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United Kingdom Closer Look

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Page 1: UK: Energy Outlook

United Kingdom

Closer Look

Page 2: UK: Energy Outlook

UK Energy Overview

Page 3: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity use 2015 by source in TWhsNet imports

21 TWhsOther

4 TWhsBioenergy 25 TWhs

Wind and solar 48 TWhs

Hydro 6 TWhs

Nuclear 64 TWhs

Gas 98 TWhs

Oil 2 TWhs

Coal 72 TWhs

Page 4: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity use 2015 by source in percentagesNet imports

6,2 %Other 1,0 %

Bioenergy 7,4 %

Wind and solar 14,1 %

Hydro 1,8 %

Nuclear 18,8 %

Gas 28,8 %

Oil 0,5 %

Coal 21,3 %

Page 5: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity mix* 2015 by source in TWhsOther

4 TWhsBioenergy 25 TWhs

Wind and solar 48 TWhs

Hydro 6 TWhs

Nuclear 64 TWhs Gas

98 TWhs

Oil 2 TWhs

Coal 72 TWhs

*excluding imports

Page 6: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity mix* 2015 by source in TWhs

Other 1 %Bioenergy

8 %

Wind and solar 15 %

Hydro 2 %

Nuclear 20 % Gas

31 %

Oil 1 %

Coal 23 %

*excluding imports

Page 7: UK: Energy Outlook

UK net electricity supplied 2001-2014G

Whs

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 8: UK: Energy Outlook

UK net electricity supplied and fuels used in electricity production 2001-2014

GW

hs

0

275000

550000

825000

1100000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net electricity Fuels used

Page 9: UK: Energy Outlook

35 %

37 %

39 %

41 %

43 %

45 %

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UK average implied electricity production efficiency 2001-2014

Page 10: UK: Energy Outlook

Non-fossil 45 %

Fossil 55 %

UK electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Page 11: UK: Energy Outlook

Combustion 63 %

Clean 37 %

UK electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Page 12: UK: Energy Outlook

Other 1 %Nuclear

20 %

RE Clean 17 %

RE Combustion 8 %

Fossil 54 %

UK electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Page 13: UK: Energy Outlook

Bioenergy 32 %

Wind and solar 60 %

Hydro 8 %

UK RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Page 14: UK: Energy Outlook

RE Combustion 32 %

RE Clean 68 %

UK RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Page 15: UK: Energy Outlook

Tera

wat

thou

rs

0

50

100

150

200

Fossil RE Combustion Clean

Nat gas

Oil

Coal

Wind+solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind+solar

Hydro

Biomass

Nat gas

Oil

Coal

UK electricity mix 2015 by type TWhs

Page 16: UK: Energy Outlook

UK clean electricity 2001-2014G

Whs

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nuclear Clean RE

Page 17: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity net imports 2001-2014Te

raw

atth

ours

ann

ually

0

5,5

11

16,5

22

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10,4

8,4

2,2

7,58,3

7,5

5,2

11,0

2,9 2,7

6,2

11,9

14,4

20,5

Net imports

Page 18: UK: Energy Outlook

UK Emissions Overview

Page 19: UK: Energy Outlook

According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:

Coal

Natural gas

Biomass

Large-scale solar

Household solar PV

Hydro

Off-shore wind

Nuclear

On-shore wind

0 225 450 675 900

11

12

12

24

41

48

230

490

820

gCO2-eqv/kWh

Page 20: UK: Energy Outlook

According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:

Coal

Natural gas

UK grid 2015

Biomass

Large-scale solar

Household solar PV

Hydro

Off-shore wind

Nuclear

On-shore wind

0 225 450 675 900

11121224

4148

230430

490820

gCO2-eqv/kWh

Page 21: UK: Energy Outlook

UK grid average emissions gCO2-eqv/kWh between 2001-2013

Data: emissions UNFCCC v17, electricity production DUKES

gCO

2-eq

v/kW

h

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Grid average emissions have decreased around 6 % in 12 years, or 0.5 % / year.

Page 22: UK: Energy Outlook

UK total energy sector emissions annually between 2001-2013

Energy sector has decreased emissions by 17.6 % in 12 years

Data: UNFCCC v17

Mto

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

150

300

450

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 23: UK: Energy Outlook

UK electricity & heat sector emissions annually between 2001-2013

Electricity and heat sector has decreased

emissions by 13 % in 12 years

Data: UNFCCC v17

Mto

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

47,5

95

142,5

190

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 24: UK: Energy Outlook

UK Emissions and Nuclear

Note: historical data excludes 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that started between 1956 and 1971 were shut down between 1989 and 2015Note2: Future production data assumes a 0.75 capacity factor for all nuclear reactors

Page 25: UK: Energy Outlook

Emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with coal

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

750

1500

2250

3000

2 794

2 218

1 384

576809

2001-2015 2016-2035 2001-2035 1956-2015 1956-2035

Page 26: UK: Energy Outlook

Emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with natural gas

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

450

900

1350

1800

1 653

1 312

819

341478

2001-2015 2016-2035 2001-2035 1956-2015 1956-2035

Page 27: UK: Energy Outlook

Mto

n C

O2-

eqv

0

750

1500

2250

3000

Nuclear emissions Natural gas emissions Coal emissions

2001-2015 2016-2035 2001-2035 1956-2015 1956-2035

Emissions comparison if same amount of energy was produced with nuclear, natural gas or coal

Energy production scenario is historical and projected nuclear production

Page 28: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with coal and natural gas 2001-2015

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

17,5

35

52,5

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Coal Natural gas

Page 29: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with coal 2001-2015

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

17,5

35

52,5

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 30: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with natural gas 2001-2015

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 31: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with coal and natural gas 2001-2035

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

17,5

35

52,5

70

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Coal Natural gas

Page 32: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by UK nuclear compared with coal 2001-2035

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

17,5

35

52,5

70

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Page 33: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual emissions prevented by current UK nuclear compared with natural gas 2001-2035M

illion

tons

CO

2-eq

v / y

ear

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Page 34: UK: Energy Outlook

Nuclear power and health consequences in UK

Note: historical data excludes 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that started between 1956 and 1971 were shut down between 1989 and 2015Note2: Future production data assumes a 0.75 capacity factor for all nuclear reactors

Page 35: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual mortality prevented by nuclear compared to burning coal 2001 - 2015

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

/ yea

r

0

750

1500

2250

3000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historical Low High

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 36: UK: Energy Outlook

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2001 - 2015 compared to burning coal

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

7500

15000

22500

30000

10 934

4 930

28 617

Historical rate Low estimate High estimate

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 37: UK: Energy Outlook

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2001 - 2015 compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

7500

15000

22500

30000

4 000

10 934

4 930

28 617

Historical rate Low estimateHigh estimate Chernobyl all time

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 38: UK: Energy Outlook

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 1956 - 2015 compared to burning coal

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

29 999

13 525

78 514

Historical rate Low estimate High estimate

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 39: UK: Energy Outlook

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 1956 - 2015 compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

4 000

29 999

13 525

78 514

Historical rate Low estimateHigh estimate Chernobyl all time

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 40: UK: Energy Outlook

Annual mortality prevented by UK current nuclear fleet compared to burning coal 2016 - 2035

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

/ yea

r

0

450

900

1350

1800

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

Historical Low High

Page 41: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

5500

11000

16500

22000

7 784

3 509

20 372

Historical Low High

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2016 - 2035 compared to burning coal

Page 42: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

5500

11000

16500

22000

4 000

7 784

3 509

20 372

Historical Low High Chernobyl all time

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2016 - 2035 compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

Page 43: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

18 718

8 439

48 989

Historical Low High

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2001 - 2035 compared to burning coal

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 44: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

4 000

18 718

8 439

48 989

Historical Low High Chernobyl all time

Total mortality prevented with UK nuclear between 2001 - 2035 compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 45: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

37 782

17 034

98 886

Historical Low High

Total mortality prevented with current UK nuclear fleet lifetime compared to burning coal

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015

Page 46: UK: Energy Outlook

Mor

talit

y pr

even

ted

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

4 000

37 782

17 034

98 886

Historical Low High Chernobyl all time

Total mortality prevented with current UK nuclear fleet lifetime compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

* excluding 26 mainly smaller Magnox reactors that were shut down between 1989 and 2015