uk and european renewable energy trends and implications for energy markets
DESCRIPTION
UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy markets. Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www.r-e-a.net. Renewable Energy Association. More than 500 members multinationals to ‘one-man bands’ Renewable heat, power, fuel & CHP All technologies: Biomass - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Apex Paris - October 2007 1
UK and EuropeanRenewable Energy trends and
implications for energy markets
Philip WolfeRenewable Energy Association
www.r-e-a.net
Apex Paris - October 2007 2
Renewable Energy AssociationMore than 500 members
> multinationals to ‘one-man bands’
Renewable heat, power, fuel & CHP
All technologies:> Biomass> Bioenergy> Solar> Wind> Marine> Hydro> Heat pumps
Apex Paris - October 2007 3
This presentation
EU energy targets
Possible scenarios for 2020
Policy implications
Trading and market implications
Apex Paris - October 2007 4
A lot of 20%’s
The EU commitments for 2020Emissions reductions Binding> 20% unilateral, or> 30% if multilateral
Energy conservation Non-binding> 20% below current projections
Renewables Binding> 20% of total energy> 10% of transport fuelstotal energy
Apex Paris - October 2007 5
Renewable trends in Europe
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ItalyDenmarkGermanyUnited KingdomEuropean Union 25EU25 (target)UK (target?)
Apex Paris - October 2007 6
UK Energy White Paper“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal … by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption … we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”
Apex Paris - October 2007 7
Renewable34%
Renewable18%Renewable
12%
Fossil and nuclear66%
Fossil and nuclear88%
Fossil82%
Transport Heat Power
20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision
Apex Paris - October 2007 8
First: Cut energy consumption
Energy conservation measuresMore efficient energy usage> Regulate against inefficient products> Regulate against parasitic loads
More efficient energy generation> Limit generating stations’ waste energy
UK consumption in 2020 same as nowas a rough working assumption
Apex Paris - October 2007 9
Routemap to 2020 New measures needed
Apex Paris - October 2007 10
Enhanced policy proposalsMerchant power
Increased RO1 objective ~22% in 2020> Set 25% quota and increase headroom> Retain buyout link to retail price index> Offshore super-grid?
Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro?Incentives for large scale CHP2
> Large thermal generators must use heat> Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation
Measures to deliver biomass strategy3
1. Renewable (electricity) Obligation2 Combined heat and power
3 Published by UK Government in May
Apex Paris - October 2007 11
Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors
Renewable transport fuels> Higher RTFO4 quotas – 10% in 2020> High blend & second generation bio-fuels
Domestic buildings> Building regulations for new homes > Smart metering roll-out programme> Retrofit programme for existing houses
Non-residential buildings> A new Code for Sustainable Buildings> Heat networks in new developments> Renewables in agriculture
4 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
Apex Paris - October 2007 12
Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy
Apex Paris - October 2007 13
Renewable34%
Renewable18%Renewable
12%
Fossil and nuclear66%
Fossil and nuclear88%
Fossil82%
Transport Heat Power
20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU
Apex Paris - October 2007 14
10%23%
12%
2%
2%
16%
7%
11%
3%
51%72%90%
Transport Heat Power
Onboard OnsiteOn farm OnshoreNearshore OffshoreFossil & nuclear
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhere it isWhere it is
Apex Paris - October 2007 15
5%
23% 11%
8%
8%
10%
2%1%
9%
5%3%
1%
51%90% 72%
Transport Heat Power
Hydro MicroRenew ablesBiomass BioEnergyOnshore w ind MarineOffshore w ind Fossil & nuclear
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhat it isWhat it is
Apex Paris - October 2007 16
So what’s new ?More focus on heat and fuels> Not simply electricity
Increasing penetration of renewables> Exceeding nuclear, coal and oil
Competition between energy markets> Power, heat & transport competing for:
> Biomass> Gas
Apex Paris - October 2007 17
What’s new for power ?Trend towards decentralised generationOffshore renewables:> International grids?
Renewables delivery profile> Base-load / intermittent; predictability
Advanced metering – new facilities:> Load management> Real-time price signals
Apex Paris - October 2007 18
Implications for marketsMore and smaller energy producersIncreased cross-border tradingRegional (distribution level) potential?Real-time pricingMore flexible demandIncreasing role for balancing servicesNew trading opportunities for heat?
Apex Paris - October 2007 19
UK and EuropeanRenewable Energy trends and
implications for energy markets
Philip WolfeRenewable Energy Association
www.r-e-a.net