poorest 1 billion people is around 3% of the world’s total footprint……loss of life will be 500 times greater in Africa”