UGANDA UGANDA

Integrated Assessment of the Fisheries Policy Integrated Assessment of the Fisheries Policy for Adequacy of integration of Economic, for Adequacy of integration of Economic,

Environmental and Social concernsEnvironmental and Social concerns

Integrated Assessment and Planning for Integrated Assessment and Planning for Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

Second Review Meeting

Geneva, September 21-22, 2005

Alice Ruhweza - National Environment Management Authority, Uganda

Background (1)

Project launched Jan04, several studies & analyses, launch wkshop sep04, brochure, website, consultative wkshops

Project Management – NEMA & Economic Policy Research Center

National Technical Steering Committee - meets once a month. Composed of Government Ministries ( Health, Water, Land & Env., Local Government, Trade, Tourism and Industry, Agriculture (Plan for Modernisation of Agric), Finance, National Planning Authority/ NGOs – Advocates Coalition for Develpt.

UNEP, Consultants and Other Stakeholders

Background (2)

The original key objective of the project was to further develop local capacity to integrate ESE considerations in the design and assessment of national planning processes. This remains our overall objective

Started with a view of influencing the PEAP revision process but time did not allow it and PEAP was too big

Considered Plan for Modernisation of Agriculture but realised Agric. Exports e.g Coffee was no longer a strong export

Background (3)

- Team chose to focus on the Trade Policy - Trade is recognized as an engine of economic growth, and a new policy is being drafted. Team envisaged an opportunity for ex ante assessment.

However, after preliminary analysis and a consultative workshop in August, it became clear that the trade policy was not ready for analysis. However the team discussed with the Trade Ministry the ESE considerations for the policy

After further consultations the country team chose to assess the fisheries policy

Background (4)

Why Fisheries?

The Fisheries policy is relatively new having been adopted in 2004 – offers great opportunity for a concurrent assessment

Fish is Uganda’s second highest foreign exchange earner

The Fish sector has very strong ESE implications

Background (5)

The Fisheries Policy (2004) - Process began in 1999 finalized 2004. Wide stakeholder consultations

Key Objectives of the Fisheries Policy - Sustainable mgmt & devpt of fisheries/ Decentralisation $ community involvement/ Environmental issues/ Fish marketing & trade/post harvest qlty/ Aquaculture/ Instns and funding mechanisms/ Human resource development – etc

- Related policies and programmes - National Environment Policy/Water Policy/Wetlands Policy/Wildlife Policy... MEAs (CITES, CBD, RAMSAR, TECCONILE, FAO Conduct for responsible fisheries..etc)

Methods of Assessment

Root cause analysis – identify ESE issues Pressure state response model –

environment linkages Scenario Building – spatial and temporal

linkagesThe scenario analysis analyses whether the

current policy is really an improvement over what existed before , if not, what could be done to make it even better.

POLICY SCENARIOS

a) Zero state –– without policyaccess to the resource goes to highest

bidder(poor people marginalised); increased pollution load (effluent from breweries, abbatoirs..etc); % discards is high, invasive alien species (water hyacinth), Fish stocks declining, prices stagnant, fish ban (EU-1999); poor fishing gear (bottom trawling); reduction in biodiversity (only 3 main types left)

Scenarios - continued

a) Policy state– community management of fisheries in place, beach management units/ lake management organizations; MSY is set, monitoring and surveillance system set up, demand for fish is growing (demand gap – 50,000 metric tonnes); price of fish is rising decentralisation policy; aquaculture is promoted; resource rents introduced, ban on illegal gear; (more stringent standards (EU)

Scenarios (continued)

c) Ideal state- Improved policy integrating ESE- Demand of fish anticipated from the outset and measures are put in place; aquaculture or imports from other countries fulfill demand; no excess capture of fish beyond MSY; better technology-wate treatment plants; use of economic instruments

Key assumptionsa) trade in fish is good and can be increased sustainablyb) current policy is better than the situation that prevailed before it

Assessment Framework

Economic indicators Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

total income of fishers declining Stagnant Stable

monetary GDP contribution

declining Stable Increasing

value of fish exports in decline improve Steady increase

estimated gross revenue of fish factories

decline in long-term

Stable stable

estimates of revenue from different fisheries

declining stagnant steady increase

catch per unit effort increasing stable stable

Economic indicators

Assessment framework (cont’d)

Social indicators Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

percentage of fishing community with access to fish resource;

Low High & controlled

High

number days reported sick;

high low Low

number of women in fish management; and

Very few (largely none)

At least 30%

Above 30%

number of children in school

Less than national average

National Average

All children

Social indicators

Assessment framework for Fisheries (cont’d)

Environment indicators Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

percentage of by-catch in fish harvested

High approx. 25%

Lower than 25%

less than 10%

volume of fish catches over a number of years

Decreasing stable Stable

Types of different fish species

3 prominent types

More than 3 up to 10

At least 20

Water quality(eutrophication, hyacinth, BOD all high )

Low and declining

Slight improvement

high

Population of birds and animal species

declining Stable High

Area of forest cut down over years

Large and increasing

Fixed Private plantations

Environment indicators

Initial effects on the other protein sources such as livestock meat products, and crops (beans, peas)

Zero policy state Policy state Ideal/enhanced policy state

Effect on the price of using related natural resource sector

Effect on incentive of using related natural resource sector

In Uganda higher per capita fish consumption was recorded for the poor and lake region communities (Keizire, 2003);

Beef, poultry, and other meats more expensive than fish;

Consumer preference for beef higher (occasional markets e.g. ceremonies);

There is unlikely to be major shifts on the price of meat or fish; and

Future fish catches will fall leading to higher demand and prices, which may overtake meat prices, domestic consumers will switch to meat or to crop based protein sources, which are generally cheaper;

Or cheaper fish imports where they exist

The Fisheries policy seeks per capita fish consumption of 10kg;

A demand gap of 50,000 (less 2000 from aquaculture) metric tonnes by 2015;

Demand leads to a rise in the fish price possibly over taking the price of meat; and

Domestic consumers will switch to meat and the poor to the cheaper crop protein sources;

Alternatively, the demand could be filled with imports.

Predict future demand shortfall of 50,000 metric tonnes;

Develop a farmed fish industry that grows with both domestic and international demand;

Prices will remain stable in the long-run for the fish sector in relation to the livestock and protein crop

How will the changes in price or incentive in turn affect production or use of the natural resource

Zero policy state Policy state Ideal/enhanced policy state

Product Quality will decline, crowded system with little regulation

Quantity will decline as catches dwindle

Quality will improve considerable;

Quantity will remain constant

Quality and quantity should both increase

Scale There will be reduced economic growth and consumption per capita of fish.

Economic growth will increase gradually; and

Fish per capita consumption will decline

The fisheries economy will increase steadily; and

Per capita fish consumption will be high as well.

Technological

Canoes, nets, and a few boats nets, haphazard investment in aquaculture

Canoes, nets, and a few boats nets, low investment aquaculture

Mostly boats, cage farming and intensive technology in land based aquaculture

How will the changes in price or incentive in turn affect production or use of the natural resource

Structural Low specialisation, a lot of vertical integration with little technical capacity;

the processors exist as a disparate group

Institutional units (BMUs) control fishers; middlemen and processors are part of the chain leading to exports and/or domestic markets

Institutional units (BMUs) and commercial fishers, farm fish operators control fisheries; middlemen and processors are part of the chain leading to exports and/or domestic markets

Location Roads, cold storage systems and telephone networks are used only by processors and exporters

Improved road access, presence of cold storage sites and presence of mobile telephone network at major fish landing

Improved road and transport access, cold storage systems, fixed and mobile telephone network at major and minor landing sites

Regulatory Use of District fisheries Officers and local government for monitoring control and surveillance (MCS);

use of technology standards for fishing gear and threat to prosecute; and

Poor enforcement and bribery

Creation of overall MCS body, Uganda Fisheries Authority to monitor performance of lower level institutions, BMUs and Lake Management Organisations

Use of fines and charges, in addition to threat to sue

A national body in charge of MCS;

Use of standards as foundation for enforcing both codes of conduct and economic instruments for environmentally harmful actions

Economic/trade effects

How will changes in production use affecteconomic/trade performance under each scenario?

Econ/trade indicators

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

total income of fishers

Decline Stable Increase

catch per unit effort

increase constant Decrease

value of fish exports

decrease Stable increase

Environmental effects

How will the changes in production or use of resource affect the environment under each scenario?.

Environment

indicators

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

percentage of by-catch in fish harvested

Higher in excess of 25%

Decline to less than 25%

Be less than 10%

volume of fish catches over a number of years

Decline stable Stable

Types of different fish species

3 main species other less than 10%

Up to 10 species

At least 20 species

Social effects (1)

How will changes in production or use of resource affect social well-being and poverty in each scenario?.

Social indicators

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

percentage of children in school;

Much less than national average

National average All

number days reported sick;

high low Low

number of women in fish management; and

Less than 10% 30% More than 30%, as many opportunities as men

Social effects (2)- Who are the winners and losers ?

Winners winnings Losers losses

Zero policy state

The private tender holders;

Commercial fishers;

Illegal fish exporters;

Un limited access to the fishery;

Profits from the tenders;

Poor of the fishing communities;

Fish consumers in Uganda;

Future fisheries resource users

Loss of access to fishery if unable to pay tender holders;

Nutrition loss, less than 10kg per capita consumption;

Dwindling fish stocks

Fisheries policy state

Fishing communities; and

Fish processors and workers

Increased access to fishery; and

Employment and a revenue stream

The private tender holders;

Commercial fishers;

Illegal fish exporters;

Unlimited access to the fishery;

Loss of exclusive rights to some fisheries; and

Loss of black market

Ideal policy

state

Fishing communities;

Commercial fishers;

Fish processors and workers;

Fish consumers; and

Future resource users

Access rights to fishery;

Employment and a revenue stream;

10kg per capita consumption

Tender holders;

Illegal fish exporters

Un limited access to the fishery; and

Illegal use of fish resources

Secondary effects (1)

Please describe any further, long-term social & economic/trade implications of the projected environmental changes?

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

High incident of environmental health problems (malaria, cholera), and communicable diseases especially HIV/AIDS;

High unemployment rate;

High rural urban migration to cities

In ability for poor communities to meet their protein dietary requirement – Nutritional health problems (e.g. high infant mortality, malnutrition)

Activities that lead to sabotage, e.g fish poisoning and illegal nets

Social pressures from groups opposed to large scale commercial cage farming and other

Secondary effects (2) Long-term environmental & economic/trade implications from the projected

changes in social well-being?

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3Loss of export revenue as prey fish species for the carnivorous commercial types such as Nile Perch dwindles

Loss revenue from Bird and Mammal species eco-tourism and tourism operations

High soil run off into lake due to deforestation by fishing communities

Pressure on other natural resources from poor communities e.g. increased deforestation

A trade-off between the international export trade and the domestic market

The possibility that the present fish managers may not adopt to sustainable management practices

Commercial aquaculture leading to increased harvest of prey species to boost aquaculture, leading to collapse of capture fishes; Technology revolution that most stakeholders than will leave out many fishers Transformation in wild fish stock by aquaculture species that escape and breed with wild stockCompetition to protect market position, will lead to patenting and several battles over product authenticity and quality

Recommendations (1)

For concurrent assessment, how should the policy/plan be re-formulated or revised?

1. Compliment Command and control practices with market based instruments such as environmental bonds on industries likely to pollute and punitive charges for illegal behaviour;

2. The groups that lose out need re-tooling on how they can integrate in the wider economy with as much ease as possible (micro-finance, and enterprise development) and this can begin within the BMUs;

3. The policy should take on board the special education needs and health requirements for the fishing communities

4. There will be need to study how the market based instruments can be designed to avoid a reduction on processors revenues proposed by policy and charges to regulate by-catch and discards.

5. Voluntary measures such as cleaning up pollution as part of corporate responsibility should be encouraged, although they should not detract from other official instruments, instead they should be rewarded for instance through reductions on official pollution charges

Recommendations (2)

How to improve the process of policy/plan-making? – Public participation: Improvement in stakeholder

identification-linkages need to be understood

– Inter-ministerial coordination: Use of monetary measurements to weigh trade-off or easily understandable indicators (lives lost, jobs lost)

– Inter-desciplinary collaboration: Build an early rapport between the sector stakeholders and the IAP committtee, UNEP may participate in this as well

– Participation of affected communities & marginalised groups: At a local government, village, parish, resource utilisation level encourage institutional development and quotas in the management structure for marginalised groups. The IAP process should also identify with these stakeholders

Enabling conditions What needs to happen in order to implement the recommendations?

1. The results of the IAP need to be disseminated to all stakeholders and the findings agreed upon – NEMA/EPRC/UNEP and TSC

2. Identify national projects already implementing the recommendations and a way of inputing these findings - NEMA/EPRC/UNEP and TSC

3. For the sector of focus discussions should be held with stakeholders, especially at policy impelmentation – how can they benefit from these findings? NEMA/EPRC/UNEP and TSC

4. Identify areas where studies to clarify on the recommendations mentioned need to be carried out - NEMA/EPRC/UNEP and IAP working group/ DFR

5. Passing of the Fisheries Act by parliament will put in place a stronger legal framework and institutions that can implement the recommendations mentioned above

Lessons learned

A. Direct ENR sectors with trade, economic and social implications as well offer immediate fertile grown in piloting IAP;

B. IAP is a great tool and it should be promoted on its own merits and taught to all policy makers

C. Too many tools – maybe only a few tools, which can be augmented as process goes along actually need mention; and

D. IAP could be used to draw out environmental goods and services more prominently.