uk trading & value indicator 20120123

8/3/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120123

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23 January 2012

UK Trading &Value

Indicator


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Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 23 January 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 23 January 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................. Over Valued 16Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16Chemicals ........................................................ Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Under Valued 17Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18Health .............................................................. Over Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22Transport ........................................................ Over Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


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IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an

increasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend


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Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cashflow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

Target as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised bymanagement cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


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Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

5,728.6

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.3

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M 5.7; 3M 6.4; 12M -2.4 1M 5.6; 3M 21.2; 12M -14.4

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.5

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

11.1

65.6

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M -5.4; 3M -3.3; 12M 15.6


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FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

10,825.9

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

16.4

19.3

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 9.7; 3M 7.1; 12M -5.9 1M 10.1; 3M 10.9; 12M -12.2

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.9

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

7.9

82.4

82.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -8.5; 3M -1.7; 12M 31.1


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FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,954.8

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

7.4

8.5

11.0

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 6.2; 3M 6.4; 12M -3.1 1M 6.2; 3M 20.2; 12M -14.5

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.4

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

10.4

69.3

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M -5.8; 3M -3.1; 12M 17.6


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FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

373.8

657.8

754.3

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL- SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

101.2

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 11.0; 3M 7.0; 12M -20.3 1M 9.5; 3M 35.1; 12M -169.5

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

6.9

89.9

89.9

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M -11.0; 3M -11.0; 12M 20.4


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S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,315.4

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.9

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 6.0; 3M 8.2; 12M 2.7 1M 5.5; 3M 1.8; 12M -16.7

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

11.2

76.8

76.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -4.8; 3M -1.8; 12M 17.3


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Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

66.7

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


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Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


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US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.10

0.18

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 42.9; 3M 42.9; 12M -44.4

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

1,000.0

555.6

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.37

1.53

1.55

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M -1.1; 3M -1.0; 12M -2.0

/

1.02

1.06

1.11

1.20

1.21

1.24

1.53

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 0.4; 3M 5.0; 12M 1.7


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.29

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -1.1; 3M -6.1; 12M -4.0

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

119.7

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M -1.8; 3M -0.7; 12M -8.9


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Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

39.1

95.9

109.5

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 1.34; 3M -1.03; 12M 14.06


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 313.70 248.10 356.50 Neutral Strong Buy 601 0.63

CHEMRING GROUP 448.70 368.80 736.50 Neutral Neutral 476 0.53

COBHAM 194.40 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 236 0.94

MEGGITT 370.60 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 334 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 735.50 552.19 769.00 Neutral Sell 587 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 989.50 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 1017 0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1535.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1231 0.59

UMECO 355.50 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 360 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 211.70 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 167 1.93

INCHCAPE 344.00 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 290 1.40

LOOKERS 50.00 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 65 1.34

PENDRAGON 8.25 6.80 19.71 Neutral Neutral 9 1.08

Banks Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BARCLAYS 222.65 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 89 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 542.30 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 881 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 32.65 21.84 69.30 Sell Strong Buy 152 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 27.44 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -23 1.23

STANDARD CHARTERED 1565.00 1169.50 1712.50 Neutral Sell 1400 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1244.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1244 0.42

DIAGEO 1393.00 1112.00 1428.00 Neutral Sell 1263 0.55

SABMILLER 2329.50 1979.00 2354.50 Neutral Buy 2736 0.97

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1937.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1637 1.06

ELEMENTIS 150.40 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 153 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2066.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1723 1.43

VICTREX 1252.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Sell 1163 1.20

YULE CATTO 200.00 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 305 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 121.00 109.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 199 1.01


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 287.40 214.60 357.30 Neutral Sell 265 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 111.60 67.50 119.00 Neutral Sell 57 1.39

BELLWAY 747.00 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 644 1.00

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1280.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Neutral 1327 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 466.50 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 192 1.07

CARILLION 328.00 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 443 1.10

CLARKE (T) 39.25 35.50 105.00 Neutral Strong Buy 189 0.84COSTAIN GROUP 196.00 180.00 265.00 Neutral Strong Buy 755 0.58

GALLIFORD TRY 476.50 307.50 530.00 Neutral Neutral 515 1.02

KELLER 342.00 239.25 675.50 Neutral Neutral 339 1.26

KIER GROUP 1364.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3016 1.05

LOW & BONAR 45.25 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 56 1.04

MARSHALLS 96.38 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 60 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 640.00 510.00 720.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1323 0.88

PERSIMMON 521.00 374.00 522.50 Neutral Buy 623 1.05

REDROW 120.80 103.50 136.20 Neutral Sell 81 0.95

SIG 105.10 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 4 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 42.00 28.71 43.78 Sell Sell 12 1.48

TRAVIS PERKINS 883.50 715.00 1090.00 Neutral Buy 1025 1.85

WOLSELEY 2238.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1632 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 782.50 540.00 847.00 Neutral Sell 407 0.73

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 580.00 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 574 1.15

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 119.00 86.75 146.00 Sell Buy 141 1.30

INVENSYS 200.60 180.90 357.80 Neutral Strong Buy 341 1.51

LAIRD 163.50 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 169 2.20

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 922.00 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 726 0.97

RENISHAW 1092.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1686 1.22

SPECTRIS 1522.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 1094 1.37

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.15 0.14 0.34 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.65

TT ELECTRONICS 171.50 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 222 1.55

XAAR 255.00 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 117 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 82.50 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 291 1.31

BODYCOTE 304.40 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 345 1.56

CASTINGS 260.00 250.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 493 0.96

COOKSON GROUP 570.50 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 749 2.26

FENNER 444.00 280.00 462.00 Neutral Sell 275 1.39

HALMA 355.40 306.30 429.60 Sell Neutral 349 0.74

HILL & SMITH 283.00 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 564 1.36

IMI 877.50 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1290 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 7.87 7.37 12.00 Neutral Neutral 8 0.85

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 303.80 224.00 357.10 Neutral Neutral 329 1.73

ROTORK 1908.00 1501.00 1979.00 Neutral Sell 1672 1.01

SENIOR 185.30 132.60 190.60 Neutral Neutral 178 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 182.50 150.00 295.75 Neutral Sell 168 1.03

SPIRAX-SARCO 1962.00 1649.00 2063.00 Sell Neutral 2132 0.84

VITEC GROUP 556.50 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 711 1.51

WEIR GROUP 1954.00 1375.00 2218.00 Neutral Sell 767 1.41


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 511.00 445.00 550.50 Neutral Sell 436 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 293.80 264.00 328.00 Neutral Buy 331 0.50

SAINSBURY (J) 290.60 263.50 391.20 Neutral Strong Buy 495 0.65

TESCO 329.00 312.35 420.05 Neutral Buy 391 0.81

THORNTONS 11.50 9.50 100.75 Neutral Buy 14 0.80

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1154.00 940.00 1159.00 Neutral Sell 550 0.59

CRANSWICK 748.00 588.50 862.00 Neutral Neutral 725 0.58

DAIRY CREST 321.80 315.00 409.70 Neutral Buy 354 0.96

DEVRO 264.50 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 412 0.31

PREMIER FOODS 7.70 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -4 1.43

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 388.25 233.25 388.25 Neutral Buy 513 0.38

TATE & LYLE 675.00 520.00 720.50 Neutral Sell 397 0.65

UNILEVER (UK) 2047.00 1793.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1818 0.63

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 21.13 16.00 25.25 Neutral Neutral 23 0.73

BROWN (N) GROUP 230.80 227.00 304.50 Neutral Sell 198 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1355.00 1030.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 442 1.34

CARPETRIGHT 560.50 375.00 792.50 Sell Sell 154 0.98

CLINTON CARDS 10.63 7.50 27.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 13.53 9.36 22.31 Neutral Strong Buy 23 1.40

FINDEL 3.53 2.20 10.72 Neutral Sell 1 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 45.00 36.00 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 85 0.91

GAME GROUP 5.25 3.26 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 137 0.91

HALFORDS GROUP 313.00 269.50 416.00 Neutral Neutral 324 0.62

JJB SPORTS 12.25 5.20 52.70 Sell Strong Buy 1113 0.86

JD SPORTS FASHION 707.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 1009 0.46KESA ELECTRICALS 71.50 60.20 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 235 1.27

KINGFISHER 260.30 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 234 0.98

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 334.70 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 305 0.73

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 34.75 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 19 1.02

MOTHERCARE 203.00 127.30 542.00 Sell Buy 278 0.51

NEXT 2657.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1771 0.81

TED BAKER 740.50 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 380 0.52

TOPPS TILES 32.25 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 22 1.30

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 525.50 498.00 590.00 Neutral Sell 476 0.39CORIN GROUP 44.00 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 41 0.70

SMITH & NEPHEW 608.50 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 618 0.39

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.50 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 31 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 520.00 347.50 547.50 Neutral Sell 466 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 274.00 233.25 345.00 Neutral Buy 344 0.91

HORNBY 125.00 105.00 145.00 Neutral Buy 143 0.70


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 575.50 464.00 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1496 0.77

CSR 226.00 154.10 447.00 Sell Strong Buy 6191 1.13

FILTRONIC 24.00 14.50 41.50 Sell Sell -236 0.59

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 571.00 296.90 575.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1305 0.96

PSION 46.50 43.88 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2831 1.19

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 125.40 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1370 1.01

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 161.00 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 25 1.02

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 888.50 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 360 0.50

AMLIN 350.50 270.60 427.00 Sell Strong Buy 2390 0.45

BEAZLEY 138.90 109.60 139.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1247 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 411.30 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 67 0.32

HISCOX 390.10 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2368 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 695.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1878 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 108.20 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1002 0.45

NOVAE GROUP 339.00 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2281 0.49

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 44.00 26.25 44.00 Neutral Sell 18 0.76

CARNIVAL 1989.00 1742.00 3000.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3892 1.13

ENTERPRISE INNS 35.50 26.50 109.50 Sell Strong Buy 106 1.69

TUI TRAVEL 196.80 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 606 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 700.00 590.00 752.00 Neutral Buy 772 0.45

GREENE KING 512.00 410.00 520.50 Neutral Strong Buy 784 0.87

LADBROKES 139.90 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 249 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1317.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 897 1.29

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 438.80 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 545 1.39

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 270.50 215.60 357.00 Sell Sell 112 1.02BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 159.30 100.60 204.00 Neutral Sell 142 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 10.75 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -171 1.28

RANK GROUP 128.00 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 205 0.97

RESTAURANT GROUP 297.10 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 358 0.88

WETHERSPOON (JD) 414.80 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 750 0.75

WHITBREAD 1663.00 1409.00 1863.00 Neutral Buy 1930 1.04

WILLIAM HILL 225.00 176.80 244.10 Neutral Buy 322 0.93

MARSTON'S 94.60 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 183 1.24

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 350.90 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22CHESNARA 181.00 161.75 264.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.60

LEGAL & GENERAL 116.90 89.80 123.80 Sell Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 147.10 98.05 147.10 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 694.00 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 350.20 293.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79


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Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 152.00 116.17 159.08 Neutral Sell 87 1.30

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 105.25 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 120 0.48

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 671.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Neutral 650 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 34.63 32.50 73.00 Neutral Sell -57 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 435.10 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 555 1.08

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 689.50 522.50 736.00 Neutral Sell 639 1.04

INFORMA 388.80 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 310 1.50ITE GROUP 216.90 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 148 1.39

ITV 75.50 51.65 93.45 Neutral Neutral 77 1.49

JOHNSTON PRESS 5.94 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 59 1.45

PEARSON 1233.00 1013.00 1255.00 Neutral Sell 1044 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 54.88 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 85 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 253.00 132.75 292.00 Neutral Sell 144 0.37

THOMSON REUTERS 29.23 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 25 0.52

STV GROUP 102.00 76.25 168.00 Sell Neutral 109 0.77

ST.IVES 77.00 68.50 108.50 Neutral Strong Buy 214 1.31

TRINITY MIRROR 46.50 37.50 89.50 Neutral Strong Buy 455 1.58

UBM 542.50 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1610 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 84.00 81.75 183.00 Neutral Buy 107 0.86

WPP 745.00 578.00 846.50 Neutral Neutral 800 1.27

YELL GROUP 5.24 3.35 12.00 Neutral Strong Buy 44 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2660.00 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6614 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 282.40 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 377 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1338.00 900.50 1524.00 Neutral Sell 1110 1.38

BHP BILLITON 2125.50 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4741 1.40

LONMIN 1032.00 941.00 1880.00 Neutral Sell 861 1.90

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 7055.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1909 0.30

RIO TINTO 3684.50 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Buy 5445 1.41

UK COAL 29.50 28.50 50.25 Neutral Sell -76 1.05

VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5500 2.05

XSTRATA 1078.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1221 1.76

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1457.00 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1878 0.70

BP 467.45 363.20 497.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1246 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 290.60 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 338 1.34

FORTUNE OIL 12.00 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 23 0.87

HUNTING 822.50 530.00 833.00 Neutral Buy 920 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 147.00 120.50 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 359 1.35

MELROSE RESOURC ES 115.75 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 623 1.12

PREMIER OIL 430.10 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 516 1.34

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2253.50 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6329 0.94

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2329.50 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6390 0.95

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 294.80 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 195 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1361.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 453 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 658.50 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 759 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 109.50 109.50 152.13 Neutral Sell 95 0.85

PZ CUSSONS 316.00 308.70 387.90 Neutral Buy 351 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3410.00 3015.00 3578.00 Neutral Sell 3208 0.32


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Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.60 3.13 5.50 Buy Strong Buy 11 0.92

ASTRAZENECA 3037.50 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10856 0.46

BTG 317.60 210.10 331.30 Neutral Sell 124 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 530.00 433.00 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1031 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1438.50 1127.50 1497.00 Neutral Neutral 1501 0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.12 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -1 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 9.50 6.40 9.75 Neutral Sell -2 0.89SHIRE 2121.00 1634.00 2243.00 Neutral Sell 1426 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 34.50 31.50 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 303 0.71

VERNALIS 19.88 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -15 0.81

Software & Computer Services Under Valued


TIMEWEAVE 24.00 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 45 0.73

ANITE 98.00 57.75 98.00 Neutral Sell 57 0.82

AVEVA GROUP 1589.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 915 1.44

COMPUTACENTER 379.30 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 868 1.07

KOFAX 261.50 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 261 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.00 15.25 23.00 Neutral Sell 17 0.91LOGICA 79.60 58.95 147.20 Neutral Strong Buy 176 1.33

MIC RO FOC US INTL. 455.00 242.90 455.00 Neutral Sell 417 0.71

MISYS 310.00 214.90 420.20 Sell Buy 365 1.29

PHOENIX IT GROUP 175.00 154.75 290.00 Neutral Strong Buy 438 0.85

RM 66.00 41.50 175.00 Neutral Strong Buy 357 0.39

FIDESSA GROUP 1678.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Neutral 1607 0.79

SAGE GROUP 304.80 231.70 306.00 Neutral Neutral 301 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 233.80 167.80 240.00 Neutral Sell 98 1.07

BREWIN DOLPHIN 146.00 113.70 185.40 Neutral Neutral 140 0.70CAMELLIA 9525.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 17208 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 271.50 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 289 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 140.88 115.63 165.00 Neutral Buy 209 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 670.00 590.00 875.00 Neutral Sell 343 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 65.50 56.05 91.45 Neutral Buy 85 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.84 1.36 17.38 Neutral Buy 3 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 116.20 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 94 1.41

ICAP 335.70 311.60 559.00 Neutral Sell 312 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 278.60 197.90 354.70 Neutral Neutral 265 1.62

INVESTEC 380.00 318.40 522.00 Neutral Sell 259 1.53

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 880.00 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 739 1.15

MAN GROUP 121.20 104.50 311.00 Neutral Buy 179 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1122.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Neutral 1187 0.73

SCHRODERS 1461.00 1183.00 1906.00 Neutral Neutral 1607 1.30

SCHRODERS NV 1202.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1607 1.29


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Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 183.00 166.25 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 331 0.93

AGGREKO 2089.00 1394.48 2131.00 Neutral Sell 1218 1.18

AMEC 990.00 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1233 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 225.70 99.40 230.20 Neutral Sell 122 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 753.00 542.00 758.00 Neutral Sell 674 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 355.00 230.00 357.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1041 0.70

BUNZL 865.50 676.50 906.50 Neutral Buy 974 0.55UK MAIL GROUP 226.50 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 526 0.28

CAPITA 649.00 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 678 0.42

COMMUNISIS 27.25 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 93 0.72

COMPASS GROUP 613.50 512.50 619.50 Neutral Buy 705 0.75

BERENDSEN 450.00 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 682 1.03

DE LA RUE 954.00 667.00 962.50 Neutral Neutral 1016 #NA

DIGNITY 823.50 648.50 854.50 Neutral Buy 940 0.22

DIPLOMA 395.00 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 313 0.98

ELECTROCOMP. 216.00 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 360 0.99

FILTRONA 391.60 273.10 404.50 Neutral Neutral 416 1.13

G4S 271.40 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 374 0.60

HAYS 72.15 58.85 130.00 Neutral Strong Buy 138 0.95

HOMESERVE 310.00 218.50 532.00 Neutral Buy 455 0.67

INTERSERVE 310.00 239.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 765 1.40

INTERTEK GROUP 2135.00 1715.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1575 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 25.50 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 65 1.16

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 32.00 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 54 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 530.00 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1182 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 401.90 323.00 567.00 Sell Neutral 426 1.33

MITIE GROUP 265.50 195.90 271.00 Neutral Buy 389 0.60

MOUCHEL GROUP 7.55 4.75 154.75 Sell Sell -275 0.84

OFFICE2OFFICE 134.50 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 273 0.36

PAYPOINT 576.50 327.25 585.00 Neutral Buy 715 0.76

PREMIER FARNELL 205.90 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 342 1.18

REGUS 89.20 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 69 1.39

RENTOKIL INITIAL 75.00 58.20 104.70 Sell Sell 50 1.29

REXAM 378.50 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 509 0.87

RICARDO 361.75 314.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 527 0.83

ROBERT WALTERS 196.63 158.25 340.00 Neutral Strong Buy 340 1.18

RPC GROUP 388.30 231.50 388.30 Neutral Buy 429 0.81

RPS GROUP 205.80 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 285 1.55

SERCO GROUP 514.00 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 649 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 99.50 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 158 1.44

SPEEDY HIRE 25.00 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -7 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 61.75 36.25 61.75 Neutral Sell -278 0.54

TRIFAST 43.50 36.25 52.88 Sell Buy 61 0.86

VP 216.50 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 563 0.89

WYG 49.50 48.38 1200.00 Neutral Sell -8269 0.77

WSP GROUP 261.25 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 556 0.92

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 205.50 161.00 207.60 Neutral Buy 256 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 40.68 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 135 0.65

INMARSAT 403.60 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 355 0.52

KCOM GROUP 67.75 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 83 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 685.00 440.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 472 0.06

VODAFONE GROUP 177.05 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 186 0.65


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Transport Over Valued


BBA AVIATION 192.00 156.00 240.80 Neutral Sell 172 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 365.50 282.00 505.00 Neutral Strong Buy 670 0.90

CLARKSON 1133.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1584 0.81

EASYJET 422.50 301.00 422.50 Neutral Sell 383 0.76

FIRST GROUP 303.60 301.80 391.20 Buy Buy 438 1.10

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 498.50 440.50 574.00 Neutral Sell 350 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1320.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1820 0.97NATIONAL EXPRESS 224.20 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 191 1.30

NORTHGATE 217.00 190.90 346.70 Sell Strong Buy 382 1.34

STAGECOACH GROUP 278.50 199.97 281.20 Neutral Sell 212 0.90

WINCANTON 73.25 56.00 150.75 Neutral Strong Buy 173 0.86

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 283.30 278.80 345.80 Neutral Neutral 289 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 618.50 542.00 649.50 Neutral Buy 773 0.57

PENNON GROUP 693.00 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 616 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1532.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 1334 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 599.50 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 610 0.60


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uk trading & value indicator 20120123

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