UK Official Statistics on Migration: Current Methods & Future Plans

Emma WrightOffice for National Statistics, UK

Outline

• Methodology to estimate Total International Migration (TIM) to and from the UK

• Improvements planned

• Future work:– Task Force on Migration Statistics

– Short-term migration

Methodology to estimate TIM (1)

IPS Migrants

Methodology to estimate TIM (2)

Migrant Switchers

IPS Migrants

Methodology to estimate TIM (3)

Migrant Switchers

IPS Migrants

Visitor Switchers

Methodology to estimate TIM (4)

Migrant Switchers

IPS Migrants

Visitor Switchers

Asylum Seekers

Methodology to estimate TIM (5)

Migrant Switchers

IPS Migrants

Visitor Switchers

Asylum Seekers

Irish Flows

TotalInternationalMigration(TIM)

Planned Methodology Improvements

• Increased IPS sample size for emigrants.

• Improved estimation of visitor switchers and migrant switchers.

• Improved geographical distribution of immigrants within the UK.

TIM estimates to/from the UK 1995-2005

thousands

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Inflow

Outflow

Net flow = Inflow - Outflow

Context for the future

• Large changes in scale and nature of migration flows to and from UK over the last decade.

• Net international migration now key driver of population growth.

• Traditional long-term migration streams continuing, but also new forms of migration:

– international commuters– temporary migrant workers from new EU Accession

countries

Task Force on Migration Statistics

Cross-Government Taskforce

Objectives:

• To identify existing and new user requirements

• To recommend ways of strengthening migration statistics to meet these user needs

• To recommend how appropriate methods can be developed to use data sources in combination

Task Force considerations

• Port and Household surveys

• Administrative data sources

• Linking data sources

• Future sources - ‘e-Borders’

• Short-term migrants

Short-term migrants

People living in the UK for less than 12 months:

• make demands on local services, but are not included in the population statistics used to apportion funding

• may participate in the UK labour force so impact on labour supply and contribute to UK economy

• form an increasingly significant sector of the UK consumer base

People out of the UK for less than 12 months:

• may not be using services or contributing to the UK economy

Short-term migrants: Definition

UN recommended definition of a short-term migrant:

“A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least three months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the

movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage.”

Short-term migrants: Data sources

IPS• Both inflows & outflows; detailed information on length of stay,

broad coverage, BUT not robust at local level or for detailed breakdowns.

LFS• Inflows only, does not cover communal establishments, may

exclude shorter stays, not robust for detailed breakdowns

Administrative data• Inflows only, little or no information on length of stay, only cover

specific migrant types, BUT can provide information at local levels.

Estimating short-term migrants: Issues

• Information collected at beginning or end of short-term migration event?

• Switching – changing intentions, and overlap with long-term migration estimates.

• Reason for short-term migration

• Timing & Seasonality

Any questions?