uk climate projections - ukcp09
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Dr Alastair Brown (UK Climate Impacts Programme - UKCIP) to the third sector event on the UK Climate Projections tools. Defra's Innovation Centre Reading 28 July 2009TRANSCRIPT
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UK Climate Projections - UKCP09
Third Sector Projections in Practice Event, Reading, 28 July 2009
Dr Alastair Brown,
UK Climate Impacts
Programme
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Introduction Background to the UK Climate Projections
UKCP09 products
Using UKCP09 products
UKCIP support
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
How do we plan for the future?
The past as a guide to the future assumes “stationarity” but, past events and their management may be informative
Oracles, augury, cards, sorcery, ……
“Predict – Optimise - Relax” or “Assess – Hedge - Review”?
Plan for one future or many?
Impacts &Consequenc
es
what will happen?Climate change
how will my system behave?Sensitivity/vulnerability
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCP09 next
Background to UKCP09 UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Nature and scope of information has evolved, building upon:
improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements
Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time Audience has evolved and grown
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
User-led development
Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – (resulting in probabilistic nature of the projections)
Improved spatial and temporal detail
Improved accessibility (we provided a dedicated online user interface)
More information about climate change in the marine environment
What next?
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCIP and UKCP09
UKCIP - UK Climate Impacts Programme http://www.ukcip.org.uk
UKCP09 - 2009 Climate Projectionshttp://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 launched on 18 June 2009
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Production Partners Management by Defra, Hadley Centre,
UKCIP
User Panel, Steering Group, Expert Review
Others delivered User Interface, Marine, Weather Generator, Guidance
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 Improvements
Improved representation of the climate system
Quantification of modelling uncertainty
Probabilistic output – robust decisions
More spatial and temporal detail
User interface
Training programme
Managed enquiry system
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 – Responding to Users
25 km grid
Marine
Administrative River Basin
30-year time periods
Uncertainty
Spatial resolution
Temporal resolution
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Clarifying Uncertainties The provision of probabilistic projections is one of the
fundamental building blocks of UKCP09
Probabilities provide a relative measure of the strength of evidence considered that supports a particular future climate outcome – supporting risk management and robust decision makingRelative strength of
the evidence supporting a specific
change….
Relative strength of the evidence supporting the
change being equal to or less than a specific amount…
PDF CDF
78% probability of being
equal to or greater than 320
0
40
60
80
100
Size of
change
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
22%
Size of
change
2
0
4
6
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
8%
Do not indicate the percentage of occasions during a 30-year time period when the change be less than the specified value
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Uncertainty: “ How hot?”
Answer 1 Answer 2
“42°C
”No information on uncertainty
Very acceptable to some
May be misunderstood as “no uncertainty”
Uncertainty is explicit
May be unwelcome – much more work required
Better decisions possible
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 layered approach
Communicators
Researcher / Scientist
Decision Makers
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 products
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Online support – User Guidance
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Online support – User Interface manual
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Training support
Projections in Practice (PiP) programme
Familiarisation workshops
Max 100 delegates
Presentations from UKCIP, Defra, Keynote speaker
Hands-on training on accessing the User Interface
10 delegates
National, sector specific events (July 2009)
Regional events (Autumn 2009)
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Training support (cont.)
eLearning
Aim to support and enhance PiP programme
Develop communities of practice using UKCP09 to share understanding and good practice
Discussion forums
Wikis
Blogs
News feeds
Webinars
Podcasts
Specific online resources to develop skills and understanding
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Supporting UKCP09
Online support
Dedicated website
The User Guidance
The User Interface manual
Help desk (FAQs)
Training
Projections in Practice (PiP) programme
eLearning
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
How UKCP09 might be used…
“Roads are being sanded as quickly as the Council can do the work but the Council can barely cope” (Oxford Times 2nd July 2006)
Highways responded as gritters had been used for the first time during the summer as roads began to melt.
Council members asked for a post event review from the Highways Department
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
How could they use UKCP09?
Highways were able to identify the conditions under which the roads began to melt. Air temperatures in excess of 35°C for more than 2 days.
Review the Observed trends report and Climate projections report, and evaluate if roads melting in the summer is likely to become a more regular event.
Use this information along with Key findings, the Briefing report and Pre-prepared maps & graphs, submit a report to council members to describe what had happened and suggest further research.
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
The need to know more
With additional resources they could explore various UKCP09 products
Using customisable outputs (from User Interface)
Sampled data using the Weather Generator
Benefits Limitations
More specific detail 25km resolution
Probabilistic data Monthly data
Benefits Limitations
5km resolution Large data set
Daily information
Able to explore thresholds
Less robust
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Worked Example - Summary
UKCP09 is suite of products
use the right product in the right place
Strengths and weaknesses to using each product
© UK
CIP
2006 http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
Useful Websites
UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)
http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 Technical Site
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
UKCP09 Helpdesk
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/helpdesk
Training & e-learning resources for UKCP09
http://www.ukcip.org/training